Nelly
Tampa Bay - over Chicago
The White Sox have lost seven straight games and are in danger of facing a four-game sweep tonight against the Rays. Chicago is now 7-11 after starting the season strong with a 6-3 mark through the first nine games. Chicago scored almost seven runs per game in that nine-game stretch but in the nine games since the offense has disappeared with only 20 runs scored, barely two runs per game. Chicago's bullpen has been a big problem all season long and the starting pitching has not been as good as most expected it would be. Gavin Floyd can be counted among the disappointments. His best start of the season came against the Rays with eight innings of one-run ball but Tampa's offense has turned the corner after a very slow start. Floyd allowed ten runs in his other two starts to produce very average numbers this season and Chicago is actually just 1-5 in his last six starts going back to last season. Jeff Niemann had a very poor debut outing but his starts have been progressively better each time out, including a quality seven-inning effort his last time out. Chicago did hit him hard earlier this season with two home runs but he best Floyd in this match-up last season with a great outing. Tampa Bay also owns a 1.09 bullpen ERA at home for the season. The Rays are batting .278 in the last ten games compared to a .197 mark for the Sox and the Rays have won nine of the last ten games to get back to .500. With a very cheap price backing the Rays to complete the sweep makes a lot of sense.
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers +4
The Bulls are 9-1 straight up and against the spread off 3 or more home games. They come in off a pair of wins and no covers in games 1 and 2 of this series. Tonight they will go to Indiana and face a Pacers team that will have the home crowd. However they will not be able to stop a focused Bulls team that will look to improve on a 38% shooting performance. The Bulls will be the more focused team tonight and will contribute more as a team and rely less on D. Rose. In the end look for the Bulls to get the win and cover and take a Commanding 3-0 lead in this first round series.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on A's/Mariners UNDER 6.5
I'm taking the Under in what should be a pitcher's duel tonight. Hernandez is too good to have another rough outing. He should bounce back at home against a team he has owned. He has an ERA of only 2.77 in 18 career starts against the A's. Plus, Oakland is hitting just .236 on the road this season. The Under is 19-7-2 in Hernandez's last 28 starts overall, 7-1 in his last 8 home starts and 7-1 in his last 8 home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. McCarthy has pitched very well for the A's. He's carrying an ERA of 2.45 through his first 3 starts. Seattle has been held to 3 runs or less in 7 of its last 9 games and McCarthy has the stuff to silence the M's again tonight. The Under is 7-2 in the Athletics' last 9 games as a road underdog. We'll take the Under.
Info Plays
3* Astros +127
Reasons why Houston will win:
1) The Mets are a complete mess right now. This team has zero confidence and it is showing on the field. New York is now 1-8 at home this season. The Mets figure to have a hard time ending that skid with Chris Capuano on the mound. He is 1-1 with a 8.48 ERA. Astros starter J.A. Happ has pitched well in each of his last two starts, and is 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA in three career starts against New York.
2) The Astros are 29-20 against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. In 2011 they are averaging 6.7 runs against left handed starters!
3) The Mets are 19-24 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons, and 1-7 against the money line after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season.
Freddy Wills
Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Can't help it I backed Jeff Niemann last time out and I continue to praise him as he was a money maker for me last year early in the season and I still think he can show a little of that still despite his slow start. He backed it up in his last start going 7 innings giving up 3 ER for the win. He seemed to have more control than his previous starts and this is also a revenge start for him as he lasted just 2.2 innings vs. the White Sox earlier in the season, but that's where play comes in...
White Sox have really struggled scoring just 6 runs in their last 5 games and the Rays have just been on fire. They have won 8 of 9 and have been a great home team the last two years and I expect nothing less of them once again as the White Sox struggles continue. The White Sox are just 8-23 in Gavin Floyd's last 31 road starts and the Rays are 11-3 in their last 14 with Niemann on 4 days rest. Rays are the dog because of Floyd's success against the Rays, but given how hot their bats are right now and just how cold the Sox are and the improvements I saw from Niemann in his last start.
Jack Jones
Oakland A's +130
The Oakland A's are showing great value Thursday as an underdog to the Seattle Mariners. Once again, AL Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez is getting too much respect from odds makers tonight. Not only is Hernandez off to a slow start this season, he's also not getting any run support as usual. Hernandez is 1-2 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in four starts this season. The Mariners are hitting .226 and scoring 3.7 RPG this year.
Just as Hernandez is overvalued, Oakland starter Brandon McCarthy is not getting his due respect from odds makers and is clearly undervalued in this match-up. McCarthy is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in three starts this season. He has given up only 6 runs, 23 hits and 2 walks in 22 innings in 2010. The A's are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Oakland is 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Mariners are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet Oakland Thursday.
Larry Ness
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
Roy Oswalt has had back issues in the past but doesn’t seem too concerned about his latest problems. Back pain forced Oswalt to leave after six innings in his most recent start, a 4-3 Philly loss to Florida. Oswalt got a no deciosn, allowing just two runs on four hits in those six innings. He’s 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA after three starts this year (team is 2-1), as part of MLB’s most-heralded rotation in quite some time. He’s always loved facing the Padres, going 10-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 18 games against San Diego. He’s 10-2 with a 2.52 ERA in 16 career starts vs the Padres (teams are 13-3), including 4-1 with a 1.79 ERA in nine outings at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. More good news for Philly fans is that the Phillies have won seven straight and 20 of their last 24 on the road against the Padres. Mat Latos gets the nod for the Padres. Let me first note this. Three San Diego starters won 14 games last year but Mat Latos, with a 2.93 ERA, was the best of the group. Remember, the Padres were just barely second to the world champion Giants in team ERA last year (SF was an NL-low 3.36 with SD at 3.39). Latos was set to open the season for the Padres in St Louis on March 31 but bursitis was discovered in his shoulder two days after a March 21 spring training start. Latos made is 2011 debut this past Monday at home vs the Reds. “It’s time to get him back on the horse,” manager Bud Black told the Padres’ official website before his first start. “He feels ready. … I think he’s excited for his first start of the year.” His strained shoulder seemed healthy again, as Latos allowed three ERs off two HRs and struck out seven in six innings of 3-2 loss to Cincinnati in his 2011 debut on April 11 . “I made two mistakes in the whole ballgame,” Latos said. “Everything feels fine. Everything feels great. (The shoulder) feels 100 percent.” He allowed five ERs on just four hits in 6.1 innings at Houston on April 16, losing 5-3. Let me remind all that he had a remarkable stretch of 22 starts from May 1 through September 7 last season in which he allowed two ERs or less, an amazing 21 times. His streak ended at 15 straight games in which he allowed no more than two ERs on Sep 7 and then like the rest of his teammates, Latos collapsed down the stretch. He was 0-5 with an 8.08 ERA over his final five starts of the 2010 season. Add in an 0-2 start in 2011 and Latos is on a seven-game losing streak (7.34 ERA) and is now looking to avoid becoming the third Padres’ hurler to lose a team-record eight starts in a row. As much as I like Latos, I don’t want any part of him here.
Rocketman
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Cleveland Indians
Cleveland is 13-5 in all games this year. Cleveland is 8-2 when playing at night this year. Cleveland is 10-2 after a win this season. Cleveland has won 5 of their last 6 games overall. Cleveland bullpen has a 2.86 ERA overall and a 2.22 ERA on the road this season. Josh Tomlin is 3-0 with a 2.75 ERA overall this year. We'll recommend a small play on Cleveland tonight!
Wunderdog
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Vancouver Canucks
Play: Chicago Blackhawks
It looks like the oddsmakers have come to a foregone conclusion that the Canucks will win tonight and advance. We saw a series like this last year that appeared to be heading down that road then all of a sudden a team wins, gets hot and runs the table. I'm not sure if the Blackhawks will accomplish that, but the Stanley Cup Champions aren't going down without a hard fight. Down three games to none, they showed they were not about to quit with a big 7-2 win, and they know this is a series again with a win tonight. The Canucks have been strong all year, but with one chink in the armor as they are just 1-4 following a 3-goal loss or more. The Blackhawks can win this game as they are 26-12 straight-up since last season vs. great teams (those at .600 or better). On the road over that span, they are 18-10 vs. teams that score 3+ goals per game. They are also 30-9 over that span after a home win by 4+ goals. At these odds, I like Chicago.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago Bulls -4
The Bulls are up 2-0 in this series but aren't satisfied because they are yet to get it going offensively. I expect them to finally hit on all cylinders this evening as they go up 3-0 and cover the spread in the process. The Bulls are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games and the Pacers are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Chicago has won its last 11 games and 9 of those victories have come by 5 points or more. Bet the Bulls.
Black Widow
1* on Cleveland Indians -103
We'll side with the Cleveland Indians tonight with their edge on the mound over the Kansas City Royals. Josh Tomlin has a chance to be part of an achievement that only three other sets of Cleveland Indians pitchers have accomplished in more than 90 years. The right-hander looks to become the second Cleveland pitcher in as many days to start 4-0 when he faces the Kansas City Royals on Thursday night at Kauffman Stadium. Tomlin is 3-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.915 WHIP this season. Sean O'Sullivan goes for Kansas City and is easily the weakest link in their rotation. O'Sullivan went 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in two starts versus Cleveland last season. The Indians have been one of the best teams in the league this year. Cleveland is 13-5 while hitting .270 and scoring 5.4 runs/game. This team is the real deal, yet they don't get treated like it. Take the Indians on the Money Line.
Bob Wingerter
Oakland A's vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners
Felix Hernandez’s only win of the season came against Oakland, and the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner will seek to continue his longstanding success against the Athletics when the Seattle Mariners host Oakland on Thursday night. Hernandez’s complete-game victory in the season-opener against Oakland improved his career mark to 10-4 against the Athletics.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Marlins -136
The Pirates have been shut out in each of the first two games of this series. That likely spells trouble considering Florida is an impressive 17-6 in its last 23 games after pitching a shutout. It is winning these contests by an average score of 6.1 to 4.7. Besides, Pittsburgh is a lousy 4-21 in its last 25 games as a road underdog of +100 to +150. The Bucs are losing these contests by an average score of 5.6 to 3.1. In addition, the Pirates are 0-5 in McDonald's last 5 starts and 0-7 in his last 7 road starts. The Marlins are 5-0 in Volstad's last 5 home starts. Take the Fish.
Richard Witt
Heat/Sixers Over 186
Miami's been beating Philly like a drum for a while, and don't expect that to change, but do expect the pace to pick up, as confident Heat will seek to give the scoreboard a bit more of a workout than they have, recently.