Steve Merril
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Kansas City Royals +1½ -156
Kansas City’s youngster Yordano Ventura will take on Detroit’s veteran Anibal Sanchez on Thursday afternoon. Ventura pitched in three games last year, giving up 6 runs and 13 hits striking out 11 while walking only six. His spring went well as he gave up just 7 runs and 19 hits in 23.1 innings of work; he struck out 23 while walking six. The Tigers’ offense hasn’t been that impressive without Prince Fielder so far this season.
Anibal Sanchez last faced Major League hitting on March 12th. Since that outing, Sanchez has only done side work while dealing with his injury. He’s simply not ready to go much longer than 75 pitches today. Billy Butler (4-15), Alcides Escobar (4-15), Alex Gordon (5-15) and Justin Maxwell (3-7) have good numbers against Sanchez. There is good value on the run line with the Royals in this game, especially since these two teams have already played two 1-run games in this series.
Jimmy Boyd
SMU -3
You have to be impressed with the way SMU has responded to being left out of the NCAA Tournament. The Mustangs are on a mission to prove the committee wrong and they can do just that with a win over Minnesota in the NIT Championship. I look for head coach Larry Brown and the SMU players to do just that.
While both the Gophers and Mustangs had an easy opening round matchup, SMU has had the more difficult path to the title game with their last three coming against LSU, Cal and Clemson. Minnesota's only real challenge came in the semifinals, where they barely squeaked by Florida State 67-64 in overtime.
The Mustangs are 14-7 ATS versus teams with a winning record this season, while the Gophers are just 1-7 ATS away from home against teams who have outscored the opposition by 8+ points per game. Minnesota's win over the Seminoles was just their sixth victory away from home this season. In fact, the Gophers have lost more games on the road than SMU has lost all season.
The Mustangs rank 30th in Kenpon and 31st in BPI. Minnesota is just 52nd in Kenpom and 47th in the BPI. There's clearly value with SMU laying just 3-points.
Steve Rosen
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Boston Red Sox +102
The Boston Red Sox look to begin their World Series defense with a series victory over a division rival when they visit the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday in the finale of a three-game set. Boston dropped Monday's series opener 2-1 before posting a 6-2 victory Wednesday thanks to four RBIs from Mike Napoli and a two-run homer from David Ortiz. The Red Sox received a pair of strong outings from their starting pitchers, and Felix Doubront will try to become the third straight Boston hurler to yield two runs or fewer.
Doubront has gotten off to a good start in each of the last two seasons, only to fade somewhat down the stretch.
Chen has a 5.08 ERA in seven career starts against Boston, including a 7.29 ERA in four starts last season. Pedroia is 11-for-19 against Chen can't win against Boston.
Timothy Black
Yankees vs. Astros
Play: Under 8
The Under is now 7-0-1 in the Yankees' last 8 road games and 15-5-2 in their last 22 games overall. Also, the Under is 8-3 in Nova's last 11 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. After last night's 3-1 Houston win, the series has now seen the Under hit in 5 straight games.
Jack Jones
Dallas Mavericks +4½
The Dallas Mavericks (44-31) are in desperate need of a victory tonight. They are in a four-way race for the final three playoff spots in the Western Conference. They share identical records with Phoenix and Memphis, and they trail Golden State by two games for the No. 6 seed. A loss tonight and they'd be on the outside looking in.
Clearly, motivation will not be a problem for the Mavericks in this one. This has been a very resilient bunch, going a perfect 5-0 straight up in their last five games following a loss. They want to erase the sour taste of a 120-122 overtime loss at the buzzer to the Warriors Tuesday night, and the only way to do that is to beat the Clippers tonight.
Dallas actually could not catch Los Angeles at a better time. Sure, the Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season, but they are running on fumes. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days off a 112-108 win at Phoenix last night. They are at a huge disadvantage in the rest department in this one, which is the biggest reason I like the Mavericks to cover.
The Mavericks are 38-13 ATS in their last 51 games following a S.U. loss. Dallas is 37-14 ATS in its last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Mavericks are 45-18 ATS in their last 63 games following an ATS loss. Dallas is 43-18 ATS in its last 61 road games overall. The Clippers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Dallas is 7-2 in its last nine meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the Mavericks Thursday.
Will Rogers
Seattle vs. Oakland
Pick: Seattle
After having to play a doubleheader yesterday, I'll go against the A's today.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Fatigue - Because Cleveland will not return to Oakland the rest of the season, the two teams were forced to "play two" yesterday, of which they split. It appeared as if the A's were on their way to a sweep, but they lost the second game 6-4 after allowing three runs in the top of the ninth. Look for that to have a carryover effect to tonight.
2. Seattle Sweep - Another reason the Mariners are worth a shot at plus-money is the fact they opened their season by sweeping the Angels on the road. They outscored them 26-8.
3. X-Factor - Seattle has made money at the expense of Oakland the last two years, going 11-8 (+$600)
Bob Balfe
Houston Astros +125
I think it is comical when people say it’s hard to sweep a team or it is hard to beat a team 3 times in a row. No it is not. The Yankees have yet to get going this season and are not the same team we are used to in the past. Houston is no playoff team, but I like their pitcher today who had a great spring. You never know what you are going to get from Nova and with the Yankee bats silent I think the Astros can win this game. This would be a great accomplishment for the city of Houston to start getting some buzz around their baseball team if they can start by sweeping the Yankees.
Ian Cameron
Boston at Baltimore
Play: Over 8.5
I’m always reluctant to bet Overs in April in colder weather climates like Baltimore but the numbers indicate to me this should be a high scoring affair at Camden Yards. Felix Doubront is not a good matchup for the Orioles who have a lineup that matches up well against lefties. Doubront has pedestrian numbers against Baltimore and was tagged for 4 runs on 7 hits in just 4.2 innings in his lone start against at Camden Yards in 2013. Doubront was rocked in spring training as opponents batted .357 with an ugly 1.94 WHIP. On the flip side, Wei-Yin Chen has shown flashes of potential for Baltimore over the last couple seasons but he has a glaringly rough track record against the Boston Red Sox. Chen has a 5.08 ERA in seven career starts against Boston, including a 7.29 ERA in four starts last season and much like his mound opponent tonight, Chen also labored in spring training posting a 6.39 ERA in four starts. Neither bullpen is what I call a lockdown group especially in middle relief and we could see come into play relatively early. Tonight’s home plate umpire is slated to be Ed Hickox who was 16-9 to the Over in his 25 games behind the plate calling balls and strikes last season. This total is fluctuating between 8.5 and 9 at various locations but the bottom line is we need both teams to get to 4 runs to guarantee at least a push. Shop around.
Joe Gavazzi
SMU -3
No knock on the Gophers, who have gone 7-2 SU since losing at Ohio St. February 22nd. The only losses in that timeframe have come to Michigan and Wisconsin. On Tuesday night, they held off a Florida St. comeback for a 67-64 win. Prior to that game, SMU authored one of their classic comeback victories in a 65-59 win, and cover, against Clemson. The Ponies, more than any other team, have used the NCAA snub as motivation for this event. As a team, they are highly motivated to win this event for their 2nd year veteran HC Brown, who sees this return to his NYC roots as a bit of a homecoming. A victory tonight would punctuate his long and storied career. Must respect the Gophers' pressure defense. But, SMU is an even better defensive team, allowing just 62/38/32 with a +4.7 rebound margin. Led by Hollins & Hollins (not a law firm), the Gophers may have more high-profile players. But, SMU has more offense from more sources. In using a 9-man rotation, the Mustangs average 48% from the field, 38% from the arc with 15 Assists per game. In addition, SMU has PG Moore, who is capable of breaking the Minnesota pressure defense contributing to transition baskets in the open court. Take the superior offensive and defensive team with the greater motivation.
Frank Jordan
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: San Antonio Spurs +4
San Antonio is the hottest team in the NBA with wins in each of their last 19 games. Oklahoma City was neck and neck with the Spurs for top billing in the West but with this winning streak they have fallen four games back. In San Antonio wins this game they will be up five games with six to play all but wrapping up the top seed. Oklahoma City hasn't been playing too badly they have wins in eight of their last 10 games and are 31-7 at home this season. Look for a preview of the Western Conference Finals with the Spurs winning number 20 in a row. Play San Antonio
Tom Grassi
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Dallas Mavericks +4½
The Mavs venture out on the road tonight after playing the last 8 games at home. The home stand wasn’t that great as they split winning four and dropping four. They were awful against the spread beating the line only twice. On Monday they lost a tough one to Golden State 122-120 failing as 5-point favorites.
The Clippers have been traveling of late playing their last five on the road. Last night they were in Phoenix and scored a 112-108 win, covering as 2.5-point dogs. That was their fourth straight ATS win.
Tonight, the Clippers opened as 5.5-point favorites. The action is virtually even on the game but the line has dropped with the LAC only a 4 or 4.5-point favorite. These teams met last week in Dallas and the Clippers beat the Mavs 109-103 in a pick game. We look for the Mavs to keep this one close and an outright win wouldn’t be a surprise.
Jeff Alexander
Red Sox/Orioles Under 8½
With the first 2 games coming in under the number, these teams are now 13-5-1 UNDER in the last 19 meetings. I expect this trend to continue with Doubront and Chen getting the ball. The Under is 5-1 in Doubront's last 6 starts when opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, 6-2 in his last 8 starts as an underdog, 7-3 in his last 10 starts versus AL East foes and 4-1 in his last 5 starts versus the Orioles. The Under is 26-10 in Chen's last 36 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 9-2 in his last 11 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a favorite and 8-3 in his last 11 home starts. The Under is 8-1-1 in the Orioles' last 10 home games versus a left-handed starter.
Dennis Macklin
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Play: New York Yankees -138
The Astros have done nothing wrong to this point in the series and have actually maximized their chances. Brett Oberholzer has been decent in his Astro tenure. The Yankees beat him 3-2 on September 27th in a meaningless game to finish out last year. The Bombers are off to a slow start. They got behind off the git in the first two games and have left a ton of guys on. Nova was a pretty good streak stopper (bad) in his breakout rookie year and he should have some success against an Astro squad that might not be as good as last year's terrible bunch. Yanks could really use a win here with Tanaka making debut start tomorrow in Toronto. They get it.
Timothy Black
Yankees vs. Astros
Play: Under 8
The Under is now 7-0-1 in the Yankees' last 8 road games and 15-5-2 in their last 22 games overall. Also, the Under is 8-3 in Nova's last 11 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. After last night's 3-1 Houston win, the series has now seen the Under hit in 5 straight games.
Steve Janus
Murray State -7½
Yale is expected to be without forward Justin Sears, who is without a doubt their best player. Sears not only leads the Bulldogs in scoring and rebounding, but he averages nearly 2 blocks and just over a steal a game on the defensive end. Murray State has won all three of their home games in the CIT by double-digits and are 15-1 at home this season. Murray State should have no problem winning here by 8-points.