Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Ottawa @ Pittsburgh
PICK: Ottawa +1.5
With their backs against the wall, I look for the Senators to play a tight game tonight, and while they may not win this contest, I expect it to be close, and recommend laying the juice for the 1 1/2 here.
I think the Sens still have some fight left in them; they've played especially well in Pittsburgh; “We played some good games in Pittsburgh, two really good games, I thought,” Daniel Alfredsson said. “We played OK in Game 3, not great, and in Game 4 we weren’t good at all.”
I have to point out that this has historically been a spot that Pittsburgh has struggled in; its lost four of six times since '08 in its first opportunity to end a series in a game it doesn't actually face elimination itself.
While history may not repeat itself tonight, as I said off the top, this should be the most competitive game of the series and could well see overtime.
Keep in mind though, that in this exact situation in the first round against the Flyers a year ago, the Pens played their worst game of their postseason and lost 3-0 in front of the home town crowd.
Ottawa hasn't tipped its hat yet as to who will be in net, but whether its Leclaire or Elliot, I expect a solid performance; I recommend taking a second look at the Sens on the "puck line".
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -106
After losing the first two games of this series to the Astros, I'm willing to make a small wager that the Marlins will bounce back to win Game 3. I'm all for fading Felipe Paulino here when you consider that he hasn't even been getting the job done against good hitting teams. In fact, Paulino is 0-10 against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons and 0-8 against the money line versus an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are just 1-9 in Paulino's last 10 starts, 1-11 in his last 12 starts as an underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 home starts. We'll fade Paulino tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies +133
The Phillies are showing solid value in the underdog role tonight when you consider that they are 14-6 in their last 20 meetings in Atlanta. The Phillies are also 7-3 in their last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter. They are also 4-1 in Moyer's last 5 starts as a road underdog, 6-2 in his last 8 road starts and 36-16 in his last 52 starts vs. the National League East. Take the Phillies at a nice price.
Freddy Wills
Dodgers/Reds Over 10
Reds and Dodgers have been scoring runs all series long and it continues today. A total of 51 hits 7 HR and 42 runs already only results in a high line on Thursday. With Padilla and Leake against a more challenging offense than he's faced thus far I think we will have a high scoring game again. Leake has a WHIP north of 1.6 desptie having an ERA under 3. What does that mean? It means he has not faced a good line up that can convert runners into runs. Cubs and Pirates are not the Dodgers and the Dodgers are hot right now scoring 25 runs in the last 2 games. The lead the league with a .315 average and should get to Leake in his 3rd career start. Padilla on the other hand has struggled this year and both bullpens have been subpar with ERA's 5.66 and 6.27.
Black Widow
1* on Chicago White Sox -105
The White Sox were thoroughly embarrassed last night in a 12-0 shutout loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa came into that game with a chip on their shoulder, facing Mark Buehrle for the first time since he threw a perfect game against them last season. They put it to Buehrle and kept pooring on the runs. Now the White Sox have the motivational edge in this one as they look to get after the Rays after the embarrassing nature of their loss Wednesday. James Shields has already served up 5 home runs in 18 innings this season. In a hitter-friendly ballpark here, Shields will get taken deep by a White Sox team loaded with power hitters. Shields has allowed at least 1 HR in all 6 of his career starts against the White Sox. Tampa is 5-16 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. The Rays are 1-7 in Shields' last 8 starts during game 3 of a series. The White Sox are 23-11 in their last 34 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Chicago is 19-9 in their last 28 home meetings with Tampa Bay. Take the White Sox on the Money Line.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Cavaliers -4
The Cavaliers go in for the kill in Game 3 tonight. Chicago lost the first two games of this series by double-digits and deep down inside they know they have no shot at beating Cleveland in this series. The Cavs have won 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Bulls, and their only loss came on April 8th by 1 point in a meaningless game for Cleveland as they already had home-court advantage locked up throughout the playoffs.
Cleveland is 14-4 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season, winning in these spots by a whopping 11.4 PPG. The Cavs are 33-15 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning by 12.1 PPG in these spots. This Cleveland team is desperate for a championship, and they aren't going to take any games off in the playoffs. Look for them to make easy work of the overmatched Bulls again tonight. Bet Cleveland.
Info Plays
3* on Phoenix Suns -1
Reasons why the Suns cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more. This is a 27-6 ATS System hitting 81.8% since 1996.
2.) The Suns buried the Blazers 119-90 in Game 2 at home following an upset loss in Game 1. Phoenix got back to playing Suns' basketball which is pushing the tempo and waring their opposition down. Look for the Suns to install the same game plan tonight against the depleted Blazers, who may be playing without Nocolas Batum tonight who has been starting in place of the already injured Brandon Roy. Portland just doesn't have the players to match up with Phoenix with all of the injuries that have taken place. They lack scorers and cannot keep up with the Suns on the scoreboard. Phoenix regains home-court advantage tonight with a Game 3 victory. Bet the Suns on the road.
Mike Rose
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox -148
Fenway Park is the site of Thursday night’s MLB Network broadcast where the Boston Red Sox will look to sweep the Texas Rangers at home in a series for the first time since August of 2008. Texas enters tonight’s battle hoping to snap its six-game losing streak; the Rangers haven’t dropped seven in a row since doing so way back in April of 2008.
Kevin Youkilis’ two-out RBI double in the bottom of the 12th inning of last night’s game saw the Red Sox take two in a row from the Rangers in walk-off fashion. A win this evening would mark the clubs first three-game winning streak of the season.
The Rangers are 0-2 in both of C.J. Wilson’s starts this season, but the lefty has pitched well enough to at the very least win one of those games. He boasts a 2.08 ERA and has allowed just 12 hits and three ER’s through 13 innings of work.
Both his defense and offense have plagued him early on with badly timed errors and a lack of offensive production; Texas has scored a whopping total of two runs in his first two starts.
Getting the starting call for the third time this season will be RHP Clay Buchholz. He’s 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and has allowed 10 hits and seven runs (2 ER) with a K/BB ratio of 8/6 through 10 total innings of work on the year.
Texas is 1-2 in Game 3 of a series coming off a loss, while the Red Sox are 1-1 in Game 3 off a “W”.
Boston is 12-8 SU in the L/20 overall meetings with Texas, and has taken eight of the L/10 meetings in Fenway Park.
Though Boston comes in way overinflated right now and I suffered a gut wrenching defeat backing the Rangers last night, I think the Red sox pull off the sweep. Texas simply can’t get out of its own way right now, and I look for their misery to continue tonight before getting healthy back at home over their next seven games.
Nelly
Philadelphia + over Atlanta
If not for an improbable ninth inning rally on Tuesday, Atlanta would have been shut out in three of the last four games. The Braves are hitting .225 on the season including just .207 at home against left-handed starters yet the Braves will take the lion's share of the action tonight as a favorite against the defending NL champions. Jamie Moyer is being doubted by most and his numbers look poor in the early going but consider that he struck out seven and allowed just six hits in his last start. Moyer was credited with five runs in the game but he was a few pitches away from a quality start. Derek Lowe is 3-0 on the year but it has been a phony perfect start. Lowe has allowed ten runs so he has been far from dominant and he has been bailed out by great run support with 32 runs scored for him in three games. Lowe has walked 12 batters in just over 17 innings this season, walking more batters than he has struck out. The Phillies have been the top scoring team in baseball and are hitting .281 for the year. Philadelphia has been particularly successful against right-handed pitching and the Phillies are 6-2 this season in road games. Atlanta continues to be an overvalued team and the Braves have no business being favored in any match-up given how poorly the team is hitting right now.
Insider Angles
The first two games of this series between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Oklahoma City Thunder both went Under, but we are looking for the scoring to pick up with the change in venue to Oklahoma City Thursday.
After all, it is not as if the Thunder got blown out in Los Angeles despite being down 0-2 in the series, especially in their 95-92 loss in Game 2, so we look for them to come out strong in the first playoff game ever in Oklahoma in front of a frenzied home crowd as they try and stay alive in the series.
The Thunder averaged a potent 101.7 points per game at home this season on a very good 47.6 percent shooting from the floor, and those games averaged a combined 197.7 points, nearly seven points higher than this posted total. Now we realize that playoff games are more often half-court games, but with this game meaning so much more to Oklahoma City, we look for this young club to force the issue by playing at the fast pace that they prefer.
Besides, the Lakers have tended to relax defensively on the road all year, as they are allowing 98.6 points per game away from Staples Center. Also, they have a natural arrogance that makes them seemingly take nights off when they do not have much to play for, and they are well aware that they are in control of this series and can flip the switch as they often do in Game 4 should they lose this game, so do not expect them to play with a sense of urgency.
Thus, do not expect much defensive intensity from the Lakers in Game 3, and the end result should be this game approaching 200 points.
Pick: Lakers/Thunder Over 191
Dan Bebe
WAS (+161) vs COL
This is a VALUE play. Ubaldo Jimenez is overvalued coming off his no-hitter, and the Nationals are not nearly as bad as people think.
Livan Hernandez has yet to give up an earned run in 2010, and he's facing a relatively impatient Rockies lineup (with the exception, of course, of Todd Helton, if he doesn't get the day off).
I could try to spend a few paragraphs dicing up the game and explaining why the Nationals have a great shot to win the game, but what's important is that they have a better shot to win this game than the odds would indicate.
Over the last 2-3 years, pitchers coming off no-hitters have had something of an equilibrating start the next time out, and if Ubaldo continues to walk batters, it will eventually come around to bite him.
Of course, the kid is so damn special that he could very easily give up 2 runs over 7 innings, but I happen to think the Rockies struggle to score today, as well.
Look for the Nationals bats to continue to do some damage, and look for Jimenez not necessarily to implode, but have a fairly "normal" outing, perhaps holding himself to a higher standard and missing his spots as a result.
Play on the Nats.
ATL (-139) vs PHI
Derek Lowe...Phillies killer.
This is a great value at a good time. Last night, everyone saw Roy Halladay dominate the Braves, but once again the Phillies offense struggled, and today we get to take advantage of that.
Derek Lowe has been absolutely outstanding against every member of the Phils except Chase Utley throughout his career. There are a handful of Phillies bats that are posting career numbers under the Mendoza line against Lowe. Obviously, the fact that he's given up a few homers this year already is a little disconcerting, but I think we get a strong performance from Lowe against a division rival.
On the other side is the ancient Jamie Moyer, who seems to have hit something of a wall. Those fluttering 82mph fastballs just aren't getting guys out the way they used to, and the Braves have some very smart hitters ready to attack. Matt Diaz, Troy Glaus, Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, and Brian McCann are each batting at least .364 off Moyer (or better), and have collected a combined 5 HR and 19 RBI off Moyer since 2005, more if you go back farther.
This is just a bad spot for the Phils, and I think that without Halladay on the hill to sort of "shield" the sudden offensive issues from view, the Phillies are in a bad spot today.
Play the Braves.
Richard Witt
Cubs +150 over METS
Oh, the Mutts have put together half a decent week, and we're getting all giddy? Not so fast. If Santana goes six, that's an upset, and with Zambrano headed into the pen as Cub setup man for a bit, it'll make things much simpler for Pinella to deal with, not to mention generating increased confidence in the Cub 'pen.
Stan Lisowski
LA @ CINN OVER 9.5
Dodger starter Padilla has had 8 of his last 10 starts go over. The pitching staffs of these 2 teams have been getting clobbered, with both in the bottom 5 of all of baseball in runs allowed. Combined, they have an ERA of close to 12, while in their last 10 games each, they have allowed 5 or more runs a combined 17 times.