Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday April, 19

Matt Fargo

Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs

After winning the opener against the Pirates, Arizona dropped the final two games of its series, both coming by a single run. The Diamondbacks are 7-5 on the year including 4-2 at home so they will be looking to get back to the where they started at home with a 4-0 record. The offense has not been producing which is no real surprise as this team is led by its pitching and that is the case again this season as they have a 3.51 team ERA and most impressively, a 2.21 ERA from the bullpen, fifth best in baseball. The Braves are one of the hottest teams in the league right now as they have won seven of their last eight games after starting the season 0-4. The first two wins came on the road but those were against lowly Houston while the rest of the streak came from a 5-1 homestand. This will be the first true road test of the season and it comes after a day game with no travel day in-between. Going back to last season, the Braves are just 2-10 in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record. Josh Collmenter had a very solid rookie season where he went just 10-10 but he posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP covering 24 starts and seven relief appearances. Things have not gotten off to such a great start this season however as his struggles in the Cactus League has carried over into the regular season. He allowed five runs in each of his first two starts, including one at home against the Giants which he struggled against last year too. Facing the Braves is a boost as he posted a 0.69 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in two starts last year. The Braves send Mike Minor to the hill and after a horrendous outing to open the season, he bounced back strong. Minor allowed six runs in five innings at New York before bouncing back at home against Milwaukee, allowing no earned runs on just two hits in 7.1 innings. He was pretty average last season, posting a 4.14 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 15 starts and those number went up to 5.14 and 1.55 respectively on the road so they fact he is favored in this spot is rather surprising.

Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +5

The Bucks may have been looking ahead to this revenger here with the Pacers as the Bucks lost just over a week ago at home to Indiana. Teas like Milwaukee this season that come in off a favored loss are 40-18 to the spread, including 11-2 the last 13 if their opponent is off back to back wins. All teams the last 2+ Years are 9-1 ats going into Indiana as a road dog with no rest. Look for the Bucks to keep this one close.

Ben Burns

Cleveland Indians @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners

After dropping Tuesday's opener, the Mariners bounced back with a victory yesterday, snapping the Indians' 4-game winning streak in the process. With their ace on the mound, the M's should have a strong chance of taking tonight's rubber match, too.

Hernandez took the loss last time out. However, that wasn't his fault as he allowed just two runs through seven complete innings. He's been very tough in two of three starts. Already averaging better than seven innings per outing, King Felix has 19 K's to just four walks. (Note that he's had to face Oakland in all three starts and that the familiarity of seeing him so regularly can help the hitters - Cleveland won't have that luxury.)

The M's have now won three of their last four home games. Even with the tough loss in this season's lone start here, the M's are still 12-7 in Hernandez's last 19 home starts.

Hernandez has made three career home starts against the Indians; all three were of the "quality" variety. The last two of those came in 2008 and 2010 and the M's won by a combined score of 11-2, Hernandez allowing just two earned runs in 14 innings. (He had 17 K's with only 3 walks, too.)

Overall, Hernandez has allowed three earned runs or less in nine straight starts against the Indians, going a minimum of six complete innings in each of those games.

Tomlin has only made one start but it wasn't a good one. He allowed seven hits, two of them home runs, in five innings. That resulted in four earned runs. Including one relief appearance, he's got an ugly 8.31 ERA and 1.609 WHIP. His last effort game in relief (he allowed 5 runs in 3 2/3 innings) which is noteworthy, as flip-flopping between the starting rotation and the bullpen can mess with a pitcher's routine.

Tomlin got rocked by the Mariners the last time he faced them, giving up 11 hits and six runs in 4 2/3 innings. That start came against Hernandez - Seattle won 9-2. Going for their first series win at Safeco against the Indians in nine years, consider backing Hernandez and the Mariners.

Freddy Wills

Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Houston Astros

I don't see a pitching advantage for Washington here as Bud Norris was pretty consistent home/away/night/day last year and I'm fine backing him with this type of juice at +149. He goes up against Edwin Jackson who is off a complete game and a great start but if you know Jackson you know he's not always consistent, but this has more to do with Bud Norris. Norris has a 3.46 ERA through 2 starts this year and he posted a 2.57 ERA vs. the Nationals last year and has two quality career starts in Washington. The Nationals have 63 career at bats and a .190 average and .515 OPS vs. Norris. Though the Nationals are off to a great start it's not like they are explosive offensively thus far as they rank 19th in OPS .697 vs. RHP as the Astros are 15th.

Jackson is off a complete game and I love fading a pitcher in the next game especially one that doesn't have a huge edge. That pitcher usually will come out a little flat and I think we can expect that on Thursday. After all Jackson has struggled in April in his career posting a 5.86 ERA last year and is due for a poor outing. He hasn't faced the Astros since 2009, but Carlos Lee is 3-7 with a HR. Both pitchers xFIP's were pretty even last year and the bullpens this year offer no significant advantage on either side. This line is way off in my opinion and I'll take the value with Norris.

Notable Hot Starters:
Jason Hammel (2GS 2.08 ERA, 2011 stats: 3.23 ERA April, 7IP 2ER vs. White Sox)
Bronson Arroyo (2GS 2.63 ERA, 2011 stats: 3.77 ERA day, 3.64 ERA April)
Edwin Jackson (2GS 2.57 ERA)
Henderson Alvarez (2GS 2.77 ERA, 2011 stats 4.30 ERA at home)
C.J. Wilson (2GS 1.38 ERA, A's 104AB w/ .173 average & .535 OPS vs. Wilson)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Cold starter has got to be Josh Collmenter who has a 12.86 ERA through two starts thus far. It's a huge set back and it will be interested to really see if he stays in this rotation. He does return home to face the Braves who got hot with their bats in the last two games against the Mets. Collmenter goes up against Minor who had a 5.14 ERA on the road last year. Arizona is not exactly friendly for pitchers but Collmenter managed a 3.30 ERA and 9-4 record at home he also has a 0.69 ERA vs. the Braves in 2 starts a year ago.

Notable Cold Starters:
Aaron Harant (2GS 5.67 ERA)
Randy Wolf (2GS 10.61 ERA)
Phil Hughes (2GS 9.00 ERA)
Josh Tomlin (2GS 8.31 ERA)

Dave Cokin

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Atlanta Braves

Josh Collmenter was blessed with some excellent fortune in 2011, but reality seems to be setting in this year. The Diamondbacks are shorthanded with outfield injuries and the Braves come in hot. I like Atlanta and Mike Minor to pick up the win here.

Jim Feist

Twins vs Yankees
Pick: Over

The new Yankees stadium is an offensive park, tough on pitchers, and a rejuvenated Minnesota offense comes to town, one with a healthy Mauer and Morneau. The over is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 road games and 13-6-1 over the total in their last 20 games vs. a right-handed starter. Erratic Phil Hughes (9.00 ERA) goes for New York and is struggling, allowing 17 base runners in 8 innings. The over is 13-3-1 in Hughes' last 17 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Play the Twins/Yankees over the total.

EZWINNERS

Seattle Mariners -153

Seattle's ace starting pitcher Felix Hernandez is coming off of his first loss of the season in his last start against the A's despite allowing only two earned runs. After facing Oakland in his first three starts, Hernandez should be looking forward to facing a new opponent and he has a career ERA of just 2.80 against these Indians. Cleveland's starting pitcher Josh Tomlin has an ERA of 8.31 so far this season and he struggled in middle relief against the Royals on Saturday. I expect the light hitting Mariners to give King Felix the run support he needs to pick up the win in this game. Play on Seattle.

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +147 over MIAMI (1st 5 innings)

Jeff Samardzija spent the entire 2011 season in the Cubs bullpen. He compiled strong surface stats in his long-middle relief role, making 75 appearances in 2011 and in 88 innings, posted an ERA of 2.97 but with an xERA of 3.97. The reason his xERA was a full run higher than his actual ERA was because of his poor control that saw him walk 50 batters in those 88 frames. But things started to change for him in the second half when his groundball ratio went form 36% to 44% and his walk ratio went way down. He’s carried that over to this season in which he’s walked just one batter in 14 innings while striking out 13. Samardjiza has a decent strikeout rate, good stuff, some momentum and now opportunity with a rotation that can be cracked. Ricky Nolasco has faced the Astros and the struggling Reds so far this year and his numbers have been average. In five of his seven years in the majors, Nolasco has posted an ERA over 4.50 and that’s a rather alarming number. He’s had some shining moments but he’s also been an underachiever and that makes him a high risk in this price category. Let’s leave the pens out again and base this wager on the starters. Play: Chicago +147 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).

DETROIT +106 over Texas

Yu Darvish came into the season with as much hype as Dice K did when he signed with the Red Sox a few years ago. That was a bust, as has been many of the so-called Japanese aces. In Yu Darvish's first two starts, he has yet to get through the sixth inning. Darvish has allowed seven runs in 11.1 innings with 17 hits, eight walks, nine strikeouts, a 2.12 WHIP, a BAA of .340 and has thrown 212 pitches. That came against Seattle and Minnesota. Now he’s favored in Detroit against the potent lineup of the Tigers and if he had trouble with those two weak offenses, one can only imagine what awaits him here. Adam Wilk will make his second start of the year for the home side after allowing just three hits in five frames against the White Sox in his season debut. He reached the majors in '11 after a strong season in Triple-A and got his feet wet at this level with five appearances out of the pen. He was the Tigers minor league pitcher of the year in '10 and has a career 2.61 ERA in the minors. Wilk works off his 86-92 mph fastball and though he may not have top-of-the-line velocity, he gets solid movement and locates it impeccably. He rarely beats himself with his pinpoint control and he has the moxie to succeed in the big leagues. Wilk also has an above average curveball and changeup. He may not have overpowering stuff and isn't likely to have a high strikeout rate but his command, poise and ability to change speeds makes him a pitcher worth watching. The Tigers getting a tag at home is going to be rare and usually warranted when a great pitcher is facing them. Darvish has a long way to that distinction. Play: Detroit +106 (Risking 2 units).

Toronto -109 over TAMPA BAY

Jeremy Hellickson was a big time prospect that went 13-10 last season with an ERA of 2.95 in his first full season in the majors. Don’t be fooled. This is a guy that outperformed his skills by a wider margin than most and it’s unlikely to reoccur this year. His xERA last year was 4.47. He was hugely aided by a 79% strand rate, which was one of the highest among qualifying starters in the league. His 35%/45% groundball/fly-ball ratio from last season is even worse this year at 34%/50%. In just 10 innings in his first two starts, Hellickson has already walked more batters (7) than he’s struck out (5). In terms of overvalued pitchers based on one year of success, you’ll be hard pressed to find one that offers up less than Hellickson. The Rays are hitting .232 against righties after 12 games and have just three wins in nine road games. They’ll face a good right-hander here in Wilson Alvarez. Alvarez has two no-decisions in two starts but was in a position to win them both. In 13 frames against Boston and Baltimore, he allowed just 10 hits and four runs for an ERA of 2.77 and a BAA of .208. The Jays are a cheap price today based on Hellickson’s perceived value in the marketplace. That’s something we can take advantage of. Play: Toronto -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

CHUCK O'BRIEN

Now, let's talk about what I'm hoping will be my sixth consecutive complimentary, and #14 of 19, as I'm playing the Indiana Pacers over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks tonight.

I mean, excuse me, but forget the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, L.A. Clippers, Chicago Bulls or Miami Heat - the five teams that it seems everyone is talking about - is there another team playing as well and as focused all of a sudden as the Pacers?

They're on the verge of locking up homecourt advantage in the first round, as they come into this game looking to win their seventh straight game. I don't see it being much of an issue against a team like Milwaukee, which has now lost four of five and has slipped 2-1/2 games out of the Eastern Conference's eighth spot.

Even though Boston just clinched the Atlantic Division on Wednesday, guaranteeing itself a top-four seed, the Pacers can wrap up the No. 3 seed and homecourt with one more win combined with an Atlanta loss. This would appear to be the game the Pacers will get their win, as they've won four straight in the series.

Milwaukee is in on ATS slides of 2-5 as a road pup, 1-5 against the Eastern Conference and 1-4 overall. On the flipside, the Pacers stroll in having covered six of their last seven after a previous point-spread victory and 4-0 overall.

2♦ INDIANA

SCOTT DELANEY

On the heels of an NBA winner on the Oklahoma City Thunder last night, and the Nashville Predators in the NHL Playoffs two nights back, I'm looking for No. 3 in a row with my freebies, as I take the Los Angeles Clippers plus the points against the Phoenix Suns.

After they won last night in the Mile High City, impressively against the Denver Nuggets, it's easy to see the Clippers are positioning themselves to make a serious run toward the NBA Finals after clinching their first playoff berth since 2006.

I think we're about to see a surge by the Clippers, so buckle up and get ready for the ride.

The key has to have been when the Clippers erased a nine-point, halftime deficit against the Oklahoma City Thunder - one of the top teams in the league and a contender to win the NBA title - earlier this week, and was clearly a statement that the Clippers were about to go on a strong run.

It's going to take this surge, quite possibly for them to win out, in order to win the Pacific Division, and complete the goal of stealing supremacy from the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Clippers are sitting in fourth place in the Western Conference, just one-half game behind the No. 3 Lakers in the Pacific.

Take the Clippers over the Suns.

2♦ L.A. CLIPPERS

JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday freebie is to back the Suns as the short home chalk over the Clippers.

Los Angeles showed last night that they are not content with just making the playoffs, as the Clippers win in Denver has them hot on the heels of the Lakers for the overall # 3 seed in the West standings.

Phoenix on the other hand is still scrambling to stay in contention for the # 8 seed out West, and last night's loss to Oklahoma City definitely hurt. Still, prefer to side with the home-loving Suns who are still 13-4 against the spread their last 17 at the U.S. Airways Arena, and have won and covered each of the Clippers last five visits to the Valley of the Sun.

The Suns have won eight of the last ten meetings overall against the Clippers, and they are a positive 11-8 versus the spread when playing unrested this season.

Look for the Clippers current five-game winning streak to be halted tonight in Phoenix.

Suns keep their playoff hopes alive with the home win and cover.

5♦ PHOENIX

CHRIS JORDAN

Looking to make it four in a row with my complimentary winners, after nailing the Clippers in Denver last night, and I'm going to take my shot with the New York Yankees over the Minnesota Twins, and I'm playing the Bronx Bombers on the run line.

Now as you may know, the pitchers are automatically listed when playing the run line in baseball, and the one pitcher I'm most worried about that ends up on your ticket is Minnesota's Anthony Swarzak. With Nick Blackburn missing his scheduled start due to stiffness in his right shoulder, Swarzak is set to make his third start of the season, and even though he's seemingly fared well two weeks into the season, he'll be making his first start at Yankee Stadium.

And really, is there any other intimidating ball park than this one?

And just like we saw the New York Yankees respond to the series-opening loss to the Minnesota Twins, negating the 7-3 loss with an 8-3 blowout, I'm expecting the Bombers to bounce back from last night's 6-5 loss to the Twinkies.

Last season the Yankees won six of the eight meetings. Year before that, the Yankees won seven of nine meetings. And taking it back even further, the Yanks have won 39 of the last 52 meetings played in the Bronx.

The Yankees are now 6-3 since their season-opening, three-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Twins are mired in a 7-21 skid with a suitcase in hand dating back to last season, and this one being the season-finale after yesterday loss, I like the Bombers to roll big.

Lay the run line.

1♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5

Sean Murphy

Dodgers @ Brewers
PICK: Dodgers +1.5

This has been a tight series so far, with the Brewers pulling out one-run victories in each of the first two games.

On Thursday afternoon, I'll pay the tariff to grab the insurance run with the Dodgers, as they aim to avoid the sweep at Miller Park.

Despite dropping the last two games, the Dodgers remain a terrific 9-3 on the season. Yes, this is the first time they've run into a true contender, but it's surely worth noting that they've come up just short in each of the last two contests.

Unlike the first two games of this series, today I'll give L.A. a slight edge on the mound, as it sends Aaron Harang against Randy Wolf.

Harang isn't likely to duplicate the effort that saw him strike out 13 Padres hitters last time out, but I do feel that he's serviceable in this spot. Note that Harang faced the Brewers once as a member of the Padres last season, allowing only six hits over eight shutout innings in a 1-0 victory. He's certainly familiar with the Brew Crew from his long tenure with the Reds, an N.L. Central rival.

Randy Wolf enjoyed one of his best seasons a year ago, going 13-10 with a 3.69 ERA with the Brewers. However, there's no disputing the fact that he's on the downside of his career, and it has certainly shown so far this season, as he's given up 18 hits and 11 earned runs in only 9 1/3 innings of work.

The Brewers will go as far as Ryan Braun can take them, and as long as he's slumping (6-for-26 L7 games, hasn't homered since April 8th), they'll continue to have a tough time winning by margin (3-9 when factoring in the -1.5 run-line this season).

The Dodgers have been listed as the underdog in each of the first two games of this series, so it's no real surprise they're facing the prospect of a sweep on Thursday. I look for them to bring their 'A' game today.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Cincinnati +142 over ST LOUIS: (Added) With Carpenter out Adam Wainright was to be the Ace of this squad, but that hasn't happened as he has gone 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA in his 2 starts so far. He has allowed 11 hits and 3 HR's in just 8.2 innings of work on the year and this after he had an ERA of 2.42 in 2010 and a 2.63 ERA in 2009. he is not the same pitcher as he was before the surgery and I expect a struggling Reds offense to take some frustrations out on him today. Bronson Arroyo has not fared well vs the Cards of late with an 0-2 mark and a 4.64 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, but he has started very well out the gate for the Reds with a 2.63 ERA in his two starts, plus he probably won't have to face Berkman and the way Metheny has been running things, I can see him giving another starter or two the day off on this getaway game. The Reds are off an embarrassing 11-1 loss last night and will trying very hard to avoid the sweep here. Look for the upset in this one.

2 UNIT PLAY

Miami -1.5 (+140) over Chicago: I was one of the few that actually went with the Fish last night and I will come right back with them, but on the RL this time. The Cubs have not looked all that good in their last 4 road games, as they have lost all 4 by at least 3 runs each, getting outscored by 22 runs in the 4 games. the last game the Cubs won was at St Louis in a game that Jeff Samardzija pitched. Jeff did face the then Florida Marlins back in 2010 and the Cubs one by 10 runs, so maybe a little payback is in order here. Ricky Nolasco is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA in his last 5 meetings with the Cubs, but 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA inn 3 meetings with them in Florida. The Cubs offense looked like they were turning the corner, but they have scored just 7 total runs in their last 4 games. The Miami offense has turned the corner as they have scored 5.6 rpg and have hit .293 in their last 5 games. Omar Infante will be out for Miami in this one, but he was out last night as well and they still scored 9 runs in the game, including 6 off a much tougher starter than they will face today. Look for Miami to complete the sweep in easy fashion.

1 UNIT PLAY

MILWAUKEE -130 over LA Dodgers: (Added) I said in game 1 of his series that the Dodgers were a paper 9-1 team as the only teams they played were San Diego and Pittsburgh. Now they stepped up in competition and have fallen victim to two walk off wins by the Brewers. During that 9-1 start, the only loss they suffered was when Harang was on the mound, as he allowed 4 ERA in 6.1 innings in a 9-8 loss to the Padres. Aaron is 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA on the year and the only team he faced in his 2 starts was the offensively challenged Padres, so what will he do vs a better offensive team today? Aaron has struggled with this team of late, going 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them and I see the struggles continuing here. Rand Wolf has struggled out tyhe gate as well. but he is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 meetings with Dodgers Blue here. The Dodgers are not a bad team, but also not an elite team either. Milwaukee Got off to a bit of a rough start, but they can get over .500 with a win here and they will do it, behind a solid performance from Wolf.

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