CHRIS JORDAN
Free winner is on the Miami Marlins bouncing back from last night's cold start at the plate, as they were shut down against the St. Louis Cardinals at home, ruining the debut of their new stadium on national television.
I think the Marlins were simply tentative, playing a bit nervous with a lot of pressure to start the season. Now on the road, I don't see much of a spotlight shining on them, and they don't have to worry about bright lights and television cameras, tons of media and hoardes of fans.
Tonight they can go out and play baseball.
And you tell me I'm getting plus-money with Mark Buehrle, the southpaw veteran who is making his Miami debut after spending his entire career with the White Sox, I'm all over it. Buehrle is 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA lifetime against the Reds, so confidence will prevail here.
Play the Marlins tonight.
2♦ MIAMI
MATT RIVERS
Thursday's free play winner comes in baseball as I back reining Cy Young Award Winner Clayton Kershaw on the road to mow down the Padres at Petco Park.
The Dodgers enter the season on a high-note thanks to the fact the ownership issue is no longer in limbo, and while this game is not being played at Dodger Stadium, expect a big Los Angeles allegiance in the stands tonight.
Los Angeles won ten of the final twelve games between the division rivals last season, and Clayton Kershaw was a large part of that swell, as the southpaw tossed a pair of complete games at the Padres in his three starts against them.
Overall, Kershaw went a perfect 3-0 versus the Friars last season, 25-plus innings pitched, just 16 hits and 5 earned runs allowed in compiling that 3-0 ledger.
Edinson Volquez makes his San Diego debut tonight, and I don't see him hanging around too long before making the costly mistake that puts his team behind by a couple of runs. That will be more than enough for Kershaw to work with.
Take the Dodgers as the road favorite tonight against the Padres.
3♦ LOS ANGELES DODGERS
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta -104 over N.Y. METS
The cleaning up of their financial mess has begun but the Mets product on the field still has a long way to go. New York did not add a significant piece this offseason, compounded by the fact it lost one of the top free agents in Jose Reyes. They also lost Angel Pagen, Willie Harris and Chris Capuano. The Mets hit the fourth fewest runs in the league last season and as a result, they’ve decided to change the dimensions of Citi Field, bringing in the fences to generate more power. The problem with that is that it will be easier for the opposition too and the Mets rotation instills fear into nobody. Johan Santana will get the Opening Day nod for the Mets after missing all of 2011 due to shoulder surgery. Santana showed no signs of trouble this spring, tossing 18 innings with a 3.44 ERA and a 13:7 K: BB ratio. Manager Terry Collins confirmed that Santana is "healthy," although the Mets expect to monitor his innings. Spring numbers are just that and until Santana shows us something in real time, we’ll gladly fade him and the Mets. His decline was already underway before his surgery, as elevated strand rates hid a declining strikeout rate. He was no longer elite before the surgery and now his health still a huge question mark. Tommy Hanson is a young rotation anchor who has not reached his ceiling yet. His skills surged for the second straight season in 2011, putting him firmly among the game's elite. Hanson was diagnosed with a small tear in his rotator cuff last season and he re-worked his delivery in the off-season but he was solid in the spring with a 2.77 ERA and one walk in 13 frames. The Braves added nothing and lost little in the offseason and will field the same team as last year. They were better than New York last season, they’re much better this season and they have a significant edge on the hill in the opener. Play: Atlanta -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
PITTSBURGH +157 over Philadelphia
You may see us fading the Phillies quite a bit early on because they’re likely to be overvalued most days, especially at the outset of the season. If things go bad, the marketplace will catch up but for now, they’re overpriced. Roy Halladay gets the opening day start and he needs no introduction. It’s same ol', same ol'. Other than age risk, the downside here just isn't apparent unless one chooses to view that 2H command "slide" as a warning sign. He’s still MLB's ace/workhorse poster boy but he may not get the offensive support he’s going to need. The Phillies parted ways with free agents Raul Ibanez, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and Roy Oswalt while also trading away backup infielder Wilson Valdez. The Phillies did have their usual big catch over the winter, adding former Boston closer Jonathan Papelbon to the mix but the rest of the moves were designed to fill in for injuries that have already afflicted the roster. The Phillies are built to win another World Series but making the playoffs is by no means a lock given the current state of the offense and the aging pitching staff. The Pittsburgh Pirates teased the baseball world last season when they went into the All-Star break holding a one-game lead atop the National League Central. But everything changed on the night of July 26 when one of the worst calls you'll ever see caused them to lose a six-hour, 19-inning marathon in Atlanta. On the surface it was just another loss, but the Pirates went onto lose 10 of their next 11 games and won only 18 of the season's final 59 games. That said, it showed that there is some talent on this roster and it starts with emerging star Andrew McCutchen. Erik Bedard gets the opening day assignment and when healthy, he can be very good. He’ll make his NL debut here after spending eight years in the AL. He enjoyed his healthiest year since 2007, missing only 31 days after triple-digit days lost in each of the previous three seasons. Bedard can handcuff both RH and LH hitters, he has solid control and averages a strikeout per inning. On opening day in Pittsburgh with Bedard facing hitters that are unfamiliar with him, we’ll gladly take our chances with the Bucs at this overlay. Play: Pittsburgh +157 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto -121 over CLEVELAND
During spring training we see a lot of inflated batting numbers, as major league players face a lot of minor league prospects. The Indians come into the season after some ugly spring numbers that saw them bat a combined .247. This is a team that is relying on Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner to stay healthy and to have productive years. They might just be the most offensively challenged team in the AL. Justin Masterson finally had the breakout in 2011 that many saw coming. That doesn't mean you should bet on a repeat. His strikeout rate decreased for the second straight season. He had a tiny 6% HR/F. His SO rate vs. LHers was a lot lower than the rate he posted against RH batters and he had surgery on his labrum in the off-season. Expect his ERA of 3.21 last season rise significantly to 4.21 or thereabouts. The Blue Jays were tearing it up in the spring and they have so much more confidence coming into the opener than the Indians. Warranted or not, there are some high expectations for the Blue Jays and if the pitching holds up, they really could be contenders. Ricky Romero went 2-0 in the spring with an ERA of 0.00. In 11 innings, he allowed two hits and struck out 10. Historically, he’s been outstanding in the first half with erosion in the second half. Romero also is one of the rare pitchers whose skills improve during the game, as he dominates more the third time through the lineup than the first and second times through. Romero has a great chance to dominate here against a Tribe team that comes in struggling offensively without a single pitch being thrown yet. That’s not the way you want to begin the year. Play: Toronto -121 (Risking 2.42 units to win 2).
Steve Janus
New York Mets -101
The Mets are showing some solid value at pretty much even odds at home. New York will send out Johan Santana, who will be making his first start since the 2010 season. Santana has been effective in spring training. He know longer has a fastball in the mid-90's, but he still knows how to get batters out with that nasty change-up.
The Braves will counter with Tommy Hanson, who is one of the promising young starters in the NL. However, Hanson has not been all that effective against the Mets. He is 3-3 with a 3.69 ERA in 7 starts.
While I don't think the Mets will be able to contend for a division title, I look for them to play extremely hard early in the season. No one is giving this team a chance. With Santana on the mound, I think this is definitely a play worth throwing a little on the side.
Freddy Wills
Cincinnati Reds -143
Cueto did not start until May of last year and when he did pitch he was on fire with a 2.20 ERA and that never changed throughout the year as he posted a 1.38 ERA at home and a relevant 2.01 ERA during 9 day starts. He has not been dominant this spring, but a 1.20 WHIP and a past of struggles in the Spring Training and domination in the regular season has me confident. He also gets to face off against the Marlins who will likely be in a tough situation after playing their home opener against the Cardinals on Wednesday night they travel in what I think is a hang over spot. Cueto has also posted some good numbers vs. the Marlins hitters. In 58 AB he has held them to a .241 average and .673 OPS. Jose Reyes is just 1-12.
On the flip side Mark Buehlre will start for the Marlins and traditionally he is a slow starter. He has a 6.62 ERA through his 4 starts in spring training and I think it's going to take some time adjusting to the National League. We see it all the time with pitchers who have been in one league forever and then switching to the other and they just are not the same at first. Recent example Matt Garza from the Cubs. Buehlre will has his hands full vs. a Reds team that was #4 in the league in OPS vs. LHP with a .794 in 2011. They were also #3 with a .768 OPS during the day and #9 with a .756 OPS in their home games. In other words they can flat out rake and with their ace on the mound we love the Reds.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Toronto/ Cleveland Over 7: This series has been a bit high scoring of late as the OVER is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings, with an average of 10.9 rpg being scored in those games. Justin Masterson only faced Toronto once last year and threw just 1 inning vs them, but in 2 starts vs them he has a 5.92 ERA, with both games putting at least 7 runs on the board. Ricky Romero is coming off a nice year for the Jays in which he posted a 2.92 ERA in 32 starts, but he has had some problems with the Tribe, as he has a 5.40 ERA in 3 career starts vs them. Romero will face a Cleveland offense that should be very strong, now that Hafner, and Choo are healthy, to go along with Cabrera, Santana, and Kipnis. This team should easily top last years 4.4 rpg they scored. Toronto comes in with a potent offense led by Bautista, Encarnacion, Johnson and Arencibia and they should eclipse last years numbers of 4.6 rpg and .249 BA. Jose lind is also in the mix, but is questionable for this one, still this Jays lineup shold be able to do damage vs Masterson today. Both pitchers have struggled of late in this series and with two solid offenses facing them I will expect about 9 runs in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
DETROIT -143 over Boston: Google News Play The Bosox are not the same team as in years past. They will be weaker this year, especially at the start with the loss of Crawford and now closer Andrew Bailey will be out 4 to 5 months. The core of their offense is still there with All-Stars OF Jacoby Ellsbury, 1B Adrian Gonzalez and 2B Dustin Pedroia, but they are still not as strong offensively as last year when they put up 5.4 rpg. Today they will face last years Cy Young and AL MVP winner in Justin Verlander and he has done well with a 3-2 mark and 3.22 ERA in 7 starts vs Boston, including a 2-0 mark with a 1.76 ERA in his last 4 starts vs them. On the other side, Jon Lest has not had a good time vs the Tigers as he is 0-2 with a 5.89 ERA in 3 starts vs them. Things might not get better for him today as the Tigers look to have one of the best offenses in baseball. Detroit has some solid hitters besides Cabrera and Fielder. 2B Ryan Raburn posted a .911 OPS in last year’s playoffs, LF Brennan Boesch hit .283 with 16 homers in 2011 and SS Jhonny Peralta batted .299 with 21 homers last season. Home opener and season opener for a tigers team that has a ton of promise this year and they should open the year with a solid win over a Boston team that I feel will take a step back this year. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Tigers are 17-2 the last 2 seasons, when Justin Verlander is on the mound as a favorite of -125 to -175.
Toronto -123 over CLEVELAND: I have Toronto as being a team that could surprise this year, but it is hard for this team to move up in the AL East with the Sox, Yanks and Rays there, but I do believe they have a chance to take over the number 3 spot from the BoSox. Toronto may be without Lind in this one, but ofensively they still are loaed with Bautista, Johnson, Encarnacion and Thames, plus thier catcher J.P. Arencibia hit 23 HR's and 78 RBI's from the bottom of the order last year. This is a team with plenty of pop and should have a good showing vs Masterson, who is 1-1 but with a 5.92 ERA in 2 career starts vs them. Cleveland does have some pop as well, but not as much as the Jays, especially with Sizemore on the DL at present. Ricky Romero is off a fine year, in which he went 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA and while he does have a 5.40 ERA in 3 starts vs the Tribe, he is 2-1 in those games. Right now i feel the Jays are the better team, with the better offense and better starter on the mound and they should win a rather high scoring game here.
1 UNIT PLAY
Los Angeles -1.5 (-110) over SAN DIEGO: The Dodgers had a bad year last year, both on an off the field, but some of their distractions are gone now that they finally have an owner and that means they should be focused for this one. The padres have no pop in their offense and Carlos Quentin was to help greatly in that department, but he is one the DL, making this offense even weaker. Clayton Kershaw is one of the better pitchers in all of baseball and he will not allow the Padres to get much in this one. Edinson Volquez will throw up better numbers in this spacious park, but he is still just 9-10 with a 5.20 ERA in his last 2 years. I look for the Dodgers to take out a year and a half worth of frustrations out on this Padres club that will reside in the basement of the division all year long.
NHL Predictions
Bruins / Senators Over 5.5
Tonight we should see Marty Turco vs Ben Bishop in net. These two teams have met 5 times this season with 4 of those 5 meetings going OVER the posted total. We’ve seen totals of 1, 8, 7, 7 and 8. Over their last 10 games the Bruins are averaging 3.60 goals, while the Senators are averaging 2.90. On the road this season Boston is averaging 3.15 goals per game and 2.70 against. Ottawa is scoring 2.88 goals per game at home, while giving up 3.02 against. Take note that the OVER is 9-4-1 in the Bruins last 14 games, and 21-7-2 in their last 30 road games. The OVER is 5-1 in the Sens last 6 overall. Take the OVER here tonight.
David Banks
Boston Celtics +8
The second leg of TNT's Thursday night doubleheader takes us to the Windy City where the Chicago Bulls (42-13, 32-23 ATS) will look to put an end to their first two-game losing streak in over a year when they close out their regular season series with the Boston Celtics (30-22, 26-26 ATS); the game's tip is set to go live from the United Center at 9:30 ET.
The Celtics had reached a season low heading into the All Star break dropping five straight games both SU & ATS. However, the time off was exactly what Head Coach Doc Rivers needed to get his squad playing the type of ball many expected to see from this veteran club as the outset of the season. Though it failed to cover its first two out of the break, Boston won each of its five games out of it to catapult itself back into the Atlantic Division title chase. Since then, the C's have been one of the hottest teams in the league capturing wins in 15 of their L/20 overall games while covering the closing number in 13 of those contests. They'll enter Wednesday night's home clash with San Antonio winners of five in a row both SU & ATS, but will head to Chicago the following night 11-14 SU & ATS on the road as well as 7-8 SU & 5-10 ATS records when playing on no rest.
A little over a year had passed since the Bulls dropped back-to-back games, but that impressive streak came to an end on Monday night when they lost to Houston at home the night after getting rolled in Oklahoma City Sunday afternoon. In order for Chicago to halt this mini losing streak, it will have to take better care of the ball after turning it over a combined 31 times in the pair of defeats. Reigning MVP - Derrick Rose - absorbed some contact in Wednesday's practice, so it's possible that he'll take to the hardwood after sitting out each of Chicago's L/11 games. The Bulls check in 14-7 SU & 11-10 ATS in the 21 overall contests he's missed to date. Chicago has been at its absolute best as a host winning 21 of their 27 overall games, but they've only managed to cover the closing number in 13 of those games. Coach Thibodeau's squad will have had two days to prepare for this one and have gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS under that scenario to date.
Chicago holds 2-1 SU & ATS series advantages over the Celtics this season, and it's won four of the conference rivals L/5 overall meetings; the 'under' cashed in four of those contests. They already defeated Boston without D-Rose in the line-up back on February 16th when they scored the 89-80 home win and cover as eight-point favorites. Boston's covered four of its L/5 on the road as well as six of its L/8 against +.600 opposition, but has had trouble against Central Division opposition managing just one cover in its L/6 tries. The home team has covered five of the L/6 in this rivalry and Chicago's 10-3 ATS its L/13 TNT appearances. The 'under' has cashed each of the L/5 times these squads went at it in the United Center.
WUNDERDOG
Dallas at Nashville
Pick: Nashville -150
The Dallas Stars have been on a topsy-turvy road all season long. They opened the season on fire at 11-3, then went in the tank at 4-9, and have been riding the roller coaster all season. They are at it again. After posting a 10-1 run, the Stars have fallen prey to their own inconsistencies at 3-7 over their last 10, including three straight in the loss column. Nashville has won four of their last six, and for the most part have gotten stellar play between the pipes, as the four wins show just a single opponents' goal in each. The Stars have fallen prey to each of the last five opponents they have faced with a winning record, while the Predators are living up to their name at home, taking 21 of the last 28 here. Play on Nashville.
Teddy Covers
Washington @ Detroit
PICK: Detroit -8
When teams don’t look past the Wizards, they beat the Wizards. Washington is a tired team. They played back-2-backs on Sunday and Monday. They endured a back-2-back-2-back stretch last week, and are in the middleof a second ‘three games in three nights’ stretch tonight with this game against the Pistons. And for a team that was competing hard for an extended stretch in March, we’re starting to hear excuses for Washington’s poor results (1-8 SU in their last 9 games, 3-13 in their last 16, with only four pointspread covers in defeat during that entire span).
Wizards head coach Randy Wittman: “Hopefully we can get our injured guys back as soon as possible, but if not, we have to find a way to pull through. It is hard being in this situation with some new guys. Some players are not used to certain plays, but that’s the nature of this business.” Point guard John Wall, talking about the loss to Toronto on Monday: “We didn't have a lot of energy… and we weren't able to fight our way back. They just played harder than us.” Wall talking about last night’s second half collapse against the Pacers: “In the third and fourth quarter, fatigue wore us down and they took the game away.” Playing without low post starters Nene and Trevor Booker, the Wizards limited roster is likely to be outclassed and outhustled again tonight.
There’s a major contrast between the Wizards attitude with what we’re seeing out of Detroit these days. The Pistons are playing their best ball of the year right now, winners of four of their last five. They’ve been blowing out bad teams in recent weeks, beating Toronto by 19, Charlotte by 15, New Jersey by 17, Sacramento by 12 and Cleveland by 12. Head coach Lawrence Frank: “We’ve come together as a team. Every night, you expect to have a chance to win the game, where in December, January, you had no clue. You had no idea what was going to happen. (Now) you go in expecting to win, disappointed and surprised when you don’t.” Expect a comfortable Pistons win here. Take Detroit.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Clippers -3
The Los Angeles Clippers are showing great value as a mere 3-point favorite tonight over the Sacramento Kings. The Clippers have a lot to play for still as they were trying to improve their playoff seeding assure themselves among the top four in the West so they have home-court advantage in the first round.
Sacramento (19-35) has shown that they can play well at times, but the Kings are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this spot. They'll be up against a red hot Clippers team that has won six of its last seven overall. L.A. also won their only meeting with the Kings this season 108-100 back on March 1st in Sacramento.
The Kings are 28-55 ATS in their last 83 when playing thier 5th game in 7 days. Los Angeles is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Sacramento is 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. The Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Clippers Thursday.
Jeff Alexander
Dodgers/Padres UNDER 6
The Under has been the play in this series at 37-16 in the last 53 meetings. It is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings between these two at pitcher-friendly Petco and 7-2 in Kershaw's last 9 starts vs. the Padres. We have seen 6 total runs or fewer scored in 9 of the last 12 meetings between these foes. We'll bet the Under tonight.
Rocketman
Boston @ Chicago
Play: Chicago -7.5
Boston comes in with a 30-23 overall record this year while Chicago is now 42-13 overall on the season. Boston is 13-27 ATS last 3 years after 3 or more consecutive unders. Chicago is 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS this year after playing a non-conference game. Boston is scoring only 90.6 points per game on the road this year. Chicago is allowing only 88.8 points per game overall this year and 88.7 points per game at home this season. Chicago is 4-1 SU an ATS at home vs Boston the past 3 years. Boston is 7-20 ATS last 27 games when playing with no rest. The favorite is 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings in this series. Boston played a tough game at home last night against the Spurs where they lost by one point. Chicago has had a few days off to rest. Age vs Youth in this one and youth prevails. We'll recommend a small play on Chicago tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
Knicks/Magic Under 189
I expect much better defensive efforts from both of these teams tonight and the result should be a winning unders ticket.
The Knicks can't be happy with the 112 points they gave up to the Pacers in their last game, and I fully expect them to tighten the screws here. They have played to the under in 7 of their last 10 while holding 7 of those opponents to 88 points or less. They held Orlando to just 86 points last week.
I also expect the Magic to get after it on defense after allowing their fifth straight opponent to score at least 100 points. They are 10-1 under in their last 11 home games following 3 or more consecutive overs. We have seen just 184.2 total points scored on average in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Magic are 28-11 under in their last 39 games after allowing 100 points or more in 2 straight games.
The under is 22-10 in the Knicks' last 32 road games and 12-5 in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The under is also 33-16-1 in the Magic's last 50 games as a home favorite. We'll bet the Under.
Rob Vinciletti
Washington Wizards vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons -8
Detroit is off back to back solid efforts, the latest a nice home win over Orlando. The Pistons are a hit shooting team right now going over 50% from the field in back to back games and are 8-4 to the spread off a dog win and have covered 8 of 11 vs South East Division teams. They have won and covered 4 of the last 5 here vs Washington. The Wizards are un rested and off another double digit loss last night. Tonight we note that the last 2+ years Washington is a dismal 0-11 straight up and 1-10 to the spread on the road as a dog of 5 or more with no rest after scoring 90 or more at home, losing by a 106-89 average score. In fact all teams going into Detroit with no rest off a home game where they scored 90 or more are 0-8 ats. With Washington just 3-12 with home loss revenge we will back the Pistons here tonight.