Jack Jones
Magic/Mavs UNDER 197.5
With Dallas playing an overtime game against Memphis last night, look for them to come out a bit sluggish. Their defensive effort will be there with what's at stake in the Western Conference standings as they are fighting for a #2 seed, but they will not be getting out and running offensively. This is going to be a half-court style game with the Mavs looking to post up Dirk Nowitzki, and the Magic looking to get Dwight Howard involved in half court sets.
These teams have already played once this season, with Dallas winning in Orlando 95-85 on February 19th for a combined score of 180 points. The UNDER is 4-1 in the Mavs' last 5 games overall, and the only game that went over was due to an overtime session against the Grizzlies last time out. The UNDER is 3-0 in Orlando's last 3 games. Both teams are really picking it up defensively as the season nears the end, as each is fighting for a higher seed in the playoffs. Orlando is allowing 93.3 PPG over their last 4 while the Mavs are allowing 96.4 PPG over their last 5 games, which includes an overtime contest. Bet the UNDER in a low-scoring affair.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on North Carolina/Dayton Under 139
System Play - plays Under on neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (DAYTON) after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, are 52-26 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 132.4 points scored in these contests. Dayton has been very strong defensively this season and UNC has struggled against good defensive teams. As a result, UNC is 7-1 UNDER versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game, after 15+ games, this season, and we are only seeing 134.9 points on average in these spots. Take the Under.
Black Widow
1* on Portland Trail Blazers +5
Denver just hasn't been the same team without George Karl on the sidelines. They don't have the same intensity, and they aren't able to make the proper adjustments to put themselves in a good position to win. As a result, Denver is 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, losing 6 of those games. Portland is 9-1 in their last 10 games overall, with their only loss coming by 6 points at Phoenix. This is a hot team that is hitting on all cylinders right now as we near the end of the season. They were allowed to rest their starters in the fourth quarter in last night's 118-90 win over the New York Knicks, so the Blazers will be fresh tonight even though this is the second of a back-to-back. Denver is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games this season. Portland is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after scoring 110 points or more this season. Portland is a superb 23-12 ATS in all road games this season. Better yet, the Blazers are 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days this season. So little rest has not effected this team one bit as they can go deep off the bench and they are in excellent shape. Take the Blazers and the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
BOSTON -½ -1.30 over Florida
The Bruins have been fighting it all season long but they’ve been extremely focused and determined over the past few games despite going just 2-2 over its last four. However, they’ve still won four of its last six and deserved to win all six. They were all over the Devils in their last game, a 1-0 OT victory. In the Bruins 3-2 loss to the Sabres they were the better team and it wasn’t close. In its 5-3 loss to the Lightning, they outshot Tampa 50-18 and the goaltender cost them that one when goaltending is rarely an issue for the Bruins. Boston has dominated play in six straight games and this is the game they need most of all. They’re well-rested, they deserve to make the playoffs and it’s hard to imagine these Panthers getting in the way. Florida played last night and was buried in Buffalo 6-2. The Panthers will play its third game in four nights and have sealed their fate with four consecutive losses. Over that stretch they’ve been outscored 16-5 and have did not score more than twice in any of those games. The Panthers have two wins over its last 13 road games and the only thing in question for them now is tee times. Rarely, will you see us laying pucks and juice but it’s warranted here. Play: Boston -½ -1.30 (Risking 2.6 units to win 2).
GoodFella
ORL -2 vs DAL
This is the 2nd meeting between these 2 teams this season--as the Mavs won AT Orlando (95-85) on Feb. 19th--as 7 pt dogs--in a game where the Magic not only shot a WELL BELOW season average of just (16%) from the 3-point line--but they also shot just (41%) for the game overall---and I obviously think they shoot much better tonight--as this team is loaded with guys who can stick the 3-ball. This is not a very good spot for the MAVS tonight--as they are not only playing thier 4th game in 6 days tonight--but they are also coming off Overtime win at Memphis last night--so they should be somewhat fatigued and I believe that will come into play in the 2nd half tonight. Orlando holds the league's 3rd best ROAD record (22-15) and they have shown the ability to beat the top teams on the road this season. Orlando has not played since Sunday--a 6 pt win over Denver--and the Magic have played just that one game in the last 7 days--so clearly they are rested--and the time off has allowed both Vince Carter and Pietrus to heal up some & they both practiced yesterday, with no reported issues & both will go tonight. I realize that the Mavs have "more to play for" and all that--but I'm not buying the Magic givnig anything but an all-out effort tonight, as the game is on National TV & we all know how these guys LOVE being on TNT or ESPN. Orlando plays better defense and they rebound the ball better--two key factors in any basketball game obviously--Just a tough SPOT for the Mavs tonight IMO--and I expect the more rested team, in Orlando to come into Dallas and walk away with another impressive road win tonight. I expect the Mavs to start out strong--feeding off the dramatic comeback overtime win over the Grizz last night--but I also see them struggling in the 2nd half--as the travel and 4 games in 6 days catches up to them. Lay the 2 points with ORLANDO tonight & look for a 6 point win.
Stan Lisowski
Denver
Nuggets are 11-1 straight up at home off of a loss this season. Host team in this series has won 6 of the past 7 matchups, with all wins by at least 8 points. Denver needs a victory as they are just a game and a half back of Utah for 1st place in the Northwest Division, 1 game back of Phoenix for the #4 seed in the conference, and have only a 2 game lead over Portland in playoff positioning.