Dave Price
Seattle Mariners +125
The Mariners get the call as Thursday's free selection because of how well they have been hitting. Seattle is off to a 3-0 start behind a .309 batting average and 8.7 runs per game average. Oakland is just 1-2 and could be feeling the effects of yesterday's double header. Plus, the A's are scoring just 3.3 runs per game while batting .242. You want to back road teams playing on Thursday that had at least 10 more hits than their opponent last game. Doing so has produced an 83-43 ATS mark since 1997. The Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog while the A's are 2-5 in their last 7 games as a favorite. Take Seattle.
Jack Jones
Dallas Mavericks +4½
The Dallas Mavericks (44-31) are in desperate need of a victory tonight. They are in a four-way race for the final three playoff spots in the Western Conference. They share identical records with Phoenix and Memphis, and they trail Golden State by two games for the No. 6 seed. A loss tonight and they'd be on the outside looking in.
Clearly, motivation will not be a problem for the Mavericks in this one. This has been a very resilient bunch, going a perfect 5-0 straight up in their last five games following a loss. They want to erase the sour taste of a 120-122 overtime loss at the buzzer to the Warriors Tuesday night, and the only way to do that is to beat the Clippers tonight.
Dallas actually could not catch Los Angeles at a better time. Sure, the Clippers are playing their best basketball of the season, but they are running on fumes. They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days off a 112-108 win at Phoenix last night. They are at a huge disadvantage in the rest department in this one, which is the biggest reason I like the Mavericks to cover.
The Mavericks are 38-13 ATS in their last 51 games following a S.U. loss. Dallas is 37-14 ATS in its last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Mavericks are 45-18 ATS in their last 63 games following an ATS loss. Dallas is 43-18 ATS in its last 61 road games overall. The Clippers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Dallas is 7-2 in its last nine meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the Mavericks Thursday.
Sam Martin
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Red Sox and Orioles have split the first two games of this series, but looking at the box scores it's clear Boston has outplayed the O's in both games. Red Sox out-hit Baltimore 9-6 in their season-opening loss, then out-hit them 10-6 in yesterday's win. Baltimore hitting just .194 as a team out of the gate and we don't trust them to win two games in one series without heating up at the plate.
The last time Boston's Felix Doubront faced Baltimore was last year here in Baltimore - and against today's starter Wei-Yin Chen - a game the Red Sox won by a blowout 13-2 score. Boston was a similar small road favorite in that game and crushed Chen to the tune of eight runs (all earned) on eight hits (two home runs) in just 3 2/3 innings of work. Doubront owns an 18-9 team start record in his last 27 road starts overall, and at this price Boston seems like a safe play.
Scott Delaney
My free winner for tonight is on the NIT title game, between SMU and Minnesota, as we have a pair of No. 1 seeds in the championship game. We also have a pair of legendary coaching names on the sideline, with coach Larry Brown leading SMU and Richard Pitino guiding the Golden Giophers. Okay, so the latter is legendary in name only, thanks to his father. Still, it's intriguing. And my money is on the SMU Mustangs minus the -3 points.
As the main bubble left out of the dance, it's always important to see how a team will react in being left out of the Big Dance. The 'Stangs have responded impressively. Rather than pouting about missing the senior prom, SMU is ready to sit on the throne for junior prom king, showing everyone the job-well-done Brown has performed.
SMU has balance at both ends of the court, as it thrives on a defensive nature to create scoring opportunities at the opposite end. It's uptempo style can also be disruptive because of the team's athleticism.
I like what Pitino has done, and I appreciate the fact the Golden Gophers have made it as far as they have in this event. I've always had an affinity for this program, and was ecstatic when Tubby Smith had the program, then was pleased to see Pitino get his chance.
But tonight, I have to roll with the better overall team, the seasoned coach and the squad out to prove the senior prom selection committee wrong. Lay the points with SMU.
3♦ SMU
Craig Davis
Your free play today is on the OKC Thunder over San Antonio in a possible Western Conference Finals preview at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City.
The Spurs and the Sixers have recently been grabbing all the headlines in the NBA, one for beating every team in the league and the other for losing every game... I'm sure you can guess which is which.
The Spurs have been rolling through the league, winning their last 19 games by an average of 14 points per game. Needless to say they are the hottest team in the league and seem to be the new favorite heading into the playoffs.
But like every team in the league, they do have a nemesis... a team that is quietly becoming their biggest rival and a team that has given them fits over the last few years.
That team is the OKC Thunder.
The last two meetings between these two have taken place in San Antonio... both OKC wins (111-105 and 113-100). Prior to those two, OKC beat the Spurs by six and by 12 at home. In fact, the Thunder has beaten San Antonio eight of the last 10 times they played... and one of those games was a two-point, buzzer-beater home win.
They haven't had nearly as much success winning in OKC... as the last time they did that was way back in 2010 when the Thunder weren't nearly as talented as they are today.
While I respect San Antonio's winning streak and the way they are slicing through every team that gets in their way, tonight is different. Oklahoma City will continue their dominance over the Spurs with a nine-point win and cover.
5♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Jeff Benton
Thursday's freebie is the Murray State Racers to close out the CIT with a win and cover on their home court where they have lost just once all season long.
The deck is definitely stacked against Yale in this one, as they are now playing on the road for the 4th straight time in this tournament. Yes, the Bulldogs have shown bite, winning and covering each of their previous 3 road games, but they did suffer a major hit in Tuesday's win at VMI, as forward Justin Sears suffered a wrist injury that has him doubtful for tonight's game.
Sears had scored 15 points and grabbed 4 rebounds before leaving after 25 minutes of play. His loss will leave the Elis a little short against a Racers team that stands at 11-2-1 against the spread on their home court this season.
This one shapes up to be a double-digit win and cover for Murray State.
4♦ MURRAY STATE
Gabriel Dupont
My free play for today is going to be a college basketball game for tonight. The NIT championship game comes down to a pair of No. 1 seeds, with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (24-13 SU) against the SMU Mustangs, and I am going to play the Over.
Why Minnesota can get this total high - I liked the way the Golden Gophers controlled most of their semifinal against Florida State. I didn't like how Minnesota tried to give the game away at the end. First-year coach Richard Pitino is showing off his pedigree, as he's coached his tail off in this event, and he has to be smart enough to know the key to a win tonight is to score on SMU's stringent D.
Why SMU will help this number over - As defensive as the Mustangs are, they've covered the betting line in 11 of their last 15 games against winning teams, and tonight is the most important game of the season for them. They need to push the tempo tonight, and feed off their defensive stops. They cannot rest on their defensive laurels, because Minnesota is going to strike.
Basically, why the OVER is my SMART FREE PLAY in this game - SMU feels it was snubbed by the Big Dance's Selection Committee, so that's why we've seen it come into this event on tear, looking motivated since its first win. Though it's tough to look past how well the Mustangs are playing, I don't like the wiseguy move on Minnesota, and am leery for a last-second shot.
Minnesota as an underdog is hard to ignore, too, as it has performed well since losing to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament. Both teams come in on a slew of point-spread win streaks, as SMU has covered five of six against non-conference opponents, while the Gophers have cashed in five of seven games. Now I know the under is on a 4-1 run in the NIT Finals, but with both teams playing their best basketball, look for a shootout.
5♦ Minnesota/SMU Over
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is going to be a 4-point teaser in college basketball. I obviously don't like the college card - which is why I'm playing the NBA - but on a teaser, I don't mind taking the SMU Mustangs over to an underdog and the Murray State Racers down four points to a more comfortable spread.
With the Mustangs, I do think they're on a mission to prove to the D-I Selection Committee it was wrong in leaving it off the big-boy bracket three weeks ago. Coach Larry Brown has done a tremendous job in rebuilding this program, and now it's just a win away. Minnesota's young skipper - Richard Pitino - will have his father in attendance for this game, I'm sure, but I have to wonder if the younger Pitino will be looking over his shoulder tonight, wondering what dad would do against Brown - a coaching legend with championship experience at every level. This one could come down to the end, and which team has the wherewithal to hang tight til the last buzzer. For me, it's a safe play to make SMU an underdog on a teaser, and bank on Brown's experience.
In the other game, out of the CIT, we have ourselves an interesting contest between Murray State and Yale, as each have survived four tough games to get to the championship game. I have to give the edge to the Racers as they followed their road win in the tourney-opener at Missouri State, with three straight home wins over Omaha, Towson and Pacific. The momentum favors them, as Yale opened the event with a win over Quinnipiac at home, and has since won three straight road games over Holy Cross, Columbia and VMI. Traveling will catch up with the Bulldogs, who are going to run into trouble tonight.
2♦ TEASER: SMU (+1)/Murray State (-3')
Brad Wilton
Tonight I like the Over in the NIT Final between Minnesota and SMU.
Sure did not look like Clemson and SMU were going to eclipse the total on Tuesday, and while that total was a lot lower than tonight's total, the teams did make it Over in that game, as the Mustangs have played 2 of their last 3 in this NIT tourney Over the posted price.
Minnesota went to overtime against Florida State in the semifinals, and the game still held Under, but that has not been the case in most of Minnys neutral site games, as they are 13-6-1 Over the total their last 20 neutral site contests.
5 of the Golden Gophers last 9 games have landed in the Over column, and I think that tonight both sides will try and push the ball just a little and we will see enough points to land this NIT Final Over the posted total when it has gone final.
Not going to go Over by a ton, but with free throws factored in during the closing minutes as one team looks to extend the game, I think the Over is the safer of the two choices tonight.
1♦ MINNESOTA-SMU OVER
Harry Bondi
DALLAS (+5.5) over LA Clippers
Dallas finds itself in a three-way battle for a Western Conference playoff spot. Mavericks have the same record as both Memphis and Phoenix and catch the Clippers off a division clinching win at Phoenix last night. Combine that with the fact that Blake Griffin is still being bothered by back spasms, and Dallas has always played the Clippers tough in LA going 7-2 ATS in La-La land and you will see why we expect the Mavericks to get us another easy FREE game winner tonight.
Jeff Scott
3 UNIT PLAY
SMU -3 over Minnesota: I like the Mustangs in this one. SMU is playing very hard and want to show everyone that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament. The Mustangs have a huge edge on defense and the Gophers won't be able to shoot like they did in the first half of their last game vs the Noles. They did cool off in the second half and ended up shooting just 38.8% from the floor for game. Let's also give the Mustangs a big coaching edge as well,with the young Pitino going up against Larry Brown. I feel that will pay dividends in the second half when more strategy is needed. I look for the Mustangs to pull away late for at least an 8 point win.
1 UNIT PLAY
SMU/ Minnesota Under 132: Yes I will be going with the under in this one. Championship games usually breed tightness and slower play and this game should be no different. The Mustangs are built on their defense, as they have allowed just 62.2 ppg on the year overall and just 61.4 ppg on neutral courts, while Minnesota has averaged just 65.4 ppg on neutral courts this year. The Gophers are not a great defensive team, but SMU is not an overpowering offensive team, so the Gophers should be able to keep them in check, especially in what should be a slow paced game. 65-62 sounds about right here.
OC Dooley
Mavericks / Clippers Under 211.5
The first time these pair of squads met out west in Los Angeles this season was right around New Years Day when the game turned into a 129-127 shootout. What was amazing about that contest was Clippers superstar and one of the game’s great offensive catalysts Chris Paul was forced to watch from the sidelines due to injury. Another eye-opener from that early January matchup was that the game was extremely physical with FIVE TECHNICAL fouls called including a “flagrant” when LA’s other superstar Blake Griffin was shoved to the ground. At most offshore locations the total for tonight’s rematch opened up at the 213 plateau but has since taken a “dip” which to me speaks volumes. Here is a 64-PERCENT SYSTEM (62-36 the past five years with a high posted total of 200 points or more) which plays teams like Dallas “revenging” consecutive losses where an opponent scored Triple-Digits each time UNDER the total, a “marginal” winning team (51 to 60%) facing a winning opponent. Here is an even higher percentage 68-PERCENT SYSTEM (43-20 the past five years with a high total of 210+ points) which plays “cold” teams like Dallas failing to cover the spread at least six times in an eight-game span UNDER the spot against an “hot” opponent who has successfully covered the spread at least four times in a six-game span.
Dr. Bob
Opinion – OKLAHOMA CITY (-4) over San Antonio
San Antonio has won 19 games in a row but the Spurs have lost 4 straight to the Thunder and coach Greg Popovich has a tendency to rest his older stars on the 2nd of back-to-back nights and this is the 5th game in 7 nights. The line move up to -4 points is an indication that Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili may be rested. Not having Duncan and Parker makes no difference but Ginobili lead the Spurs in plus-minus per 48 minutes and they are not as good when he doesn’t play (but equally good without Duncan and Parker). OKC applies to a 36-5 ATS subset of a 78-32-4 ATS situation but the line would be too high if Ginobili plays and I get the Thunder by 4 ½ points if he doesn’t play. The problem is that it’s uncertain who will be playing for the Spurs tonight and I can’t take the chance that Ginobili plays since I would get OKC by just 1 ½ points with Ginobili playing regardless of whether Duncan or Parker play. I’ll lean with Oklahoma City if Ginobili gets downgraded to doubtful.