Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, April 4

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Philadelphia at Atlanta
The Phillies look to build on their 15-4 record in Cliff Lee's last 19 road starts against a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115)

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 13.852; Pittsburgh (McDonald) 15.076
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-150); Under

Game 953-954: San Diego at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 14.900; NY Mets (Gee) 14.241
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+125); Over

Game 955-956: Miami at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (LeBlanc) 13.903; Washington (Zimmermann) 16.098
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-260); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-260); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 15.309; Atlanta (Medlen) 14.982
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115); Over

Game 959-960: Detroit at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 16.326; Minnesota (Pelfrey) 15.353
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-145); Under

Game 961-962: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.294; White Sox (Floyd) 14.708
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+105); Over

Game 963-964: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.539; Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 15.937
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Over

Game 965-966: Seattle at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Maurer) 16.059; Oakland (Griffin) 16.367
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-160); Under

Game 967-968: Boston at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Dempster) 14.940; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 14.699
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+105); Over

Game 969-970: Cleveland at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Myers) 14.356; Toronto (Buehrle) 15.479
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-160); Under

Game 971-972: LA Angels at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Blanton) 14.736; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.202
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); Under

Bryan LeonardFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indians / Blue Jays Over 9FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Indians and Jays will wrap up a three-game set with Brett Myers against Mark Buehrle. Brett Myers makes his return to the starting rotation after spending all of 2011 as a reliever and he had some issues with the transition in Spring Training. Myers repeatedly tired in the 4th and 5th inning of his starts and a starter leaving the game early means that the manager has to use the less attractive options out of the bullpen to preserve his more reliable arms for the later innings. Myers has posted an above average ground ball rate throughout his career, which could be harmful to him both on turf and with the Indians' mediocre infield defense.
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Mark Buehrle could find out that pitching on turf for all of your home games is not the most fun thing for a pitcher. The crafty southpaw makes his return to the American League with a home start in Toronto, where he has allowed 22 runs and 37 hits in six starts. On turf for his career, Buehrle has a 4.37 ERA. Unlike last season, when the Indians struggled mightily against left handed pitching, they should be much better this season. They added switch hitter Nick Swisher, right handed power bat Mark Reynolds, Drew Stubbs, who hits lefties quite well, and Mike Aviles, who is an above average hitter against southpaws. Carlos Santana hits 45 average points better against lefties and has an OPS that is 70 points higher.
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With Myers's fatigue issues, Buehrle's struggles on turf, and two offenses that match up pretty well against these two starters, this game should go over the total.

Bob HarveyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Iowa / Baylor Over 141½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Iowa Hawkeyes have been a sports bettor's dream this season going 24-9 ATS, including a current 10-0 ATS run. They opened as1-point favorites against Baylor in the NIT final at Madison Square Garden on Thursday and the total opened at 141.
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Iowa has primarily used stifling defense to build up bankrolls. They held opponents in the NIT to 40.9 percent shooting from the field and 34.7 percent shooting from behind the arc. The Hawkeyes are 15th in the country in opponent field goal percentage and ninth in opponent three point percentage on the season.
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One Hawkeye has made huge offensive gains in his game also - junior combo guard Devyn Marble has averaged 24.3 points during the NIT, up from his season average of 15.2.

Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Mets -137FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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No this is not a misprint, I am saying stay on the Mets on the same odds as yesterday. Facing a lefthander didn't phase the lefthanded power in the New York lineup and the much traveled Eric Stults is hardly an imposing figure. New York again has an advantage on the hill with Dillon Gee, who is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA against San Diego lifetime. The Mets can complete an unexpected series sweep to start the season. It is an afternoon game so you can reinvest your winnings later in the day. Perhaps on the Blue Jays getting their first win.

Freddy WillsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Angels +113FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The time off yesterday was definitely needed. We will start with a value play early with the Angels as under dogs. On paper it appears the Reds have the advantage of playing the early game on the east coast with the better pitcher in Arroyo. However, I’m going off raw stats and value here and not public’s or the media’s perception. First of all you have to know the Reds were 23rd vs. RHP in OPS a year ago while the Angels were 5th. The Reds lost Ryan Ludwick, one of their best hitters on day 1 which impacted their line up significantly while the Angels added Josh Hamilton who will only improve their OPS vs. RHP this year.
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Bronson Arroyo will take the mound for the Reds and he’s a durable pitcher and will be sure to make 33 starts, but in my opinion he pitched over his head quite a bit last year despite his 3.74 ERA he seemed quite a bit lucky only allowing 20 HR, 46 previous year. Arroyo had a 4.19 xFIP which is more indicative of his true ERA and he has struggled big time in interleague play of late and Albert Pujols is quite familiar with him and has 4 HR and a .900 OPS.
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Joe Blanton on the other side has a ton of value not only in this season but moving forward. He’s got the 4th best K/BB ratio at 5.7 last year and his Xfip is 3.39. His biggest issue is giving up HR, but the ball is not going to be carrying early in the season with the cold weather. I’m not suggesting he won’t give up a lot of HR’s again this year, but in opportunities when home runs are not the norm (early season cold weather) we have to take full advantage of Blanton’s abilities which is throwing strikes and getting batters to miss.
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Both pitchers will rely on not giving up HR’s and I think they will both be successful today so that turns the game into small ball and Blanton ranked 22nd best in contract rate while Arroyo was 8th worst allowing 85% of his pitches to be hit. He gave up 30 hits and a .333 average in sprint training and now he goes up against a talented line up. I expect him to have runners on base all day long. Can he win? Absolutely, but I’ll fade a pitcher as a favorite that will put more guys on base than his opponent.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indians / Blue Jays Over 9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game looks like a good spot for a higher scoring game. Both Pitchers are of mediocre spring trainings and have been hit pretty good vs their opponents tonight. B. Myers makes the start for Cleveland and his spring was particularly miserable as he pitched to a 9.00 era allowing 21 earned runs in 21 innings and opposing hitter batted .383 against him. In his lone start here he lost and allowed 7 runs in 6+ innings good for a 6.75 era. Tonight he will take on M. Buehrle who is making his regular season debut for the Jays. Buehrle has allowed 19 earned runs in 29 innings vs Cleveland in home starts and allowed 13 earned runs in 19 innings in 2 starts vs the Indians last season. His spring was very average as he allowed 9 earned runs in 18 innings and allowed a .307 batting average against. Both teams struggled at the plate last night, look for this one to go over the total.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Mariners at Oakland AthleticsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Seattle MarinersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Finale of a four-game season opening series between the Mariners and A's. Seattle won the first two with shutdown efforts from Hernandez and Iwakuma, while the A's got on the board with the Wednesday night win. The wrapup clash is an afternoon contest with rookie Brandon Maurer making his debut for the Mariners. Maurer has come on like gangbusters since finally getting healthy and was impressive in the minors last year. But he was not projected to be with the big club this season, until he lit it up in spring training and simply forced his way into the rotation. I have always liked backing debuting pitchers, as they often have an advantage not having been seen by thee hitters. The fact Maurer was sizzling in the spring games sure doesn't hurt. AJ Griffin was a surprise in his own right last year for the A's, and he proved to be unbeatable at home. Nevertheless, I like the idea of backing the rookie, and I like the substantial underdog odds even more. Recommend taking the plus money with the Mariners today.

Jim Feist

Marlins at Nationals
Pick: Under

Miami couldn't muster any runs in the opener, a 2-0 loss, which isn't a huge surprise as Washington is a huge park, great for pitchers. At least the go with a good arm in Wade LeBlanc, a fly ball pitcher who is well suited for a big park like this. LeBlanc posted a 3.67 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 68.2 innings pitched (nine starts) last season for the Marlins. The under is 3-1-2 in the Marlins last 6 games as a road underdog. Washington goes with Jordan Zimmermann, two years removed from Tommy John surgery, and last season in 19 of his first 21 games it resulted in quality starts with a 2.28 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He walked only 2 Marlins in 17 innings against them last season. The under is 5-2 in the Nationals last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Play the Marlins/Nationals under the total.

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas Mavericks at Denver NuggetsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Denver NuggetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Denver Nuggets are incredibly dominant at home, having lost just 3 games at the Pepsi Center all season. They host the Mavs, who have lost 2 of their last 3 games (0-3 ATS). Denver, who is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games, won the only other meeting this season vs. Dallas, a 106-85 road victory. Play Denver.

Andy IskoeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Phillies / Braves Under 7 5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After a pair of OVERs to open the season this pitching matchup sets up nicely for a pitching duel and a low scoring final. Young Kris Medlen, a mid season call up in 2012, was sensational for the Braves who were a perfect 12-0 in Medlen's dozen starts. In 84 innings as a starter, Medlen posted a stellar 0.80 WHIP with 0.97 ERA, averaging7.0 innings per start. 8 of his starts stayed UNDER the Total with just 3 OVERs and a PUSH. Veteran Cliff Lee may have been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball in 2012. The Phils were just 12-18 in his 30 starts despite Lee's 1.11 WHIP and 3.15 ERA while averaging 7.0 innings per start. In 17 of his 30 starts Lee lasted 6 or more innings while allowing 2 earned runs or less. The Phils gave Lee an average of just 3.6 runs per game of support, one of the lowest levels for pitchers who made at least 25 start. Both of his starts against Atlanta stayed UNDER the Total. Medlen did not make a start against the Phillies last season. It's easier to make a case that if both starters perform at a level similar to how they performed much of last season this could be a 2-0 or 3-1 final.

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Cubs at PittsburghFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Chicago Cubs +130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chicago Cubs have split the first two games with Pittsburgh. Neither team has displayed much offense, as there have been just 7 total runs scored in their two games. Travis Wood should at the very least keep the Cubs in this one, as his last outing vs. the Pirates showed that he limited them to just one hit in a blowout win. Wood finished strong a year ago, and looks like a pitcher that is going to be a keeper. The same can't be said for McDonald who had all sorts of problems with this Cubs lineup a year ago, as he was 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA, dropping all of his last six starts a year ago as a favorite. Take Chicago.

Steve MerrilFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle vs. OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brandon Maurer will be making his Major League debut for Seattle on Thursday as the Mariners take on the Athletics. Maurer had a stellar Spring allowing just 4 runs in 24 innings striking out 25 while walking seven. It's a bit of a concern that he allowed almost a hit an inning, but he's been able to get around it. Keith Law said that Maurer has a “plus slider, with excellent tilt.” He adds that the pitcher has a changeup and curveball although that pitch needs a bit of work. Maurer gets a good lineup to start out with as Oakland has struggled offensively to start out the season. A.J. Griffin opposes Maurer and he's enjoyed facing the Mariners beating them in two starts last season. Overall, Griffin gave up 2 runs and 10 hits striking out 11 while walking three. Griffin has scuffled a bit in the Spring, but he struck out 14 while walking only two in his last start. These two pitchers should be able to hold down the weak offenses so we’ll recommend playing this game Under the total.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Jersey vs. BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams played on January 29th, and Boston held on for the 2-1 win at home. However, three of these teams last five in the series have gone over the posted number, and I'm fully expecting tonight's contest to follow the trend. The Devils are 15-12-9 overall, but just 5-6-7 on the road. They're coming off a listless 3-1 setback to the Islanders on Monday. There's no question that New Jersey will be playing with desperation tonight as it looks to break out of its four-game slide. Boston is 23-8-4 overall, and 12-2-2 at home. The Bruins have won two straight, most recently a 3-2 victory over Ottawa on Tuesday. The oft-criticized Boston offense gets a big boost with Jaromir Jagr making his debut tonight. The Bruins thought they had first landed Jarome Iginla, but when that deal eventually fell through, they quickly grabbed Jagr. And in case you didn't know, the 41-year-old left Dallas as the leading goal (14) and points (26) earner. And despite the perceived offensive inefficiencies of Boston, I believe there is some room to read between the lines, as the Bruins did fire 50 shots on net in the win over the Sens (also note that they allowed a brutal 47 shots against them). The Devils acquired forward Steve Sullivan to bolster their offense; the veteran had five goals and seven assists in 33 games for the Coyotes. And New Jersey is going to have to muster all the offense it can vs. the Bruins today, as starting goaltender Martin Brodeur has a 3.38 GAA in dropping his last seven vs. them. I believe the table is set for a high-scoring affair. What do you think?

Dave EsslerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds -115FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Still not ready to unload yet, so do as you will. I see everyone and their brother on the Angels, which just makes this more playable, IMO. Arroyo is MUCH tougher on right handed hitters, so if he gets by Josh he should be fine. Blanton had one decent year (last year) but otherwise gives it up. Now he faces a team that's seen plenty of him as opposed to the Angels not seeing Arroyo. Angels still without a DH and Arroyo is a better hitting pitcher. Reds at home, after the emotional comeback last night, at this price, is too much to pass up. If their bullpen hold up (Marshall still hasn't pitched) then they should be fine.