MLB Predictions
Blue Jays / Orioles Over 9.5
Baltimore looks for a three game sweep of the Blue Jays tonight, as they've taken the first two games by scores of 2-1 and 3-0. After scoring 22 runs in four games in Kansas City the Blue Jays bats have slowed down, but that can be credited to Tommy Hunter and Jason Hammel who did a good job on the mound in their respective starts. Tonight Baltimore will send Brian Matusz to the mound, who has already faced Toronto this season. Matusz went 5.2 innings in his start against the Blue Jays allowing 7 hits and 5 earned runs while striking out 4 and walking 4. On the season Matusz is 0-3 with a 7.98 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, and .349 opponents batting average. Last season Matusz was 1-9 with a 10.69 ERA over 10 starts with the Orioles. Tonight's starter for the Blue Jays is Drew Hutchison who will make his second Major League start. Hutchison got the win in Kansas City in his first MLB start although he allowed 8 hits and 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings of work while striking out 4 and walking 3 batters. Take note that the OVER is 18-6-2 in the Blue Jays last 26 games with a high total set between 9 and 10.5. The OVER is also 6-2 in their last 8 divisional games, and 6-2-1 in their last 9 vs a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30. The OVER is 8-3 in Matusz' last 11 starts overall, and 4-1 in his last 5 home starts. The OVER is also 8-3-1 in these two teams last 12 meetings despite their first two meetings of this series going under the posted total. Runs should come fairly easy in this one - take the OVER. The line has moved since posting this play late last night and you can get it at OVER 9 (-110) right now.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Thursday is also a matinee winner, as I like the Detroit Tigers to blast the Seattle Mariners this afternoon.
What we have here in this Motown clash is a complete pitching mismatch, with Seattle handing the ball to Hector Noesi and the Tigers giving Rick Porcello the nod. Sorry, but the Tigers' potent lineup is going to take advantage of Seattle's young righty, who is 1-2 with a 9.49 ERA early on this season. He's sandwiched one good outing by two incredibly ugly games, and comes in after lasting just 1-1/3 innings last Friday against the White Sox, who tapped him for six hits and six runs.
So expect the run support to be there for Porcello, who is 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA this season, but is much better than his ERA indicates. The right-hander comes in after recording just three outs in his last start, against the Rangers, as the league's best team tagged the 23-year-old sinkerballer for eight earned runs on 10 hits.
If there was ever a game he could bounce back, it's this one, as he's 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA against the Mariners.
Lay the run line in this one as Detroit light things up and Porcello silences the M's.
3♦ DETROIT -1.5
Derek Mancini
Following yesterday's Free Play winner on the Reds, I'm not seeing anything I like on the Diamond tonight so we're switching gears to the Hardwood. I know bettors are hesitant to bet the NBA in the final week and especially the final day, but besides my 30 Dime Paid Play winner tonight, I've found a second game I like - Miami at Washington.
Of course, the first thing you notice is the Wizards are favored here by around 6 points (depending on where you shop) and that immediately tells you what the oddsmakers are expecting. They're looking for another pathetic effort from the Heat's pathetic bench players, and I couldn't agree more.
You guys saw how ugly the game was against the Celtics, a 78-66 loss by the Heat. Granted, of the Celtics starters only Rondo and Garnett sat out, while Pierce played 17+ minutes, but that's still no excuse. It was an ugly example of what happens when your roster is top heavy like the Heat. Sure Chalmers, Battier, Haslem and Miller are nice players, but they're still just role players. They have difficulty creating their own shots, which is why Dexter Pittman led the Heat in scoring. Same issue will arise tonight against a Washington team that will play its starters for a good amount of minutes (Wall played 30+ last night in Cleveland).
Speaking of Wall, he's led a little mini-resurgence by the Wizards, who've decided to finally start playing team basketball in the final weeks of the season. Granted, its a young team that needed time to develop and truth is they have looked pretty good, going 5-0 SUATS in their L5 games. They're scoring 98 ppg on neearly 47% shooting, but more importantly, they're playing defense, surrendering just 87 ppg on 40% shooting over their 5-game surge.
Bottom line, Miami is catching Washington at the worst possible time: short-handed and when the Wizards are surging. This unlikely combination of factors leads the Wizards to notch the win and cover in the season finale tonight. Lay it with Washington over Miami Thursday.
1♦ WASHINGTON
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Washington Nats to keep their torrid April start moving forward at the expense of the San Diego Padres.
Washington has now won each of the last five games played against San Diego at Petco Park, and the Nationals do stand at a National League best 14-4 for the year.
San Diego is just 5-14 for the year, and the Padres have dropped five of their last seven games.
Edwin Jackson has been so-so for his new team, but I expect him to lower his over four ERA against a San Diego attack that just doesn't score many runs.
The Padres counter with Edinson Volquez who has seen better days. Volquez is winless at 0-2, and the Padres are winless at 0-4 in his four starts this season.
Not likely the Nats are going to be cooled off before heading north up I-5 for their weekend set with the Dodgers.
Nationals to complete the three-game sweep.
4♦ WASHINGTON
Steve Janus
New York Knicks -3.5
Even though the Knicks will likely sit Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, and Tyson Chandler, I still like their chances of them beating up on the Bobcats.
Charlotte has to win this game to avoid finishing the season with the worst winning percentage in NBA history. The Bobcats have known about this record for some time now, yet they continue to lose. Last night's loss at Orlando was their 22nd loss in a row. To think this team is simply going to turn it on for the final game is hard for me to believe. They have had enough trouble keeping games close. Now they face an extreme amount of pressure to not let their fans down and pull out the win.
The group of players that will be taking the floor for the Knicks aren't going to simply lay down and let the Bobcats win this game. It's embarrassing to lose to a team like Charlotte. Something the Knicks have already done once this season. Those players that will be playing tonight, are fighting for key minutes in the playoffs, and I expect them to put forth enough effort to win this game by a measly 4-points.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Boston +110 over CHICAGO (AL): One thing i like to look at and use to my advantage is how well a team does on the road after a tough home stand. The BoSox were getting booed out of their stadium during the yanks series and that puts a lot of pressure on a team and a lot of times you will see a team get away from that home pressure and start to play well. The Sox are doing just that as they are off a 3 game road sweep of the Twins. I know it was the Twins, but they were playing well before Boston came to town. The BoSox offense is clicking again (despite the injuries) as they have averaged 8.3 rpg in their last 4 games, while they hit .271 and have averaged 5.2 rpg on the road this year. Today they will be taking on Phil Humber, who is off a perfect game and has an 0.63 ERA on the year, but who also may not be as focused after that last start, plus he is 1-1 with a 5.84 ERA in 2 starts vs the BoSox. Felix Doubront took a hard ND in his last start as he allowed just 1 ER in 6 innings vs the Yanks and left the game with a 9-1 lead, but the pen then allowed the Yanks to score the next 14 runs in the game. He should have another solid outing today vs a Chicago offense that isn't nearly as potent as the Yanks were, plus you have to feel that his team mates feel awful about his last start and will work very hard to make sure that doesn't happen again. Boston is playing more freely away from home and while their pen still has some struggles they are not playing vs a great offense tonight. Look for Boston to win their 4th in a row behind another good outing from Felix and more strong play from their offense.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
CLEVELAND -144 over Kansas City: Ok the Royals broke their losing streak and that is a lot of pressure off this team, so they may relax a bit here. The Tribe, on the other hand, was the team that allowed them to stop their losing ways, so you can bet they will be looking for some payback here. Luis Mendoza has struggled for KC, with an 0-2 mark and a 6.92 ERA, plus he has 1 start in his career vs Cleveland (this year) and he allowed 9 runs (5 ER) in just 4 innings in that game. Josh Tomlin is 1-1 with a 4.86 ERA on the year, while in his last 4 starts vs the Royals he is 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA, including a 2-0 mark with a 3.00 ERA in his last 2 starts vs them here. The Tribe is still struggling with their offense at home, but they shold break out in a big way today and get some revenge for last night's loss. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since April 2009, the Royals are 4-27 on the road vs an AL opponent that is seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they never led.
DETROIT -1.5 (-110) over Seattle: So how much is one player worth to a team. Detroit was given the world series title by many (including me), thanks to the signing of Fielder, but they are just not playing all that well right now, especially after they lost the first two at home in this series. Today they should be able to bounce back with an easy win here. The Detroit offense has really struggled of late, but they should open it up today vs Hector Noesi, who is 1-2 on the year with a 9.49 ERA, while in 5 total career starts he is 1-3 with a 9.53 ERA. Rick Porcello has struggled out the gate this year, with a 1-1 mark and a 6.32 ERA, but he is 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA vs the M's, plus when he picks up a win (as expected today) he has a solid 2.35 ERA. Detroit really needs to start flexing their muscles and they should be able to start to day vs a very weak pitcher. Look for Detroit to get revenge for their last 2 losses as they win this one by 4 +runs.
Miami/ NY Mets Over 7.5: We got some wind blowing out to right here and that should help. Johnathon Niese has a solid 2.89 ERA to start, but a 4.50 ERA in his 2 home starts, with 9.5 rpg scored in those 2 starts. Niese also has a 5.93 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Fish. Ricky Nolasco has a 3.93 ERA overall this year, with his games averaging 9.3 rpg. Ricky has a 5.27 ERA in 21 appearances (19 starts) vs the Mets and a 5.10 ERA in 5 career starts here, plus 9 of he last 10 starts vs the Mets have produced at least 9 runs in each game. Wind blowing out, two starters that have struggled vs their opposition and two offenses that have the ability to put some runs on the board. This one should reach at least 9 runs with ease.
2 UNIT PLAYS
San Francisco/ Cincinnati Over 8: Both pitchers have been decent this year so far, but neither has fared well vs today's opposition. Ryan Vogelsong has an 8.43 ERa in his last 4 starts vs the Reds overall and a 4.50 ERA in 1 start here. Homer bailey has 4 starts in his career vs the Giants and hae has a 6.35 ERA vs them with each of the last 3 starts putting at least 13 runs on the board. Great American park is really a hitters park and even more so in the day time, plus we have the added bonus of a solid wind (14 mph or so) blowing out to right. Look for about 10 runs in this one.
Washington -114 Over SAN DIEGO: Pains me to keep picking the Nats. I'm a Phils fan and really don't wanna see this team keep winning, but oh well. The Nats are the better team here, while the Padres are playing like i expected them to at the beginning of the year. Washington has Edwin Jackson going today and he has been decent thus far, with a 1-1 mark and a 4.26 ERA. He has struggled with the Pads, going 90-3 with a 5.20 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, while here he is 0-1 with a 2.59 ERA. Edinson Volquez has not really helped the Pads as they thought he would as he has an 0-2 mark with a 4.30 ERA on the year, while he is 0-4 with a 4.75 ERA in his last 7 starts overall dating back to last year. Edinson is 1-1 in 2 career starts vs the Nats, but with a high 9.72 ERA. Washington is hot and the Pads are not. look for it to continue here.
TOP 3 POWER ANGLES FOR THURSDAY (1-3 -3.29 UNITS)
NOTE: There is always questions with this thread and these Power Angles so Ill have this little note each day, as to hopefully quell the questions before they get asked. Each day I will try and have 3-5 of these PA Plays as i feel they can be both entertaining and informative, but remember they are not the be all end all for making a play on a game. I have to in some way like the pick for other reasons, or it wouldn't be here. No, a full research hasn't been done on the side or total, but if it is then you will see that pick in my main pick thread and if I really like the play then it will be a PA play over there. Also I will not put a PA that i like here and then pick a game with the other side or other total in the other thread. The games I do bet on are in my main picks thread, so if you see a play here that is not there then it was not bet on. I will NEVER bet on a play just because of an angle. Plenty of times i have seen a 90%+ angle that looks nice but haven't put it here because I just wasn't comfortable with the play. Also you may see some higher juiced plays here, but I wouldn't play games that high in my other thread, so if you use them here they are probably better served in a parlay. The record for these plays will be kept here and not be apart of my records at the bottom. Those records are just for my main picks thread and the Power Angle records down there are just for my PA plays in the other thread as well. These plays are all for 1 Unit. Enjoy all.
Since April 2009, the Royals are 4-27 on the road vs an AL opponent that is seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they never led. Play On Cleveland -144 over Kansas City
Since 2009, the Seattle Mariners are 1-20 SU and 5-16 vs the RL as a road dog of more than +110 when facing a team that has lost at least 2 straight. Play On Detroit -1.5 (-110) Over Seattlle.
Since 2005, The Orioles are 1-13 in the last game of a home series, when they are off a shutout win that did not go into Extra innings. Play on Toronto -113 over Baltimore
WUNDERDOG
San Francisco at Cincinnati
Pick: San Francisco +110
The Cincinnati Reds have gotten the better of the San Francisco Giants in the first two games of this series, taking them both. Ryan Vogelsong has yet to record a win for the Giants, but he has pitched well with a 3.38 ERA entering today's contest. The Reds have allowed 15 runs in Bailey's three starts, so there should be plenty of opportunities for the Giants. San Francisco is 9-3 in Vogelsong's last 12 starts after they scored two runs or less in their previous game. It's tough to get the sweep, especially against a competent opponent with a better than average starting pitcher. Play on San Francisco.
Vegas Experts
Mavericks at Hawks
Play: Hawks
Atlanta is one of the few teams with something to play for tonight in NBA as a win gives them home court advantage in a first round playoff series with Boston. Dallas has been off for four days, but in a situation like this, that actually works against them as we can't possibly imagine they spent the majority of that time preparing for this meaningless regular season finale. The Hawks have won four of five with the only loss coming by one point in a come from ahead loss to the Knicks. They've shot better than 50% in three consecutive games. Lay the points.