Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday April, 26

Sam Martin

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Washington Nationals

We successfully backed the Nationals each of the last two days against the Padres, and while we don't think today's matchup is as strong as those games for the road side, we still think there is plenty of value backing Washington once again here tonight. San Diego's offense is stuck in misery, scoring just three runs in the first two games of this series combined, and send a struggling pitcher in Volquez to the hill here, who has seen his team lose all four of his starts this season. Padres offense has no momentum to build on here tonight and Washington is full of confidence with their stellar 14-4 start to the season. We know Jackson doesn't have the greatest numbers on the mound, but this San Diego offense can make anyone look like Cy Young. Back the red hot Nats tonight!

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco at Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds send Brandon Arroyo to the mound against Barry Zito and the Giants in Game Two of this three game series in Cincinnati Wednesday evening. Arroyo enters the contest in commanding KW form with 13 strikeouts and 1 walk this season knowing he is 3-1 with a 1.77 ERA in his four home team starts against San Francisco. With that look for Zito to fall to 2-4 in his last six team starts against the Reds here tonight.

Ben Burns

Dallas @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta -4.5

The Hawks are closing out the regular season on a strong run and they figure to want this one a little more than the Mavericks.

The Hawks already know that they'll be facing the Celtics in the first round. A victory here will ensure that they start that series at home. Naturally, that should provide them with plenty of motivation.

As guard Willie Green noted: "It's important to try to get home-court advantage."

Dallas has no such luxury. The defending champs will begin the playoffs on the road, regardless of what happens here. The Mavs lost by 10 last time out, resting Jason Terry and Jason Kidd. While I won't speculate on who will be in the lineup, it's entirely possible that they give another player, or players, the night off.

Regardless of who plays, note that the Mavs are only 13-19 on the road while the Hawks are 22-10 at home.

Playing their fifth straight at home, note that the Hawks are now an impressive 6-1-1 ATS (7-1 SU) after having played their previous three (or more) games at home. Consider laying the points.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Blue Jays @ Orioles
PICK: Over 9.5

Drew Hutchison will get just his 2nd career start in the big leagues for the Blue Jays, as they look to avoid being swept by the Orioles on Thursday. Hutchison, who has come straight out of Double A, pitched well at times in his major league debut, however he did give up five runs in just over five innings pitched. The Orioles have been having success against the Blue Jays pitching staff recently, and it isn't likely that a rookie out of Double A with just one pro start will put an abrupt end to that.

On the other side of the coin, the Orioles will be going with left-hander Brian Matusz, who has been horrible against Toronto in his career. The Blue Jays have feasted on Matusz, who allowed 5 earned runs and 7 hits in 5 innings in his last outing against Toronto. Matusz has faced the Blue Jays four times in his career, and in those appearances his numbers have been dreadful.

He has an ERA of 13.09, and a WHIP of 2.64, giving up six home runs. Joey Bats (Jose Bautista) and the rest of the Jays line up, likely can't wait to sink their teeth into the Orioles lefty.

The last time the Blue Jays found themselves attempting to avoid a sweep at the hands of the O's, they faced none other than Matusz, and cruised to an easy 9-2 victory. This time out they might just have their own issues to deal with, going with an unproven rookie. That being said, he can't possibly be any worse than Matusz has been for the Orioles.

I expect both teams to get their fair share of hits, scoring enough runs to see the total go OVER.

David Chan

Dallas @ Atlanta
Pick: Under194.5

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak below the posted number.

This is both a situational, and motivational play.

This is a very important game for Atlanta. With a win, the Hawks will clinch the fourth-spot in the Eastern Conference, and home-court for the first round; this is the "motivational" part of this selection.

The Mav's will be either sixth or seventh in the West, and whoever they're matched up against, this team know's it will be in for a fight:

"A sixth or seventh seed is generally gonna be viewed as an underdog-type team and that's OK," Dallas coach Rick Carlisle said yesterday. "But either way, we've got to approach it the same way. We can't look for external motivations to get fired up to defend a championship."

"We're excited, and there's gonna be 15 other teams excited about the possibility as well," Carlisle continued. "And we want to be healthy, we want to make sure we're thinking the right way, we want to make sure we have an edge and to go into this thing - and when I say 'this thing' I mean the game Thursday and games beyond - with a mental edge and a real understanding for exactly how we've got to play to be successful."

Both Jason Terry and Jason Kidd sat out in Saturday's 93-83 loss at Chicago, and it's obvious that the Mavericks have already started to prepare for their postseason push; this is the "situational" part of this play.

Note that three of the last five in this series have gone "under" the posted number.

Dallas goes through the motions; Atlanta controls the tempo.

This one sets up nicely as a lower-scoring affair!

Rob Vinciletti

Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Under 9½

This game fits another solid totals system that has won 11 of 13 times and plays on the Under for road teams like Toronto that are off a road loss and scored 2 or less runs and had 2 errors, vs an opponent off a home win that scored 4 or less runs also with 2 errors. Toronto is hitting under .220 on the road and the Orioles have played under in 5 of 6 at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 and are hitting just over .200 the past week. Both teams have struggling starters which is what keeps this play from getting unit rated. However both bullpens are solid. Toronto has a 1.21 road bullpen era and Baltimore has a 2.64 bullpen era. So we will back the under in this one.

Jim Feist

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

You have to be impressed with the play of the Toronto Blue Jays, overachieving, especially on the road: The Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 road games. That's because the offense is 6th in baseball in runs scored. Baltimore has never faced starter Drew Hutchison before, and the Orioles are forced to go with struggling Brian Matusz (0-3, 7.98 ERA), who has walked 11 in 14 innings with 22 hits. He's 0-3 lifetime against Toronto with a 13.09 ERA. Play the Blue Jays.

Dave Cokin

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres
Pick: Washington Nationals

The Padres continue to be hitless wonders at Petco, and I'd rather have Edwin Jackson than Edinson Volquez. I'll look for the Nationals to finish off the series sweep.

SPORTS WAGERS

Boston +115 over CHICAGO

April of 2012 is a month that Philip Humber will remember for the rest of his life. Not only did he throw the 21st perfect game in history but his wife is about to give birth anytime now. The wagering angle of betting against a pitcher off a no-hitter doesn’t come along too frequently but its winning percentage over the years is through the roof, as the next outing is anti-climactic and very difficult to get up or focused for. Additionally, Humber’s ERA after two starts of 0.69 is unsustainable. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are heating up. Over its last five games, Boston is batting .354. The Bosox just swept Minnesota and scored six runs or more in all three games for a total of 24 runs in the three-game set. Felix Doubront appeared poised for his first win of the season in his last start against the Yankees. He departed the game after the sixth inning with the Red Sox holding a 9-1 advantage but the pen couldn’t hold it and he received a no-decision. Against the Yanks, Doubront allowed four hits and one run in six frames. In three starts he’s struck out 20 batters in 16 innings. His limited track record provides caution but he certainly deserves better than being winless and this one sets up nicely for him and his mates. Play: Boston +115 (Risking 2 units).

Kansas City +139 over CLEVELAND Pinnacle

The Royals finally ended their ugly 12-game losing streak with a win last night and one win does wonders to team morale. K.C.’s .222 winning percentage will improve and it’s games like these that will allow that to happen. Josh Tomlin has had one good start and that came in Seattle. He faced the Royals on April 14 and didn’t make it out of the fourth inning after allowing six hits and five runs. Against the White Sox in his season debut, Tomlin was tagged for two bombs in five frames. Tomlin pitches to contact and is a soft-tosser with a fastball that averages 88 mph. He has a bias fly-ball profile and he depends on his defense and good fortune to succeed. When balls aren’t hit right at people, his ERA will balloon and we’ve seen evidence of that already. Win or lose, Josh Tomlin is a risky favorite that should be avoided in spots like this. Luis Mendoza received two starts in September 2011 after the Royals started shutting some of the regular starters down and he pitched well in those 15 innings. Prior to his September call-up, Mendoza had strong surface stats in Triple-A Omaha (12-5, 2.18 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) but control issues (9 walks, 3 K’s in 13 IP) have caused a less than pretty ERA and WHIP to begin this season. However, a 62% ground ball rate combined with some of the skills he’s displayed makes him worthy of a wager against a pitcher that should never be in this price range. Play: Kansas City +139 (Risking 2 units).

Pass NBA/NHL

JR O'Donnell

Washington Nationals -115

The Nats send out Edwin Jackson who is 1-1 & 4.26 ERA vs. the Padres Edinson Volquez who is 0-2 & 4.30 ERA. The big difference here is that the Padres just can't & wont score... These Nats have maybe one of the best pitching staffs in the Bigs this season! The #'s are strong @ Nats plating 4.0 r/g on the road and only allow 2.3 r/g while the Padres score 2.8 r/g at home and allow 3.3 r/g. We see that in huge & pitcher friendly Petco Park gives the edge to these Rolling Nats ...........the Nationals steal one tonight.

Matt Fargo

Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

There have 14 perfect games since Don Larsen threw his in the 1956 World Series and in those follow-up starts, teams went just 6-8 while the perfect pitchers from their previous outings posted a 4.72 ERA with only six quality starts being thrown. It shows following up perfection is tough to do and that will be the case again Thursday for Philip Humber. After winning their first four games of their recent roadtrip, the White Sox dropped their last two and return home from the west coast in a tough travel spot. The Red Sox are starting to turn things around as they are coming off a three-game sweep in Minnesota and they look to keep that momentum going into Chicago. They are now just 7-10 on the season but a similar start last season led to a big surge to put them in playoff contention before a September drought did them in. The offense has really picked things up as after scoring a total of eight runs in four games at the start of their most recent losing streak, they have averaged 8.3 rpg over their last four games. They hope that offense continues to help Felix Doubront who will be making his fourth start of the season. He has pitched pretty well actually as he has a 3.94 ERA through three games and is coming off his first ever quality outing in six career starts. Most of his work in his time in the Majors has come out of the bullpen and that has been pretty shaky but he shown some good poise as a starter in limited action. The White sox are hitting only .188 against lefties this season. Humber put his name into the history books with that start last Saturday and it pretty much came out of nowhere. He was coming off a quality start in his first game of the season but he has not been overly dominating in his short career. He is still coming off the high of that perfect game and everything that comes along with it and on top of that, he and his wife are expecting their first child any day now, adding to the distractions. He has a 5.84 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in two career starts against Boston.

Sean Murphy

Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers

I won't get too long-winded with my analysis of this play.

It's not often that I'll go to the well with a favorite priced north of -200, but I'm willing to make an exception here.

The Tigers have dropped the first two games of this series, but that's not all that surprising to be honest. In Game 1, they sent a struggling Max Scherzer to the hill against Jason Vargas, who has been a pleasant surprise for the M's so far. Last night, Detroit went up against the Mariners ace in Felix Hernandez, while sending rookie Adam Wilk to the mound. Seattle actually opened as the favorite in that contest before the betting majority took over in support of the Tigers.

So now we find the Tigers looking to avoid the sweep on Thursday afternoon. While it doesn't appear to be an ideal spot given the fact that today's starter, Rick Porcello, is coming off a disastrous outing against the Rangers, in which he allowed eight earned runs in just an inning of work.

Let's not get too down on Porcello. Prior to that start, he had allowed a grand total of only 12 hits and three earned runs in his first two outings, spanning 14 2/3 innings pitched. He's handled the Mariners in the past, with the Tigers going 4-1 in his five previous starts against them.

Seattle will counter with Hector Noesi. Like Porcello, he was also ripped in his most recent start, giving up six earned runs in 1 1/3 innings against the White Sox. Noesi also allowed seven earned runs in only three innings against Texas in his season debut. His lone solid start came against the light-hitting A's.

Seattle has looked good in this series, but let's not forget it is still a losing club on the season, and was just swept at home by the White Sox this past weekend. Look for the Tigers to show some pride today, and pick up a much-needed win before heading to New York for a tough weekend set against the Yankees.

Hollywood Sports

Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Chicago (10-8) will be anxious to see Philip Humber take the mound after being the 21st player in Major League history pitch a perfect game last Saturday against the Mariners. That sensational outing has resulted in the White Sox being a bit overvalued in this spot. Starting pitchers coming off outstanding efforts typically regress back to their longer-term norm. Last season, Humber was a solid -- but certainly not spectacular -- 9-9 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and .243 opponent's batting average. Expect an outing that is closer in line with those metrics rather than his 0.63 ERA and 0.63 WHIP so far this season. It is telling that Chicago has lost 7 of their last 8 home games with Humber on the hill. The White Sox have also lost 5 straight games with Humber starting against a team from the tough AL East. These are dangerous numbers when facing a Red Sox team that has won 4 of their last 5 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. Boston (7-10) is beginning to get their act together as they have won three in a row after their 7-6 win at Minnesota yesterday. The Red Sox have won 4 of their last 5 games following a victory. Boston has also won 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. They send out Felix Doubrant who is 0-0 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP this season. But the White Sox have lost two games in a row -- and they have dropped 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record.

Jack Jones

Atlanta Hawks -5

The Atlanta Hawks are looking to nail down home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The Dallas Mavericks have little to play for tonight knowing that they'll be opening their title defense on the road. The Hawks will ensure that they open the postseason at home by defeat the visiting Mavericks in Thursday night's regular-season finale.

Atlanta (39-26) will be the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference and begin the playoffs against Boston, guaranteed the No. 4 seed as the Atlantic Division champion. The Hawks, though, are one game ahead of the Celtics and can secure home court for the series with a victory Thursday or a loss by Boston to Milwaukee.

Dallas will be either the sixth or seventh seed in the West, which really isn't an advantage either way. The Mavericks clearly aren't concerned about winning this game as they are expected to rest both Jason Kidd and Jason Terry. There's no question the Hawks are motivated to win to get that home-court advantage over Boston. Bet Atlanta Thursday.