Dave Price
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -107
The Rays are 9-1 against teams with a losing record this season, beating these clubs by an average score of 6.9 to 2.3. And they've proven that if you can't score, you can't hang as they are 13-2 vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season, beating these teams by an average score of 7.1 to 2.7. Considering the Rays are 16-5 on the season, and winning their games by 2.8 runs per on average, I'll take them on the run line tonight.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays -129
Ricky Romero puts an end to the Blue Jays' 5-game skid tonight. Toronto is coming off two very tough series in which they lost 5 of 6 games to the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox. They'll gladly welcome the Oakland A's to town tonight, a team that has been overachieving to this point thus they are overvalued. Romero is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.867 WHIP through 4 starts this season. He has allowed just 6 earned runs, 17 hits, 9 walks in 30 innings while striking out 25.
Romero is also 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 2 career starts against Oakland, both last year. He allowed 2 earned runs in 14 innings, pitching 7 strong frames in each start. Toronto is 8-1 against the money line off 5 straight losses against division rivals since 1997. Oakland is 0-11 against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 3 seasons. Take the Blue Jays Thursday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota –1½ +1.28 over DETROIT
Carl Pavano has three quality starts in four tries this year and the best part about this guy is that he goes right after hitters. He’s only walked one guy in four starts covering 23.1 frames. He’s always pitched well at Comerica and any pitcher that stays ahead in the count and has a good strikeout rate like Pavano has a great chance to throw a gem. That’s the first thing to like about the Twins. Other things to like about them is that they’re 14-7 overall, they’re 8-4 on the road and they’re 4-1 against lefties. They’ll face one here in Dontrelle Willis. Willis can implode at any time and unlike Pavano he has serious command issues. He’s already walked 10 batters in 18 innings while striking out nine. He’s only pitched once at Comerica this year and was lit up to the tune of nine hits and two bombs in five innings of work. Incidentally, that lone home start was also a day game against the Royals. Overall this season, the league is hitting .297 against Willis and his 1.72 WHIP also indicates the disaster potential. Play: Minnesota –1½ +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
Oakland +1.21 over TORONTO
Losing is contagious and as long as the Jays are favored it’s worth a look to go against them until they snap out of it. The successive loss count is now at five and to make matters worse, the Jays have scored just one run over its last two ball games. The Jays are hitting a combined .210 during its current losing streak and things don’t figure to get much better against Justin Duchscherer. Duchscherer has not allowed a single run over his last three starts and his run-less inning streak is now up to 19. Duchscherer won’t keep it up but his pre all-star numbers have always been good (a 2.30 career ERA before the break) and he’s in a nice groove right now. It’s also worth noting that in 32 AB’s, current Jays hitters have only managed a .186 BA with just two extra base hits against him. Ricky Romero goes for the Jays and he’s damn tough indeed. He can throw a gem and has the opportunity here to do that. However, the Jays aren’t scoring runs and when that occurs, pitchers try and be too fine for fear that a single run will cost them a win. This is more about playing against the sinking Jays than it is about playing pitcher vs pitcher. Jays are playing to tiny crowds at home and are now a troubling 4-9 at the Rogers Center, where they look as lethargic as the crowds. Play: Oakland +1.21 (Risking 2 units).
SERIES
Detroit +1.11 over SAN JOSE Pinnacle
The Sharkies got by a pesky but not overly talented Av’s squad and while they looked very good on occasion, this is a vastly superior team than the one they saw in round one. Forget the Red Wings went seven or that they’re going to travel across the country for two consecutive series. That means jack. The Red Wings are fresh, they’re confident and for the first time in a long time they have an outstanding goaltender. Evgeni Nabokov is not going to face three shots a period like he did against the Av’s. The Sharks are just not playoff tough and like the Caps, they’re great in the regular season but not so great when the chips are down. Guys like Zetterberg, Datsyuk. Lidstrom and Holmstrom want it a lot more than guys like Thornton, Marleau and Heatley and that’s the reason that the Sharkies will not advance any further. Aside from that they’re also the second most talented team in this series and frankly, I give them very little chance of getting by Detroit. The Red Wings are peaking at precisely the right time and they look as sharp as ever and maybe even more so.
GAME ONE
Detroit +1.25 over SAN JOSE Pinnacle
For the same reasons above we’ll play the Red Wings in game one and should they lose game one we’ll press both our series bet and single game bet prior to game 2. Play: Detroit +1.25 (Risking units).
James Patrick Sports
A's vs. Blue Jays
Ricky Romero has been awesome to begin this season as he has yet to surrender (2) earned runs in his first (4) starts going at least (7) innings in each start. With a career (2-0) record and a (1.29) ERA versus Oakland Big Game James Patrick's selection in Major League Baseball action is Toronto Blue Jays.
Ben Burns
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Under 7.5
After a relatively high-scoring opener, yesterday's game stayed below the total, finishing with a score of 6-0. This one has a good chance of also being low-scoring.
Wainwright has been outstanding for the Cardinals so far this season. He's 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.812 WHIP. His home numbers are even better. In two starts here, he's got a commanding 1.06 ERA and 0.765 WHIP. He's allowed just two earned runs on only 10 hits in 17 innings here. During that stretch, he had 16 K's and three walks.
Jurrjens' numbers aren't nearly as impressive. That said, he's coming off back to back quality starts, both of which stayed below the total.
The Braves bullpen has a solid 3.20 ERA this season. The Cards' bullpen has a terrific 2.57 ERA, including 2.25 at home.
The Braves are averaging 3.2 runs per game on the road, hitting only .221. The Cards are averaging 3.7 at home, hitting .246.
The Cards have seen the 'under' go 6-1 in their afternoon games this season and the 'under' is also 16-4 the last 20 times that they were coming off a shutout win. With Pujols not expected to be in the starting lineup, consider the UNDER
Info Plays
3* on Texas Rangers -135
Reasons the Rangers win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. This is a 50-12 ML System hitting 80.6% over the last 5 seasons while gaining +36.2 units of profit.
2.) This system says it all as Gavin Floyd has been horrendous, and the White Sox aren't scoring runs to boot. Floyd is 0-2 with an 8.38 ERA and 2.018 WHIP this season. That means he is allowing more than 2 base runners per inning on average, which is obviously leading to a lot of runs for his opposition. His numbers are even worse on the road, going 0-2 with a 14.14 ERA and 3.000 WHIP in 2 road starts. The White Sox are not giving their pitchers much support, either, hitting .221 and scoring 3.9 RPG this season. Bet the Rangers at home.
Black Widow
1* on Houston Astros -167
There have been few pitchers as dominant against one opponent like Roy Oswalt dominates the Cincinnati Reds. Oswalt is 22-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.116 WHIP in 30 lifetime starts against the Reds. That's why we have no problem laying the heavy juice on the Astros Thursday, especially since they come in hungry after back-to-back losses to the Reds to start this series. Oswalt hasn't missed a beat this year, going 2-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.000 WHIP through 4 starts. Meanwhile, Bronson Arroyo is really struggling for the Reds going 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA in 4 starts this season. Cincinnati is 1-9 (-8.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. In what is expected to be a pitcher's duel, the Astros have the clear advantage with Oswalt on the bump. Take Houston on the Money Line.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Mavs/Spurs OVER 191
Bottom Line: Rick Carlisle wants his team to push the pace because he feels that is what will give them the best chance of winning and extending this series tonight. I anticipate the Mavs having success in doing so in this do-or-die situation as they are 11-1 OVER after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons, and we are seeing 206.2 points scored in these games on average. The Spurs only managed 81 points in Game 5 in a blowout defeat. This plays in our favor in terms of the over as well when you consider that San Antonio is 4-1 OVER in its last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The pace of this game will be faster than expected by the odds makers, resulting in the OVER.
Nelly
Milwaukee / San Diego Over
The last two Milwaukee games probably should have stayed 'under' but 'Trevor Time' proved destructive with consecutive blown saves leading to Pittsburgh wins. The Brewers are one of the top hitting teams in baseball and the 'over' is 12-6-3 for the season in Brewers games. Milwaukee is hitting .310 on the road and this is a team that has had success against left-handed pitching. Wade LeBlanc has great numbers through two starts but he will face a much more dangerous offensive team in tonight's game. Doug Davis has been one of the worst pitchers in the NL so far this season, featuring an 8.35 ERA and he could get this game 'over' by himself. Davis has allowed 17 runs in four starts and only once did he finish the fifth inning. His WHIP for the year is 2.07 and Petco Park likely can not help his cause. Milwaukee's bullpen has also been a disaster and the relief unit is well spent after a long extra-innings game yesterday afternoon and long travel out west. San Diego is hitting .277 at home against southpaws so this should be a favorable match-up for the Padres as well. Though this is a pitcher's park San Diego has been an excellent offensive team this season, scoring at least four runs in seven of the last ten games. The 'over' is 21-6-4 in the last 31 Brewers games and 13-3-2 in the last 18 Milwaukee road games so all signs point to big numbers even in this environment.
Craig Trapp
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio Spurs -3.5
The Spurs were drilled last game, not even playing the starters in the 4th quarter. Don't worry that rest does nothing but help a veteran Spurs team. SA has dominated Dallas at home winning both games of this series dominating the glass and defensive end. Dallas just has issues scoring the ball on the road and if they can't this game in an up and down game they have no chance. A close game for most of the game, we will get our cover late as Dallas fouls trying to comeback!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Reds/Astros OVER 7.5
The first 2 games of this series have finished over this number, and I expect to see at least 8 runs in tonight's contest as well. After back-to-back defeats to the Reds in this series, the Astros enter Game 3 hungry to avoid the sweep. That means they should bring a heightened sense of focus to the ball park, which should give them a nice advantage at the plate against the struggling Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo has a 10.80 ERA in his last 3 starts. Oswalt has good career numbers against the Reds, but they have started to figure him out. He has given up 4 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts against them. This isn't all that surprising when you consider how well the Reds have hit right-handed starters. In fact, they are scoring 5.0 runs per game against righty starters this season. So it comes as no surprise that the Over is 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. We'll make a small play on the Over tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
PORTLAND –1 over Phoenix
The Trail Blazers got off to a blazing start in the last game in Phoenix but then they went ice-cold and also ran into foul trouble. The Suns got to line 32 times and that’s not going to happen again tonight. Home court advantage has truly proven to be just that and it’s really hard to understand why home teams dominate so much in both college and pro basketball. The courts are the same size, the rims are the same height, the ball isn’t different, yet, unlike in any other sport, home teams dominate. Phoenix went 32-9 at home during the regular season yet were only three games above .500 on the road. So, the Blazers are going to have to slow this thing right down and get the Suns out of its comfort zone. These run and gun team’s have never had much success in playoff basketball and the Blazers strength lies in its defense and its ability to impose its will. The Blazers season is not over yet and with a packed house it says here that home court will prevail once again. Play: Portland –1 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Andre Gomes
Dallas Mavericks +4.5
The Mavericks get the job done in the last game by defeating the Spurs 103-81 as they showed more heart and passion facing a possible elimination game. Obviously I expect the Spurs to bring another kind of effort to the court tonight however I still think that we have some value with Mavericks because 4.5 points will be priceless if this game goes down to the last possession and that's exactly what I'm expecting for tonight.
Even though the Mavericks have been struggling on the road in the playoffs in the last years the fact is that they have been a better road team this season. They finished the regular season with the best road record in the league and I have to remember that in the two games played in San Antonio in this series they had a legit chance to won both games - they lost by just 7 combined points!
The Playoffs are all about adjustments and the Mavericks more exactly Rick Carlisle has been made the right adjustments in this series and I expect them to pay off tonight.
Earlier in the series the Spurs' big 3 - Duncan, Ginobili and Parker - simply torched the Mavericks on the offensive end. However the Mavericks made a great job in containing the Spurs big 3 in the last 2 games, just look for their stats:
Tim Duncan - Game 4 = 1-9 FG Game 5 = 3-9 FG
Manu Ginobili - Game 4 = 4-16 FG Game 5 = 2-7 FG
Tony Parker - Game 4 = 4-9 FG Game 5 = 6-15 FG
It was the Spurs' supporting cast that won the game 4 being George Hill the MVP of the game by shooting 11-16 from the field. However in game of this magnitude I don't think that such an inexperience player will have once again these kinds of numbers.
Also Rick Carlisle finally gave up of the "Erik Dampier experiment" as Dampier received a DNP last game. Basically Dampier has been awful in all series by being constantly outplayed and outworked by McDyess. Just look for his +/- numbers when he was on the court during this series:
Game 1: 0
Game 2: -20
Game 3: -2
Game 4: -11
Brendan Haywood is now the starting center and Najera his backup and these two players are way more aggressive on the defensive end because offensively…well they only have to rebound and setting some picks.
In game 5 Caron Butler enjoyed his biggest game in the playoffs by scoring 35 points. Surely that I don't expect him to have another huge game today but it was good to see the Mavericks' winning big and Dirk Nowitzki not having a monster game.
This contest will be a tough and physical contest since the start and in my opinion we are getting some value with the underdog and I'm taking Dallas in here as my Single Dime Play
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 547 Dallas Mavericks (+4.5)