Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Red Sox on the Run Line over the Astros.
Houston did pick up a home win over Seattle on Wednesday to salvage their three game set, but the fact remains the Astros are just 7-14 on the season, and tonight's starter Phillip Humber may be making his last start at this level for a while, as Humber is a woeful 0-4 with an over 6 ERA, and the Red Sox who just plated 6 runs in a win over the Athletics on Wednesday are not likely to ease up on Humber in this spot.
Clay Buchholz has to be the pitcher of the month! All the Boston starter has done is go out and win all 4 of his starts, allowing just 3 earned runs in his 30 innings pitched.
Unless Buchholz forgets how to throw the baseball, chances the Houston offense gets more than a run on him are very small.
Not much to think about here, Boston on the Run Line is the call all the way.
5* BOSTON -1.5
Matt Rivers
As for your Thursday free play, going to side with the Chicago Bulls minus the points to dispose of the Brooklyn Nets.
After a Game One romp of Chicago, Brooklyn was not even close to taking advantage of the injured Bulls in Game Two, as you saw just how good Tom Thibodeau is at making adjustments, and getting his team to clamp down on the defensive end.
That spells trouble for the #4 seeded Nets, as now they must try and come up with a win in the Windy City, which I do not see them doing here on Thursday.
The Bulls are now 4-2 straight up the last 6 series meetings, and have claimed 7 of the last 10 overall in this series. Chicago is also on a 4-1 against the spread run the last 5 in this series.
Have to side with the Bulls to capitalize on their stealing of the home court advantage over the Nets with another win and cover here in Game Three.
4* CHICAGO
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Miami Heat over Milwaukee as these two hook up for Game 3 in Milwaukee.
While I realize these home teams have been virtually been unbeatable so far in the playoffs, they also haven't seen the Miami Heat travel to Milwaukee either.
Here we have the #1 team in the entire NBA facing off against the #8 seed... a team that was well under .500 at the end of the season.
While Miami failed to cover their last game vs. the Bucks, they still won by double digits and literally cruised in the second half.
I don't expect them to be in cruise mode in this game, considering they are playing on the road up 2-0, but I do expect that this game will be close in the first half before the Heat decide to "turn it on".
All that being said, Miami is the best team in the playoffs and they will prove it tonight.
Take the Heat as your free play of the day.
1* MIAMI
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Chicago/ Miami Under 7.5: The Pitching matchup isn't the greatest, but here's the thing, the Cubs can't score on the road and Miami can't score at all. Before I get to the pathetic offenses i will look at the pitching. Edwin Jackson has struggled out the gate this year, but away from his smaller home park he has pitched pretty well, allowing just 3 ER's combined in his two road starts. Edwin also has a decent 3.86 ERA in 2 career starts in this park. Kevin Slowey has pitched very well to start the as he has a 1.90 ERA in 4 starts so far. Kevin hasn't allowed nore than 2 runs in any game, yet he is 0-2, because his mates have given him just 0.8 rpg worth of support. Now let's talk about that AA offense that Miami has. The Marlins are dead last in scoring, hitting and HR's with just 6 so far. At home they have hit just .175 and have scored a mere 2 rpg. Pretty sad numbers for a MLB team. On the other side the Cubs come in 27th in scoring and 26th in hitting. On the road they have been very bad, hitting just .197 and scoring 2.33 rpg. As a result of those offensive numbers, Cub road games have averaged just 5.92 rpg, while Miami home games have put up just 6.11 rpg. That gives us value (I hate that word) on the under here.
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LA Dodgers -118 over NEW YORK METS: Jeremy Hefner is not a good starter at all, but injuries have him in the rotation. This year he has gone 0-2 with a 6.27 ERA in his 3 starts, with the Mets losing all 3. In his career he is 4-8 with a 5.47 ERA in 19 starts. Just not a good starter at all he he will be facing a Dodgers team that seems to be getting it together offensively, as they come in having scored 14 runs in their last 3 games. Away from their big home park the Dodgers offense isn't all that bad. Yes they score just 3.7 rpg away from home, but they also hit .270 on the road and they should be able to get some of those clutch hits off of Hefner in this one. The Mets have been scoring some runs this year, but they are not a good hitting team. At home this year New York as scored 5.5 rpg, but they have only hit .226 and prior to last nights game they had scored 4 rpg, despite hitting .191 in their previous 5 games. Hyun-Jin Hru has not pitched all that well, but he does come in 2-0 in his last 3 starts, thanks to his mates putting up 6 rpg for him over that stretch. Overall Hru is 2-1 with a 4.01 ERA and a decent 1.30 WHIP. The Dodgers did take game 1 of this series 7-2, but lost last night on a bottom of the 10th grandslam. I expect Hru to have his best outing yet, while,the Dodgers offense knocked Hefner out of there by the end of the 4th inning. Bounce back for an improving Dodgers team tonight.
Wunderdog
Brooklyn at Chicago
Pick: Chicago -3.5
The Chicago Bulls looked out of sorts in Game One at Brooklyn. They regrouped quickly and came back, and within 2.5 hours they took the home-court advantage away from Brooklyn - something the Nets had worked all season. It is now a best of five series with Chicago now having the home-court advantage. The Bulls have certainly had the edge vs. Brooklyn this season, winning four of the six games, and both the games in Chicago. The Bulls have not played as well at home this season as they did a year ago, but that changed late in the season. Their last four home games vs. the Eastern Conference's winning teams happened to come against Miami, New York, Indiana, and this Brooklyn team. All four teams are seeded ahead of them, and they won all four of those games. The Bulls have now covered seven of their last nine vs. a winning team. Make the play on Chicago.
Montreal at Winnipeg
Pick: Under 5.5
It has been a great season in Montreal, at least up to the last six games. The Habs are just 1-5 in those six games, as the offense has managed just a total of 14 goals. Winnipeg has become an UNDER team over the second half of the season, as the Jets are 17-10-1 to the UNDER over their last 28 games. Montreal has been 4-1 to the UNDER in their last five vs. the Southeast, as well as 4-1 to the UNDER in their last five when facing an opponent that scored 5+ in their last game. The Jets have turned in a 14-6-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 21 on a day of rest, while the UNDER has ruled this series when played in Winnipeg at 11-4-1 in the last 16. This one stays UNDER the total.
Sam Martin
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzles nearly evened their series at 1-1 in Game Two, losing at the final whistle as Chris Paul's layup broke a 91-91 tie and gave the Clippers the win. LA's offense was nothing like the first game when they crushed Memphis 112-91, and now they have to go on the road where the Grizzlies only give up 87 points per game on the season. Memphis earned the ATS cover in that Game Two loss, and we'll back them tonight to get their first win in this series. Grizzlies are a strong 32-9 straight up and will be playing with a "must win" mentality. Clippers survived Game Two but won't be so fortunate on the road tonight.
Jeff Alexander
Houston Astros +245
The Red Sox are being extremely overvalued here. They are a soft 9-17 at home as a favorite of -150 or more since the beginning of last season. Boston is 7-5 at home this season but has struggled swinging the sticks inside Fenway. It is scoring only 3.7 runs and hitting just .221 at home. Houston, on the other hand, is scoring 4.9 runs and hitting .283 on the road. Humber beat the Red Sox in his most recent start against them last July and has pitched well in 3 of his 4 starts this season. Boston is coming off a big series win over an Oakland club that had had its number so I wouldn't be surprised if it suffers a letdown here.
Jack Jones
Colorado Rockies +121
You would think that the Arizona Diamondbacks had the edge on the mound given this line tonight. However, that's not the case, and I'm going to back the Colorado Rockies at an excellent price as a result.
Jorge De La Rosa is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The left-hander is 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.030 WHIP through four starts this season. De La Rosa is 7-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 13 career starts against Arizona.
Trevor Cahill is clearly being overvalued here. The right-hander is 0-3 with a respectable 3.60 ERA in four starts this season, but he's 1-4 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in six career starts against Colorado.
The Rockies are 9-1 (+8.9 Units) against the money line after one or more consecutive overs this season. Colorado is 11-2 (+9.1 Units) against the money line after a win this season. Arizona is 4-12 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in home games after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rockies Thursday.
Dave Price
Boston Red Sox -1.5 -128
Right away I like the fact that plays against road underdogs with a money line of +200 or more that are hitting .260 or worse and are up against an AL starter with an ERA of 4.20 or better, provided their starter gives up 0.5 homers or less per start, are 42-3 since 1997. This system, which carries an average winning margin of 3.4 runs, is a perfect 8-0 the last 3 seasons. Houston's Philip Humber is 0-4 with a 6.63 ERA, and each of these 4 losses came by at least 3 runs. Boston's Clay Buchholz is 4-0 with a 0.90 ERA, and 3 of his 4 wins came by at least 2 runs. Bet Boston on the run line.
Alex Smart
Philadelphia Flyers -115
The Isles after clinching a playoff spot for the first time since 2007 , are now in a letdown situation. Philly despite of being eliminated from playoff contention have played hard of late as is evident by winning 4 of their L/5. While the Islanders might be the overall superior team in this matchup, the Flyers have the motivational edge to squeak out a win.
Don Best Consensus
Colorado at Arizona
Pick: Under
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Under is 4-0 in De La Rosas last 4 road starts vs. Diamondbacks. Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Arizona. Under is 4-1 in Cahills last 5 starts vs. Rockies.
Vegas Connection
Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox
Hellickson vs Sale Big difference playing outside rather than inside. TB has struggled just 10-11. WS same boat but Chris Sale will deal for the Sox.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
LA Clippers/ Memphis Under 180: I went with the over in both games, but I have felt all along that those games would be higher scoring than the ones played at Memphis. After all we tey played the first 2 games were the average score was 197 ppg and now they are playing in Memphis, where the games have averaged 180 ppg. Big difference there. The Grizzlies really like to slow the pace and play tough defense. The Grizzlies allow just 87 ppg on their home floor, while scoring just 92.3 ppg at home. That translates into a 14-27 UNDER mark in their home games this year. The Clipps road games do average 194 ppg, but the last 4 here between these teams have put up no more than 178 points, including both meetings this year here. The Clippers do allow 96 ppg on the road, but Memphis isn't really looking to score that much. They fell behind in the series 0-2, because they played at the pace the Clippers wanted. Well the Grizzlies will really slow this one down, which gives them their best shot at notching a win in this one.
Chicago/ New Jersey Under 181.5: Game 1 flew over the total, but in game 2 the Chicago defense stepped up big time and just 172 points were scored in that one. I expect more of the same here. At home Chicago will look to dictate pace and that means a game in the 170's. Chicago played great defense in game 2, holding the Nets to just 82 points and at home they have played great defense on the year, allowing just 90.9 ppg. The Nets do average 96.2 ppg on the road, but in what should be a slow paced game and vs this fired up defense I just don't see them notching more than 85 in this one. Chicago put up 90 points in game 1 and 89 in game 1 and that's about all i would expect from them here. They average 92.9 pg at home, but shoot poorly (43.2%) on their home floor and a big reason why they wont put up more than 90 in this one. Something like 89-85 should be the final here.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Chicago/ Miami Under 7.5: The Pitching matchup isn't the greatest, but here's the thing, the Cubs can't score on the road and Miami can't score at all. Before I get to the pathetic offenses i will look at the pitching. Edwin Jackson has struggled out the gate this year, but away from his smaller home park he has pitched pretty well, allowing just 3 ER's combined in his two road starts. Edwin also has a decent 3.86 ERA in 2 career starts in this park. Kevin Slowey has pitched very well to start the as he has a 1.90 ERA in 4 starts so far. Kevin hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any game, yet he is 0-2, because his mates have given him just 0.8 rpg worth of support. Now let's talk about that AA offense that Miami has. The Marlins are dead last in scoring, hitting and HR's with just 6 so far. At home they have hit just .175 and have scored a mere 2 rpg. Pretty sad numbers for a MLB team. On the other side the Cubs come in 27th in scoring and 26th in hitting. On the road they have been very bad, hitting just .197 and scoring 2.33 rpg. As a result of those offensive numbers, Cub road games have averaged just 5.92 rpg, while Miami home games have put up just 6.11 rpg. That gives us value (I hate that word) on the under here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
LA Dodgers -118 over NEW YORK METS: Jeremy Hefner is not a good starter at all, but injuries have him in the rotation. This year he has gone 0-2 with a 6.27 ERA in his 3 starts, with the Mets losing all 3. In his career he is 4-8 with a 5.47 ERA in 19 starts. Just not a good starter at all he he will be facing a Dodgers team that seems to be getting it together offensively, as they come in having scored 14 runs in their last 3 games. Away from their big home park the Dodgers offense isn't all that bad. Yes they score just 3.7 rpg away from home, but they also hit .270 on the road and they should be able to get some of those clutch hits off of Hefner in this one. The Mets have been scoring some runs this year, but they are not a good hitting team. At home this year New York as scored 5.5 rpg, but they have only hit .226 and prior to last nights game they had scored 4 rpg, despite hitting .191 in their previous 5 games. Hyun-Jin Hru has not pitched all that well, but he does come in 2-0 in his last 3 starts, thanks to his mates putting up 6 rpg for him over that stretch. Overall Hru is 2-1 with a 4.01 ERA and a decent 1.30 WHIP. The Dodgers did take game 1 of this series 7-2, but lost last night on a bottom of the 10th grandslam. I expect Hru to have his best outing yet, while,the Dodgers offense knocked Hefner out of there by the end of the 4th inning. Bounce back for an improving Dodgers team tonight.
BOSTON -1.5 (-130) over Houston: The Astros played a solid series at home vs Seattle, but playing at home vs Seattle is not the same as playing on the road in Boston. The Houston offense has been good on the road, averaging 4.89 rpg, but they will be facing a tough pitcher in Clay Buchholz. Clay comes in rolling as he is 4-0 on the year with an ultra skinny 0.90 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. At home he has a 3-0 mark with an 0.78 ERA and an 0.96 WHIP. The Sox have outscored their opponent by 2.8 rpg in his starts this year overall and by 2.67 rpg at home. Philip Humber comes in with an 0-4 mark and a 1.58 ERA. Most of that damage came in his last outing as he game up 8 ER's in just 0.1 inings of work to the Cleveland Indians. Still he is 0-4 on the year and the Astros have been outscored by at least 3 runs in each of his starts. Philip has struggled with the Sox as well, posting a 2-2 mark, but with a high 7.33 ERA in 4 career starts vs them. The Sox are swinging hot bats and they have a huge edge on the mound and are not the type of team to take the night off offensively when their ace is on the mound. I look for Houston to be calling for the mercy rule by the 5th inning. Ok maybe not, but Boston should win by at least 43 in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago -113 over MIAMI
The Cubs have six wins in 20 games while the Marlins have five wins in 21 games so on paper, one could understand why the home-town Fish are favored, especially with Kevin Slowey’s 1.90 ERA after four starts. The problem for Miami is that paper doesn’t win games and they’ll face a Cubbies team that is likely to get some justice handed to them in this series and that justice will be victories beginning with this one. The early returns for Slowey are exciting after his first four games (1.90 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). However, command or skills hasn’t been the driver of those results. An 89% S% has helped the most. With an 88 mph fastball, an extreme fly-ball tilt, poor results against LH bats and a history (4.55 career ERA with a career BAA of .284) that supports his below average arsenal, Slowey is a poor bet to sustain his early success.
Edwin Jackson has three pure quality starts in his four games this season, yet has not earned a win. He has been brutal in his career versus the Marlins, where he is 1-6 in seven starts, with a 6.69 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. The good news is that these are not last year's Marlins against whom he had two disaster starts in three attempts. This version of the Marlins is the worst offense in baseball, as they have scored just 43 runs in their 19 games. Jackson's 3.36 xERA shows just how good he’s been this year. Jackson has whiffed 24 batters in 22 frames and comes in with an elite 63% groundball rate. Pay no attention to Jackson’s surface stats, he’s been as good as the rest of the Cubbies pitchers and he’s in line for a decent start. This is the perfect opponent to get well against.
OAKLAND -1½ +168 over Baltimore
The A’s are a fairly cheap price here at -122 but we’re going to play the run-line because Jason Hammel is on the verge of getting lit up. A newfound sinker plus added velocity worked wonders for Hammel last year, driving both is strikeout rate and groundball rate north before a knee injury derailed him in mid-season. This season, Hammel owns a 4.74 ERA and 1.22 WHIP after his first four starts and it’s likely to get worse. Hammel is not generating the strikeouts or groundballs he did in 2012. He has just 14 K’s in 25 frames to go along with a 37%/50% groundball/fly-ball profile. In fact, Hammel’s swinging strike rate has dropped from 10.0% in April 2012 to a miniscule 3.0% so far in April 2013, strongly suggesting that batters are no longer being fooled by his sinking two-seamer. Hammel's wobbly skills scream to stay away.
Jarrod Parker has gotten off to a horrible start. He had a 10.80 ERA after his first three starts but something clicked in his fourth start when he shut down the Rays by allowing one run in six full innings while striking out five and walking just two. That’s the Parker we expect to see again here. Parker went 13-8 with a 3.47 ERA in 181 IP last year. His successful rookie season was backed by worthy skills and it got better from him in the second half. He put it all together last year with an outstanding September. Parker’s average fastball velocity increased from 92.0 mph in the 1H to 92.8 mph in the 2H and he’s maintained that velocity this season. Parker has an array of different pitches that he’ll throw at any time. He is on our radar as a serious breakout candidate and now we get to buy low on him because of that rocky start. The surface stats don’t say it but the under the hood numbers suggest the A’s are going to tee off on Hammel and that Parker is going to have another quality start.