SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +113 over WASHINGTON
OT included. The Capitals clinched the Southeast Division and a #3 seed in the playoffs with a hard fought 5-3 win over the Jets on Tuesday. It was about as satisfying a win as one could imagine when you consider that The Caps got off to a horrible start with just two wins in their first 11 games. With just a 48-game a season and the NHL’s worst record at that point, it didn’t look good for Adam Oates and his club. But they stuck with it. They stuck with Oates’ system that pays heavy attention to details, just like Oates did in his playing days, and it paid off big time. After that hugely satisfying and clinching win and a big celebration that followed, this is about as big a letdown spot as one could hope for. In order to beat the Senators, a team has to be playing at a high intensity level and we certainly can’t envision that type of effort from the Caps here.
Ottawa, the Rangers and Winnipeg are fighting for two of the last three playoff spots in the East. A win here by the Senators and they’re in. Written off for dead when numerous key players were injured early in the year, the well-conditioned Sens have played their hearts out, defied the odds and have put themselves in a strong position to make the playoffs. They are not about to fail now. What we know for sure is that the Sens are going to be more focused and they’re also very likely to be the more intense team. The Sens rarely get outshot, they have a great goaltender in Craig Anderson and the rewards for everything that they’ve worked so hard for this season is about to be paid. The tag on this highly motivated guest sweetens the deal.
PHILADELPHIA -½ +151 over N.Y. Islanders
Regulation only. The Islanders post season drought is over. With a point in regulation against Winnipeg on Tuesday, the Islanders are in for the first time since 2007. A huge playoff push in the final month that saw the Islanders pick up points in 11 straight April games and in 14 of their past 15 games has finally paid off. Now the Isles will play their fourth straight road game and the Isles couldn’t care less. Many of the Islanders have never reached the post-season. Said John Tavaras, “We’re thrilled to get the chance to compete in the playoffs. Many of us have never been there before”. Coach Jack Capuano had this to say, "Our guys have battled hard and they deserve it. Most importantly, our fans deserve it. They're passionate. They've been with us. They haven't seen playoff hockey in a while. I'm proud of what the guys accomplished." Nobody is talking about this game and who could blame them? For the Islanders, this game is an afterthought and a nuisance. They want to be healthy and ready to go next week and it wouldn’t surprise to see some extra shifts for the fourth line and perhaps even the backup goaltender getting a start.
The Flyers are going to miss the playoffs for the first time in six years but they’ve won four of their past five games while scoring 21 goals over those four victories. Playing with no pressure since they were officially eliminated, the Flyers are playing with more passion and determination than they’ve shown all year. In a hugely favorable spot against a team that is still celebrating their first playoff appearance in years, expect the Flyers to maintain their season ending surge, in appreciation of their fans, in this, their final home-game of the year.
Anaheim +138 over VANCOUVER
BEST LINE: Pinnacle +138
OT included. The Canucks defeated the Blackhawks on Tuesday in what had to be considered one of their finest efforts of the season. That win allowed the Canucks to clinch the division title and the #3 seed in the West. The Canucks remain high on our fade list. We’ve suggested all year that this team is not nearly as good as their record indicates. They usually win because of the outstanding goaltending of Cory Schneider but Schneider is out for this game, meaning Roberto Luongo gets just his fourth start over the Canucks last 18 games. There will be no Schneider to bail them out of this one.
The Ducks, five points ahead of Vancouver, will open the postseason as the No. 2 seed behind Chicago. Of course, motivation, or lack thereof is a bit of a concern for Anaheim, but the same can be said for the Canucks. What we know for sure is that Vancouver usually gets outplayed. They are much worse with Luongo in net and they are the inferior team here that has lacked motivation in many of its contests already this season. Anaheim locked up a playoff spot much sooner than most but instead of going through the motions, they are intent on improving their game and being playoff ready once the post-season faces off next week. The Canucks should not be this big a favorite against Anaheim in a game that means something. In a meaningless game, this line is bordering on ridiculous.
Nelly
Colorado Rockies + over Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona is off to a nice start this season at 12-9 but the Diamondbacks are just 3-5 against left-handed starters this season. On the year this lineup is batting only .194 against southpaws with a huge dip in scoring. Arizona could be a bit flat tonight coming off travel and a big extra-innings comeback win in San Francisco yesterday, getting single runs in the eighth, ninth, and tenth innings. Colorado is tied for the second best record in baseball at 14-7 overall this season. The Rockies are 8-4 against division foes and 11-4 against right-handed starters. Jorge De La Rosa is coming off back-to-back great starts, going six innings while allowing no runs and just two hits in each of those games. His last start came against this Arizona lineup with dominant results and on the year De La Rosa has his ERA down to 2.82. He could be a strong candidate for comeback player of the year at this pace after back-to-back seasons ruined by injury. The magnificent 2010 season that Trevor Cahill had in Oakland is looking more and more line an aberration in his career path. His other three full seasons have featured very average results and he is yet to pick up a win so far this year. Cahill has not pitched terribly this year but he continues to look like a league-average hurler despite being valued like someone with a high ceiling. Colorado has crushed right-handed pitching this season hitting .281 as a team while scoring over six runs per game and after getting back in the win column yesterday also in extra-innings this is a team that can continue to play well and defy most preseason projections. The road team has won six of the last 10 in this series and this is a favorable match-up for Colorado while still holding underdog value.
MLB Predictions
Los Angeles Angels -137
The Angels lost two of three at home vs Texas to start the week after sweeping Detroit on the weekend. They are now 8-12 on the season. The Mariners dropped two straight to Houston and have gone just 2-7 over their last 9 games to fall to 8-15 on the season. Tonight the Angels will go with Garret Richards, who is in the rotation with Jared Weaver on the DL. Richards is 1-0 on the season in 6 total appearances with a 2.55 ERA. In his two starts he has pitched 13.1 innings of work giving up 4 earned runs. His latest start he went 7 innings against a tough Tigers line up giving up just 2 hits and 0 runs with 8 strikeouts and no walks. Brandon Maurer will pitch for Seattle and he is 1-3 with a 7.45 ERA over 4 starts this season. He started off with two rough starts, and then followed that up with two much improved starts where he went 1-1 allowing 4 earned runs over 12.2 innings of work. Take note that Seattle sits near the bottom of the league at 27th with a team OBA of .228 and a OBP of .292. The Angels are 2nd in team OBA at .277 with a .337 OBP. Although the Angels had a slow start to the season they’ve scored 42 runs over their last 7 games (6 runs per game). Compare that to Seattle who has scored just 17 runs over their last 7 games, and 7 of those came in one game. Note that the Angels are 8-3 in their last 11 meetings in Seattle and 41-19 in their last 60 meetings overall. This is a fairly even pitching match up looking at recent starts, but I give the edge to the Angels. Combine that with the lineup Los Angeles will put out and I think we’ve got good value here on the road team.
Cubs / Marlins Under 7.5
The 6-14 Cubs will take on the 5-16 Marlins over the weekend. Tonight’s game features Edwin Jackson on the mound for Chicago and Kevin Slowey for Miami. Jackson is 0-3 although he has pitched OK with a 4.84 ERA, .225 BA and 1.39 WHIP. Last year he was 10-11 with Washington with a 4.03 ERA and solid .243 OBA and 1.22 WHIP. His last start was his best as he went 6 innings against a hot Milwaukee team allowing just 4 hits and 1 earned run. Slowey has surprising pitched very well to start the season despite his 0-2 record. He has a 1.90 ERA, .261 OBA and 1.23 WHIP over 4 starts. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start this season. Note that the Cubs rank 26th in the MLB in team batting average, while Miami is dead last hitting just .221. These two teams are also 28th and 29th in OBP. Note that the Cubs are averaging 3.25 runs per game (27th) and the Marlins are averaging an awful 2.57 runs per game (30th). The UNDER is 4-1 in the Cubs last 5 overall, and 7-3 in their last 10 vs a right handed starter. The UNDER is also 12-4-1 in the Marlins last 17 home games dating back to last season, and 4-0 in all 4 of Slowey’s starts this year. Take the UNDER tonight in a battle between two struggling National League teams.
Ian Cameron
Montreal at Winnipeg
Play: Winnipeg
A lot of things have to go right for the Winnipeg Jets to make the playoffs and it starts with them defeating the slumping Montreal Canadiens tonight at home in their regular season finale. I expect the Jets to bring their absolute best effort to the table in front of the some of the best fans in the NHL at the always loud MTS Centre. While the playoffs are now an extreme long shot (the Jets need to win tonight and hope the NY Rangers and Ottawa lose all their remaining games), they have still been playing very well, particularly at home (5-1 run).
Meanwhile, the Canadiens have dropped three straight on the road and are just 1-5 in their last six overall. They’ve become a sieve defensively, allowing an alarming five or more goals in four of their last six games and I’m not sure the ship will get righted here tonight. It’s worth noting that Montreal has a major showdown (with revenge) against their bitter rivals the Maple Leafs on deck Saturday night in Toronto to end the regular season – it’s a game that could decide the Eastern Conference’s 4th seed and home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs if Toronto beats Florida tonight and Montreal loses to Winnipeg.
Despite a very tough setback in Washington the other night where the Jets lost 5-3 to the Capitals, Winnipeg captain Andrew Ladd expressed a common sentiment among the team that they will give it their all tonight: “I think you have to (show up Thursday). As a professional, it's your job to make sure you're coming out. Mathematically, we still have a shot, so we don't want to sell ourselves short by not showing up.” Look for the Winnipeg Jets to “show up” tonight and end their season with a home win against the struggling Canadiens.