Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, April 7,2011

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers take on the Orioles in the finale of this four game series in Baltimore tonight when Detroit sends newly acquired Brad Penny to the mound as he looks to improve on his 2-0 career team start mark against the Birds. Meanwhile, Penny has cashed in 13 of his last 20 team starts during April while also going 13-7 in his last 20 road starts in April as well. With that look for the Tigers to come up big here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

MTi Sports

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Prediction: Minnesota Twins

The Yankees managed only six hits on Tuesday and blew a gem by Sabathia when Soriano game in the eighth and walked three batters. New York does not bounce back well in this spot and the Twins have done very well when they grab the momentum. The Yankees are 23-32 as a 140+ favorite at night after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $2960 when playing against. On the other hand, the Twins are 6-0 as a 135-plus underdog when they are off a win in which they allowed six or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series, winning every game by multiple runs. Very Nice. Also, Minnesota carries the momentum of a late run-scoring burst into their next game, as they were 9-0 last season on the road when they are off a game in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent?s starter ? each of their last eight wins were by multiple runs. Finally, the Yankees are 42-43 since 2005 when facing their second straight lefty, for a net profit of $2020 for a $100 player. We give the Twins a solid chance here and that?s enough at this price.

Rob Vinciletti

Rays vs. White Sox
Play: Over 8.5

This game fits a totals system that plays to the over for road dogs that are off a home loss and had 4 or less hits and are taking on an opponent off a road win and scored 10 or more runs. Tampa has been dormant at the plate so far this season. Today they take the road after losing all of their home games thus far. The White Sox have been hot at the Plate and have had success against Tampa lefty D. Price as he has a 5.00 era against them in his limited starts. Look for this game to play over the total here today.

BIG AL

Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Boston Red Sox

Opening day didn't go as planned for many of the league's top starters. Guys like Ubaldo Jimenez, Francisco Liriano, and David Price got knocked around pretty good in their season debuts and you can include Boston's lefthanded ace Jon Lester in that group as well. Lester faced the Rangers last Friday, and Texas tagged him for three home runs, the first team ever to do that, while going on to clobber the Sox by a 9-5 score. Today, Lester will look to bounce back and he's likely looking forward to seeing the Cleveland lineup this time instead of the defending AL Champions when he steps to the mound. And, despite what the Indians did to Boston in the first two games of this series - beating them 3-1 and 8-4 - this is truly one ugly pitching staff. Just as the Indians found out with the White Sox in their first series when they were turning around to watch balls fly out of the park, they will likely discover that it doesn't get much better with the other "Sox" team from Boston. Take the Red Sox.

Jim Feist

Celtics vs. Bulls
Play: Under 179

Historically these teams go over the total when they face each other, but Utah has made huge changes to their style and coaching staff the last two months. They are now a much weaker offensive team and oddsmakers haven't caught up, on a 7-1 run under the total. And they face a strong Portland defense, one that allows 94.9 ppg -- 6th best in the NBA. The Under is 13-6 in Trail Blazers last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Play the Blazers/Jazz Under the total.

EZWINNERS

Florida Marlins -$210

The Marlins ace starting pitcher Josh Johnson flirted with a no hitter in his opening day start against the Mets as he held New York scoreless through six innings. Johnson has dominated the Nationals in his career as he is 7-0 against Washington with an ERA of 3.27. The lefty John Lannan gets the start for the Nats and Florida is 16-5 in their last twenty one home games against a left handed starter and the Marlins are also 26-9 in Johnson's last thirty five home starts. The Marlins have dominated this series to the tune of 42-14 and I look for that dominance to continue. Play on Florida.

SPORTS WAGERS

Colorado +102 over PITTSBURGH

1:30 PM EST. The ineptitude of Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has not been exposed quite yet. Its starters are off to a decent start, as is the team and that presents an opportunity for us to receive some value playing against them. Paul Maholm beat the Cubs in his first start of the year but this isn’t Wrigley with the wind blowing in. Maholm’s skills have declined to the point of irrelevance. He’ll eat up innings but his ERA and xERA is going to be up around 5.00+, just like it was last year. This is an average pitcher with very average stuff and current Rockies hitters have absolutely rocked this guy to the tune of a .355 BA and 1.025 OPS in 93 combined AB’s. Esmil Rogers went 2-3 with a 6.13 ERA in 72 IP with Colorado last year but those are misleading numbers. His low strand rate of 55.9% is the result of bad luck and that number will normalize. Rogers struck out 8.2 batters per nine and that’s always a positive. Rogers had a good spring in which he allowed just 23 hits in 25 innings, walked five and struck out 16. Better team plus better pitcher with a tag is the call. Play: Colorado +102 (Risking 2 units).

TORONTO –1 +120 over Oakland

12:30 PM EST. Don’t be fooled by Trevor Cahill’s excellent results last year that on paper showed an 18-8 record with a 2.97 ERA. A 24% hit rate and 77% strand rate made his ERA much lower than it should have been and his surface stats this season will regress big time. Even in his first start of the year it took 105 pitches for Cahill to labor through just 4.2 innings against the Mariners on Friday night. He was in trouble the whole game and his strand rate in that game was 88%. The A’s lost the opener yesterday and they did little against the Jays a season ago, being outscored by 24 runs with a .240 BA/.328 slugging percentage in seven games. In three career starts against the A’s, Ricky Romero is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA. Romero has dominated in the first half in both his season’s in the majors. Last year he posted a 2.83 ERA with a 1.23 in 1H and the season prior his numbers were similar. In his opener this year he pitched into the seventh inning against the Twins and allowed one run. Romero has elite skills with a groundball/flyball ratio of 55%/27% and it’s no fluke. This year the reports are he’s better conditioned to extend his dominance into the second half and chances are great he’ll continue that dominance against the A’s. Play: Toronto –1 +120 (Risking 2 units).

Matt Fargo

Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Atlanta Braves

After winning the opener, the Braves have dropped the last two games in Milwaukee, both by just one run, and I expect them to square this series Thursday afternoon. Atlanta has been shaky on offense to start the season but that is something that will come around. The pitching meanwhile has a 2.47 ERA on the season which is second best in baseball and tops in the National League. Both the starting pitching and the bullpen have been consistent, the latter posting a 1.47 ERA, third best in MLB. The Brewers meanwhile have not been nearly as consistent with their pitching as they have a 4.35 ERA on the year despite a gem put up by Yovani Gallardo two nights ago. While the Braves bullpen has been solid, Milwaukee's bullpen has been just the opposite with a 5.62 ERA, 24th in baseball. The bats have not been able to pick up the slack as the Brewers are hitting .235 and have plated only 18 runs so far this year while scoring three runs or fewer in four of their six games. One of the big pitching acquisitions for Milwaukee was getting Shaun Marcum from Toronto. He should fit in very well into the Brewers rotation but he had an uneven debut as he struck out seven but issued five walks while allowing four hits and four runs in just 4.2 innings. The five walks tied a career high and this came after allowing just two walks the entire spring. His control may get better but he posted a 5.17 ERA in five spring starts so the adjustment period seems to be an early issue. While Marcum had a rough first outing, Tommy Hanson's was even worse. He went just 3.2 innings against Washington while allowing five hits and four runs, three earned, and striking out just one. He did throw only 68 pitches as he was yanked after a rain delay so the limited pitch count should be a benefit here. This was a complete aberration and we should see a better effort Thursday as he has a 1.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in career starts at Miller Park, both being quality outings. 3* Atlanta Braves

Rocketman

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Detroit Tigers

Baltimore is 5-11 last 3 years as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Detroit is scoring 6 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Tigers are 9-2 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Orioles are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Orioles are 2-8 in Tillmans last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Orioles are 1-5 in Tillmans last 6 starts vs. American League Central. Orioles are 1-6 in Tillmans last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Orioles are 0-4 in Tillmans last 4 starts with 4 days of rest. We'll recommend a small play on Detroit tonight!

Craig Trapp

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -4.5

Blazers are finally healthy and when healthy this team has proved they can beat anyone. Blazers need to get the 6th seed and that means they need to win out. Jazz have really been bad at times over last 10 games losing 8 of last 10 straight up. Jazz are coming off huge win at Lakers, think they are due for big letdown. Blazers have all the motivation and much better talent, lay the pts.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Baltimore Orioles -135

Look for Baltimore to bounce back strong from its first loss of the season this evening. Dating back to last season, the Orioles are 10-4 in their last 14 home games and 7-1 in their last 8 games as a home favorite. They'll have an excellent opportunity to build on these trends while facing Detroit's Brad Penny. Penny enters this contest with a 16.63 ERA after giving up 8 runs in 4 1/3 innings in his first start. He also has a career 7.72 ERA and 1.715 WHIP against the O's. I have a lot more faith in the Orioles' Chris Tillman, who gave up no runs on no hits in a 6-inning start at Tampa Bay Saturday. He faced the Tigers twice last season and only allowed 1 run in each start. The Tigers are 18-38 in their last 56 road games, 2-7 in their last 9 games as an underdog and 31-65 in their last 96 games as a road underdog. Bet Baltimore.

Freddy Wills

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles

We are off to a 2-1 start on our free plays after losing yesterday when the Mariners decided to make errors. Today I love the Orioles who send Tillman to the mound who had two starts vs. the Tigers last year going a combined 13.2 IP giving up just 4 hits and 2 ER. Tigers have some formidable bats, but not vs. righties on the road. If you remember this team dominated LHP on the road a year ago but it was a different story vs. righties. In fact they are 16-37 in their last 53 road games vs. RH starters. Brad Penny does not exactly scream confidence on the other side of the mound. He’s a classic slow starter and looked like a slob vs. the Yankees. I expect the O’s to get to him early and use their pitching to close out the game.

Bobby Conn

Oakland A's vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto is off to a hot start offensively, averaging .311 as a team and scoring 6.8 runs per game, a big reason for their 4-1 record. They'll match up against Trevor Cahill for the A's and Cahill has not had much success against the Jays in his young career. In three starts versus the Blue Jays he's 0-2 with a 8.05 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. Toronto sends Ricky Romero to the mound Thursday. Romero has had a lot of success against the A's lineup. He's 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.15 WHIP versus Oakland in his career. Lay the small juice on the Blue Jays Thursday.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls

Gonna go with the Bulls as they look to sew up home court advantage for the Eastern Conference playoffs. Boston is off an ATS win, a bad spot for them, as they are 11-22 ATS and an even worse 2-11 ATS if they won the previous game by 15 or more points. Chicago enters off three straight ATS losses, a real rarity for this team considering their 21-8 ATS record when off an ATS loss this season. Home team is a perfect 3-0 SU when these teams meet this season, including a 90-79 win by the Bulls here at the United Center back in January.

Play on: Chicago