SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Dallas (2-3, 2-2-1 ATS) at San Antonio (3-2, 2-2-1 ATS)
The second-seeded Mavericks look to fend off elimination for a second time in 48 hours when they travel to the AT&T Center for Game 6 of their best-of-7 first-round series against the Spurs.
Needing a Game 5 win to avoid elimination, Dallas routed the Spurs 103-81 Tuesday night as a five-point home favorite, ending a three-game skid (0-2-1 ATS) following its series-opening victory. Caron Butler torched San Antonio for 35 points and 11 rebounds, and Dirk Nowitzki (15 points, nine rebounds) just missed a double-double.
Tony Parker led San Antonio, but he had just 18 points, and only two teammates cracked double figures – George Hill with 12 points and Tim Duncan with 11. The Spurs shot a meager 35.9 percent (28 of 78), including a 3-for-16 effort from 3-point range (18.8 percent). They were outrebounded 52-41 and had 18 turnovers to Dallas’ 12.
San Antonio scored wins in Games 3 and 4 at the AT&T Center to improve to 31-12 SU (25-16-2 ATS) at home this season, outscoring visitors by more than eight ppg (104.9-96.8) and outshooting them 49.1 percent to 45.9 percent. Dallas stands 27-16 SU and 26-17 ATS on the highway, with the Mavs averaging 101.6 ppg on 46.7 percent shooting and yielding 98.7 ppg (45.3 percent).
These two teams also met in the first round last year, with Dallas winning in five games (4-1 ATS). The SU winner is on a 17-1-1 ATS tear in the last 19 clashes between these Southwest Division rivals (4-0-1 ATS in this series). In addition, the Mavs are 8-3-1 ATS in the last dozen meetings, the host is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 contests (4-1-1 last six) and the chalk is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six. Finally, Dallas is still 12-5-1 ATS on its last 18 visits to the AT&T Center.
The Mavericks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last nine overall, and they are on further pointspread upticks of 5-1-1 on the highway, 7-2-1 after a day off (4-1-1 last six) and 5-1 after either a SU or an ATS win. However, they are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last five as a playoff ‘dog and 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 Thursday starts.
Despite the Game 5 blowout loss, the Spurs still sport positive ATS streaks of 20-9-1 overall, 5-1-1 at home (all as a favorite), 8-3-1 after a day off, 14-6-1 in the West, 8-2-1 as a home favorite and 7-2 after either a SU or an ATS defeat. On the downside, San Antonio is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight first-round playoff games – all against Dallas.
Dallas is on a plethora of “under” sprees, including 12-4-1 overall (5-0-1 last six, all against the Spurs), 6-0-1 inside the Southwest Division, 5-0 as an underdog, 5-1 following a day off and 9-1-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. That said, the Mavs are on a 12-5 “over” stretch as a playoff pup. San Antonio is on “under” surges of 6-1-1 overall, 7-1-1 against winning teams, 5-0 on Thursday and 15-7 with the Spurs a playoff chalk of less than five points, though the over has hit in five of San Anton’s last seven at home.
Finally, the under is 7-1-1 in this year’s nine clashes in this rivalry, with the last four games of this playoff series staying below the total after a push in Game 1.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Phoenix (3-2 SU and ATS) at Portland (2-3 SU and ATS)
The Suns try to wrap up their best-of-7 Western Conference first-round series against the Trail Blazers when they visit the Rose Garden in Portland for Game 6.
Phoenix assumed a 3-2 lead with Monday’s 107-88 home win, easily cashing as a 7½-point favorite. The Suns had five players score in double figures, with Channing Frye leading the way with 20 points and eight rebounds, while Amare Stoudemire and reserve Jared Dudley both chipped in with 19 points. Portland led 28-27 at the end of the first quarter, but got outscored 57-38 during the middle two stanzas.
Blazers point guard Brandon Roy, who made a surprise return in Game 3 less than two weeks after having knee surgery, has come off the bench in the last two contests. However, Roy is expected to get the start tonight ahead of backup Andre Miller. Also, Portland forward Marcus Camby (dislocated pinky) is likely to play.
These teams return to the Rose Garden where they split third and fourth games of this series, with the Suns dominating Game 3 108-89 and the Blazers rallying in Game 4 for a 96-87 victory Saturday as two-point favorites.
Phoenix is 23-20 (24-19 ATS) away from home this season and has won eight of its last 11 on the road (6-5 ATS). The Blazers are 27-16 in their building (20-22-1 ATS), including taking eight of their last 11 (6-5 ATS).
The Suns are back in the postseason after missing out last year. This is the Suns’ 19th postseason appearances in the last 22 years. Portland ended a six-year playoff drought last year, but went one-and-done, falling 4-2 to the Rockets (3-3 ATS) in the opening round.
The season series is tied 4-4 (with the Blazers holding a slim 4-3-1 ATS edge), but the home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings with the chalk cashing in 17 of the last 26 meetings. In Oregon, the Blazers are 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
Phoenix is just 7-21 ATS in its last 28 Thursday contests, but it is on several positive ATS streaks, including 28-11-1 overall, 13-6 on the road, 11-4 after two days off, 8-3 as a road ‘dog and 11-4 on the road against teams with winning home records. Portland is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite, but 22-7 ATS in its last 29 as a chalk of less than five points and 5-1 ATS in its last six after a straight-up loss.
The Suns have topped the total in nine of 11 Thursday games, but they’re also on “under” surges of 5-0-1 on the road, 4-0-1 as an underdog, 8-3 against Northwest Division teams, 8-3-1 after a spread-cover and 5-2 against teams with winning records. The Blazers have stayed below the posted total in 13 of 18 at home, six of seven after a straight-up loss, nine of 10 at home against teams with a winning road record and seven of 10 against Pacific Division squads.
The under is 5-2 in the last seven series clashes overall, and each of the last three in this series have stayed low, including both games played in Oregon.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (9-12) at San Diego (13-8)
The Padres return home from a successful road trip when they open a four-game weekend series against the Brewers at Petco Park, with Wade LeBlanc (1-0, 0.82 ERA) set to take the mound for the hosts opposite veteran Doug Davis (0-2, 8.35) in a battle of left-handers.
Milwaukee capped a six-game homestand with Wednesday afternoon’s 6-5, 14-inning loss to the Pirates, as closer Trevor Hoffman blew a ninth-inning lead against Pittsburgh for the second straight day. The Brewers have followed up a four-game winning streak – all on the road in which they outscored the opposition 47-8 – by losing five of their last six. In addition to winning four straight on the highway, the Brewers are on positive runs of 4-0 against winning teams and 7-3 on Thursday, but they’re 3-8 in their last 11 series openers.
San Diego rallied from a 4-0 deficit in Florida on Wednesday and prevailed 6-4 to finish off a 4-2 road trip. Since starting the season 3-6, the Padres have ripped off 10 wins in their last 12 games, including six straight victories at Petco. Additionally, San Diego has won five of six against the N.L. Central and four of its last five series openers, but it is also 1-4 in its last five on Thursday.
The Padres have taken five of seven from Milwaukee going back to September 2008, and they’re 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in San Diego.
Davis started the season with three horrible starts, giving up 15 runs on 24 hits in 12 innings, though the Brewers found a way to win two of those three contests. Then on Saturday, he delivered his best performance of the season against the Cubs at home (two runs, six hits in 6 1/3 innings), but he got no run support and lost 5-1.
Despite Davis’ struggles this season, with the lefty on the hill Milwaukee is still on positive runs of 7-2 against the N.L. West, 7-0 on the road against winning teams and 5-1 on Thursday. Also, the Brewers are 4-0 in Davis’ last four starts against the Padres. For his career, the 34-year-old California native is 8-6 with a 4.82 ERA in 22 starts against San Diego (4-1, 3.18 ERA in seven starts at Petco).
Furthermore, Davis’ last 11 starts against the Padres – all with the Diamonbacks from 2006-2009 – have been quality outings, as he pitched at least six innings and yielded three earned runs or fewer in each contest. Also, San Diego is 3-11 the last 14 times they’ve faced Davis.
LeBlanc has delivered a pair of gems in his first two starts of 2010, giving up one run in five innings in leading the Padres to a 5-3 home win over Arizona, followed by Saturday’s 5-0 win in Cincinnati in which he scattered three hits and two walks in six scoreless innings. Going back to September, LeBlanc has given up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, posting a 1.58 ERA during this stretch, and the Padres are 7-2 in his last nine trips to the mound.
LeBlanc, who has pitched in 16 games (15 starts) since San Diego brought him to the big leagues in late 2008, is 1-1 with a 2.43 ERA in six games (five starts) at Petco Park, allowing eight runs in 29 2/3 innings. He has never faced the Brewers.
Milwaukee is on a slew of “over” runs, including 21-6-4 overall, 13-3-2 on the road, 20-6-3 in series openers, 5-0-1 versus the N.L. West, 12-2 on Thursday, 4-1-1 behind Davis overall and 2-0-2 when Davis faces the N.L. West. Conversely, other than a 16-5 “over” run on Thursday, San Diego is on “under” streaks of 6-3-2 overall, 18-7-2 at home and 5-2-1 versus the N.L. Central.
Finally, the under is 5-1 in the last six Padres-Brewers meetings in San Diego.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
DUNKEL INDEX
Dallas at San Antonio
The Spurs look to close out the series and build on their 8-2-1 ATS record in their 11 games as a home favorite. San Antonio is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3)
Game 547-548: Dallas at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.455; San Antonio 128.670
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 189
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 191
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Under
Game 549-550: Phoenix at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 127.911; Portland 120.810
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 1; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+1); Over
MLB
Oakland at Toronto
The A's look to build on their 5-0 record in Justin Duchscherer's last 5 starts. Oakland is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120)
Game 901-902: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.696; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.608
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+170); Over
Game 903-904: Arizona at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 15.239; Cubs (Lilly) 16.433
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-165); N/A
Game 905-906: Cincinnati at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.363; Houston (Oswalt) 15.212
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-170); Over
Game 907-908: Milwaukee at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Davis) 14.549; San Diego (LeBlanc) 15.288
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-140); Over
Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burres) 13.621; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.671
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-240); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-240); Over
Game 911-912: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pavano) 16.533; Detroit (Willis) 14.947
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Over
Game 913-914: Chicago White Sox at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.742; Texas (Feldman) 14.242
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Over
Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 14.929; Baltimore (Matusz) 15.025
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-190); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+165); Over
Game 917-918: Oakland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Duchscherer) 15.234; Toronto (Romero) 14.365
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120); Under
Game 919-920: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 16.106; Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.656
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-250); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-250); Under
NHL
Detroit at San Jose
The Red Wings look to build on their 6-2 record in their last 8 meetings in San Jose. Detroit is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+120)
Game 53-54: Detroit at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.897; San Jose 12.235
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+120); Under
MTi Sports
Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
The Blue Jays are 0-5 when Ricky Romero starts when they won the last time he started vs this opponent and 0-7 when Romero starts when they lost their last two games. The Athletics are 5-0 in the first game of a series when they are off a loss in which they held the lead.
Terron Chapman
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: Dallas Mavericks +3.5
The San Antonio Spurs blew a prime opportunity to put away their Texas brethren in Dallas Monday evening. The Mavericks were able to stave off elimination and extend the series with a convincing 103-81 victory over the Spurs, forcing a critical game six Thursday in San Antonio.
This is a critical game not only for the Mavs, who will once again face elimination, but for the Spurs as well, who if they don’t win game six, will not win a game seven in Dallas. Of concern for Spurs backers is Tim Duncan, who was limited to just 15 points total in the last two games. The Spurs won with just a four-point effort from him in Game 4 but they need more from him if they intend to win the series. The Spurs can’t depend on another 29-point performance from George Hill like we saw in game four.
Caron Butler awoke from his series slumber with a breakout 35-point performance in game five. The confidence gained from that outing should carry over into game six and give Nowitzki the help he has been looking for on the highway. The Spurs age is starting to show the deeper we get into this series. The Mavs came up just short in both games three and four in San Antonio, but we’ll look for them to finally breakthrough with a road playoff win when they need one the most, and force this series back to Dallas. Play on the Dallas Mavericks for 1 unit.
Tony George
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: Dallas Mavericks +3.5
Really have no other way to look here guys. Especially since I had them winning the series. Is Dallas the better team? Yes they are, but they have this nasty deal about stinking it up in the playoffs. In the first round sometimes the best team does not always win, but these two hate each other and Dallas owned them in the regular season.
I thought if this went deep into the 7 games series, the age of San Antonio would come into play. Dallas won the last game and played well. Very few teams have came back from a 1-3 mark in the playoffs and won a series, but Dallas's head coach has done it once before as ahead coach. I expect the offense of Dallas to open it up and for this game to be a no holes barred shootout out to the wire and Dallas to extend the series to back home. The Over 191 might be worth a look too.
Steve Merril
Athletics vs. Blue Jays
Play: Under 7.5
Oakland will start one of their aces in Justin Duchscherer tonight in Toronto. The righty is 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA and he’s yet to give up an earned run in his last three starts. For the second time in his last three starts, Duchscherer pitched into at least the sixth inning on fewer than 100 pitches. Duchscherer has made one start and 10 relief appearances against Toronto going 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA. Toronto's current lineup is hitting just .125 (4-32) against the right hander. The Blue Jays offense has cooled off a bit scoring just 16 runs in their last five games with 12 of those runs coming in Monday’s game alone. Toronto’s Ricky Romero has been a hard luck starter for the Blue Jays. He's 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts, but he should have had another win in last start against the Rays. He left the game with a 3-2 lead, but the Toronto bullpen proceeded to give up seven runs and blow the game for him. Romero has given up just six runs in 30 innings of work this season. The lefty is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two starts against the A's. He out-dueled Dallas Braden on April 19th winning 1-0 in Toronto. Oakland is hitting slightly over .230 on the road and just .251 against left-handed starters this season. This game has all the makings of a low-scoring pitcher’s duel.
BIG AL
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Cubs must be happy to have starter Ted Lilly back in the rotation, especially with the meltdown and subsequent demotion of Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen. Lilly came back last Saturday and pitched well in his return from off-season shoulder surgery throwing six innings against the Brewers in Milwaukee. However, he was lifted after throwing 78 pitches because his back stiffened and it was back problems which forced the veteran lefthander to delay his rehab starts and put him behind schedule coming out of spring training. The D-Backs righthander Ian Kennedy may have gotten off to a slow start but it's only a matter of time before he gets his first victory. After two sub-par starts against the Padres and Dodgers, Kennedy has come back in his last two to throw a combined 13 innings, surrendering only two earned runs while striking out 11 and walking only four. The last start in particular was impressive as Kennedy went eight quality innings against the high-powered Phillies offense and only a bullpen meltdown in his third start prevented him from getting his first victory of the season. Lilly has faced the D-Backs seven times in his career (five starts) and only has two wins to show for it. Last season, these teams met six times and the D-Backs took four of the six meetings, including two of three from the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Take Arizona.
Jim Feist
Pirates vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 8½
Dodger stadium is a big park, which is not good for a light hitting Pitttsburgh offense. Nor does it help to face an ace in Clayton Kershaw. That big curveball has led to 26 Ks in 23 innings and a 3.13 ERA. The up and down Dodger offense has never seen Pirate lefty Brian Burres before. In a battle of southpaws, look for the pitching to shine more than the offenses. Play the Pirates/Dodgers Under the total.
EZWINNERS
Toronto Blue Jays -133
This is a great match up for Toronto as the Blue Jays send their south paw starting pitcher Ricky Romero to the hill against an Oakland team that was one of the worst teams against left handed starters last season. Romero continues to dazzle so far this season with a 1.80 ERA and 25 strikeouts in four starts. In two starts against the A's last year, Romero went 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and he is pitching better than he ever has right now. The A's starting pitcher Justin Duchscherer has pitched very well this season, but even though he got the win he was shakey in his last outing against Cleveland. Duchscherer battled command problems most of the night and walked a season-high five batters but was bailed out by Oakland's defense that made several great plays in the game to keep runs off of the board. I expect the Blue Jays to be able to put a few runs on the board which should be all they need with Romero on the mound. The Blue Jays are 12-3 in the last fifteen meetings between these two teams and I expect that domination to continue in this game. Play on Toronto.
JR O'Donnell
LOS -1.5 (-120) vs PIT
Dodgers, Dodgers, Dodgers tonight boys as the Pittsburgh Pirates will be all the medicine that the "Boys from California" need as they come limping back home after getting pasted in New York. The ball goes to tough as nails Clayton Kershaw 1-0 and a nice 3.13 ERA who stops the bleeding at home tonight.
The Dodgers bounce off the deck as we don't usually lay 1.5 runs but in tonight's battle the -1.5 runs will be covered easy. The Dodgers will get to Pirates Brian Burres who sports a 0-1 and 9 + ERA. The Pirates own a league worst ERA and we note that the Pirates get shelled in Los Angeles by 5 to 7 runs.
Bobby Maxwell
Phoenix at PORTLAND (-1)
Got the NBA FREE winner on Wednesday with the Nuggets scoring the win and cover at home over the Jazz. I'm on a 86-68-3 free run and tonight I'm right back on the NBA playoffs with a comp winner coming on the Blazers as they host the Suns.
You can count on the Rose Garden crowd being absolutely in a frenzy tonight when the Blazers and Suns square off in Game 6 with the Blazers’ backs up against the wall, trailing 3-2 and facing elimination. I’ll go with the home team in this one as these youngsters are comfortable in their home environment and they’ll get contributions from everyone, including a big game from LaMarcus Aldridge.
Aldridge dominated Game 3 when the Blazers scored a home win in this series. But tonight he won’t have to be some dominant, as each of the Blazers will do their part to chip in tonight.
Phoenix took the 3-2 lead with Monday’s 107-88 easy home win. But remember that’s exactly what happened in Game 2 only to have Portland rally for the win in the next game.
The Blazers have won eight of their last 11 at home and they are 27-16 in front of the faithful.
In this series, the home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the favorite has gotten the cash in 17 of the last 26. In the Pacific Northwest, Portland is 4-1 ATS in the last five visits from Phoenix. I’m banking that they improve all of those numbers!
Portland is on ATS surges of 22-7 as a favorite of up to 4 ½ points and they’ve been responding well to losses, going 5-1 ATS in its last six after a straight-up loss.
Look for wild atmosphere in Portland tonight and a Suns win that sends this thing to a Game 7 over the weekend back in Phoenix. Play the Blazers.
4♦ PORTLAND
Karl Garrett
Milwaukee at SAN DIEGO (-140)
For Thursday, going with the Padres back home over the Brewers.
What has gotten into San Diego early this year?!?!?
The Good Fathers just took 2 of 3 in Florida, and come back home where they have won 7 of their first 9 games this season.
Milwaukee was extended to 14 innings yesterday afternoon, as Trevor Hoffman got tagged yet again to blow the save, as the Brewers hit Petco Park having lost their last pair, and 5 of their last 6.
Doug Davis hasn't shown much this spring, sporting an 0-2 mark with an over 8 ERA, while Wade LeBlanc has worked 11 innings of 1 run ball for a 1-0 mark through his first two starts.
The Padres took 4 of 6 in last year's season series against the Brewers, and they open with the win in this long weekend set.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
VEGAS EXPERTS
Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
Dallas won big on Tuesday night, but they have looked horrible in each of the two games played here in San Antonio. The Mavericks were held to just 90 and 89 points in their two losses here, and we look for the Spurs to play like it’s Game Seven here in front of their home fans. The Spurs obviously don’t want to give up their home court advantage and have to play a Game Seven on the road, and after their worst shooting performance in a month, we expect things to get back to normal here. Spurs win at home!
Play on: San Antonio Spurs
Matt Fargo
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
After winning 10 straight games in this series, the Yankees have lost three of the last five dating back to last season. The first series this season is at a 1-1 split and I think there is a ton of value on the Orioles tonight. At 4-17, the Orioles have obviously lost more money than they have won but they are playing better now and are finally starting to meet expectations. Two of the last three losses have been by just a run so even the losses have been close ones and tonight they go with rookie of the year candidate Brian Matusz. He is off to a good start this season and has now tossed two straight quality games and on the season he is allowing a very solid .242 BAA. He faced the Yankees once last season and tossed a gem, allowing only one run on four hits in seven innings in a 7-3 win at Yankee Stadium so he will be far from intimidated here. He goes against A.J. Burnett who is off to a solid start with a 2-0 record and 3.20 ERA through four starts. The problem is he has a 1.42 WHIP and now facing the Orioles could be a bigger problem. His record is 9-2 lifetime against Baltimore but he has a 5.23 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 13 starts and has been fortune the offense has bailed him out. He is undefeated at Camden Yards but a 4.75 ERA and 1.56 WHIP does not exactly show he has been dominant. The Yankees are just 5-16 in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning percentage at home of .400 or less while the Orioles are 5-1 in Matusz’ last six starts against a team with a winning record. 3* Baltimore Orioles
Tom Freese
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
San Diego starter Wade Leblanc has allowed 1 run total in 2 starts this year. The Padres are 13-8 out of the gate this year. The Padres are 11-3 their last 14 games as home favorites and they are 10-2 their last their last 12 games overall. San Diego is 4-1 in game one of a series. Milwaukee starter Doug Davis has allowed 17 runs in 18.1 innings of work. The Brewers are 3-8 in Game One of series. The Brewers are 2-5 in the last 7 starts with Doug Davis as road underdog. PLAY ON SAN DIEGO -