Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, April 21,2011

Marc Lawrence

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

When the A's send Brandon McCarthy to the mound in Seattle Thursday evening in the opener of this four game series Oakland will do so knowing McCarthy will enter tonight's fray in terrific KW form with two walks and 14 strikeouts in his three starting efforts this season. With the A's 8-2 the last 10 games in this series, and 5-0 their last five in Seattle, look for McCarthy to improve to 5-1 in his career team starts in this series here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland.

Tom Freese

Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

Kansas City is 11-7 this year. The Royals are 55-112 their last 167 games vs. a team with a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Royals are 12-25 after scoring 5 runs or more in their last game. The Royals are 3-9 in game 4 of a series. Starting pitcher Sean O'Sullivan is 2-5 his last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Cleveland is 13-5 this year. The Indians are 20-7 their last 27 games overall and they are 13-3 their last 16 games as favorites. The Indians are 7-1 their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30. Starting pitcher Josh Tomlin is 5-0 this year.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers

Seems like too many points for the Blazers to be laying down in an 0-2 hole. Dallas is 11-1 ATS this season when off back to back home wins and all that upset talk you heard concerning the potential outcome of this series is now gone. During the regular season, the Mavs were one of the very best teams on the road, going 28-13 straight up and 25-16 against the spread. Portland is just 3-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and is 0-3 SU/ATS L3 games overall. Dallas has won and covered its last six games.

Play on: Dallas

Tony George

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Miami Heat -4.5

Cheap number for a team who just posted a 21 point win. Philly has NO answer for the big 3 in this series, and quite frankly this line should be 9 or more tonight. Not drinking the koolaid and Philly here, Miami is better and Philly is just 1-7 their last 8 games SU and ATS. Oddsmakers need to get real this is a weak line. The Heat are second best in the NBA is field goal percentage shot and defended and looked impressive holding the 76ers to just 73 total points in the last game. Miami is better by far, lay it.

Jim Feist

Houston Astros vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets

A pair of last place teams meet in the Big Apple. Houston has a pop-gun offense and has been weak on the road. Starter J.A. Happ has not impressed, with a 5.79 ERA. It is unclear how much his recent oblique injury is a problem, but he is struggling. Control is a concern, walking 11 in 18 innings. Meanwhile, NY lefty Chris Capuano has more strikeouts than innings pitched and just 4 walks in 12+ innings. Play the NY Mets.

EZWINNERS

Boston Red Sox -130

The Red Sox starting pitcher Josh Beckett held the Blue Jays to one run on three hits over seven innings for his second win this season which was the first time since the end of 2009 that Beckett has won two straight starts. Over these last two games Beckett has looked like his old self as he has struck out nineteen batters in fifteen innings of work with a 0.60 ERA in those two games. Rookie pitcher Tyler Chatwood gets the start for the Angels and even though Chatwood has pitched pretty well so far, I don't expect him to outduel Beckett who is really locked in right now. The Red Sox have won nine out of the last ten meetings between these two teams and I expect their dominance to continue. Play on Boston.

James Patrick Sports

Phillies vs. Padres

With the Philadelphia Phillies (27-9) in their last (36) road games and (20-6) in the last (26) meetings in San Diego, Big Game James Patrick's Diamond Club complimentary selection in Thursday Major League Baseball action is Philadelphia Phillies.

Steve Merril

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels +1½

The Angels return home playing good baseball. They'll host the Red Sox who have won four of their last five games after splitting a 2-game set in Oakland. Josh Beckett turned it around in a pair of starts at home, but he'll have to sustain it on the road. Beckett is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three starts this season, but he has struggled with the Angels in the past. He's 4-5 with a 4.27 ERA in 13 career starts against Los Angeles. Last year, Beckett gave up 9 runs and 12 hits in 13.3 innings pitched against them going 1-1 in the process. Torii Hunter (7-18), Vernon Wells (12-38), Maicer Izturis (11-32), Reggie Willits (2-5), Howard Kendrick (10-25) and Peter Bourjos (1-3) hit Beckett well. Boston’s bullpen is still an issue as they have an ERA over 9.00 on the road while looking for their first win of the season. The Angels are hitting over .270 as a team despite struggling a little at home.

Big things are expected from Angels’ rookie Tyler Chatwood. He is 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts this season. Chatwood defeated the White Sox after giving up 1 run and five hits in seven innings of work. Boston has one road win this season and they are hitting below .200 away from Fenway Park. As a unit, they are hitting over .230 as a team which is well below expectations for this team. The Angels’ bullpen has thrown 20.7 innings at home and they’ve yet to give up a run this season. We'll take the runline value with the home team that has a good lineup working in our favor.

Twins vs. Orioles
Play: Under 8

Two struggling offenses take the field on Thursday night in Baltimore. The Twins have scored just 54 runs in their first 18 games which is an average of just 3 runs per game. They have yet to score over 5 runs in a game this season. That's the longest streak to begin a season since the Washington Senators did so in their first 18 games in 1909. It hasn't helped Minnesota that Justin Morneau and Delmon Young have been out of the lineup with the flu and other ailments. Jeremy Guthrie makes the start for Baltimore. He's 1-2 with a 3.32 ERA on the season. Guthrie gave up 1 run and four hits in six innings pitched at home against the Rangers. Guthrie is 3-0 with a 2.96 ERA in four career starts against the Twins, picking up two wins last season. Denard Span (1-9) and Alexi Casilla (2-8) have poor numbers against Guthrie. Minnesota is hitting just over .214 on the road this season.

Scott Baker gets light-hitting Baltimore. Baker is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts, but he gave up just 1 run and four hits in seven innings against Tampa Bay in his last start. Baker is also undefeated against the Orioles going 5-0 with a 2.53 ERA in seven career starts. Baker picked up two wins last season against Baltimore after giving up 3 runs and seven hits in 15 innings of work. Vlad Guerrero (5-20), Cesar Izturis (0-4), Luke Scott (3-14), Felix Pie (1-5) and Nick Markakis (3-17) have struggled with Baker. The Orioles are hitting right around .235 this season as a team and less than that at night. This should be a low-scoring game between two struggling offenses.

Tom Stryker

Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland is tied with Colorado for the best record in the majors. With the Rockies enjoying an off day, the Indians could own the best record in baseball with a victory tonight over Kansas City.

On the bump for the Tribe looking for his fourth victory of the season will be Tyler, Texas product Josh Tomlin. With three games in the bank against the Orioles, Mariners and Red Sox, No. 43 has pitched extremely well allowing only six earned runs and 12 hits in 19.2 innings of work. That's good enough for a 3-0 mark and a respectable 2.75 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .240 against Tomlin.

Kansas City will counter with reliever turned starter Season O'Sullivan. After a pair of relief appearances against the Angels and White Sox, O'Sullivan looked great in his first start at home against Seattle allowing no earned runs and five hits in only 5.0 frames. Unfortunately, Cleveland has given No. 37 a little trouble in the past. In two performances against the Indians last year, Sean assembled a lofty 6.30 ERA!

Coming off a victory, the Tribe has been tough to beat posting wins in 17 in their last 21 games. The Indians have the better arm on the bump and they'll own the best record in baseball after this one is over. Take Cleveland with Tomlin.

Craig Trapp

Bulls vs. Pacers
Play: Over 189

Pacers have played very well in both games but have missed some key shots at end of the game to keep them from pulling upsets. Tonight the Pacers will be much better offensively and push this one way over. The Bulls defense is not super athletic after Rose and they really struggle to cover all the young perimeter players of the Pacers. Pacers and Bulls will live at the foul line as neither guards the ball without fouling. We see a much more up and down game tonight as this one goes way over this number.

Ray Monohan

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Pitchers tonight: Phillies RH Roy Oswalt (2-0, 2.50 ERA) vs. Padres RH Mat Latos (0-2, 5.84 ERA). Oswalt is 10-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 18 career appearances against the Padres. Latos struck out 5 and gave up 5 runs on 4 hits over 6 1/3 innings last Saturday against the Astros. I don't like Latos tonight vs. the Phili bats. After hitting just 2 home runs in their previous 6 games, the Phillies hammered 2 homers on Wednesday. Latos began the season on the DL and came back quickly to get his 1st start, and he's made 1 more appearance, but I don't think he has looked good in either start and I think the Padres have brought him back to early. His pitch count will be scrutinized big time tonight and he's 0-2 with a 5.84 ERA. The Phillies have won 4 of their last 7 with their top 2 hitters Victorino and Polanco both hitting over .320. The Phillies and Oswalt roll big tonight. Trends I like for this one include Phillies are 12-1 in their last 13 games as a road underdog, are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home favorite, are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win, are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Matt Fargo

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins

Florida has taken the first two games of this series with the Pirates by identical 6-0 scores and it looks for the series sweep tonight. The Marlins are 10-6 and trail the Phillies by just a half-game in the National League East so they are playing very well and not letting Philadelphia run away with things. The Marlins have won five of their last six games and this is a great opportunity to keep the run going as they have two more home series on deck. The Marlins are 8-3 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record.

The Pirates have played exceptional on the road this season, this is prior to this series. They came into Florida with a 7-3 record on the road but they have dropped the last two games while not scoring a single run. Pittsburgh is now hitting just .229 on the season and its 3.6 rpg is tied for 25th in baseball. Last night's loss was the eighth in the last nine meetings against the Marlins and momentum is not on its side as Pittsburgh is a dreadful 17-50 in its last 67 games after losing the first two games of a series.

Chris Volstad was good in his first start this season as he allowed one run in five innings against the Nationals at home. He was roughed up next time out by the Braves as he gave up five runs in 4.2 innings on the road but we should see a bounceback tonight. He was a much better pitcher at home than on the road last season, posting a 3.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 15 home starts compared to a 5.73 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 15 road starts. It worked that way against the Pirates last year as he tossed a quality outing at home.

The Pirates counter with James McDonald who has progressively gotten worse as the season moves along. He allowed two runs in his first start but then gave up five runs in his second and then six runs in his last outing. He pitched very well last season in 11 starts with Pittsburgh after being sent over by the Dodgers but this year he has an ugly 7.47 and 9:9 K:BB ratio in 15.2 innings. His velocity is way down so there is a concern and until it is found, he is a good fade. 3* Florida Marlins

SPORTS WAGERS

Arizona +119 over CINCINNATI

12:35 PM EST. Daniel Hudson got an extended MLB look after his trade from the White Sox to Arizona last year. His results were outstanding (2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) and his skills** (for a more in depth look at skills see bottom of these write-ups) were near elite. This season, Hudson is 0-3 but he’s not an 0-3 pitcher and a string of wins is forthcoming very soon. He’s only allowed 15 hits in 19 innings and over that span he’s struck out 23 batters. He’s lasted at least six full innings in every start but the D-Backs have only given him four runs of support in those three games. Mike Leake is in his second season in the majors. He has zero minor-league experience and he was shut down last season in late August after posting a 12.41 ERA in his last 4 outings. This season he’s been serviceable with a 2-0 record and 14 K’s in 16.2 innings but his ERA is 5.26 and he’s also walked eight batters. There’s another problem too, as pitching might not be the only thing on Leake’s mind. Leake was arrested Monday on a first-degree misdemeanor charge for allegedly removing price tags from six T-shirts in a Macy's store and trying to leave without paying. The Reds would have skipped him today and publicly admitted so but with Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey on the DL they’re forced to go with him. As soon as those two starters are back, Leake will be riding buses in the minors and he pretty much knows that. Success at this level takes great concentration and this afternoon Mike Leake is unlikely to even come close to the level needed for success. Play: Arizona +119 (Risking 2 units).

Pittsburgh +123 over FLORIDA

James MacDonald has some ugly numbers this year. In three starts, he’s 0-1 with an ERA of 7.47 after giving up 19 hits and 13 ER in just 15.2 frames. However, his three starts have come against the red-hot bats of Cincinnati, Colorado and St. Louis and it wasn’t all bad. In his last start in Cincinnati he gave up a fifth inning grand slam where four of the six runs he allowed came from. MacDonald has some very good stuff and is expected to have a bright future in the majors. He’s also had success against the Fish in his career with a 1-1 record and 2.35 ERA. Chris Volstad is not exactly a pitcher to fear. He’s started two games this year and has lasted a combined 9.2 frames. The right-hander has walked six batters over that stretch while fanning just four and that’s a huge warning sign. He’s also allowed two home runs. In his last start, Volstad’s fastball topped off at 89 MPH and he was all over the place in terms of control. He’s also 1-1 with a 7.07 ERA in three career starts against Pittsburgh. Like most pitchers, Volstad was once a top-prospect but now he’s just trying to stay in the majors. Hardly a guy to be spotting this price with. Play: Pittsburgh +123 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago –101 over TAMPA BAY (1st 5 innings)

Chicago has one of the worst pens in the league while the Rays pen is tops in the AL, thus the five inning play. Gavin Floyd entered 2011 as one of the game's more reliable pitchers. While his skills do not rank among the elite, they are nonetheless rock solid. Floyd has posted two straight seasons with nearly identical ERAs and stable skills and there are some encouraging underlying trends indicating ERA upside. Floyd has shown a multi-year growth in ground-ball tendency and a multi-year decline in hr/9. He has outstanding command and he also has an outstanding record against the Rays. In his career against TB, Floyd has thrown 29 innings and has allowed just 17 hits, struck out 27 and walked just four. Jeff Niemann is entering his third season in the Tampa rotation and has posted similar skills in each of his first two seasons. This season he’s 0-2 with an ERA of 6.32 and a WHIP of 1.66. Both his command and groundball rate (32%) are on the decline and while he’s only walked four batters this season he’s going deep into counts and that’s always a red flag. Additionally, current South Side hitters are batting .307 off Niemann and for a guy with pedestrian skills and shattering confidence this could be a long day. Play: Chicago –101 in the first five innings (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

*In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).

SPORTS WAGERS

INDIANA +5 over Chicago

The Bulls are up 2-0 in this series but don’t think for a second that the Pacers are hanging their heads. One could make a strong argument that with a couple of bounces going its way, Indiana could be up 2-0 heading home. The Pacers lost both games in Chicago by five and six points respectively. They were ahead in both games late in the fourth and just came up short on both occasions. One could argue that the Bulls have not played their best basketball yet. They shot just 39% from the field in game two and committed 21 turnovers, yet they still won. While that argument certainly has some validity, an argument can be made for the Pacers too, as Chicago has had an overwhelming edge on the boards (53-37 in game 2). A correction and this series is far from over. Paul George deserves a ton of credit for quality defensive work against Derrick Rose. The 6-foot-8 rookie used his length to contain Rose about as well as one could ask for while also having four blocks and three steals in an active performance. The 37-win Pacers have not looked a bit out of place against the 62-win Bulls and now they come home knowing they can beat this team with a better rebounding effort. Play: Indiana +5 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

PHILADELPHIA +5 over Miami

How dominating was the Heat's Game 2 performance? Well, LeBron James had 29 points, which matched the output of the Sixers' five starters. The Heat have turned the Sixers into a jump-shooting team. After going 14 for 23 from the field in the first quarter of Game 1, the Sixers are 48 for 141 (34 percent) over the next seven quarters. Those might be grim numbers but let us not forget that when you wager on the Heat you’re going to pay a premium and that seldom comes recommended. Secondly, the 76ers had a 14-point lead in game one before trailing by 16 at one point. They cut that 16-point deficit to one before ultimately losing by just eight. Philly has the deeper bench and while nobody in their right mind gives them a chance to win this series, there’s a decent chance that they’ll win a game, maybe two. We’ve seen Miami get very complacent on far too many occasions this season and after a blowout in game two, complacency could set in again. The Sixers are a dangerous team and they proved so all season long. They’re young but they have game and a win here would not surprise. Play: Philadelphia +5 (Risking 2.1 units to in 2).

PORTLAND –5½ over Dallas

The Mavericks are considered to be the better team. After all, they won more games and they were also a –176 favorite to win the series. Dallas was a 4½-point favorite in game one and they covered. In game two, the line dropped to Dallas –3½ and they won by 12. Interesting, isn’t it, that with Dallas winning both games and being the prohibitive fave, the Blazers are a 5½-point choice in game three when Dallas was a lower favorite in games one and two? Are we missing something here? We don’t think so. Portland will make adjustments here and they will compete. The Blazers stagnant spells on offense must stop. Dallas doesn’t like to get dirty. They can be pushed around in the paint and that’s one of the Blazers strengths. The complaining about officiating must stop. Just play basketball. Portland is so much better than they’ve shown in this series, although they could have easily won the first game. The Mavs are not that strong. They rely heavily on perimeter shooting and rarely get second chance points. Portland has to come in and correct these not so difficult issues. The Blazers are best in their own building while the Mavericks have not fared well when traveling to this region. Dallas lost and failed to cover in both trips here during the regular season, once as road chalk and the second time as a 4.5- point dog. The Blazers may be down but they can get right back in this series. Both the talent level and the line suggests there’s a strong chance that will happen. Play: Portland –5½ (Risking 2 units).