Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, April 3

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

St. Louis at Cincinnati
After splitting the first two games of the series, the Cardinals try to take Game 3 today and come in with a 5-1 record in Lance Lynn's last 6 starts versus the Reds. St. Louis is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100).

Game 951-952: St. Louis at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 15.578; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.682
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Under

Game 953-954: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Hammel) 13.838; Pittsburgh (Rodriguez) 15.692
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-175); Over

Game 955-956: Colorado at Miami (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 14.078; Miami (Turner) 15.199
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+100); Over

Game 957-958: Washington at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 15.838; NY Mets (Wheeler) 14.240
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Under

Game 959-960: San Francisco at Arizona (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.391; Arizona (Arroyo) 14.231
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); Over

Game 961-962: Kansas City at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Ventura) 14.454; Detroit (Sanchez) 16.103
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under

Game 963-964: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hughes) 12.864; White Sox (Quintana) 14.372
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-150); Over

Game 965-966: Boston at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Doubront) 17.582; Baltimore (Chen) 15.697
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-105); Under

Game 967-968: Toronto at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 16.333; Tampa Bay (Archer) 15.550
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+135); Under

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nova) 15.372; Houston (Oberholtzer) 13.783
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Over

Game 971-972: Seattle at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Elias) 15.086; Oakland (Chavez) 16.512
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-135); Under

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Kings at SharksFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After taking a closer look at this game, an alarming trend can be found. The last 9 times these teams have played, the game has only gone over the total once and only reached the number five twice. The remaining games have been an average score of 2-1. With both teams slated to start their regular net minder, another under seems to be inevitable.

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Mavericks at ClippersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Can't seen any defense in this one! Dallas has a slew of offensive options inside and out and loves to run, 8th in the NBA in points scored, 6th in assists. But this defense is a concern, as they regularly top 100 and allow 100. Dallas improved to 4-3 on its franchise-record eight-game homestand after escaping with a 103-100 win over Sacramento on Saturday. The Mavericks, who led by 17 late in the second quarter, trailed by five with just over four minutes left because of a soft defense. Dallas is on a nice run over the total the last two weeks and the over is 19-7 in Mavericks last 26 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, plus on a 6-2 run over the total on the road. They take on a dynamite run-and-gun team in the Clippers, tops in the NBA in points scored. The Clippers recently won 16 of 18 and did not have Blake Griffin or Jamaal Crawford in Monday's 114-104 victory at Minnesota. Los Angeles didn't need them thanks to a balanced attack in which all five starters scored in double figures. Darren Collison scored 28 points and DeAndre Jordan had 11 and a season-high 24 rebounds. The over is 7-2-1 in the Clippers last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. It's the second of a back to back spot for LA, playing at Phoenix last night, while Dallas is rested, so look for the Mavs to run right at them. The over is 7-2 in the Clippers last 9 games playing on no days rest and when these teams meet the Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

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New York Rangers at Colorado AvalancheFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Colorado AvalancheFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Colorado Avalanche (48-21-6) come into this game knowing they are in the driver’s seat to take home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs if it can just outpace the Blackhawks the rest of the way in this season. look for the team to get another win here. Colorado has won four in a row and is coming off a 3-2 come from behind win over Columbus on the road on Tuesday. Captain Gabriel Landeskog scored twice including the game winner in OT to lead his team. The New York Rangers (43-30-4) come in off a 3-1 win at Vancouver. Martin St. Louis scored his first goal in a Rangers uniform. The Rangers blasted the Avalanche 5-1 at MSG the last time these teams met but I expect we have a very different outcome here in the Mile High City. Colorado is a very strong 20-6 when revenging a loss to an opponent this season. The Rangers meanwhile are just 6-9 after three consecutive road games. The Rangers are just 12-19 when facing a team with a winning record thiseason. Patrick Roy is the front runner for coach of the year in the NHL because he has been able to focus this young talented Colorado team to new highs. Consider laying the reasonable price here against a slightly overrated team from New York.

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San Francisco Giants at Arizona DiamondbacksSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Arizona DiamondbacksFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Diamondbacks and Giants put the wraps on their season opening series in the desert Thursday afternoon where Bronson Arroyo matches serves with Tim Lincecum in a matchup of pitchers whose better days are likely in the rear-view mirror. It's certainly the case for Lincecum, the former Cy Young winner, who is struggling to retain a spot in San Francisco's starting rotation. Tiny Tim enters today's contest off a rocky spring camp having posted a 2-6 record in his last eight team starts in this series. On the other side of the coin, Arroyo is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA in his last three starts against the Giants. He is also 5-0 in his last five home team starts during April. With that we'll stay at home with the Snakes in this afternoon affair today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Arizona.

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Yankees vs. AstrosFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 8FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Yankees will attempt to avoid a sweep in Houston by sending Ivan Nova to the mound against Brett Oberholtzer. Something interesting happened to Nova last year as he scrapped his slider for a two-seamer and began throwing more curveballs. Nova missed time in 2012 with a rotator cuff issue, which may have been the catalyst for the change, but it worked out tremendously. Nova went from a 5.02 ERA in 2012 to a 3.10 in 2013. His FIP fell from 4.60 to 3.47 as he cut his HR/FB rate almost in half. His 3.91 SIERA in 2012, which gave hope to 2013, also went down to 3.58.
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The repertoire change for Nova had a small impact on his strikeout rate, but had a big impact on his ability to limit damage. By virtue of more ground balls and fewer fly balls, Nova's HR/9 fell from 1.48 to 0.58. In total, over 73 percent of plate appearances against Nova ended in a strikeout or a ground ball. While Nova may not repeat the 79 percent strand rate and 3.10 ERA, he's a good bet to be somewhere in the 3.40-3.50 range when it's all said and done this season.
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Brett Oberholtzer is a rather interesting pitcher for the Astros. He's a standard-issue three-pitch lefty that sits in the low-90s with the fastball, but he has excellent control. Out of 293 batters faced, Oberholtzer walked just 13 of them. His control allowed him to work deep into games to keep a poor Astros bullpen from having too much work on his nights with two complete games out of his 10 starts.
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One of the angles we like to look at are teams facing a lefty for the first time. Only four Yankees faced Oberholtzer last season. With the Yankees' offensive struggles so far this season and the offense's tough matchup against Nova, runs will be at a premium in this game. Both pitchers have the control and ability to work deep into the game and produce a lot of weak outs. Furthermore, hitters are still trying to catch up at this point of the season and a lack of walks from both pitchers will force hitters to get on base via balls in play. No free baserunners and two suspect offenses make for a perfect under spot in this game.

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Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit TigersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Kansas City Royals +155FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Yordana Ventura has one of the best arms around but this will be the first season he is starting in the rotation. He can hit triple digits on the radar gun and even if he is not quite ready for the Bigs he might be more than ready to dominate the Tigers for an afternoon. As good as his stuff is the word out KC is that his makeup may be even better. These are the two best teams in the AL Central and if KC is going to push Detroit they need Ventura to be really strong like he showed in flashes last year.

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Boston vs. BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I like the Orioles to win Thursday's rubber match w/ the Red Sox....
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Baltimore won 2-1 on Opening Day before losing 6-2 yesterday. Today's game features a battle of southpaws w/ Felix Doubront opposing Wei-Yin Chen. The Red Sox starter (Doubront) has a nice won-loss record, but his ERA tells a different story. Down the stretch last year, it was 4.66 and that doesn't even include a poor relief outing against these Orioles where he allowed five runs while getting only four outs on the final day of the regular season.
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I think that the Orioles are better than they're being given credit for. They have a pretty strong lineup from top to bottom, especially in the power department as they led all of MLB in home runs a season ago. They are also a great team in the field. They are a good value at Camden Yards tonight as Doubront's lifetime ERA in this park is a lofty 4.08 over three starts.

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Kansas City +1½ -154FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This game has the 0-2 Royals at the 2-0 Tigers. Expect the Royals to play very desperate today being 0-2 but really could have won both games. We had the Royals plus the points in game one and I like that play again today. Yordano Ventura is a virtual unknown from the Dominican but has had a huge spring and has electric stuff. This line opened at +157 and has gone to +137 despite 58% of the money going on the Tigers. I expect a win for the Royals today but will take the +1.5 to increase our odds.

Baltimore -110

This game has the 1-1 Red Sox at the 1-1 Orioles. This is a game where the Orioles want to make a statement that they are for real in the A.L. East this year and winning this game will be a must. I think the big advantage for Baltimore will be at Starting pitcher where the Orioles send Wei-Yin Chin to the mound last season he was 7-7 with a 4.07 ERA. He had a up and down Spring and I believe he bounces back today with a rock solid start. Doubront comes in hot off a great spring but this guy I'm not sold on. Early heavy public action on the Boston here but this line is holding fast. Take the Orioles to win.

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Alex Smart

Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Play: Philadelphia Flyers -144

Columbus enters this game in Philadelphia barely with any hope left for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Flyers are also not completely secure in their postioning entering the post season, as they are just 4 points ahead of the Blue Jackets. One thing that is for sure, however, is the strong play of the Flyers against top tier teams of late, as they have played competively (4-0-2) vs St. Louis Blues, Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks and Boston Bruins since March 15th. This team in my opinion , is a dark-horse entering the play offs that must be feared and respected. I know the Blue Jackets are a fine young team, but tonight against a superior opponents Im betting they go down to defeat. It must be noted that the home team has won 8 straight meetings and the Flyers have recently owned Columbus at home, in this series, as is evident by a 0-5 run in the city of brotherly love!

Alex Smart's Featured Package

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SEATTLE MARINERS AT OAKLAND ATHLETICSVlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: SEATTLE MARINERS +119FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The chalk has come up short each of the last two seasons in the AL West. Oakland ended up winning the division both years, although they were no better than the consensus third place pick prior to the start of 2012 and 2013. This season, the Seattle Mariners are the team seeking to pull the upset and they’re off to a great start with there sweep over the Angels.
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Clearly, it’s way too early for over the top optimism, but this is a different looking baseball team than the one I’ve seen for several seasons. Robinson Cano was more than just an upgrade from a talent standpoint. It’s as if his presence has convinced the rest of the Mariners that they’re now serious about trying to win. Attitude can’t won by itself, but it’s a huge intangible for any team, and right now we’re seeing a Seattle entry that is simply better than the totally non-threatening squads that have been the norm for this franchise.
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I’m not all that high on the A’s this season, and that opinion was expressed before they lost their probable top starting pitcher for the season. A big issue for me was the bullpen, where a couple of important pieces from last season have relocated. That has turned out to be eerily prophetic out of the gate with new closer Jim Johnson already blowing two saves in pretty ugly fashion.
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Tonight, we get a hookup of two surprise starting pitchers. Rookie Roenis Elias makes his big league debut for the Mariners and journeyman Jesse Chavez toeing the rubber for the A’s. Elias is pitching for the first time above AA, and Chavez was ticketed for the Oakland bullpen before all the injuries hit.
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Elias is a Cuban import who is mostly an unknown quantity at this point. The lefty has made just 60 starts at the minor league level since joining the Mariners organization in 2011. Elias was only 6-11 at AA last season, but actually pitched much better than that and he’s been impressive this spring.
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Chavez was pretty much going nowhere until he discovered a curveball and a cutter a couple of years ago. Prior to that, he threw fastballs, sliders and change ups and none of those were standout offerings. Then Chavez dumped the slider in favor of a curve and learned to throw the cutter, and his fortunes have subsequently risen. I can see Chavez being forced into the rotation ending up as a blessing in disguise for Oakland. I don’t think he’s a star in the making, but he could well end up as a pretty good back of the rotation type if he can absorb the increased workload.
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As for Elias, I’m pretty sure the game plan is for him to get more seasoning at AAA once the injured Mariners starters are ready. But Elias should have a nothing to lose attitude here, and he fits an angle I’ve enjoyed some success with over several years. I like backing southpaws that opposing hitters have never seen. It seems to be an advantage situation for the pitcher and I can tell you I’ve had more winners than losers playing this scenario.
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The A’s are off the doubleheader on Tuesday, while Seattle was coasting to an easy win over the struggling Angels, so there’s a bit of a scheduling edge for the Mariners here. That could really come into play late as the M’s are going to have the fresher bullpen in a game where neither starting pitcher figures to go more than six innings max. Seattle is hot out of the gate and catching a decent price to boot. I’ll side with the underdog Mariners to get to 4-0.

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Minnesota vs SMUFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Under 131.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The SMU Mustangs were the most notable snubs to the NCAA Tournament, but instead of pouting the Mustangs have gone on to win four games to advance to this NIT Championship Game vs. the Minnesota Golden Gophers! SMU has gotten here with defense, allowing an average of 61.3 points in the four NIT wins, which is not surprising for a team ranked 17th in the country in defensive efficiency, thanks to ranking 14th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 27th in defensive turnover percentage. That defense has had to be great because SMU ranks only 67th in offensive efficiency. Minnesota had three easy wins before the semifinals, but the offense struggled with a rise in class in a 67-64 overtime win over Florida State. With SMU having a similar profile to FSU, expect another low scoring game here. The ‘under’ is 19-12, 61.3 percent in SMU games this season.

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Colorado -110 over MIAMIFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Jacob Turner can be labeled as a failed prospect at this point in his career but there are reasons to keep him on your radar. He gained nearly one mph on his four-seam fastball in 2013. He missed a lot of bats in 2012. Nearly all of Turner’s problems come against LH bats and there are some notable lefties in the Rockies lineup like Justin Morneau and Carlos Gonzales among them. Turner went 3-8 with a 3.74 ERA in 118 IP for the Marlins last year. He looked like he was taking a step up but he hit a wall in 2H, losing fastball velocity and command. Turner’s low K rate versus LHB (29 K in 239 plate appearances) is still a lingering issue. Turner is still very young (23) and has a 1st-round pedigree but nothing here says 2014 is the year.
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Franklin Morales is an interesting case. He posted his best skills in 2012 but a late-season shoulder injury bled into 2013, leaving additional health issues in its wake (back, chest, shoulder again). His last six weeks were very impressive last year but it was a tiny sample. Morales’ gaudy numbers in spring training could be a sign of things to come. Looking strong after missing close to 150 games to injury in 2012-2013, Morales fanned 28 in his 25.2 spring innings, limiting batters to a .194 BA. Manager Walt Weiss made special notice of Morales controlling the tempo with which he worked and gaining control of his cut fastball, particularly against RHB. The good news here is that the Marlins will send up mostly right-handed hitters to the plate. With a career record of 13-18 to go along with a 4.38 ERA, Morales is an under the radar starter that could bring nice profits early on. We’ll test that here.
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TAMPA BAY -1 -107 over TorontoFORFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rays’ bats have gone silent the past couple of games after a strong showing in the opener but they figure to wake up again here against Brandon Morrow. An entrapped radial nerve in Morrow’s right forearm cut loose two-thirds of his season and put an end to 2013's misery. Trouble with strand rate has haunted most of his recent seasons and now a steep K rate dive and injury questions are piling on. Seems he's ready for the season in terms of heath but his skills are in a serious three-year decline. In 2010 and 2011, Morrow put up an xERA around 3.50 and a strong strikeout rate of 10 K’s per nine innings. Those days are long gone, as his injury shortened 2013 ended with just 6½ K’s per nine and a low 9% swinging strike rate. Morrow is a fly-ball pitcher (+40%) who is missing fewer bats and even when he was food, he lacked mental toughness. Now that’s he’s more fragile than ever, the Rays figure to be the first team to take advantage of Morrow this season.
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Chris Archer went 9-7 with a 3.22 ERA in 129 innings last season. Archer is another thoroughbred from the Tampa pitching stable. He showed his youth when he struggled with control in first half last year but got it together after the break. His command improvement gets our attention and so does the fact that he’s mastering his changeup, a solid third pitch behind his mid-90s fastball and good slider. With groundball percentage bent and dominance vs RHB, Archer is one to invest in.

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Calgary +186 over TAMPA BAYFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. What a great spot for the Flames. Tampa clinched a playoff berth with its 3-1 victory over the Canadiens on Tuesday, its first playoff clincher since 2011. There’s also a good chance they will give goaltender Ben Bishop the night off here. Bishop has been rumored to be playing with a couple of nagging injuries and this seems like the perfect spot to give him a night off. Even if that is not the case, Bishop has been less than solid, as he’s allowed three goals or more in eight of his past 10 games. With upcoming games against Dallas and Toronto and after securing a playoff spot by defeating Montreal, the team they are most likely to be playing in the first round, this is exactly what letdown spots are made of.
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Calgary is coming off a loss in Toronto but once again they remained a tough out, just like they’ve been for the past two months. The Flames have dropped three of their past four and as a result their stock has plummeted but it’s not warranted. Calgary comes to play every game. Since January 22, a span of 26 games, they are the NHL’s second highest scoring team. The Flames have scored three times or more in nine of their past 14 games. If they duplicate that here, they have a great chance of winning and if Anders Lindback is in goal, they are almost assured of scoring at least three times. This hard working team is in too good a spot while being offered too big a price to ignore.
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Dallas -½ +142 over CAROLINAFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Hurricanes are not an easy out. They may be the best team that is going to miss the playoffs this year but their inconsistent play, especially against teams above them in the standings, has been an ongoing issue the entire season. The ‘Canes can look so good one night and completely uninterested the next. This one, however, is not about fading the ‘Canes, it’s more about backing the Stars, a dangerous team that is peaking at precisely the right time.
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Dallas has won five of six and as a result, they have moved into the final playoff spot in the West. The Stars have two games in hand on both Phoenix and Vancouver, the two clubs that are trying to catch them. This is an opportunity for Dallas to solidify their position even more. The Stars have outscored their last three opponents by a count of 17-5. After defeating the Blues in St. Louis on Saturday, Dallas went into Washington on Tuesday and wiped out the Caps, 5-0. The Stars only loss over their last six games occurred against Chicago. There’s an old cliché that says when the going gets tough the tough get going and the Stars have been the epitome of that saying. Dallas is playing the way Lindy Ruff wants them to by being a gritty team with a will to win greater than their opponent. We’ll continue to back this team until they show us something different but right now they’re playing as well as any team in the league. The West versus East angle doesn’t hurt our chances either.
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Pass NBA & CBBFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM