SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Cleveland (61-17, 37-40-1 ATS) at Chicago (37-40, 39-36-2 ATS)
The Bulls try to climb into the final Eastern Conference playoff spot when they host the Cavaliers inside the United Center.
Cleveland has already wrapped up the NBA’s best record and home-court advantage in each round of the playoffs. On Tuesday, the Cavaliers scored a 113-101 home win over the Raptors, cashing as a 5½-point favorite to snap a five-game ATS slide and a 2-7 ATS funk. Cleveland has dropped two straight on the highway (0-2 ATS) after a four-game road winning streak (3-1 ATS).
Chicago, trailing the Raptors by a half-game in the race for the eighth and final spot in the conference playoff race, has won six of its last nine and cashed in seven of 10 overall. However, the Bulls dropped a 79-74 home game to the Bucks on Tuesday, getting upset as a 5½-point favorite. The Bulls are just 2-3 (SU and ATS) in their last five home games and only 22-17 at home this season (19-18-2 ATS).
The Cavs have taken two of three from Chicago this season and five of the last seven (4-3 ATS). Back on March 19, Cleveland won 92-85 in Chicago but came up short as a 10-point road chalk. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five clashes with the Cavs in Chicago, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in those five meetings.
Cleveland is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven Thursday games, but is currently shouldering ATS skids of 1-5 overall, 2-5 on the road, 1-4 after a day off and 0-4 after a straight-up win. Chicago is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home against a team with a winning road record, but otherwise the Bulls are on ATS runs of 9-3 overall, 18-7-1 against Central Division teams and 6-0 after a straight-up loss.
The Cavaliers have topped the total in seven of 11 after a spread-cover and three of four on Thursday, but they’ve stayed “under” the number in four of five against teams with a losing record and 19 of 26 against Central Division rivals. The Bulls have gone “over” the posted number in four of five at home against teams with winning road records, but they are on “under” streaks of 8-2 overall, 6-1 at home, 7-1 against Eastern Conference teams and 15-5-1 on Thursday. The “under” has also cashed in four straight in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
L.A. Lakers (55-22, 32-42-3 ATS) at Denver (51-27, 33-39-6 ATS)
The Nuggets shoot for their fourth straight victory when they take on the Lakers inside the Pepsi Center.
Denver is in a battle with the Mavericks, Utah and Phoenix for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, and currently sits tied with Dallas, a half-game ahead of the Suns and Jazz. Last night, the Nuggets went to Oklahoma City and rallied past the Thunder on 98-94, cashing as 2½-point underdogs. Denver’s three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS) comes on the heels of 1-5 SU and 0-7-1 ATS slumps.
Los Angeles has dropped three of four (SU and ATS), including Sunday’s 100-81 home setback to the Spurs as a 4½-point favorite. The Lakers shot just 33-for-81 from the field and got outrebounded 41-34 by the Spurs. Los Angeles is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine overall, including 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four roadies.
After losing 4-2 (3-3 ATS) to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals last season, the Nuggets have taken two of three (2-0-1 ATS) from Los Angeles this season, including a 105-79 home win back on Nov. 13, easily cashing as a four-point favorite.
The Lakers have cashed in 29 of their last 45 as a road ‘dog, but they are on ATS slides of 7-15-1 overall, 3-7-1 against Northwest Division squads and 2-6 when catching less than five points. Denver is 7-0 ATS in its last seven at home against an opponent with a winning road record and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 on Thursday, but it also carries negative ATS trends of 2-9-1 overall, 1-4 at home, 1-7-1 on the second night of a back-to-back and 1-7 as a favorite.
Los Angeles is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 7-3 overall, 10-2 as an underdog, 13-4 against Western Conference teams, 11-4 against winning squads and 14-6 on the road against opponents with a winning home record. The Nuggets are on “under” streaks of 9-2 overall, 4-1 at home and 6-1 as a favorite.
In this rivalry, the under has cashed in 12 of 16 overall and seven of nine in the Mile High City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (0-2) at Atlanta (2-0)
The Cubs and Braves wrap up a three-game series at Turner Field, with a pair of young right-handers slated to toe the slab as Chicago’s Randy Wells (12-10, 3.05 ERA in 2009) matches up against Tommy Hanson (11-4, 2.89 ERA).
Chipper Jones hit a go-ahead, two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth inning to help Atlanta rally for a 3-2 victory. The Braves, who crushed Chicago 16-5 in Monday’s season opener, have now won four straight meetings against the Cubs and they’re 6-2 in this rivalry since the start of 2009 after the Cubs swept the six-game season series in 2008.
Going back to last season the Cubs are in slumps of 1-6 overall, 1-5 against the N.L. East and 1-5 on Thursday. Meanwhile, Atlanta has won six straight against the N.L. Central, but otherwise carries negative trends of 2-6 overall (all at home) and 2-5 versus righty starters.
Wells made 27 starts in his rookie season and was very consistent, yielding three earned runs or fewer in all but seven of his outings. Over his final seven outings from Sept. 1 on, Wells, gave up one or zero earned runs five times, but the Cubs were just 3-6 in Wells’ final nine starts. The right-hander made 13 road starts, going 5-5 with a strong 2.88 ERA, though Chicago dropped four of it his last five on the highway.
Hanson came up as a highly touted rookie in June of last year and after a shaky debut (seven runs allowed in six innings against Milwaukee), he delivered as promised, winning his next four starts while posting a 0.78 ERA. Not only did Hanson ultimately hold 14 of 21 opponents to two earned runs or less, but the hard-throwing Oklahoma native had 116 strikeouts in 127.2 innings.
Hanson went 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 11 starts at Turner Field (compared with 4-2 and a 2.61 ERA in 10 road outings), with Atlanta winning eight of those 11 home contests.
Wells faced the Braves twice, going 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA, yielding just three earned runs and nine hits in 13 innings. Chicago won 4-2 at home, but lost 6-5 in Atlanta. Meanwhile, Hanson did not face the Cubs last year.
Chicago is riding a slew of “under” streaks, including 9-3-2 overall, 5-1-2 on the road, 6-2 against the N.L. East, 4-1-1 on Thursday, 6-2-1 when Wells starts and 3-0-1 when Wells pitches on the road. Also, the Braves stayed low in four of Hanson’s last five starts overall and each of his last four home starts, but as a team Atlanta has topped the total in four of six against the N.L. Central and four of five on Thursday.
Finally, the under is 6-1 in the last seven Cubs-Braves clashes overall, though the over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings at Turner Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (2-1) at L.A. Angels (1-2)
Joel Pineiro (15-12, 3.49 ERA in 2009) is scheduled to make his debut for the Angels, while the Twins will counter with Kevin Slowey (10-3, 4.86) as these squads conclude a four-game season-opening series at Angels Stadium.
These teams split their first two contests, with Los Angeles winning 6-3 on Monday and Minnesota taking a 5-3 decision Tuesday. Then on Wednesday, the Twins powered their way to a 4-2 victory on the strength of home runs by Justin Morneau and J.J. Hardy. Minnesota is 22-8 in its last 30 games against right-handed starters, but otherwise it remains in ruts of 2-4 overall, 3-5 on the road, 1-4 on the road against righty starters, 2-4 as an underdog and 2-7 in the fourth game of a series.
Despite losing the first two games of this series, Los Angeles is still on positive stretches of 13-7 overall, 9-4 at home, 7-4 against the A.L. Central, 12-3 as a favorite, 7-4 versus right-handed starters and 36-16 on Thursday.
Minnesota swept a three-game April home series against the Angels last year, but L.A. has since won seven of the last 10 clashes, and the Halos are still 6-3 in the last nine meetings in Anaheim. However, the visitor has won six of the last seven between these cubs following an eight-game run by the home team.
Slowey’s season was limited to 16 starts last year as he was shut down in early July because of an injury. The right-hander was solid in a nine-start stretch from early May to mid June, giving up three earned runs or fewer in eight of those contests, and Minnesota went 10-4 in his first 14 outings. However, Slowey got rocked in his final two starts, lasting exactly three innings in each game while surrendering a total of 11 runs (16.50 ERA).
Slowey went 2-3 with a hefty 5.01 ERA in six road starts last year, and he’s 9-11 with a 4.97 ERA as a visitor in his career. He’s faced the Angels four times, going 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA (1-0, 4.76 ERA in two games at Angel Stadium). Slowey’s last two outings against the Halos were quality, though, as he gave up a total of two runs on 14 hits in 13 1/3 innings (2.70 ERA), walking one and striking out 10.
Pineiro is coming off the best season of his career, as he made 32 starts with St. Louis, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 23 of those contests. He struggled a bit down the stretch, though, going 2-3 with a 4.99 ERA in his final seven contests. The veteran right-hander has been much better when pitching at home (46-34, 3.82 ERA) than on foreign turf (41-45, 4.95), and he’s 5-1 with a 5.40 in eight career games (five starts) at Angel Stadium.
Pineiro is just 2-6 with a 4.32 ERA in 15 lifetime appearances (14 starts) against Minnesota, the most recent being an interleague contest last June when he gave up five runs (three earned) in s 6 2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss in St. Louis.
Going back to last year, the Twins are on “under” runs of 5-0-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the road, 8-2-2 on the road against right-handed starters, 4-0-1 versus the A.L. West, 8-3 with Slowey pitching overall and 4-1 with Slowey working on the road. Likewise, L.A. carries “under” trends of 34-15-3 overall, 22-8-3 as a favorite, 19-7-2 against right-handed starters, 13-3-2 versus the A.L. Central and 36-16-3 in the fourth game of a series.
Conversely, in this rivalry, the over is on stretches of 7-2-1 overall, 6-2-2 in Los Angeles and 2-0-2 with Slowey facing the Angels.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
DUNKEL INDEX
LA Lakers at Denver
The Lakers look to bounce back from a 100-81 loss to San Antonio and build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games following a loss by 10 points or more. Los Angeles is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+2)
Game 501-502: Cleveland at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.857; Chicago 121.380
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 193
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over
Game 503-504: LA Clippers at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 105.816; Sacramento 116.385
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 10 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 6 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-6 1/2); Under
Game 505-506: LA Lakers at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 119.341; Denver 119.804
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+2); Under
MLB
LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
The Dodgers look to avoid a sweep against a Pittsburgh team that is 3-8 in Paul Maholm's last 11 starts. Los Angeles is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-160)
Game 951-952: LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.449; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.538
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-160); Under
Game 953-954: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Penny) 15.730; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.098
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Over
Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.871; Washington (Stammen) 14.154
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-155); Over
Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Wells) 14.563; Atlanta (Hanson) 13.950
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+170); Under
Game 959-960: Florida at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Robertson) 14.961; NY Mets (Niese) 16.297
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-115); Over
Game 961-962: Toronto at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 14.879; Texas (Wilson) 16.162
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150); Over
Game 963-964: Detroit at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Willis) 15.068; Kansas City (Bannister) 14.600
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Under
Game 965-966: Seattle at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Fister) 15.502; Oakland (Anderson) 15.260
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+145); Over
Game 967-968: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 15.792; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 14.085
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+160); Over
Game 969-970: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 14.721; White Sox (Floyd) 13.888
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125); Over
Game 971-972: Minnesota at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Slowey) 15.613; LA Angels (Pineiro) 17.013
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130); Under
NHL
Vancouver at San Jose
The Sharks look to take advantage of a Vancouver team that is 1-4 in its last 5 road games. San Jose is the pick (-170) according to Dunkel, which has the Sharks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-170)
Game 51-52: Buffalo at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 12.025; Boston 12.458
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 53-54: Montreal at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.733; Carolina 12.130
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 55-56: Ottawa at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.700; Tampa Bay 10.892
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+120); Over
Game 57-58: NY Islanders at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.194; Pittsburgh 11.671
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 59-60: New Jersey at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.306; Florida 11.656
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+145); Under
Game 61-62: Anaheim at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.634; Dallas 12.491
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-145); Over
Game 63-64: Minnesota at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 9.649; Calgary 11.770
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 65-66: Phoenix at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.976; Los Angeles 12.986
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 67-68: Vancouver at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.847; San Jose 12.136
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-170); Over
Marc Lawrence
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Dontrelle Willis' long awaited return to the starting rotation happens this afternoon when the Tigers take on Brian Bannister and the Royals in Kansas City. If spring training is any indication, then Willis is more than ready, as evidenced by a 2-0 effort with a 3.22 ERA. On the other side of the coin, Bannister struggled this spring, posting a forgettable 1-1 mark with a 7.41 ERA. With Willis 6-2 in his last eight team starts in April, look for Bannister to dip to 1-3 in his career home team starts against the Tigers here today.
Nick Parsons
Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning
Prediction: Ottawa Senators
I played on Ottawa successfully two nights ago and they beat up on the Panthers 5-2; for a number of different reasons I believe they'll once again come out on top tonight against a team they've owned historically:
After losing 4-1 to the Islanders on Saturday, the Sens bounced back with that 5-2 win over Florida on Tuesday.
We did some good things. I thought we worked hard on the penalty kill, said coach Cory Clouston, whose team has held its last eight opponents to 2 for 31 on the power play. We generated the offense that we wanted. I thought we lost a little bit of focus toward the end of third but overall very happy with the game.
Not only is Ottawa 7-1 its last eight, its also 4-1 its last five on the road.
On the other side of the ice: Only the Leafs have allowed more goals this year than the Lightning.
They are coming off a 5-0 loss to the Rangers on Friday and an 8-5 home loss to the Hurricanes on Tuesday.
Antero Niittymaki fell to 4-9-0 with a 4.09 goals-against average in his last 16 appearances and was relieved Tuesday by Mike Smith, one game after Smith was chased in favor of Niittymaki.
Tampa is limping down the stretch; 1-4 its last five overall; 1-6 its last seven in front of the home town crowd.
Bottom line: Ottawa is clearly the more motivated team here and will look to secure the fourth spot with a victory tonight; consider a second look at the decently priced SENATORS in this one.
Scott Spreitzer
Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings
The Clippers lost another last night as they continue to "mail it in." They're now on a six-game losing streak (2-4 ATS) and they have won just two of their last 18 games SU, going 5-13 ATS. While the Kings have also struggled, they have actually been quite profitable as a home fave. The Kings are on a healthy, 10-4 SU/ATS run as home chalk, beating the teams they're "supposed to." In fact, they have won their last two in this role by scores of 114-100 and 113-90. The Clippers played at home last night and of course, lost again. They have covered just one of their last eight when playing the second of back-to-back nights. They're also 0-3 SU/ATS this season when the second game follows a home game, losing by an average score of 115-91! I expect more of the same tonight, and I'm laying the points with the Kings. Good Luck, Scott Spreitzer
VEGAS EXPERTS
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll take a chance with the underdog here, as both Pittsburgh’s Paul Maholm and the Dodgers Chad Billingsley put up very similar numbers last year. Billingsley went 12-11 with a 4.03 ERA, while Maholm went 8-9 with a 4.44 ERA. Considering Maholm was on an awful Pittsburgh team last year, we give him a big of an edge. And Billingsley doesn’t exactly give us the chills as a road favorite, as he put up a 6-10 team start record as a road favorite of -150 or less. We’ll take the dog here.
Cajun Sports
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -2
The Pepsi Center will be the site of tonight’s battle between the host Denver Nuggets and the visiting Lakers from the City of Angels. The Lakers have struggled at this site over the last few years going 2-4 against the spread mainly because the Nuggets are able to take advantage of the Lakers weaknesses. A huge edge has been the Nuggets Chauncey Billups ability to dominate the smaller Lakers guard Derek Fisher who has seen his skill level diminish over time. Billups has averaged 21 points per game versus the Lakers this season while nailing treys at a 53 percent clip in those contests. The Nuggets are 32-6 at the Pepsi Center, winning by 9.6 points per game, which is the third best home record in the NBA. The Lakers are 22-16 SU on the road and 16-22-1 ATS in those games while Denver is 7-0 ATS against clubs with a winning road record. A check of the database reveals two key angles that are active for tonight’s game. The Lakers are 2-20 ATS on the road after a game in which more than seventy-five of their baskets were assisted. The Denver Nuggets are 43-23 ATS during the regular season when facing a team they lost to in their previous same season matchup. Finally we have a league-wide system that says to Play ON NBA home teams in this price range averaging 103 or more points per game versus an opponent after a loss of ten or more points. These home teams have posted a record of 30-7 ATS for 81 percent winners since 1996. We will lay the short price with the host as the Nuggets continue their solid play against the Lakers at the Pepsi Center.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Denver Nuggets 106 Los Angeles Lakers 90
Craig Trapp
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: LA Lakers +2
Denver gets big win last night in OKC but had to use a ton of energy to pull out the win. LAL have been resting since a very disappointing loss on Sunday to SA. A back to back game is bad news for DENVER as they just have very little depth for their front court. In fact since KMART has been out injured this team has been very average. The Lakers have played just so so lately but Kobe and company will be very motivated and are rested for huge game tonight. Lakers win this one outright and might even be a blowout as DEN is just not as good as record indicates!
Rob Vinciletti
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Under: 8.5
This game fits an early season under indicator here tonight. In the pitching matchup the Whitesox send G. Floyd to the hill. In his last two starts vs the Tribe he has been sensational allowing just 1 earned run in nearly 15 innings of work. Cleveland counters with J.Masterson tonight. Masterson has been superb in his recent starts vs the Whitesox. He has pitched 13 inning allowing just 2 earned runs with 16 strikeouts to his credit in 2 hard luck losses. With the pitching matchup and the early season totals indicator pointing to the under we will lean with the under 8.5 runs tonight.
BIG AL
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers aren't through with Dontrelle Willis. At least not yet. The 28-year-old lefthander showed enough promise in the spring that he made the Detroit rotation as the 5th starter and in fact made the Tigers comfortable enough with his left arm that they shipped their only other potential lefthanded veteran starter, Nate Robertson, off to Florida in late March. Although Willis didn't blow guys away, he went a very respectable 2-0 with a 3.22 ERA in four starts for his team and this first assignment against the Royals will actually be Willis' first ever regular season start against them. Willis' opponent on the hill will be righthanded veteran Brian Bannister and while Willis had a productive spring, Bannister definitely did not, putting up a 7.41 ERA in five spring starts. The Tigers improved themselves in the bullpen with the off-season acquisition of closer Jose Valverde, while their new lead-off man and center fielder Austin Jackson looks like he's going to make the team forget about the loss of Curtis Granderson pretty quickly. Take the Tigers.
Jim Feist
Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Over 8½
This is a low total for an AL game, especially one with No. 3-5 starters on the hill. 25-year old Justin Masterson goes for the Indians, a kid with a sidearm delivery and control troubles, especially against lefties. He was 4-10 last season with a 4.52 ERA, walking 60 in 129 innings, a poor ratio. Lefties hit .323 against him in 2009. Chicago starter Gavin Floyd had an ERA over 4 last season and it was even higher against these Indians. The last three years he has a 4.30 ERA against Cleveland, as they hit .270 off him. Play the Indians/White Sox Over the total.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play SAC KINGS over LA Clippers
Last time out versus the Clippers, our Kings ran home a 102-89 win as a ROAD UNDERDOG. Here they show laying money after faltering in back-to-back non-covers each was a winnable situation. I'll take a shot with the Kings tonight to break their 8 game slide and earn for their backers.
Karl Garrett
LA Clippers at SACRAMENTO (-5')
A couple of Western Conference door mats have at it at Arco Arena on Thursday, and I will lay the points with the Kings in this one.
The Clippers hosted Portland last night, and when playing with no rest they are just 7-13-1 against the spread.
Sacramento is riding a 9 game losing streak, but the matchups have been quite favorable for them in this series, as they are 18-2 straight up the last 20 meetings against the Clippers on their home hardwood.
The Kings have also won and covered the last pair of meetings against the Clippers, and are on a 6-2 straight up run the last 8 tilts, sporting a 5-3 against the spread mark.
With not a lot of NBA games this Thursday night, I will choose to lay the impost with Sacto over the Clips.
1♦ SACRAMENTO
Chuck O'Brien
Florida (PK) at N.Y. METS
Thursday’s complimentary play comes from MLB, as I’ll take the Marlins in a pick-em situation at the Mets.
I wouldn’t touch Florida today if they had ended up blowing that game to the Mets last night – the Marlins took a 6-1 lead into the bottom of the seventh inning, only to watch New York tie it at 6 in the ninth and force extra innings, with the Marlins eventually prevailing 7-6 in 10 innings. Since they won, though, the Marlins have plenty the momentum coming into this final game of the series.
The other thing they have is the more powerful offense, and that’s going to be the difference in this game as a pair of questionable starters will be on the mound and both bullpens are gassed after Wednesday’s marathon. While Florida starter Nate Robertson (formerly of the Tigers) is nothing special, he’s been around long enough to understand when his team needs him to eat some innings. And after spending his entire career pitching in the National League, Robertson’s going to think he’s back in Triple-A tonight, especially against this weak Mets lineup that features David Wright and little else.
As for Robertson’s counterpart in this game, young New York lefty Jonathon Niese, here’s all you need to know about him (and the state of this Mets franchise): Niese has made eight career big-league starts over the past two years and gone 2-2 with a 5.22 ERA, then he went out this spring and posted a 6.52 ERA … and yet he STILL won the No. 3 slot in the rotation!
Going back to last year, Florida has won seven of 10 meetings against the Mets, including four of five at Citi Field (outscoring New York 30-15 in the four wins). Also, the road team is 7-2 in the last 10 clashes.
3♦ FLORIDA
Bobby Maxwell
Minnesota at L.A. ANGELS (-130)
I'm on a 79-53-3 run with my FREE selections, and I'm delivering a baseball winner for you tonight as I go with the Angels at home to get the best of the Twins.
After Wednesday night, the Twins have already taken two of three in Anaheim, so there’s no way they’re leaving with a third straight win. I’ll lay the juice with new Angel Joel Pineiro on the hill.
Pineiro was 15-12 last season with the Cardinals with a 3.49 ERA, but his best season was 2003 with Seattle when he was 16-11 with a 3.87 ERA. He is a notoriously quick starter, going 14-9 in his career in the month of April. His only better month is July when he is a career 17-9 with three complete games.
Kevin Slowey goes for the Twins after a 10-3 year last year with a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts. He is 2-1 against the Angels with a 4.57 ERA and he’s 1-0 at Angel Stadium with a 4.76 ERA in 11.1 innings. He didn’t pitch after July 4 last season, so he missed all of the Twins’ run to the playoffs.
The Angels have won seven of the last 10 meetings with Minnesota, but they haven’t gotten the bats going to this point this year. They are on runs of 13-7 overall dating back to last season, 9-4 at home and 36-16 on Thursdays. Minnesota is just 1-4 in Slowey’s last five road starts and 2-5 when he starts as an underdog.
I’m looking for big things from Pineiro this season. He loves pitching in the A.L. West and he’ll deliver a strong season for the Angels. Lay the juice and go with the Angels tonight.
4♦ L.A. ANGELS