SPORTS ADVISORS
North Carolina (20-16, 13-21 ATS) vs. Dayton (24-12, 17-15-1 ATS)
The Tar Heels will try to become the first team in history to follow up a national championship with an NIT title when they battle Dayton in this winner-take-all contest at Madison Square Garden.
North Carolina survived a fourth straight NIT thriller in Tuesday’s semifinals, outlasting Rhode Island 69-68 in overtime as a one-point underdog. Deon Thompson recorded a double-double with 16 points and 13 rebounds, while Will Graves (14 points) and Tyler Zeller (13 points) also scored in double figures for Carolina. The Heels had a 60-45 rebounding edge, but were sloppy with the basketball, committing 18 turnovers, the final one occurring in the waning seconds while clinging to a one-point lead.
Dayton reached the NIT championship game for the first time since in 42 years by holding off Ole Miss 68-63 as a one-point favorite Tuesday. Chris Johnson drained five critical free throws down the stretch and finished with a game-high 22 points, but both teams struggled to put the ball in the net all night (both shot 33.9 percent). However, the Flyers had a 43-34 rebounding advantage and made nine more free throws.
After going just 5-12 in the ACC season – winning consecutive games just once – the Tar Heels have now won four in a row (4-0 ATS) for the first time since starting the season 4-0. All four of North Carolina’s NIT victories have been close, as it preceded Tuesday’s triumph over Rhode Island with an eight-point win over William & Mary, a two-point road victory at Mississippi State and a five-point road win at UAB.
The Flyers were the preseason pick to win the Atlantic 10 title, but they stumbled down the stretch of the conference season, losing six of their final nine games (1-7-1 ATS). However, they’ve taken advantage of a second season in the NIT, posting four impressive victories by an average of 11.5 points per game, also knocking off Illinois State (63-42 at home), Cincinnati (81-66 on the road) and Illinois (77-71 on the road). Dayton has cashed in all four NIT wins.
These teams last met on New Year’s Eve 2006 in North Carolina, and the Tar Heels rolled 81-51, cashing as a 22-point favorite.
Despite the consecutive wins over Cincinnati, Illinois and Ole Miss, Dayton is still just 8-10 away from home this year (8-9-1 ATS), including 3-3 in neutral-site games (2-4 ATS). Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are 6-11 outside of Chapel Hill, N.C. (7-10 ATS), including 2-3 SU and ATS at neutral venues. However, they’re 2-1 SU and ATS at Madison Square Garden this year.
North Carolina is on its first 3-0 ATS streak of the season, and the Heels are on additional pointspread surges of 46-19 in non-conference play, 4-1 against Atlantic 10 foes and 8-3 at neutral sites. However, they’re also on ATS nosedives of 8-16 overall, 4-10 as an underdog, 2-8 as a pup of less than seven points and 4-8 after a SU win.
The Flyers have now cashed in four straight games overall and eight consecutive non-conference contests, and they’re 5-1-1 ATS in their last six after a spread-cover and 4-0 ATS in their last four against winning teams. However, they’ve failed to cover in four of five at neutral sites and they’re 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 on Thursday.
Both of Tuesday’s semifinal contests stayed under the total. Also, the Tar Heels are on “under” runs of 20-7 overall, 4-0 against the Atlantic 10, 5-1 as an underdog, 6-1 as a pup of less than seven points, 6-2 as a neutral-site pup, 7-1 after a SU win and 14-3 after a spread-cover, while Dayton has stayed low in eight of 10 non-conference contests. However, the Flyers remain on over runs of 5-2 overall and 5-2 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
Orlando (52-22, 39-33-2 ATS) at Dallas (50-25, 32-42-1 ATS)
Two teams looking to solidify their playoff positioning square off inside the American Airlines Center, where the Magic open a two-game Texas trip against the Mavericks.
Orlando has won two straight (0-1-1 ATS) and five of six overall (3-2-1 ATS) as it arrives in Texas for consecutive contests against the Mavs and Spurs. The Magic have been off since a 103-97 home win over the Nuggets on Sunday, pushing as six-point favorites. They saw a three-game SU and ATS road winning streak halted in their most recent roadie, falling 86-84 at Atlanta as a one-point pup.
Dallas has rattled off three consecutive wins (SU and ATS), including Wednesday’s 106-102 come-from-behind overtime win in Memphis, cashing as a 1½-point favorite after trailing by 13 points late in the fourth quarter. The Mavs scored a 109-93 win over Denver on Monday in their most recent home game, easily covering as five-point favorites. Still, even though they are 26-11 at home this season, the Mavericks are a horrendous 9-27-1 ATS.
In this series, Dallas has taken two in a row (SU and ATS) and six of the last seven (4-3 ATS), including a 95-85 win in Orlando on Feb. 19 as a seven-point underdog. The road team has won and cashed in each of the last four series clashes and is 10-1 ATS in the last 11, with Orlando cashing in five straight trips to Dallas.
The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after getting three or more days off, but they are on ATS skids of 3-7 on Thursday and 3-8 against Southwest Division squads. Dallas in 4-1 ATS in its last five contests on the second night of a back-to-back, but otherwise is on ATS slides of 5-26-1 at home, 0-4 against Eastern Conference teams and 2-6 at home against teams with winning road marks.
Dallas has topped the total in four straight after getting three or more days off, but it is on “under” streaks of 35-16-1 overall, 15-6 on Thursdays, 7-2 against Southwest Division teams and 35-15-1 against the Western Conference. Dallas has stayed below the posted number in eight of nine Thursday contests and four of five overall.
Finally, the over has cashed in eight of the last Magic-Mavericks battles overall, and the over is 5-0-1 in the last six matchups in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Portland (46-29, 41-32-2 ATS) at Denver (48-27, 31-38-6 ATS)
The surging Trail Blazers shoot for their fifth straight win as they trek to the Pepsi Center to take on the fading Nuggets.
Portland ran its SU and ATS winning streaks to four in a row with Wednesday’s 118-90 home win over the Knicks, cashing as an 11-point favorite. The Blazers have also won four of five on the highway (3-1-1 ATS), including back-to-back wins Saturday and Sunday at New Orleans and Oklahoma City, respectively. The Blazers have held their opponents to 98 points or less in seven of their last eight contests (6-1-1 ATS).
Denver finished a disastrous road trip at 1-4 (0-4-1 ATS) with Monday’s 109-93 loss in Dallas, coming nowhere near cashing as five-point ‘dogs. The Nuggets have dropped five of their last six games and gone 0-8-1 ATS in the last nine. The high-flying squad has only reached triple digits once in its last eight games, and that was a 109-104 loss in New York as seven-point favorites.
Denver has taken two of the three season clashes in this divisional rivalry (SU and ATS), including a 118-106 home win on March 7, cashing as a seven-point favorite. The host has won and covered in six of the last seven meetings going back to 2008, including three straight wins and covers by the Nuggets. In fact, Denver has dominated this series lately, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Colorado and 25-10-1 in the last 36 clashes overall.
Portland is on ATS surges of 4-0-1 overall, 3-0-1 on the road, 7-3-1 as a road ‘dog and 39-17 on the second night of a back-to-back. Denver has cashed in its last six home games against teams with a winning road record, but they are on ATS skids of 0-6 as a favorite, 1-4 at home (all as a favorite) and 0-4-1 against teams with winning records.
The Blazers have topped the total in seven of nine on the road, nine of 13 on the second night of a back-to-back and 12 of 16 on the road against teams with a winning home record, but they are on “under” streaks of 7-2 as an underdog and 5-2 against teams with winning records. The Nuggets are on “under” runs of 7-1 overall, 5-0 as favorites and 5-2 against winning teams.
In this series, the under has hit in five of the last seven meetings overall, but the over is 12-5 in the last 17 played in Denver.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
DUNKEL INDEX
Portland at Denver
The Blazers look to take advantage of a Denver team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite. Portland is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Nuggets favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Portland (+4 1/2)
Game 701-702: Orlando at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 124.113; Dallas 123.763
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 1; 206
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 703-704: Portland at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 121.430; Denver 122.527
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 1; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 4 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+4 1/2); Under
NCAAB
North Carolina vs. Dayton
The Flyers look to take advantage of a North Carolina team that is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog from 1 to 6 1/2 points. Dayton is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-2 1/2)
Game 705-706: North Carolina vs. Dayton
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 63.098; Dayton 68.906
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 6
Vegas Line: Dayton by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-2 1/2)
NHL
St. Louis at Nashville
The Predators look to bounce back from their 2-0 loss to LA and build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Nashville is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Predators favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-140)
Game 1-2: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 10.948; Washington 11.975
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-280); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-280); Under
Game 3-4: Florida at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.324; Boston 10.926
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-220); 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+190); Over
Game 5-6: Buffalo at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.573; Toronto 11.869
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 7-8: Philadelphia at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.621; NY Islanders 12.351
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+110); Under
Game 9-10: Carolina at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.398; Ottawa 12.876
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-180); Over
Game 11-12: Columbus at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 12.618; Detroit 12.370
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-300); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+250); Under
Game 13-14: St. Louis at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 10.923; Nashville 11.867
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-140); Over
Game 15-16: Vancouver at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.153; Los Angeles 12.096
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Craig Trapp
North Carolina vs. Dayton
Play: Over 137
The key here will be a high scoring first half as they total around 70-75 pts for the first half. Both teams played a lower scoring semi final but much of that was due to bad shooting early because of the layoff. Also a factor in the semi's was the turnover as both were above their season average. Today they will both shoot much better, and take better care of the rock pushing this over fairly easily.
Rob Vinciletti
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Under 201.5
This game is nationally televised on TNT. In this series 7 of the last 11 have played under the total and this one should be much lower scoring than the last game these two played here. Portland has played under 11 of 14 times on the road when the posted total is 200 to 205 and Denver has had real problems scoring of late. Look for this one to play under the posted 201.5 total tonight.
BIG AL
Portland @ Denver
PICK: Denver -4.5
This is very much a contrarian play, as Denver comes into tonight's game at the Pepsi Center "ice-cold," as it has failed to cover in nine straight games. But six of those have come on the road, and Denver is still a very strong 18-3 over its last 21 home games, and one of those wins was over this Portland club on March 7. Denver won that game 118-106, and shot 59% while it held the Blazers to 43% field goal shooting. And we get a great benefit from Denver's recent short-term performance: the line on this game is much more favorable than the 7 points which Denver was favored by (and covered) 3 1-2 weeks ago. Finally, it's worth noting that since 1991, in the regular season, home teams off a loss of 15+ points are 69% ATS vs. conference foes off a win of 15+ points, provided our home team's win percentage ranges from .550 to .715, and it is matched up against a .610 (or better) foe. With Denver in off a 109-93 loss at Dallas, and Portland in off a 28-point blowout of New York, we'll fade the Trail Blazers tonight. Take Denver.
Jim Feist
Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Detroit Red Wings
Play: Under 5½
Detroit's strong defense meets a Columbus team that has a poor offense. The Red Wings have allowed a team to score more than 3 goals in only one of their last 10 games. Defense has been the driving force in their sizzling 9-1 run. The last two meetings between these teams sailed way under the total in 1-0 and 2-1 games. Don't look for much scoring in this one; Play the Red Wings/Columbus Blue Jackets Under the total.
Tom Freese
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers
Denver is led in scoring by forward Carmelo Anthony and his 28.5 points a game. Point guard Chauncey Billups scores 19.7 points a game. Guard J.R. Smith scores 15.4 points a game. Center Nene Hilario scores 13.9 points and 7.8 rebounds a game. Power forward Kenyon Martin scores 11.8 points and 9.6 rebounds a game. The Nuggets score 106.9 points a game and they allow 102.6 points a game. Denver is 0-8-1 ATS their last 9 games overall and they are they are 0-6 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. Portland is led in scoring by guard Brandon Roy and his 22 points a game. Power forward La Marcus Aldridge scores 17.5 points and 8 rebounds a game. Point Guard Ander Miller scores 13.9 points a game. Forward Nicolas Batum scores 10.2 points a game. Forward Martell Webster scores 9.4 points a game.. The Trailblazers score 98.3 points a game and they allow 94.7 points a game. Portland is 7-3-1 ATS their last 11 games overall and they are 39-17 ATS their last 56 games when playing with no rest. PLAY ON PORTLAND +
VEGAS EXPERTS
North Carolina at Dayton
The North Carolina Tar Heels and Dayton Fliers are battling it out for the NIT Championship tonight at Madison Square Garden. Both of the Semifinal games played at MSG stayed Under the number by a combined 30 points. Also note that UNC has gone Under the total in 10 of their 11 games following a cover and have also gone Under in 11 of their 15 games this season as an underdog. The last time these two played one another the total stayed Under the number by 11 points. The Smart money is on the Under.
Play on: Under
EZWINNERS
Dallas Mavericks +2
Dallas has had the better of this series recently as the Mavs have won five out of the last six meetings between these two teams. This time around the Mavs will be facing an Orlando team that is banged up and dealing with multiple injuries. The Magic have not been able to practice much this week due to these injuries and sickness. Forward Mickael Pietrus sprained his left ankle against Atlanta last Wednesday and has missed two games but should be back tonight. Forward Vince Carter is dealing with a sprained toe but should try to play in this game. Point guards Jameer Nelson (thumb), Anthony Johnson (flu-like symptoms) and Jason Williams (foot) have all not practiced. So the Mavs who are coming off of a solid win over Denver in their last game will get to face an Orlando team that is at less than 100%. The Mavs have won eight out of the last ten meetings between these two teams and I expect that trend to continue in impressive fashion. Take the points.
James Patrick Sports
Jackets vs. Red Wings
NHL action on the ice has the Blue Jackets making the trip up I-75 to Motown and take on the Red Wings in "Hockey Town". Columbus can't get it done very often when they face Detroit with a (15-42-1) mark in the past (58) meetings which includes a (6-22) record in the Motor City. Big Game James Patrick's selection in Thursday NHL action is Detroit Red Wings.
Tony Karpinski
Orlando Magic vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Orlando Magic -1.5
The Mavs needed overtime to beat the Grizzlies on Wednesday, winning 106-102 and cashing as a 1 ½-point favorite. These guys have struggled cash at home all season, going just 9-27-1 ATS in front of the home fans.
Orlando has been off since Sunday when they whipped the Nuggets 103-97 and pushed as a six-point favorite. They have won two straight and five of six overall (3-2-1 ATS), plus they’ve taken three of their last four on the road. In this series, the road team has won and cashed in each of the last four and the road team has cashed in 10 of the last 11, including five straight trips the Magic have made to Dallas. The key is the matchup problem Dwight Howard presents in the middle against the Mavs. There is no force to keep him off the glass in Dallas. He’ll get his and open up the outside shooting game for his teammates.
I'm backing Orlando who is rested and had plenty of time to prepare for this one. PREDICTION: Orlando Wins 103-94
Rocketman
North Carolina vs. Dayton
Play: North Carolina +2.5
Any time North Carolina don't make the Big Dance it is a disappointing season for them. They decided to take on the NIT challenge this year and Roy Williams and company has made it to the Championship game here tonight. North Carolina is 54-5 SU and 35-17 ATS the past 3 years in non-conference games. North Carolina is 26-4 SU and 19-8 ATS last 3 years in tournament games. Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic 10. Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. Tar Heels are 46-19 ATS in their last 65 non-conference games. Flyers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 Thursday games. Flyers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. We'll recommend a small play on North Carolina tonight!
Ben Burns
Florida @ Boston
Pick: Florida +1.5
The Panthers come in on a losing streak and got blown out last night. However, while they've gone just 2-4 SU their last six games, only two of those games have resulted in losses of greater than one goal. The losing streak, combined with the fact that the Panthers played last night, has given us a reasonable price on the puck-line (+1.5) here.
Note that the Panthers were 2-0 in March, when playing the second of back to back games. They beat Tampa by a score of 5-2 and beat Philadelphia by a score of 7-4. In both cases, they had lost the previous night. I feel that they've got a good chance at being competitive again here.
The Bruins are off back to back games which were both decided by a single goal. They won their last game by a score of 1-0 and lost their previous one by a score of 3-2. They've now seen 12 of their last 19 games decided by one goal.
All three of this season's games have also been decided by a single goal. They had scores of 3-2, 2-1, and 1-0. Consider Florida at +1.5 goals.
Sean Higgs
North Carolina vs. Dayton
Play: Dayton -2.5
Flyers have been playing like the team that was suppose to win the A-10. Dayton has been doing it with defense all season and will ratch it up a notch here vs the big bad Tarheels. NC needed OT and a no-call on a tripping to end up here. Heels have been sloppy with the ball and will pay for it tonight against another A-10 team.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Trail Blazers/Nuggets UNDER 199.5
Plays Under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (DENVER) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 17-3 the last 5 seasons. Also, Plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in April games, are 70-34 the last 3 seasons. Bet the Under.