SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Chicago (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at Cleveland (2-0, 1-1 ATS)
The eighth-seeded Bulls will try to climb back into this first-round, best-of-7 series when they return home to the United Center for Game 3 against the top-seeded Cavaliers.
Cleveland notched double-digit home victories in Games 1 and 2, following up Saturday’s 96-83 win (as an 1 ½-point chalk) with a 112-102 decision Monday night in which it fell just short as a 10½-point favorite. LeBron James went off in Game 2, tallying 40 points, eight rebounds and eight assists, though no other Cavalier scored more than 14 points. The Cavs shot a whopping 56.3 percent from the floor (40 of 71), including 50 percent from long distance (10 of 20).
Chicago’s Joakim Noah (25 points), Derrick Rose (23) and Luol Deng (20) all reached at least 20 points in the Game 2 defeat, and two additional players hit double figures, but it wasn’t enough for the Bulls, who entered the fourth quarter tied at 77 but got outscored 35-25 in the final stanza. Chicago hit 44.1 percent from the floor but made only 4 of 13 from 3-point range (30.8 percent). The Bulls were sterling at the free-throw line, going 16-for-17, but Cleveland was just as good from the charity stripe (22 of 24).
Cleveland went 26-15 SU (22-18-1 ATS) on the road during the regular season, averaging 101.0 ppg on 47.4 percent shooting. Chicago, which didn’t clinch its playoff spot until winning at on the final night of the season, was 24-17 SU (22-19 ATS) at home, narrowly outscoring visitors (98.0-97.3) while shooting 45.2 percent and allowing 43.0 percent shooting. The Bulls lost five straight home games to start March, but have won five of their last eight at the United Center (4-4 ATS).
Cleveland is 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) in the last eight meetings in this rivalry, though the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests and the home squad is on a 19-9 ATS roll. In addition, the SU winner is 28-3 ATS in the last 31 head-to-head clashes between these Central Division rivals.
The Bulls are on ATS upswings of 13-6 overall (4-1 last five), 18-8-1 against Central Division rivals, 8-1 after a SU loss, 6-2 as an underdog and 24-10 following a spread-cover. However, they remain in ATS ruts of 2-4-1 in first-round playoff games, 4-9 against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-5 going on two days’ rest.
The Cavaliers are on ATS purges of 3-9 overall (1-4 last five), 2-7 as a favorite, 1-5 after a SU win and 2-6 after a non-cover. That said, Cleveland is also 13-4 ATS in its last 17 first-round playoff games (6-1 last seven), 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 outings as a playoff chalk and 25-12-1 ATS in its last 38 following a double-digit SU victory.
The over is on runs for Cleveland of 5-1 as a playoff chalk, 10-4 as a road favorite and 5-1 after a SU win, and Chicago is on “over” stretches of 5-1 in first-round playoff games and 8-1 as a playoff pup. On the flip side, the under is 4-1 in the Cavs’ last five first-round postseason contests, 4-1 in the Bulls last five overall and 7-2 in Chicago’s last nine at the United Center.
Finally, Game 2 went over the total, but the under is still 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall between these Central Division rivals (2-1 in Chicago).
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
L.A. Lakers (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Oklahoma City (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Just 48 hours after nearly pulling off a Game 2 upset, the Thunder will try to get back in this best-of-7 opening round Western Conference matchup when they welcome the Lakers to the Ford Center.
The Lakers had just two players score in double figures Tuesday, but got a superstar performance from Kobe Bryant who finished with 39 points in a 95-92 home win, but the defending NBA champs came up short as six-point favorites. Pau Gasol (25 points, 12 rebounds) also delivered a big game for Los Angeles, which outrebounded the young Thunder 49-37, but shot just 37.5 percent from the floor. Phil Jackson’s squad hasn’t won three straight games since a seven-game winning streak from March 9-24.
Oklahoma City shot just 39.2 percent from the floor Tuesday, but regular-season scoring champ Kevin Durant had a breakout game with 32 points and eight rebounds after going just 7-for-24 in an eight-point Game 1 loss. Going back to the regular season, the Thunder have dropped six of their last eight games following a four-game winning streak. However, Oklahoma City hasn’t lost three in a row since Jan. 22-27 – a stretch of 38 games.
Los Angeles now takes to the road where it went 23-18 (17-23-1 ATS) in the regular season, but dropped four of five (SU and ATS) down the stretch. Inside the Ford Center, the Thunder went 27-14 (22-19 ATS) and finished with an 11-3 run over their final 14 home games (8-6 ATS).
This is the Thunder’s first playoff series since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS), after beating Sacramento 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the opening round. The Lakers’ march to the title last season included a 4-1 (2-3 ATS) series win over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and then 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years.
The Lakers have won 14 of the last 15 (6-9 ATS) in this rivalry. The Thunder have cashed in four of six meetings this season and both of the two games inside the Ford Center.
Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a playoff underdog, but it is otherwise on several ATS skids, including 2-7 as a road ‘dog of less than five points, 1-4 on the road, 3-12-1 after one day off, 0-4 on Thursday and 0-6 after a straight-up win. Oklahoma City is 0-4 ATS in its last four after a spread cover, but it is on positive ATS runs of 48-21 after a straight-up loss, 5-1 after one day off, 12-3 as a favorite of up to 4 ½ points, 19-9 against winning teams and 5-1 on Thursday.
The Lakers are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 7-2 overall, 22-8 on Thursday, 19-7 against Western Conference teams, 11-2 as road ‘dogs and 8-2 after a straight-up win. The Thunder have topped the total in nine of 14 as a favorite and 11 of 16 after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” runs of 4-1 as a favorite, 18-7-1 at home against teams with winning records and 8-2 on Thursday.
In this series, the “under” has been the play in four of the last five in Oklahoma City and four of the last five overall, which each of the first two in this series staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Phoenix (1-1 SU and ATS) at Portland (1-1 SU and ATS)
After stealing home-court advantage in this best-of-7 Western Conference first-round series with a Game 1 win in Phoenix, the Trail Blazers now look to go up 2-1 when the Suns come to the Rose Garden for Game 3.
After dropping Game 1 at home 105-100, the Suns played inspired in Game 2 on Tuesday, blowing out the Blazers 119-90 and cashing as 8½-point home favorites. Jason Richardson led the way for Phoenix with 29 points and Steve Nash dished out 16 assists to help the Suns shoot 52.3 percent from the floor. Martell Webster led Portland with 16 points, but the Blazers shot just 38.2 percent and were outrebounded 43-34.
Phoenix went 22-19 (23-18 ATS) away from home this season but won seven of its final nine on the road (5-4 ATS). The Blazers were 26-15 in the Pacific Northwest (19-21-1 ATS) and won seven of their last nine at the Rose Garden to close the season (5-4 ATS), and that included a meaningless122-116 loss to Golden State as 10-point favorites in the regular-season finale .
Phoenix is back in the postseason after missing out last year. This is the Suns’ 19th postseason appearances in the last 22 years. Portland ended a six-year playoff drought last year, but went one-and-done, falling 4-2 to the Rockets (3-3 ATS) in the opening round.
The Trail Blazers have now won five of the last seven series clashes with the Suns (5-1-1 ATS), including three of five this season (3-1-1 ATS). The chalk has cashed in 19 of the last 28 meetings between these two, and the home team is riding a 6-2-1 ATS streak in the last nine contests. Portland has won and covered the last three battles with Phoenix in the Rose Garden.
Phoenix is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a ‘dog of less than five points and 6-21 ATS in its last 27 on Thursday, but it is otherwise on several positive ATS streaks, including 26-10-1 overall, 12-5 on the road, 35-17-1 after a day off, 13-5-1 after a spread-cover and 10-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Portland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home against teams with winning road records, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 4-0 after a straight-up loss, 22-6 as a favorite of up less than five points and 10-4 as a home favorite in that spread range.
The Suns have topped the total in 14 of 17 Thursday games and five of seven against winning teams, but they are on “under” runs of 6-2-1 as a road underdog, 3-0-1 on the road and 5-1-1 as ‘dogs of less than five points. The Blazers have gone “over” the total in four straight overall and five of six as a chalk of less than five points, but they are on “under” streaks of 11-5 at home, 4-1 after a straight-up loss and 7-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.
In this rivalry, the “over” is 5-2 in the last seven series clashes overall (2-0 in this series) and 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Portland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (9-5) at Atlanta (8-6)
Derek Lowe (3-0, 4.67 ERA) shoots for his fourth win on the young season when he matches up against the ageless Jamie Moyer (1-1, 7.50) and the Phillies in the finale of a three-game series between N.L. East rivals at Turner Field.
One night after a blowing a 3-0 lead with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning and losing 4-3 in 10 innings, Philadelphia bounced back behind a complete-game five-hitter from Roy Halladay and topped Atlanta 2-0 on Wednesday. The victory snapped the Phillies’ three-game losing skid, but the offense continues to struggle, managing just six runs in the last four games after exploding for 77 runs in their first 10 contests.
Philadelphia is still in slumps of 2-4 overall (all against the A.L. East) and 1-4 on Thursday, but the two-time defending N.L. champs are 6-2 on the road this year and 7-2 in their last nine against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, Atlanta is still 5-2 in its last seven games (following a 1-4 slump), but Bobby Cox’s crew has now dropped seven of its last eight against N.L. East foes.
The Braves took 10 of 18 meetings with Philadelphia last year, but the Phillies are still 14-6 in their last 20 contests at Turner Field.
The 47-year-old Moyer has pitched six innings in his first two starts (at Houston, vs. Florida), but he gave up five runs in each contest. Philadelphia overcame the shaky outing against the Astros, winning 9-6, but lost 5-1 to the Marlins on Saturday despite Moyer’s seven strikeouts. Dating to last season, the Phillies have lost six of Moyer’s last seven starts overall, but they’re 6-2 in his last eight road efforts, 36-16 in his last 52 against division foes and 4-1 in his last five Thursday contests.
Moyer’s only start against the Braves in 2009 came in the first week of the season, and he gave up four runs on eight hits in five innings, losing 4-0. The southpaw has allowed 22 runs (all earned) over 32 innings in his last five starts against Atlanta (6.19 ERA), pitching between 5 and 5 2/3 innings in all five games. For his career, he’s 4-9 with a 5.49 ERA against the Braves, including 1-2 with a 5.46 ERA in five outings at Turner Field.
Lowe survived a shaky Opening Day performance (five runs allowed in six innings) to beat the Cubs 16-5, but he’s been much sharper in his last two games against the Giants and Rockies (four earned runs allowed in 11 1/3 innings). Behind Lowe, Atlanta is on surges of 16-5 overall, 9-2 at home, 5-1 against the N.L. East, 4-0 in the third game of a series and 13-3 versus winning teams. The Braves have scored 32 runs in his three starts this season.
Lowe is 2-0 with a 6.35 ERA in two home starts this season, and he’s 6-1 with a 2.56 ERA and two saves in 14 appearances (10 starts) against the Phillies. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in all 10 starts, and last year – his first with Atlanta – he went 2-0 with a 1.37 ERA in three games versus Philly, giving up three runs on 17 hits and three walks in 19 2/3 innings. The Braves won all three games.
Despite staying under the total in their last four games in a row, the Phillies remain on a slew of “over” runs, including 27-10-2 overall, 18-8 on the road, 8-4 versus division rivals, 19-8-2 against right-handed starters, 4-0-1 on Thursday and 9-2 in the third game of a series. However, with Moyer pitching, the under is on runs of 5-1 on the road, 7-2 against the N.L. East and 10-4 on Thursday.
The under is 6-1 in Atlanta’s last seven at home and 4-1-1 in its last six versus division rivals. However, the over is 5-2 in the Braves’ last seven on Thursday, and with Lowe starting the over is on surges of 8-1-2 overall, 4-0-1 at home, 5-1-1 versus the N.L. East.
Finally, the under has cashed in nine of the last 12 meetings between these teams overall and seven of the last nine at Turner Field, with the first two games in this series staying below the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (8-7) at L.A. Angels (8-8)
Tigers ace Justin Verlander (1-0, 6.88) tries once again for his first victory of 2010 when he matches up against Angels lefty Joe Saunders (1-2, 4.26) as these teams wrap up a four-game series at Angel Stadium.
Los Angeles took a five-game winning streak into Wednesday’s game but it blew a 3-0 lead, with closer Brian Fuentes giving up two runs in the top of the ninth inning to suffer the 4-3 loss. The Angeles, who lost seven of their first 10 games to start the season, are still on runs of 19-7 on Thursday and 4-1 against right-handed starters, and they’ve surrendered just 18 runs during their current 5-1 run.
Detroit has still dropped five of seven and six of nine since a four-game winning streak. During this slump, the Tigers have lost four of six – all against the A.L. West – on their season-long 11-game road trip. On the bright side, Detroit is 7-3 in its last 10 games against lefty starters.
Los Angeles has owned this rivalry in recent years, winning 49 of the last 71 meetings overall and 36 of the last 52 at Angel Stadium.
After giving up 10 runs in 10 innings in his first two starts, Verlander pitched his best game of the season Saturday at Seattle, yielding three runs on seven hits with six strikeouts in seven innings. Ironically, though, the Tigers bailed Verlander out in his first two games – beating Kansas City 8-4 (on the road) and Cleveland (9-8 at home) – but he got saddled with a 4-2 loss at Seattle. The Tigers are still 5-1 in Verlander’s last six starts overall and 46-19 in his last 65 when coming off four days of rest.
Verlander (0-1, 5.25 ERA in two road starts this year) faced the Angels three times last year. He gave up a combined 11 runs and 19 hits in 10 2/3 innings (9.28 ERA) in two games in Anaheim, but the Tigers outslugged L.A. 12-10 and 10-7. In between, Verlander held the Angels to four hits and four walks in eight scoreless innings, but Detroit fell 2-1 at home. Verlander is 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in six career starts versus the Angels, with his only two appearances at Angel Stadium coming last season.
Like Verlander, Saunders got rocked in his first two starts, surrendering nine runs in 11 innings in home losses to the Twins (5-3) and A’s (9-4). However, he bounced back with a dominating effort at Toronto on Saturday, giving up two unearned runs on five hits in eight innings, rolling to a 6-3 victory.
Although the Angels are just 1-4 in Saunders’ last five starts going back to 2009, they’ve won 36 of his last 53 home games, four of his last five versus the A.L. Central and five straight when he pitches on Thursday. And while Saunders is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA at home this year, he’s still 26-10 with a 3.86 ERA in 44 career starts at Angel Stadium. The 28-year-old is also 1-1 with a 5.18 ERA in seven starts against Detroit, but in four home games against the Tigers he’s given up 15 runs in 20 1/3 innings (6.64 ERA).
Detroit is on “over” runs of 5-0 on Thursday, 4-1 in the fourth game of a series, 6-1-1 with Verlander starting and 4-1 with Verlander pitching on the highway. On the flip side, the Tigers carry “under” trends of 6-2 against the A.L. West, 36-17-1 against lefty-handed starters and 5-2 when Verlander squares off against A.L. West opponents.
The Halos are on “under” stretches of 37-16-3 overall, 12-2-1 against the A.L. Central, 23-10-2 against right-handed starters, 36-17-3 in the fourth game of a series, 5-1 with Saunders starting and 4-0 with Saunders facing the A.L. Central. However, nine of Saunders’ last 13 starts at Angel Stadium have topped the total.
Also, the under is 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Marc Lawrence
New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
The Yankees conclude a three game series with the A's this afternoon when C.CC. Sabathia faces Dallas Braden in Oakland this afternoon. While both hurlers enter this fray in terrific KW ratio form, we note Sabathia has struggled in this park (his hometown), going 3-6 in his career team starts - including 1-5 with a 7.08 ERA in his last six efforts. With Braden 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his last five team starts in April, look for the A's to pull the surprise here today.
DUNKEL INDEX
LA Lakers at Oklahoma City
The Lakers look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. LA is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+3 1/2)
Game 733-734: Cleveland at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.385; Chicago 119.383
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 4; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-3 1/2); Over
Game 735-736: LA Lakers at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 122.375; Oklahoma City 120.556
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+3 1/2); Under
Game 737-738: Phoenix at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 126.695; Portland 122.025
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 1; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+1); Over
MLB
Florida at Houston
The Marlins look to take advantage of a Houston team that is 1-11 in Felipe Paulino's last 12 starts as an underdog. Florida is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Florida (-130)
Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 14.867; Pittsburgh (McCutchen) 14.673
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-165); Over
Game 953-954: Colorado at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 15.144; Washington (Hernandez) 14.780
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-180); Over
Game 955-956: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Padilla) 14.516; Cincinnati (Leake) 15.034
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+100); Over
Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Gorzelanny) 14.428; NY Mets (Santana) 15.615
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-170); Over
Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.303; Atlanta (Lowe) 14.859
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Over
Game 961-962: Florida at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 15.436; Houston (Paulino) 14.982
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-130); Under
Game 963-964: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Talbot) 14.599; Minnesota (Baker) 16.689
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-210); Under
Game 965-966: NY Yankees at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.025; Oakland (Braden) 15.485
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-180); Under
Game 967-968: Texas at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wilson) 14.598; Boston (Buchholz) 15.857
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Under
Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.565; White Sox (Peavy) 15.743
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-115); Under
Game 971-972: Detroit at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 14.894; LA Angels (Saunders) 16.569
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+105); Under
NHL
Chicago at Nashville
The Blackhawks look to take advantage of a Nashville team that is 4-11 in its last 15 playoff games as an underdog. Chicago is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-155)
Game 57-58: Philadelphia at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.608; New Jersey 12.531
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-165); Over
Game 59-60: Ottawa at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.379; Pittsburgh 11.749
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-300); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-300); Over
Game 61-62: Chicago at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.498; Nashville 12.187
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-155); Under
Game 63-64: Colorado at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.970; San Jose 11.401
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+210); Under
Marc Lawrence
New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
The Yankees conclude a three game series with the A's this afternoon when C.CC. Sabathia faces Dallas Braden in Oakland this afternoon. While both hurlers enter this fray in terrific KW ratio form, we note Sabathia has struggled in this park (his hometown), going 3-6 in his career team starts - including 1-5 with a 7.08 ERA in his last six efforts. With Braden 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his last five team starts in April, look for the A's to pull the surprise here today.
Steve Merril
Tigers vs. Angels
Play: Over: 8.5
Two underachieving pitchers go at it in Anaheim as Justin Verlander takes on Joe Saunders. Detroit awarded Verlander with a big contract in the off-season, but he hasn’t lived up to it so far. He's 0-1 with a 6.88 ERA in three starts this season, getting hit hard in all three of those games. Verlander went 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA against the Angels after facing them three times last season. In the two games in Anaheim, Verlander gave up 11 runs and 19 hits in 10.7 innings of work. The Angels are hitting .319 against Verlander with Torii Hunter (10-29), Bobby Abreu (5-13), Hideki Matsui (4-12), Maicer Izturis (5-12), Kendry Morales (4-9) and Erick Aybar (4-9) all doing the best. The Angels will start Joe Saunders who is 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA this season. He's 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA at home in two starts. The left hander also faced the Tigers last season giving up 11 runs in 16 innings with two of those three games going Over the total. Magglio Ordonez (8-20), Miguel Cabrera (3-10), Carlos Guillen (4-9) and Adam Everett (4-9) have hit the ball the best against Saunders. Detroit is averaging 4 runs per game against left-handed starters this season, and since the Angels have scored 4 runs or more in 9 of their 16 games this season, we expect a high-scoring game tonight.
Cajun Sports
Phoenix Suns vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -1
The Phoenix Suns and Portland Trailblazers series moves to the Rose Garden on Thursday evening for Game 3 of their best-of-seven with it all tied up at a game apiece. This after the Suns bounced back from a Game 1 home loss and defeated the Blazers handily 119 to 90 on Tuesday night in Game 2. The news is not good for the Suns though because teams that failed to win Game 1 of a best-of-seven series have only advanced twenty-one percent of the time. The Suns are only 1-7 SU in the playoffs since 2007 and face a rather tough road here because they have not had much success at the Rose Garden. They have lost three of the five meetings this season including the only game played here. In that game the Blazers came back from a fifteen point deficit outscoring the Suns 35 to 21 in the fourth quarter and held on for the 105 to 102 win. In this series the home team is 6-2-1 ATS the last nine meetings while the favorite is 19-7-2 ATS the last 28. A check of our database reveals two league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s contest and support the host here. The first system tells us to Play AGAINST a playoff road team from Game 2 on of a series when facing an opponent seeking revenge for a road SU loss of twenty-one or more points. These playoff road teams are a miserable 0-9 ATS since 2008 failing to cover by more than fourteen points per game. Our second system says to Play ON a playoff team (not an underdog of seven or more points) off a playoff loss of twenty-two or more points in their last game and not a SU win of six or more points in its playoff game prior to that loss. These play on teams are 13-0 ATS since 2003 and averages covering the spread by more than eleven points per game. We expect the Blazers to control the pace and tempo in tonight’s contest and this has proven to be the deciding factor in this series so far. Lay the short price as the Blazers grab an all important Game 3 victory on Thursday night at the Rose Garden.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Portland Trailblazers 98 Phoenix Suns 90
Craig Trapp
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Los Angeles Lakers +3
Championship teams are separated from the pack when they go on the road. LAL have not been super impressive the first two games but they still do enough to win. Expect about the same as OKC plays its first playoff game. Kobe was amazing on Tuesday going for 39, tonight he will do about the same as he keeps LA in it most of the game. Three point shooting for LAL has been really bad outside of Kobe, expect it to get much better tonight. Lakers win in a very close one!
Matt Fargo
3* Washington Nationals
I think we know why this price is so high. Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off his no-hitter in his last start and if ever there is a letdown, this is it. Colorado is just 2-5 in its last seven games and is a game worse than Washington right now yet it is being asked to lay the big price behind Jimenez. He is no doubt turning into one of the best pitchers in the league and he is three-for-three in quality starts so far this season but this spot does not set up well. He will be opposed by Livan Hernandez who has gotten off to a solid start as well, tossing quality performances in his first two starts. He shut down both the Mets and Brewers by not allowing a run in either of those games. He threw his first shutout in six years last time out and while the letdown theory can also be placed on his shoulders, I think he continues his slid start and at this price, it is definitely worth a shot.
Jim Feist
Rangers vs. Red Sox
Play: Under 9
Reason: It's not your imagination: The Red Sox aren't scoring runs this season, 9th in the AL. Normally they are a powerful offensive machine with a high on base percentage, but bringing in Mike Cameron (who's now on the DL) and Adrian Beltre means two guys who don't draw walks. No one is hitting, with JD Drew and David Ortiz in huge slumps. A pair of good young arms are on the mound in C.J. Wilson of Texas (2.08 ERA) and Clay Buchholz (1.80 ERA) of Boston. Both are excellent strikeout pitchers, a plus in Fenway park, and have had good success against the opponent. Play the Rangers/Red Sox Under the total.
JR O'Donnell
OAK (+160) vs NYY
The Yankees big horse CC is off to a stellar start in 2010 as he traditionally is a slow starter. Jr's camp has a huge value play here on the pesky Oakland A's ( + 160 ) with D. Braden. Braden has the mojo to throw a gem this afternoon and the A's do own a 3-0 mark when he pitches. Looking at the Big Guy, CC has struggled @ Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum and owns a 6+ ERA at that park and he has 5.70 ERA and a sub par 5-7 mark vs these scrappy A's in his career. The Yankees are the public side No one but Jr's camp will go against the Yankees who are steaming right now and there Ace is going. MLB winners are all about picking spots and we are grabbing a live + 160 dog here that bites in Oakland !
James Patricks Sports
Flyers vs. Devils
The New Jersey Devils have dug themselves a huge hole in their playoff series with Philadelphia and we look for New Jersey Devils to win at home and extend their series in the Eastern Conference of the NHL.
Karl Garrett
Cleveland (-4) at CHICAGO
I am 14-7 the last 3 weeks with my comp plays.
Cleveland has been asked to cover double-digits twice in the first 2 games of this series. They were successful in Game One, winning by 13 as the 11 1/2-point favorite. They just missed in Game Two, winning by 10 points as the 10 1/2-point favorite.
Tonight the venue changes, but I don't see the result changing, as the Cavaliers appear to be a man up in each position on the court in this series. Chicago had Game Two deadlocked on Monday, only to see the Cavaliers outscore them by 10 in the final quater of play.
The Cavs have recorded a 22-18-1 road spread mark this season, and outright they have gone 26-15 on the highway this year.
Cleveland has taken Chicago's best shot, and they have still won by double-digits twice. I just don't see anything changing tonight, even on Chicago's home hardwood.
Cavs minus the points for the road win and cover as King James and Co. put a stranglehold on this series.
5♦ CLEVELAND
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Dodgers (-110) at CINCINNATI
I'm on an 84-62-3 FREE play run and tonight I've got a winner for you on the National League diamond as I go with the Dodgers to get the win in Cincinnati against the Reds.
I’m going with the hard-hitting Dodgers in the rubber-match of this series as they have been just tearing the cover off the ball lately.
Los Angeles has scored five runs or more in eight of their last 10 contests and just wiped out the Reds on Wednesday, winning 14-6 and getting big hits from Rafael Furcal, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp – who has been the hottest bat in the National League this season.
The Dodgers have won four of their last six while Cincinnati has dropped six of their last seven overall.
On the hill today for Los Angeles is Vicente Padilla (1-1, 8.04 ERA) who was solid in his last outing at home against the Giants, allowing three runs on four hits over seven innings and striking out seven in a 10-8 Dodgers’ victory. As a starter with the Rangers, and previously the Phillies, Padilla and his teams won five of six starts against the Reds.
Mike Leake (0-0, 2.63 ERA) is on the hill for the Reds, allowing four runs in 13.2 innings of work this season. He allowed three runs on seven hits in a 4-3 loss to the Pirates on Friday and his big problem this season has been walks, as he’s allowed 12 base-on-balls, while striking out just eight. If he walks several Dodgers, their big bats will certainly make him pay.
Los Angeles has won eight of its last 11 in Cincinnati and 16 of 21 on Thursday. The Reds are 8-23 against N.L. West teams and 1-4 as a ‘dog. Love the Dodgers tonight, lay the chalk with Los Angeles.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS
Sac Lawson
MIL -1.5 (+100) vs PIT
This is one of those times where the Moneyline is a pointless proposition in my mind. There is no need for us to risk an extra 60 cents as insurance for a one run game. Milwaukee either continues to blow out Pittsburgh, or Pittsburgh wins outright, that's how I see it.
I know the numbers thus far aren't pretty with Randy Wolf, but the guy is with yet another new team this year, and I've stated from day one that it's tough to back a guy in his first few starts with a new team because the spring workouts simply aren't what he used to, and chances are he simply won't be ready. Now we're to the fourth start, and Wolf is facing a team he's had some success against in the past. Over the last three seasons, Wolf has posted an ERA in the low 3's and a 4-0 mark against this pirates club.
On the other side we've got the youngster, Daniel McCutchen. Don't get me wrong, there is a lot of pressure on this kid, and I can understand how fighting for that 5th starter spot could be tough, and it could be the reason we're not seeing him pitch to his abilities. Regardless, he gives up too many walks, and has yet to show much poise when he gets himself into a jam. I know a lot of people are going to bet on Milwaukee just based on a McCutchen-Fade, and I'm definitely not recommending that, but the fact that he's on the mound definitely doesn't deter us from betting against Pitt.
Fact is, the true reason I love Milwaukee tonight is because they're hot.. Simple as that. This is a team with a dangerous lineup that happens to be swinging some hot bats right now. Pittsburgh has fallen back to earth a bit over the last few games, and Milwaukee is on the rise. I love our general lineup advantage here, and I think we've got a starting pitching advantage as well, and we surely have a bullpen advantage on top of that. Milwaukee's pen sports a terrible ERA but that's only because of TWO people's struggles.. Hawkins and Hoffman at the back end of the pen. Both of whom are talented, proven pitchers that I'm not going to worry too much about. Milwaukee wins this one in their third straight blowout of the Pirates! 1 unit RUNLINE.
Sean Higgs
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
Moyer is 2-5 with a 5.46 ERA vs Atlanta. Father time may have finally caught up with Moyer as he has been terrible to start the year, going 1-1 with 7.50 ERA giving up 15 hits in 12 innings. After facing Big Boy Roy last night, it is going to seem like facing double A pitching tonight with the junk throwing Moyer on the hill.