SPORTS WAGERS
Series - Chicago +153 over Phoenix
The Blackhawks are -149 in tonight’s game and should they win tonight, the series line will drop significantly. In other words, Chicago offers up some great value to take this series based on that alone. All three games of this series has gone into OT and either squad could be up 3-0. It’s a toss-up but the Blackhawks clearly have superior talent. The edge that Phoenix has is in net with Mike Smith. The guy has been as good as advertised and then some. However, with things being as tight as they have been and knowing this is a toss-up series, taking back better than 3-2 only makes incredible sense. Play: Chicago +153 to win series (Risking 2 units).
Florida +151 over NEW JERSEY
All the pressure in the world was on the Devils to win this series before it began. That pressure intensified after New Jersey blew a 3-0 lead in game 3 prior to it being seven minutes old. With the Devils goaltending remaining a potential liability, the Panthers bring the momentum and confidence into this game four. When looking at the series as a whole, the Panthers have been gaining steam since the first period of game one. They almost caught the Devils in that game and had it not been for that slow start, they would be up 3-0 in this series. The Devils’ defense cannot help out offensively and that is beginning to tax the forwards. We’ve seen parity throughout these playoffs. This series is a prime example, as almost anything can happen. With that in mind and with a significant edge on defense and goal, the Panthers once again offer up the most value on tonight’s board. Play: Florida +151 (Risking 2 units).
Pass NBA
Steve Janus
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5
The Bucks have to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Milwaukee has to make up 2.5-games on the 76ers over their final four games. It's a bit of a long shot, but I expect Milwaukee to do whatever it takes to win this game.
The Pacers appear like the easy play in this one. Indiana has won six in a row, including a 105-99 win at Milwaukee last Saturday. While Indiana doesn't officially have the No. 3 seed locked up, its only a matter of time.
I don't think there is any doubt the Bucks have more to play for in this game. It's going to be extremely hard for Indiana to match Milwaukee's intensity on both sides, which is why I will gladly take the points in this situation every time.
Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. They are 12-2 ATS in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons and 14-4 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 3 seasons.
David Banks
Milwaukee Bucks +5
The Milwaukee Bucks (29-31, 28-32 ATS) are still in the playoff hunt thanks to the Philadelphia 76ers continuing to collapse in front of them. Milwaukee has held its own against teams with losing records, but it has done virtually nothing vs. winning teams as of late. That will need to change if the Bucks have any hope of playing in the post-season, and it needs to change immediately vs. possibly the hottest team in the NBA when they visit the Indiana Pacers (40-22, 31-31 ATS) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN on Thursday night at 7:00 ET.
The Bucks are 1 games behind the struggling 76ers for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference heading into a Wednesday night road game vs. the Washington Wizards that precedes this contest, and that game may not be easy either given the Wizards' improved play as of late. Milwaukee is just 4-13 vs. teams in the Sagarin Top 10 and 9-24 vs. teams in the Sagarin Top 16, meaning that the Bucks are 20-7 vs. the bottom half of the NBA. That may help vs. the Wizards Wednesday, but it does nothing for the Bucks here as the Pacers are ranked sixth by Sagarin. On a positive note, Milwaukee is 8-1 both straight up and against the spread in its last nine road games, although that streak loses its luster when you consider that, true to form, all eight wins and covers came vs. teams with losing records and the lone loss came against the New York Knicks, the only winning team they have played on the road during this stretch.
The Pacers are on fire right now as they are riding a six-game winning streak and they are 10-1 straight up and 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games. That leaves Indiana in second place in the Central Division behind the Chicago Bulls, and more importantly it has all but sewn up the three-seed in the East behind the Big Two of the Bulls and the Miami Heat, as the Pacers have opened up a four-game lead over the fourth seeded Boston Celtics with four games remaining. The Pacers did the Bucks a favor by beating the 76ers 102-97 in Philadelphia on Tuesday and they could do Milwaukee another favor here by limiting the minutes of their starters, which is a distinct possibility with the three-seed in hand and no possibility of moving up. Considering that Milwaukee has one win vs. a team over .500 in its last 20 games, the Bucks may need all the help that they can get to keep their playoff hopes alive here.
These teams have met just twice thus far this season, and the Pacers won both of those games outright in Milwaukee with the most recent win coming last Saturday by a 105-99 score. Besides the fact that has been par for the course for the Bucks vs. winning teams this year, it has also continued an interesting pattern that has seen the road teams go 9-1-1 against the spread in the last 11 head-to-head meetings. Thus, something has to give here as in order to build on that trend, the Milwaukee will need to buck (pun intended) the other trend dealing with their failures vs. good teams.
WUNDERDOG
St. Louis at San Jose
Pick: St. Louis -110
At one time the San Jose Sharks had a reputation of being an impossible team to beat at the Shark Tank, but that advantage has really lost all of its merit. While they are still tough here, the magic is no longer with them, so it is team vs. team. The Blues simply have a better team, and hold the series edge 2-1 on the heels of a Game 3 win here already. St. Louis has been great in the role of a favorite at 37-18 in their last 55, but they have also been grabbing the cash off two days of rest at 6-1 in their last seven. The Sharks have been brutal as a playoffs dog, where they are now just 1-6 in their last seven. Play on St. Louis.
Hollywood Sports
Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Seattle (7-6) has won three of their last four games after their 4-1 win over the Indians last night. The Mariners have now won 4 of their last 5 games when favored. They send out their ace in Hernandez for this who is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP this season. King Felix does come off a nice outing versus Oakland where he allowed only two runs in 7 innings of work -- and Seattle has won 5 of their last 7 games with Hernandez pitching after a Quality Start in his last effort. The Mariners have also won 13 of their last 19 home games with Hernandez pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Cleveland (5-5) counters with Tomlin who is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP this year. Skepticism is warranted with Tomlin when pitching in hostile environments as he was saddled with a 4.92 ERA along with a 1.15 WHIP and .269 opponent's batting average which were all worse than his solid 3.58 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and. 226 opponent's batting average when at home last season. The Indians have lost 7 of their last 8 road games with Tomlin pitching as the underdog. Cleveland has also lost 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters, the Indians have lost 4 straight games after failing to score more than two runs in their last game. Considering that the Mariners have won 5 of their last 7 games against Cleveland when Hernandez made the start, they offer a nice proposition here as a money line favorite in the -150 (3:2) range. Take Seattle with the money line in this one while listing both starting pitchers.
Jack Jones
Indiana Pacers -5.5
No one is playing better with the playoffs approaching than the Indiana Pacers, who are on the verge of locking up homecourt advantage in the first round. The Pacers try to win their seventh straight game on Thursday night when they host the Bucks, who have lost four of five to fall 2 1/2 games out of the Eastern Conference's eighth spot.
Indiana (40-22) has won 10 of its 11 games this month to put itself comfortably in third place in the East. The Pacers now just need one more win coupled with an Atlanta loss to secure that No. 3 seed. I look for Indiana to win their seventh straight in blowout fashion.
Milwaukee is simply folding under the pressure of trying to make the playoffs. They let Washington shoot 55.7 percent last night in a 121-112 road loss to the Wizards. "Wrong time to have a bad game," Milwaukee coach Scott Skiles said. "It's an absolute must-win for us. We have to find a way to get that game." Now deflated from the loss, I don't see the Bucks being able to bounce back emotionally tonight.
Indiana has won four straight over Milwaukee, with three of those wins coming on the road. They won 125-104 at Milwaukee on March 24th followed by a 105-99 road victory again on April 14th. This is simply a tough match-up for the Bucks because they don't have the size to be able to defend the Pacers. Indiana has averaged 115.0 points/game in their two wins over the Bucks this season. Bet the Pacers Thursday.
Bryan Power
Houston @ New Orleans
PICK: Houston -5
Note that while I had a rare 'off night' w/ my premium selections, I did give out a nice FREE Winner on Washington (in NBA) in this space yesterday. I'll stick with the NBA again today as here's a desperate Houston team traveling to the Big Easy to face New Orleans. The Rockets are on a 0-5 SU/ATS slide that may end up costing them a playoff berth. Last night, they fell 117-110 to Dallas, getting outscored 39-26 in the final quarter. Getting outscored should be a non-issue this evening against the lowest scoring team in the Western Conference (89.6 PPG). Prior to losing last night, 103-91 at Memphis, the Hornets "won" one of the truly wretched games in NBA history, 75-67 over Charlotte. While the Rockets have actually struggled with New Orleans in three meetings this season, I feel the "magnitude of the situation" carries them to a much needed victory.
Sammy P
St. Louis at San Jose
Play: Under 5
Heading into Game 4 in San Jose tonight this series has been a very close hard fought affair. St. Louis holds the 2-1 series lead, but San Jose still has the opportunity on its home ice to get back in the series and knot things up at two games apiece. The first three games have seen scores of 3-2, 3-0, and 4-3. The main storyline in this series has been the Blues’ Power Play efficiency which has seen at least one goal scored in all three games (5-for-13 for the series). In fact, St. Louis went 3-for-4 on the man advantage on Monday night while San Jose also added a PP goal going 1-for-4. If San Jose wants to get back into this series they will have to be better on their PK and they know this. "We just haven't moved well together [on the PK]," forward Joe Pavelski said. "We know we can do it. We've shown it in the past. We've got to get the clears when we get the chance and get the first save, which we have. We have to do a better job of clearing out." San Jose will be more aggressive on their kill tonight and we'll end up seeing the Blues revert back to the mean. These teams have gone 4-2-1 to the UNDER so far this season. With a desperate San Jose team chances will be few and far between and I expect the Sharks to play their type of game during 5-on-5 hockey.
Dave Easley
LA Angels -1.5 +110
I don't do that often, but seeing the total get bet "up", which is super-contrarian for what a night game in Anaheim (or LAD) usually does, I cannot help but think it's not the A's they think might do the scoring. It's worth a unit. I also played the Fish early. At -150 I'll take my chances that we see the good Nolasco, since most of the Marlins are in the starting lineup. We've got a few units to mess with, so we'll go out on some limbs today. I am very tempted to also take the Cubs +1.5 and bet that Miami wins a one run game. I do shit like that, just like last night SF game. If you bet the appropriate amount(s) there's little risk and big rewards occasionally.
Jimmy Boyd
Seattle Mariners -142
The Mariners have the edge with Felix Hernandez on the hill. He has a career 2.80 ERA in 10 starts against the Indians and is 5-2 in his last 7 starts against them, including 2-0 at home during this span. The M's have outscored the Tribe 11-2 in those 2 home wins.
Josh Tomlin has a career 6.23 ERA in 3 starts versus Seattle and was shelled in his last start against the Mariners, giving up 6 runs on 11 hits in a 9-2 loss. The Indians are 0-4 in Tomlin's last 4 starts as an underdog and 1-7 in his last 8 starts as a road underdog. We'll take the Mariners.
Jeff Alexander
Arizona Diamondbacks +120
The D-backs are showing value at this price considering the Braves are 3-12 in their last 15 series openers and 2-10 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Plus, the Diamondbacks are an awesome 7-0 in their last 7 games as a home underdog and 4-0 in Collmenter's last 4 starts as a home underdog. We'll take Arizona.
Dave Price
Philadelphia Phillies -110
The Phillies are struggling out of the gate, as they are missing some key pieces, but are still showing value at this price against the lowly Padres. The Phillies are 22-8 in their last 30 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 24-4 in their last 28 meetings in San Diego. Also, they are 7-2 in Worley's last 9 road starts. Take Philly.