Steve JanusFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Mariners +145FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mariners have taken two of three against the A's in this four game series and are showing some great value as a pretty big underdog. Seattle will send out youngster Brandon Maurer, who will be making his big league debut. Maurer was dominant in spring training. He went 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA over seven games, while striking out 25 batters in 24 innings. Oakland will counter with A.J. Griffin, who went 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA over 15 starts last year. However, Griffin struggled late with a 7.27 ERA in his last four starts of 2012 and has not looked good in spring ball, going just 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA in five starts. This isn't one of my strongest plays in the MLB today, but there's certainly enough value here that it's worth a small wager.
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Toronto Blue Jays -157FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After losing two in a row at home to start the year, the Jays will look to avoid an embarrassing third straight loss to Cleveland here on Thursday. The Jays wasted a fantastic effort from Brandon Morrow yesterday, he went six strong innings allowing just one run on six hits. Many of those hits were broken bat bloopers, or little choppers that the defense failed to make a play on.
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Toronto's offense hasn't really come alive yet, but after a quiet night in the home opener, the Blue Jays bats showed signs of life on Wednesday. Jose Bautista went deep for his first home run of the season, tying the game at 2-2 in the bottom of the ninth.
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Toronto will send veteran Mark Buehrle to the mount tonight, making his first start in a Blue Jays uniform. Buehrle struggled at times in 2012, but he finished strong, going 4-2 in his last eight starts.
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The Tribe will hand the ball to Brett Myers, who is making a comeback as a starter, after working out of the bullpen in Houston last year. He didn't good this spring, as reported by the media in Cleveland: he's allowed seven runs on 14 hits in just 7.2 innings, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. (Sat Mar 16)
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Jose Reyes has seen plenty of Myers, and he's had success against the right-hander. He's hit .319 with five extra-base hits and a home run in 47 career at bats versus Myers. Jose Bautista has also had success in limited at bats, going 3-fo-7 with a home run.
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I think we will see Toronto come alive with the bats at the Roger's Center tonight, out-scoring the Indians in a slugfest.
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N.Y. METS -½ -104 over San DiegoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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(1st 5 innings). The Mets are 2-0 and have scored 19 times in their two wins. When a team gets off to such a hot start at the plate they can’t wait to get back in the batter’s box and that applies here. By contrast, the Padres have scored six times and have just 10 hits in the two games so far. Now the Padres will have to face Dillon Gee, a guy we’re projecting to have a breakout season. Gee’s breakout season, skills-wise, ended in July last season by a blood clot in his shoulder. Gee’s struggles vs. LHB are likely anomalous and his inflated hr/f cost him ERA. However, his dominanace/disaster splits shows how good he was with nary a bad start. With that elite command and ground-ball rates, Gee is precisely the reason we buy skills and not stats. Gee has high profit potential and we’re on it.
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Eric Stults in the anti-Gee. Stults went 8-3 with a 2.91 in 99 IP for the White Sox and Padres combined last year. A late bloomer? Not exactly, says his 4.42 xERA. Stults has marginal command and he benefited from favorable hit and strand rate percentages. Groundball/fly-ball rates are also marginal (40%/36%). Stult’s line-drive rate of 26% was among the worst in the business last season. This guy has been pure luck and over time, in this league, luck never holds up. Stults is coming off a spring in which he posted a 5.87 ERA and he virtually has little chance of improving that mark here. Look for the Mets to tee off again today.
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Detroit -½ +101 over MINNESOTAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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(1st 5 innings). Mike Pelfrey’s 2012 season ended with Tommy John surgery on May 1. He’s now ready to return to the big leagues...or is he? Tiny 2012 sample aside, there is little redeeming value in this skill set. TJS has been known to add a few MPH to pitchers but there's likely more help needed here. Three years of double-digit wins between 2008-2010 mean nothing but that xERA history sure does. To expect anything lower than a high-fours ERA from Pelfrey would be a mistake. Pelfrey's groundballs are headed in the wrong direction. Add in a hr/9 that doubled itself over the past couple of years and we have two big warning signs. Pelfrey is incapable of getting himself out of trouble on his own—just ask his strikeout rate. This past spring, Pelfrey threw 18 innings and allowed 28 hits and 13 runs for an ERA of 6.38. The Twins are thin in starting pitching and that’s the only reason he’s getting a shot. It won’t last for long.
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Rick Porcello could be in for a big year. He added 1.8 mph to his fastball in 2012 and reports are that he’s added another 1 MPH this year. His gains were hidden due to an unlucky 35% hit rate. The porous Detroit infield won't help his hit% in its quest for regression, but his velocity spike and steady strikeout rate increase during the past two seasons mean that he's still on a growth curve. Porcello has been working on refining his slider. Doing so would give him the strikeout pitch he needs and if the spring is any indication, it’s working just fine. Porcello went 4-1 in Grapefruit League play, tossing 24 innings and allowing just 21 hits and eight earned runs for an ERA of 3.00. More notably, Porcello didn’t walk a single batter the entire spring but struck out 21 hitters. Porcello may finally consolidate his elite skill flashes into a huge season. He’s on our radar and it’s likely to pay off here against this opposing stiff.
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Baltimore +103 over TAMPA BAYFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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(1st 5 innings). Because our selections are based largely on the starters, we’re going to play all games in the first five innings unless otherwise stated. The Orioles got off to a 4-0 lead yesterday before the pen blew up and they eventually lost 8-7 to run their record to 1-1. In its first two games, Baltimore did some nice damage against David Price and Jeremy Hellickson and things get much easier here against Roberto Hernandez. Identity fraud is a red herring for former Fausto Carmona's real issue: his skills are missing in action. Hernandez has never been able to consistently throw strikes and without it, odds of another sub-4.00 ERA, like he had in 2010, are remote. Hernandez pitched just 14.1 innings last season and struck out a lousy two batters. This past spring he was worked extensively with 27 spring frames but he still allowed 27 hits and 16 earned runs for an ERA of 5.33. Given hard-to-repeat mechanics and poor skills, Hernandez will not last in the rotation and now is the time to take advantage.
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Miguel Gonzalez went 9-4 with a 3.25 ERA in 105 IP with the O’s last year. This late bloomer made MLB debut and he thrived in pennant race but his skills don’t fully support his results. That said, unlike Hernandez, Gonzalez has viable skills for a big league starter with close to league average in control, strikeout rate and command. At age 29, the perseverance Gonzalez has showed to get to the big leagues is commendable and he has demonstrated that he has enough talent to stick in the Oriole rotation. He has been pitching over his head to this point and there is some regression coming down the road but that’s something we can fade at a later date. Against the Rays and opposing Hernandez we like the Orioles chances of getting to the front and staying there for the first five frames.
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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta/ Philadelphia Under 7: Well the first two games in this series have been high scoring, but I see this one going the other. Last year the Phils gave Lee some poor run support and as a result he posted a 6-9 record, despite a 3.16 ERA. Cliff did have a bit of a sluggish spring, but he does have a 2.95 ERA in 34 starts during the first month of the year, plus in 10 career starts he has a 3.08 ERA vs the Braves. 5 of his last 6 starts vs the Braves have put up 6 or less runs, including both meetings last year. As for Kris Medlen, he was just dominant last year. Kris started the year in the pen, but then he was made a starter and went an amazing 9-0 with an 0.97 ERA in 12 starts for them last year. In his 7 home starts last year he allowed just 8 TOTAL runs, with those games putting up just 6.5 rpg. The Philadelphia offense is better than last year because it's healthier, but I just don't see them scoring much off of Medlen in this one. Both starters had rough springs, but I see them both getting their acts together for this one, which will keep the scoring down.
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Detroit/ Minnesota Over 8.5: Last night just 5 runs were scored, bur with the wind blowing out and not a great pitching matchup on the mound i will loo for this one to be much higher scoring. Mike Pelfrey is making his first start for the Twins and he is off a bad spring, in which he posted a 6.38 ERA in 6 starts. He has one career start vs the Tigers and allowed 4 ER's on 8 hits in just 4.2 innings of work in that start. We also note that current tiger hitters have a .456 average vs him in 68 AB's, plus Mike has a 5.28 ERA in 44 career day starts. Rick Porcello is known as a slow starter as he has a 6.13 ERA in 18 career starts during the first month of the season, plus he has a 4.50 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the. Twins. Mike Pelfrey pitched just 3 games last year and was injured the rest and after his spring It doesn't look like he is right at all. Couple that with the fact that Rick is a very slow starter and we have two good offenses with the win blowing out and this one should at least hit 10 runs.
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TORONTO -1.5 (+120) over Cleveland: Toronto was to be one of the most improved teams in the league, but they have started out 0-2 so far. Today they start to turn it around. Interesting stats for this one. Mak Buehrle is back in the American league after a year with the Marlins and he has struggled with Cleveland, going 15-17 with a 4.77 ERA vs them, but he has won 3 of his last 5 vs the Tribe, despite a 5.52 ERA. Now Mark is just 1-4 in this park, but with a solid 2.91 ERA and I really expect him to pitch that well in his first game for his new team. Brett Myers is back in the starters role, after a few years as a reliever and if spring is any indication, he may be back in the relievers role by the All-Star break. In 6 starts this spring he was 2-3 with a 9.00 ERA, giving up 3 HR's, 36 hits and 8 walks in just 21 innings of work. The Jays offense has been slow out the gate but Current Jays hitters have hit .285 off of Brett, including Jose Reyes, who has .319 average in 48 AB's vs him. The Jays offense should finally awaken in this one, winning by at least 3 runs.
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Baltimore Orioles +117FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Orioles and Rays have split their first two games of the series in Tampa Bay, with Baltimore winning the first 7-4 and the Rays winning with a walk off in the bottom of the ninth 8-7 yesterday. The Orioles will go with Miguel Gonzalez who had a great rookie season going 9-4 with a 3.25 ERA, .235 OBA, and 1.21 WHIP over his 15 starts and 18 total appearances. On the road he was 6-2 with a 2.74 ERA last season. Take note that Gonzalez made four starts against the Rays last season with a rough outing in the first and then 3 very solid outings, which included throwing 13.1 scoreless innings at Tropicana Field where he allowed just 4 hits in total. The Rays will send Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona) to the mound today. Last year with Cleveland he had just 3 starts and went 0-3 with a 7.53 ERA over those starts. In 2011 he had a rough season with a 7-15 record, 5.25 ERA, .276 OBA, and 1.40 WHIP over 32 starts. He has only really had two good seasons in his roughly 6 years in the majors. Baltimore has won 7 of their last 10 meetings with Tampa Bay, the Orioles are 7-3 in Gonzalez's last 10 road starts and 4-1 in his last 5 starts overall. With Gonzalez on the mound I like the underdog price we are getting on Baltimore and we will take them for 2 units.
Brett Atkins
I'm taking the Seattle Mariners tonight over the Oakland Athletics, and I want you listing one pitcher only in this game, and that is Brandon Maurer, who makes his Major League debut.
The towering, right-handed, 22-year-old etched his way into the Mariners rotation after an excellent spring. The Orange County, California-native was the Southern League Pitcher of the Year for Double-A Jackson last season. In 24 AA starts last season, Maurer posted a respectable 3.20 ERA, striking out 117 while walking 48.
As an aggressive pitcher who's shown a good ability to throw his 94 mile-per-hour heater to either side of the plate, I don't think he'll be showing any signs of tentativeness in this one, and will be eager to go after a shaky Athletics lineup that was cold the first two games of the season, until coming alive last night for a 6-2 win. Maurer will mix in a plus-slider and a good curve as needed to neutrazlize the A's.
But all that stuff is the same thing the A's know. Now it's a matter of seeing him live for the first time on a baseball field - something no team has done.
That's what makes this play sexy.
3♦ SEATTLE
Brad Wilton
Your comp play winner for Thursday comes in the Iowa-Baylor NIT Championship Game, as I play the Hawkeyes and the Bears to hold Under the total.
This total seems pretty darn high when you consider Iowa just clamped down on Maryland Tuesday night, holding them to 60 points in a game that played Under the total. That puts the Hawkeyes at 8-4 Under the price in their last dozen contests.
Baylor is also off an Under on Tuesday in the semis against BYU, as the Bears have held low in their last pair of NIT games, and 5 of their last 9 games overall.
If Iowa wants to win this game, they will need to slow Baylor down and make this a half-court game. Fran McCaffery's team was able to do that to Maryland, look for them to slow down the Bears here on Thursday and keep this total from going Over.
Iowa-Baylor to hold Under on Thursday.
4♦ IOWA-BAYLOR UNDER
Jeff Benton
Freebie for Thursday is the Boston Red Sox to get the broom out versus the New York Yankees in the finale of this opening series in the Bronx.
Last night Hiroki Kuroda last just over an inning before leaving with the contusion on his pitching hand. Just add him to the growing list of injured pinstripers, as Kuroda joins Hughes from the pitching staff as the "walking wounded". Throw in Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Curtis Granderson, and this Yankees lineup is just not the same one that can slug its way onto the scoreboard.
That being the case, going to have to back the BoSox as they go for the sweep behind Ryan Dempster. Maybe Dempster doesn't work a shutout, but I just don't see the Yanks getting more than 2 or 3 runs off of him.
On the other hand, not sure what we are going to get from the aged Andy Pettitte? How many innings can he possibly last at his advanced age, 5, 6?
Too many question marks surrounding the Yankees, have to go with the Red Sox to leave the Bronx at 3-0.
2♦ BOSTON
Craig Davis
While I'm fully aware of what's happening in the NBA with the officiating crews obviously favoring the Lakers to ensure they get to the playoffs, I'm not sure even the refs could have saved the Mavs last night.
With golden opportunity to pull within one game of first place in the Western Conference playoff race, Dallas fell flat on their faces and dropped a 20-point decision and pretty much assured themselves of NOT making the post-season.
And to make matters worse, they now have to go to Denver where the home team has dropped just three of 36 overall contests --- the best in the NBA by far. They are simply unbeatable at home.
In fact, last night they visited the team with the 4th best home record in the league, the Utah Jazz, and completely dismantled them to the tun of a 113-96 setback... and this from a Jazz team that is in a dogfight with the Lakers for the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs.
Denver and Dallas are two of the better ATS teams in the league, but Denver is better just like they are better at home than any other team in the league.
After watching Dallas piss down their leg two nights ago in Los Angeles, how am I expected to think they'll win a much tougher road game?
Take Denver as your free play of the day.
4♦ DENVER
Chris Jordan
I had the Nationals yesterday as a 100♦ release - my first Run Line Punisher of the season - and I can't be happier to see the team I've bet to win the World Series looking strong on both ends of the spectrum.
And pardon me while I gloat with Vegas pride over the fact Bryce Harper stole the headlines on Opening Day. And got another hit last night in the Nationals' 3-0 win.
Yes, there's quite the excitement stirring in a town starving for a sports-success story. Lord knows our nation's capital dying for something positive knowing it has four more years of a Democrat in office.
Today I fully expect the Nationals to finish up the series with another win, and roll to huge win with Jordan Zimmerman on the slab, facing Miami's Wade LeBlanc. Harper, Jayson Werth and the rest of the boys will take care of the offensive end of things, it's Zimmerman I'm most intrigued about.
Washington's northpaw comes in after his best season, going 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA in 32 starts. And reports out of spring are that he is out to improve his numbers and contribute in the No. 3 slot. His strength is his durability, and there's no doubt with the lineup he has behind him, he'll reach his goal of 200 innings.
LeBlanc, meanwhile, is the lone southpaw in the Miami rotation, and made only nine starts last season. He might have been effective out of the bullpen, and yes he threw four relief appearances and tossed five shutout innings against these Nationals, but this is a whole new year. And with Miami's winter clearance sale, I don't think it's fair to expect him to do anything special in his first start of the season. Especially against the National League favorites to win the pennant.
Lay the run line in this one, as the Nationals will roll.
3♦ WASHINGTON RUN LINE
Matt Rivers
Thursday night free play is on the Mavericks-Nuggets to go Over the total at the Pepsi Center.
Dallas just played Under the total on Tuesday night at the Lakers, but the Mavericks have been Over the total in 6 of their last 8 games overall.
As for Denver, they were on court last night in Utah, as the went Over the total for the first time in their last 6 games.
The Over is 4-2-1 the past 7 series meetings, and 4 of the last 5 played between the teams in the Mile High City have eclipsed the posted price.
Go with the Over in this Dallas-Denver West Conference clash from the Pepsi Center tonight.
1* DALLAS-DENVER OVER
Robert Ferringo
Miami / Washington Over 7.5
This is my projected total for this game, although I have a feeling it might creep up to 8.0 depending on how Wednesday's game goes. It's going to be tough to squeeze out 'over' bets with the Marlins this year because their lineup is pathetic. But I think that this will be a decent spot to take a stab at some runs. Miami will have seen Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez in the first two games and, without knowing Wednesday's results, I'm sure they have done next to nothing. But the Fish will get a little bit of a break from Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman had a 5.28 ERA this spring and gave up 34 hits and nine walks in just 29 innings. Teams were hitting him pretty hard and I don't know that he is in peak form. His counterpart is Wade LeBlanc, a retread lefty over from San Diego. LeBlanc has a career 5.75 road ERA and won't benefit from the cozy dimensions of San Diego's Petco Park any more. LeBlanc had a 4.74 ERA this spring and opponents hit .274 off him. I think after two lower scoring games we will see both offenses stretch out here. The weather is supposed to be a little warmer and I think both lineups will get their cuts in. The 'over' is 5-1 in the last six meetings and I think that we will see enough offense here - particularly from the Nationals to get this one 'over'.
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NY Yankees (-120) over BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It seems that over the past decade that whenever things are going bad for the Yankees Andy Pettite is there to make things right and get them back on track. New York has dropped the first two games to Boston at home and have not had a lead in the series. Ryan Dempster will be making his first appearance for Boston after signing a two year deal in the off season. Dempster has struggled against New York and is 0-4 with a 7.62 ERA in 5 career starts against them. Even though Dempster won't be facing the usual Bronx Bombers I think he gets touched up enough for the Yankees to avoid the sweep.
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Chicago at BrooklynFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Chicago +5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Winning in the NBA on the road is never easy, but the Chicago Bulls have done a great job this season away from the United Center. They remain as only one of eight NBA teams above the .500 mak on the road. Brooklyn is a tired team that is coming off of eight straight road games. They played last night in Cleveland, so they are not likely to be sharp for this one. The Bulls have covered five straight vs. the NBA Atlantic, and overall have covered their last four against a winning team. The Nets have struggled against teams with a winning road record at home, where they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six. Take the dog here, and go with Chicago.
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San Antonio at Oklahoma CityFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Huge matchup tonight with the top two teams in the Western Conference meeting up in Oklahoma City. The Thunder trail the Spurs by 1.5 games in the standings, but are a huge 8-point home favorite tonight. We do like the Thunder to win this game outright, however, we can't ignore the tremendous line value with the visiting Spurs and we'll grab those generous points with San Antonio here. Spurs ended a short two-game losing skid with a 14-point win and cover against Orlando last night, and they are more than capable of keeping close to the Thunder even on the road. San Antonio beat Oklahoma City by a comfortable 12-point margin less than a month ago on their home court, and while Oklahoma City won big in the last game played here, they were 27-30 from the free throw line which put that game out of reach. Spurs defense has held their last three foes to final scores of 88, 92, and 84 points, and with this game likely being played in a playoff-like atmosphere, we look for both defenses to step up their game. Thunder win this game outright, but not by much!
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Iowa at BaylorFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: BaylorFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We gave out Baylor as a premium selection Tuesday night in their semifinals win against BYU, and we'll back them here to finish the job against Iowa. This is a classic offense vs. defense matchup, with Baylor preferring to run up and down the court and Iowa preferring to play a slower, half-court game. Both of these teams were far better at home than on the road - even more than the average home/road difference throughout College Basketball, however we do give the Bears a slight edge here. Iowa is very reliant on their outside shooting, which always has potential to produce to extended dry spells. And if Baylor is able to jump out to an early lead, then Iowa might be forced to speed up more than their are comfortable with and play right into Baylor's preferred up-tempo game pace. Hawkeyes rolled past Maryland thanks almost entirely to the Terps 17 turnovers, but this Baylor team is very good at holding on to the ball. In fact, they have committed just 12 turnovers combined in their last two games and only average 12 per game on the season. Not enough offensive firepower for Iowa tonight, and they battle hard but fade away late.