BIG AL
Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets
PICK: New York Mets
The Mets have yet to win a series this season, going 0-4 thus far, but are poised to finally break through, provided they can win tonight, and thus win 3 of the 4 games vs. the Cubs. And, fortunately for the Mets, they'll hand the ball to their best pitcher, veteran lefty Johan Santana. He's dominated the Cubs, with a 2-0 record and a 1.69 ERA and in his last start vs. Chicago, he struck out 10 Cubbies en route to a 6-2 win. Tom Gorzelanny, in contrast, has struggled vs. New York in his career, with a 1-2 record, and a dismal 7.05 ERA (and a 1.95 WHIP). Gorzelanny is also winless on the season, as Chicago has dropped both of his starts, primarily because its offense has had no punch in his outings (2 runs per game). The Cubs are a horrid 11-31 as an underdog, while Santana is a spectacular 102-33 as a favorite priced at -150 or higher. Take the New York Mets.
Tom Freese
Detroit at La Angels
Detroit is 36-17-1 UNDER vs. lefty starters and they are 20-8-2 UNDER their last 30 vs. AL West teams. The Tigers are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 road games and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 games with the Angels. Detroit is 6-1-1 UNDER as favorites of -110 to -150 and they are 5-2 UNDER with Verlander vs. AL West teams. The Angels are 37-16-3 UNDER their last 56 games overall and they are 23-10-2 UNDER their last 33 games vs. righty starters. Joe Saunders 5-1 UNDER his last starts overall. The Angels are 15-5-2 UNDER vs. AL Central teams. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cubs at Mets
Play: Under
Two hot pitchers meet up in the Big Apple when Tom Gorzelanny and the Cubs take on Johan Santana and the Mets. Gorzelanny comes in with an ERA of 1.93, while Santana is coming off a zero-run, seven inning performance against St. Louis and has an ERA of 3.00. And while both pitchers are off to good starts, their teams offenses are not. The Cubs are hitting just .217 in road games, while the Mets are batting just .229 on the season. We expect the pitchers form to continue here. Take the Under.
BEN BURNS
Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks
PICK: San Jose Sharks
The Sharks have dominated this series and could easily have won it already, or at least be up at 3-1. Now, they're back home and have a chance to take control of the series. I believe that they're the much stronger team and I expect them to make the most of tonight's opportunity.
Looking at the last three games and we find that the Sharks have outshot the Avalanche by a completely commanding 148-73 margin over the last three games. Given how much they've dominated play and that they've gone 11-4 the last 15 times that they were a host in this series, I feel the current price, which seems steep at first glance, is actually very fair.
SEAN MURPHY
Ottawa Senators @ Pittsburgh Penguins
PICK: Pittsburgh Penguins
The price is obviously far too steep for me to recommend this as a paid selection, but I am confident that the Penguins will close out the Senators on Thursday night, and they would be a solid addition to any parlay bets you're considering.
Pittsburgh won both games in Ottawa, outscoring the Senators 11-6, to take complete control of this series. The Pens did allow four goals on Tuesday night, and that's key. Note that they've gone a perfect 9-0 after allowing four goals or more in a game during their last two playoff runs (reaching the Stanley Cup Final both times).
I talked about this in my analysis of Game 4 of this series, and it's worth mentioning again today; it seems as if the Senators woke up a sleeping giant with their physical play at the start of this series. The Penguins simply weren't engaged in Game 1, and fell behind 1-0 in the series as a result. We've seen a completely different team over the last three games however. In fact, you could argue that they've played their best hockey of the entire season over the last three contests.
The biggest obstacle for the Senators right now might be their play between the pipes. Brian Elliot hasn't been good. He was yanked for Pascal Leclaire last game, and it's still unknown who will get the start tonight. I'm not sure that it even matters at this point. The Senators end of the rink looked like a shooting gallery on Tuesday, with the Pens firing 42 shots on goal.
I don't expect any sort of letdown from the Penguins, even though they have three chances to close this series out. This is a team that has reached the Stanley Cup Finals in each of the last two years. They realize that it's a long road and earning extra rest when you have the chance is important. The Senators will battle hard, but I expect them to fall short for the fourth consecutive game. Take Pittsburgh.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Phillies @ Braves
PICK: Under 9.5
Assuming that the Phillies would keep up the high-scoring barrage that carried the way to a 7-1 start has been a costly mistake. Philadelphia scored just four runs in a three game span from Saturday to Monday and keep in mind the early season production came with a schedule that included six games against Washington and three games in offense-friendly Houston. The Phillies scored 81 runs in the first 13 games of the season but in games not against the Nationals, the Phillies have scored just over four runs per game.
Jamie Moyer has poor numbers through two starts but he actually pitched well his last time out despite allowing five runs and taking the loss. Moyer struck out seven and allowed just six hits in that game. While Moyer continues to get older he has proven to be a successful starter in this league the last two years and the Braves have struggled against left-handed pitching. While Philadelphia’s bullpen had a historic meltdown on Tuesday to burn a 3-0 lead with two outs in the ninth inning, the unit has done a fine job for the most part this season even with a few key pitchers on the DL.
Atlanta’s bullpen has been outstanding this season but with reliable starter Derek Lowe on the mound there may not be a great need for relief innings tonight. Lowe is 3-0 this season and after a marginal first outing he has allowed just eleven hits and four runs over his past two starts. Lowe has walked more batters than normal so far this season and the numbers should get even better once he gets a handle of his control. Lowe pitched well in both meetings against the NL champion Phillies last season including besting Cliff Lee the last time he faced Philadelphia.
Atlanta is batting just .230 for the season and the production for Philadelphia has taken a big fall in recent games. Turner Field has been a tough hitting park so far this season with a collective .226 batting average for the year and an average of just 8.5 runs per game, including the 21-run opening game for the Braves. With the Phillies involved there will be an inflated total on this match-up but with two quality veteran starters this contest is unlikely to get out of hand for either team.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays +103
Bottom Line: The Rays are the more explosive offensive team, averaging 5.9 runs per game on the road compared to the 3.6 the Sox are averaging at home. Plus, Peavy is off to a rocky start for the Sox with a 6.00 ERA and a WHIP of 1.500. I've backed Peavy a lot in his career, but I have to go against him tonight. The Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog and 14-3 in their last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter. Shields have struggled on the road at times, but the Rays are 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record and 7-2 in his last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The White Sox are just 8-21 in their last 29 during game 3 of a series, and I expect them to drop another Game 3 tonight.
EZWINNERS
Colorado Rockies -172
The Rockies Ubaldo Jimenez began to establish himself as one of the majors' top young pitchers last year and is quickly establishing himself as an ace pitcher in the Major Leagues. Jimenez has been dominant so far this season throwing the first Rockies no-hitter in franchise history in his last start against Atlanta and he has an ERA of only 1.29 in his three starts this year. Jimenez is is 2-1 lifetime with a 3.96 ERA against the Nats but has taken his game to a higher level since he last faced Washington. The Nats send Livian Hernandez to the mound who has pitched to absolute gems so far this season. Hernandez has allowed just nine base hits and five walks this season over 16 innings and has yet to allow a run with a 2-0 record for the lowly Nationals. I don't expect that to continue. Hernandez has a 7-9 record against the Rockies in his career with a 4.34 ERA over 25 starts and his lack of strikeouts will be a problem against a solid hitting Rockies team. Colorado is 23-7 in the last thirty meetings between these teams and I expect that dominance to continue. Play on Colorado.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +1.52 over N.Y. METS
The Mets are batting a collective .229 as a team but over its last five games they’re batting .198. Hell, they even had trouble hitting two position players last Sunday in that 20-inning marathon when that genius Tony LaRussa, used SS Felipe Lopez and OF Joe Mather to pitch in the 19th and 20th innings respectively with the game tied 0-0. Tom Gorzelanny has great stats against Mets hitters. He has allowed just two extra base hits in 32 AB’s. As a collection of hitters, the Mets are hitting just .156 against Gorzelanny and he’s off to a good start this season. In his season debut in Cincinnati, Gorzelanny pitched into the seventh inning and did not give up an earned run. He also kept the ball down and induced 10 groundouts to just six pop-ups. The Cubbies bats are a concern too but they’re hitting 50 points better than the Mets over the past five games. Johan Santana has two quality starts and one shaky one but his ground ball to fly-ball ratio should be a huge concern for anyone thinking of laying the lumber. Santana’s recorded fly-outs (32) are almost twice the amount of induced groundouts (17) and that’s a sign of bad things to come. The Nats hit him hard in his second start of the year. So, what we have here is a very nice tag on the Cubbies against a team that is fighting it miserably to score anything and one has to believe the Cubs chances of winning are as good or even better than the feeble Mets chances. Play: Chicago +1.52 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +1.84 over MINNESOTA (1st 5 innings)
Note the 1:10 PM EST start. The Twins are playing great ball and now sit at 11-4, which makes this one of less importance when you consider it’s a day game after a night game. Not that the Twins won’t want to win but when you’re 11-4 and you’re playing a day game after a night game, the manager will very often give some bench players some time and this is the perfect spot for that to occur. Furthermore, Mark Talbot is a guy that has pitched well and the Twins have yet to see him. Talbot pitched a complete game against CWS last week and his 2010 ground-ball/line-drive/fly-out ratios of 56/18/27 are very impressive indeed. That’s always a good indicator to see if a guy has been lucky or not and Talbot has not, he’s been very good. Scott Baker has pitched well in two of three starts. With this guy, it’s always been hit and miss and while he could certainly throw another gem against this struggling line-up, fact is Baker could give up some runs when you consider that current Cleveland hitters have nine HR’s in 218 AB’s against Baker. With the Twins having never seen Talbot and with likely a few reserves starting, the play here is the Tribe in five. Overlay. Play: Cleveland +1.84 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.06 over CHICAGO
The Rays are 11-4 while the South Side is 5-10. That alone makes the visitors a worthy wager here. Also consider that the White Sox have been seeing BB’s all year and were shutout again last night. Thus far, the White Sox have scored just 57 runs while the Rays have scored 83. Furthermore, the Rays are 8-1 vs righties and have scored more runs against right-handed pitchers than any team in either league. Jake Peavy has faced the Indians twice and the Jays once and those two are among the worst hitting teams in the majors. By contrast, James Shields has faced the Orioles, Red Sox and Yanks and while the O’s are pitiful, the Yanks and Red Sox are not. Give every single edge to the Rays and after beating the South Side 12-0 last night they’re very likely itching to get back out there tonight. Play: Tampa Bay +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee –1½ +1.08 over PITTSBURGH
Note the 12:35 PM EST start. Randy Wolf has made three starts and for the most part he’s been very ordinary but he’s faced three solid hitting line-ups in Colorado, St. Louis and Washington and will take a big step down in class when facing the Pirates. Additionally, Wolf has had a lot of success against this collection of Pitt hitters. In 68 ABs, they hit just .221 against him and overall, over its last five games, the Pirates are batting .205. To make matters worse, the Pirates will send out its number five man in the rotation and being the fifth man in the Bucs rotation pretty much says it all. Daniel McCutchen has struggled mightily since being named the fifth starter. In two outings covering 7.1 innings, he has allowed three bombs and has just three Ks. Furthermore, the Brewers have won three straight and has scored eight runs or more in all three games for a total of 27 runs scored over that stretch. It’s unlikely they or their bats will slow down here. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
Larry Ness
BOS (-150) vs TEX
The Red Sox were swept at home by the Rays over the weekend in a four-game series, so the struggling Rangers have been "just what the doctor ordered" for Red Sox nation. It's been no "walk in the park," but Boston has taken the first two games of this three-game series with Texas, last night winning 8-7 when Kevin Youkilis delivered a two-out RBI double in the 12th inning. The night before, Boston's Darnell McDonald had a walk-off single to give the Red Sox a 7-6 win. As for the Rangers, they've now lost six in a row, which is the longest active losing streak in MLB. CJ Wilson will get the nod for Texas and Clay Buchholz for Boston. Wilson's career began back in 2005, going 1-7 with a 6.94 ERA in 24 appearances (just six starts). From 2006-09 he made 234 appearances, all in relief, posting a 3.77 ERA and earning 51 saves. He struck out nine and allowed five hits over seven innings in his return to the rotation on April 8, although the Rangers lost, 3-1. Wilson was scratched from his scheduled start a week ago Wednesday when a couple of the Rangers were stricken with food poisoning but took the mound last Friday in New York vs the Yankees. Working on seven days' rest, he pitched six innings (allowed seven hits and five runs, just three earned), getting hurt by control problems (three walks) and first baseman Chris Davis throwing error during New York's three-run fourth (game was called after six innings with the Yankees winning 5-1). He'll now face the Red Sox in Fenway, who have gone an impressive 33-16 at Fenway vs lefties in 2008 and 2009, including 25-12 in night games, averaging 6.3 RPG. Clay Buchholz owns the lowest ERA of any Boston starter (1.80) but neither of his two starts this year have been 'pretty.' He gave up four unearned runs in the first inning on Saturday vs the Rays and left after the fifth inning of a 6-5 Boston loss. Everyone remembers his no-hitter back in 2007 but he went just 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA in 16 appearances (15 starts) in 2008 (team was 3-12 ). He was 7-7 with a 4.21 ERA in 16 starts last year (team was 11-5) and the Red Sox are hoping he's ready to be a regular part of the rotation in 2010. We'll see. He is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in two starts against the Rangers, beating them here in Fenway April 21, 2008, scattering five hits while fanning six in six scoreless innings of an 8-3 victory. However, that's not much to go on. However, Wilson is surely a HUGE question mark for the Rangers and who knows how long his return to the rotation will last? His first two outings have been good but let's remember that back in 2005 (his first try as a starter), he was 0-5 with a 12.05 ERA and an opponents' batting average of .441 in six starts. I'm taking the Red Sox to sweep.
Stephen Nover
Phoenix (-1) at PORTLAND
Portland got its split in Phoenix, but the crippled Trail Blazers lack the personnel to execute the right blueprint to beat the Suns.
As the Spurs showed for many years in the playoffs, the way to defeat the racehorse Suns is with physical defense, destroying any tempo and rhythm Phoenix can get. The Trail Blazers are solid, but they are from an elite team minus injured Brandon Roy and center Greg Oden.
If the Suns are focused - and they should be needing to regain homecourt advantage - they have the key ingredients to establish their style of play with Steve Nash and Amare Stoudamire. Phoenix has proved itself on the road, covering 12 of its last 17 road contests.
Suns coach Alvin Gentry made a key adjusting following his team's Game 1 loss. He put forwards Grant Hill and Jared Dudley on point guard Andre Miller instead of Jason Richardson.
Free to concentrate on offense, Richardson responded with 29 points while Hill and Dudley clamped down on Miller. Miller's is a physical point guard. He's not quick or an effective 3-point shooter. Yet the Trail Blazers are forced to put a big burden on Miller because Rudy Fernandez has been totally ineffective bringing the ball and setting up the offense. He also hasn't been playing any defense or making shots, missing seven of nine shots from the floor.
The Suns made 52.3 percent of their shots from the floor in their Game 2 waltz. It's doubtful the Suns can shoot like that again, but they still should hit a decent percentage having outscored Portland, 58-38, in the paint making may short shots. They can do this again thanks to Nash, who gives them a huge edge at point guard.
Marcus Camby is the Trail Blazers' only reliable rebounder. Look for the Suns to go after the foul-prone Camby and forward LaMarcus Aldridge, who has to step up with Roy out. Aldridge has missed 20 of 28 shots from the floor and could be feeling the pressure.
3♦ SUNS
Chris Jordan
Cleveland at MINNESOTA
Looking for the sweep in this early game, I love the Twins with Scott Baker toeing the slab for the surging Twins.
The right-handed, flyball pitcher is 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his last seven against the Indians. And today's outing could be the easiest of them all. The Indians rank last in the majors in batting average (.215) and near the bottom in runs (46).
Baker's quick, short arm action becomes effective with his a sneaky 90- to 94-mile per hour heater that has late life up in the zone. He has a knack for commanding his fastball to both sides of the dish, and knows when to mix in a curveball to both lefthanded and righthanded batters. He's also capable of throwing a short, late-breaking slider and an above-average changeup.
Baker, who tends to work ahead in the count , was effective for the second straight outing in a victory over the Royals at Target Field, where he allowed two runs and struck out six during a 10-3 victory on Friday. He only threw 92 pitches against Kansas City, and that was after giving up just one run in his previous start against the White Sox in a 2-1 win.
He should get plenty of run support from the Twins, who are batting .290 and averaging 6.0 runs while going 6-2 at their new outdoor stadium.
Twins roll in this one.
2♦ TWINS -1.5
Scott Delaney
Rockies at Nationals
Now 12-4 with complimentary baseball selections on this young season, including last night's Under in the Phils/Braves game. I'm going to continue with a total, as I like the Under in the Rockies/Nationals contest.
Let's start with Colorado, which will go with Ubaldo Jimenez, who is in off his no-hit preformance of the Braves last week. He's now 3-0 this season and has a 0.86 ERA after striking out seven and setting down the final 12 batters he faced to finish the job.
With the Nationals, Livan Hernandez looks young again, as the 35-year-old right-hander handcuffed the Brewers with his off-speed pitches and precise location, moving the ball all around the plate, and controlling it perfectly when he kept the ball down. Hernandez is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA.
The numbers are in my favor, as the Under is 4-0 in Jimenez's last four starts against Washington, while the low number is 4-1 in Hernandez's last five starts against Colorado.
Play this one Under.
2♦ Rockies/Nationals UNDER
Scott Spreitzer
Tigers at Angels
Detroit is 3,00 miles from home and starter Justin Verlander (0-1) has struggled, with a 6.88 ERA. He’s always had trouble with the Angels, at 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in 37 innings, allowing 60 base runners. I like LA lefty Joe Saunders, an under the radar type guy who knows how to pitch and win. He’s off his best start and the last three years he is 18-10 at home. Play the Angels.
John Ryan
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
3* graded play on the Mets as they host the Cubs set to start at 7:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Mets will win this game. Mets starter Santana is 71-12 (+47.0 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Cubs are just 11-31 (-16.8 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Santana is off a great road start at St. Louis where he allowed ZERO earned runs, 4 hits, 1 BB, and 9 K’s spanning 7 innings. This confidence and groove will certainly carry over to this game. What makes LH Santana so darn good is when he can throw his change for a strike and on any count. He throws FB just 60% of the time and only 68% when behind in the count. Batters are guessing what pitch he will throw and have to expect FB and react to change or vise versa. They cannot react to whatever pitch comes down the pipe and have success against Santana. How here is a stat for you. Of the the 4650 change ups that Santana has thrown his career batters are hitting just 146. Take the Mets.