Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday April, 5

Sam Martin

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Miami Marlins

Marlins were stifled by Kyle Lohse and the Cardinals last night, but we'll back them here and look for big things this season from Mark Buehrle. The former White Sox ace makes his debut for the Fish this afternoon, and we love backing proven AL pitchers now pitching in a friendlier pitching atmosphere of the National League. This line is much higher than it should be is is likely based on Miami's offensive woes last night on national television, but they should have the opening-day jitters out of their system and we expect their offense to look much different than it did last night. Great return is a plus!

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Sacramento Kings

When the Kings host the Clippers in the first of back-to-back games in a Pacific Division showdown Thursday night Sacramento will take the court knowing they are 4-0 ATS at home as dogs off a previous home loss when playing with same season revenge. Meanwhile the Clippers enter off last tonight's revenge battle against their cross town rival Lakers knowing they are 4-11 ATS the last 15 visits to Sacramento when the Kings are playing off a SU and ATS loss. With that expect a crowning achievement from the Kings tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Sacramento.

Hollywood Sports

Sharks at Kings
Play: Over

Los Angeles (40-27-5-8) has won three of their last four games after their 2-0 win over Edmonton on Monday. The Kings still cling to a 2-point lead over Phoenix in the Pacific Division with these Sharks in third place and 3-points behind Los Angeles. Expect a higher-scoring game in this one with San Jose desperate to earn two points against the division leader. The Kings have seen the Over go 6-1-1 in their last 8 games following a win. Los Angeles has also seen the Over go 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after allowing two goals or less in their last game. Additionally, the Over is 6-2-1 in the Kings' last 9 games against teams with a winning record. San Jose (41-29-5-5) has won two games in a row after their 5-2 win at Dallas. The Over is 4-1-2 in the Sharks' last 7 games following a win. And while Los Angeles is 22-14-0-4 on their home ice this season, San Jose has seen the Over go 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Take the Over in this one.

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

There is a whole bunch of new things going on in Los Angeles but one of those should not be a change in domination over the Padres. The Dodgers won 13 of the 18 meetings last season and that included winning all three of the series that took place in San Diego. Los Angeles will have a tough time competing in the National League West with the Diamondbacks and Giants it got a break in the schedule with seven of its first 10 games coming against the Padres with the other three being against Pittsburgh. It is expected to be a long season in San Diego after a 71-91 record a season ago with not much improvements heading into this year. The Padres had only 35 home wins last year which was the fifth fewest in all of baseball so there is certainly not much of an edge anymore at Petco Park. San Diego finished with the lowest batting average in the National League while its 593 runs scored were the second fewest in the league. Don't expect much offensive output tonight. The Dodgers send ace Clayton Kershaw to the hill and he is coming off an outstanding 2011 campaign. He went 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 33 starts and while his April was his worst month, he comes into this season with a much better outlook. Facing the Padres to start is a plus as he has dominated them the last two years with a 1.93 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over six starts where he went 5-1. He has a run of seven consecutive quality outings against San Diego. San Diego goes with newly acquired Edinson Volquez who came over from Cincinnati after another tough season with the Reds. He posted a 5.71 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 20 starts and he has been mediocre at best since an exceptional 2008 season. A new environment may help but he is still struggling with his command as he issued 11 walks in 20.2 innings during spring training. He hasn't faced the Dodgers since 2008 which is an advantage but the run support behind him will be minimal.

Frank Jordan

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

This is a great instate rivalry, but of late it hasn't had the same flair as Pittsburgh hasn't had a winning season since Bonds left. They playing better of late and keeping their young talent. However in this one they are still facing Roy Halladay and even with a bang up offensive line up he only needs a run or two of support to win. Look for the Phillies to win behind their ace. Play Philadelphia

Ben Burns

Mighty Ducks @ Oilers
PICK: Over 5.5

Year after year, Ben Burns simply OWNS April baseball. Last season, he started ON FIRE & continued to DOMINATE all season long. When the smoke cleared, he closed out the season on a PERFECT 3-0 RUN & having gone a SIMPLY AWESOME 80-39 his L119, excluding four "pushes." His first play of 2012 goes EARLY. Do NOT sleep in!

With some fairly heavy juice now attached to the "under 5.5," we're getting a positive (underdog) price on the "over 5.5." As I post this, its +116 at Pinnacle. Given the situation, I feel that's providing us with fairly solid value. (*Note that I'd like the play more and be prepared to pay the extra juice, if the line was available at five, rather than 5.5.)

Both teams are "playing out the string," as neither will be going to the playoffs this season. This will be Edmonton's final home game of the season. The Oilers will close out their season at Vancouver on Saturday. They were blanked 2-0 in their most recent game (at LA, vs a stingy Kings team on Monday) and should be motivated to score some goals one last time in front of the home fans. Anaheim should represent an ideal opponent for that.

The Ducks will close out their season at Calgary on Saturday. They're off a 5-4 loss last time out, A fairly stingy team earlier in the season, that was the Ducks' fourth straight road game in which they allowed a minimum of three goals.

These teams did just play a 2-1 game at Anaheim recently. That doesn't mean we need to expect another low-scoring game here though; their previous meeting resulted in a 4-2 final.

While both clubs were profitable "under" teams this season, those numbers were compiled when the games mattered. With that no longer the case, I won't be surprised when the 'over' improves to 10-6-2 when the Oilers were off a game in which they scored one or less. Consider the Over 5.5.

Sean Murphy

New Jersey Devils @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings are a veteran team that realizes the importance of heading into the playoffs on a high note. Perhaps that rings true this season more than any other, as they had been limping down the stretch.

Lately, we've seen the Wings step up their game, going 4-2 over their last six contests, including a thrilling come-from-behind shootout win in St. Louis last night. That victory should give them plenty of momentum entering Thursday's showdown with the Devils.

New Jersey should certainly pique Detroit's interest, as the Devils have won four games in a row. I'm not sure the Devils are all that intersted in keeping that streak going tonight, however, as they're in danger of climbing into fifth spot in the East, which would result in a first round matchup with the Penguins rather than the third-seeded Panthers. Yes, the NHL's wacky seeding rules rear their ugly head again.

Detroit has been quite simply dominant here at the Joe this season, going 31-8 SU. After a bit of a rough stretch, the Wings seem to have their mojo back in this building, having won three of their last four. They'll close out the regular season with a home date against the Blackhawks on Saturday.

The Wings swept this series last season, going 2-0, outscoring the Devils by a combined 7-2 margin. Look for them to display a significant edge as far as energy, and motivation goes tonight.

Dave Cokin

New York Knicks vs Orlando Magic
Pick: Orlando Magic

Both the Knicks and Magic are off bad losses. I would say Orlando is more likely to bounce back quickly. The thought here is that the Knicks injury situation is starting to become a real issue and they could struggle down the stretch. I'll back Orlando here.

Jim Feist

Knicks vs Magic
Pick: Over

New York is not a strong defensive team but they can still push the basketball uptempo even without Lin and Amare: The over is 9-0 in Knicks last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Orlando has plenty of offensive punch both inside and out, especially at home where the over is 13-5-2 in the Magic's last 20 home games. And when these teams meet, the over is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings, including a perfect 4-0 over in the last 4 meetings in Orlando. Play the Knicks/Magic Over the total.

EZWINNERS

Philadelphia Phillies -$190

The Pirates picked up Erik Bedard in the off season and he get the ball for Pittsburgh on opening day, but his spring numbers were not very good. In nineteen innings of work this spring, Bedard was 0-2 with an ERA of 5.03 and his margin for error in this game will most likely be very small. The Phillies send ace Roy Halliday to the mound and even though Halliday didn't have a great spring himself, I expect him to settle in nicely against a Pirates team that only has one player that has a career batting average better than .167 against him. Play on Philadelphia.

MLB Predictions

Toronto Blue Jays -118

Being from Canada there is a lot of hype north of the border for this Toronto Blue Jays team. Time will tell whether this Blue Jays team can compete for a playoff spot in the AL East this year, but one thing is for sure: behind Ricky Romero this Toronto team always has a good shot at winning. The oddsmakers seem to agree with me as the Blue Jays are favorites here on the road to open the season in Cleveland. Thursday's match up will feature Ricky Romero vs Justin Masterson. Romero is coming off a great season where he went 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .216 opponents batting average. Pretty impressive numbers, especially in a tough AL East Division. His first half performance earned him a trip to the All Star game which was well deserved. This spring Ricky has looked in mid-season form. Romero had 4 appearances pitching 11 innings. In those 11 innings of work Romero allowed just 2 hits, 0 runs and had 10 strikeouts with just 2 walks. Justin Masterson had his best season in the bigs going 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and .257 opponents batting average which earned him the number one spot in the Indian's rotation. While spring training doesn't really show much for some pitchers, it is noted that Justin had a rough spring. In 18 innings of work spread out across 5 appearances Justin allowed 23 hits and 18 earned runs for an ERA of 9.00. Opponents were batting .315 against Masterson, and his WHIP was up to 1.56. Take note that dating back to last season the Jays are 11-2 in Romero's last 13 starts and 8-0 in his last 8 starts as a favorite. The Indians are just 3-7 in Masterson's last 10 starts as an underdog. These two teams met 7 times last season with the Jays winning the season series 4-3. Also note that the Jays went 3-1 in Cleveland last year. I'm backing Ricky Romero and this Blue Jays team here on opening day.

JEFF BENTON

Your Thursday freebie is the Orlando Magic as the home favorite over the New York Knicks.

Tough call tonight, as both teams have taken a turn for the worse, New York having dropped their last three on the road both straight up and against the spread, while Orlando is on a four-game straight up and against the spread losing streak.

The Orlando skid started just over a week ago when they went up to New York and laid an egg in a 108-86 loss to the Knickerbockers. I have to believe that loss will serve as the rallying cry tonight for the slumping Magic.

The Knicks 40-17 fourth quarter collapse on Tuesday at Indiana should serve as a major "red flag" to anyone who is looking to get some return on their investment on New York. Mike Woodson's team has a slew of injuries they are trying to play through, and I don't see it happening.

On the flip side, Orlando also has a slew of injuries with Howard and Nelson both listed as questionable, and Anderson listed as out. As I said, tough game to call tonight, but my belief is that 22-point loss eight days ago at the Garden is going to inspire whoever is in uniform tonight to step up and gain a measure of revenge.

Back Orlando as the small home chalk.

1♦ ORLANDO

SCOTT DELANEY

It's going to be hard to get me to go against the Philadelphia Phillies over the first month, as I think they're coming into the season hyped up more than I've seen in recent years.

Today they get the season underway by handing the ball to Roy Halladay, who has lived up to his expectations since the Phillies acquired him before the 2010 season. He won the 2010 NL Cy Young and finished second in the voting last season. He leads one of the most talented rotations in the bigs, and I don't think the Pirates are going to have much offensively to challenge the ace right-hander.

On the other hand, southpaw Erik Bedard will make his third Opening Day start - his first since 2008, when he was with the Mariners - not to mention his debut on the senior circuit. I know he was Pittsburgh's key offseason free-agent signing, but I don't know how long he's going to last against a lineup like this.

Look for Philly to roll today.

2♦ PHILADELPHIA

CHUCK O'BRIEN

My free winner for Thursday is going to be the Washington Nationals, with Stephen Strasburg, over the Chicago Cubs and Ryan Dempster. I know this is Washington's fire-baller's first Opening Day assignment, and that he's attempting to bounce back after missing most of last season because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, but his off-season dedication has been phenomenal, and there's nothing more he's been waiting for than this day.

The hard-throwing right-hander produced a 1.50 ERA in five September outings, and the itch for Opening Day has long been nagging him. Strasburg is going to be under a careful watch, as he's expected to pitch no more than 160 innings this season. That means he needs to make the most of every outing.

For Chicago, this is going to be Dempster's fourth Opening Day start, his second with the Cubs. And believe me, he's hoping for a better start than his first one for Chicago. Last season he had a 9.58 ERA in six April outings, including the season
opener, in which he allowed six runs over 6-2/3 innings against the Pirates.

Though these obviously refer to last season, Washington did close its 2011 campaign on winning runs, as it was 10-1 in road games and 9-2 overall. Look for the momentum to continue and Strasburg to fire. Lay the run line, as the Nationals will chase Dempster and give Strasburg an early lead to work with.

2♦ WASHINGTON RUN LINE