Jeff Benton
Back on the free-play winning track Wednesday as the Yankees got the job done in 10 innings at Boston, cashing as a +130 underdog. That’s now 17 of 19 winning comp plays, including eight of the last nine, and I’m also on runs of 56-24-2 and 37-14-2 with plays that I’m giving away!
For Thursday, it’s back to the baseball diamond and I’ll take a shot with the Orioles as a big ‘dog at Tampa Bay in the finale of a three-game series. By all rights, Baltimore should be up 2-0 in this series. After blowing a 3-2 ninth-inning lead and losing 4-3 on Tuesday, the O’s jumped out to a 2-0 lead on Wednesday and again lost 4-3, leaving the tying run on third base in the top of the ninth.
Tonight, Baltimore sends young phenom Brian Matusz to the mound. The highly-touted prospect made his major-league debut last summer and while he didn’t wow anyone, he certainly proved he belonged, going 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA in eight starts, including an 8-7 win in his only start against the Rays (in Tampa Bay).
Most encouraging for Baltimore fans is the fact Matusz was at his strongest at the end of last season, going 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his final three starts. The last one was a 7-3 victory at Yankee Stadium in which he held the mighty Bronx Bombers to a run on four hits in seven innings. The southpaw carried things over to this spring, as he posted a 2.59 ERA in the exhibition campaign, recording 21 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings. That strong spring is one of the reasons Matusz entered this season as a contender for A.L. Rookie of the Year.
One other reason to like the Orioles (especially at this price): They roughed up Tampa Bay starter Jeff Neimann last year. The rookie right-hander faced Baltimore seven times (six starts) and gave up 22 runs on 49 hits (five home runs) and 14 walks in 33 2/3 innings – that’s a 5.88 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP. Against every other team, Niemann’s ERA was 3.14!
Bottom line: With a quality hurler like Matusz on the mound facing a Tampa offense that is off to a slow start, it’s well worth the risk to make a small play on Baltimore to avoid the sweep, especially with the way Neimann struggled against the O’s in 2009 and especially given this kind of take-back.
2♦ BALTIMORE ORIOLES
JR ODonnell
KAN (-120) vs DET
Let's fade the D Train, D Willis BOUNCES as he tries to get back to respectable vs these pesky KC Royals who look to close out the series with a W.B Bannister owns a a nice 4-1 mark vs the Tigers. The Royals have played some good bases to start and Jr O will back the Royals 1 of our 2010 PLAY ON teams today.
Larry Ness
SAC -5.5 vs LAC
Sacramento owns a five-game losing skid at home and has lost eight in a row overall. The good news is the Clippers are in town. The Kings have won 42 of 52 against the Clippers at home since the franchise relocated from Kansas City to Sacramento following the 1984-85 season, including a 38-7 here at Arco. In Evans (20.0-5.3-5.8) and Udrih (12.9-4.6 APG) the Kings own two quality PGs plus the team's frontcourt is pretty solid. The 6-11 Thompson (12.4-8.3) has played very well in his second season, as has the 7-1 Hawes (10.0-6.1) in his third year (Hawes will likely miss this game). Casspi (10.4-4.5), the 6-9 rookie from Israel, has been a great addition and with Landry coming from Houston in a trade (18.0-6.5 in 24 games with the Kings), Sacramento owns two quality forwards. The Clippers 'limp' in with a six-game losing streak and an 8-32 SU road mark. Not much is new for the Clippers, as the NBA's overall No. 1 pick (Blake Griffin), never made it on the court this year (so what else is new?). Kaman (18.3-9.4) has stayed healthy and played well plus Gordon (16.8) and Davis (15.2-6.0 APG) comprise a quality backcourt. Still, the Clippers remain the Clippers. I like a lot of the players on the Kings and would be surprised if the team didn't greatly improve next season. As for this game, the Clippers play the perfect foil and the Kings end their losing streak with "room to spare!" Lay the points.
Sac Lawson
DET (+100) vs KAN
There really isn't very many players on that Detroit roster that have seen Brian Bannister, but of the few that have seen him a couple times there has been some success. Johnny Damon absolutely owns Bannister, Cabrera has had a couple home runs in 11 AB's, and Carlos Guillen has also had some solid success (although he's nursing a bad hamstring, and his presence is a ??). Don't get me wrong, I realize Bannister was money early on last year, and I realize that he's much better at home than on the road (especially in day games), and I definitely note the struggles that the D-Train has had over the last few years. All of that has to make you wonder why this line opened up so low in the first place, and continues to move in Detroit's favor....
Don't get me wrong, I'm always nervous backing Dontrelle, but just so we're clear.. Bannister has had outings just as bad as Willis has over the last couple years. Both of these guys are a crap shoot, we really don't know what we're going to get. But being able to grab the better batting lineup with a much better bullpen (especially since Soria most likely will not pitch tonight for the Royals seeing as he went 2 last night) at EVEN money is just too hard to pass up. I see no edge for either starter, but something about this line tells me that Willis' solid spring will carry over. This is fantastic value on the Detroit side with a line that is begging for KC action, and continues to move down to entice even further.
TOR (+135) vs TEX
I see Texas is trying a little Ryan Dempster move here. The Rangers go to the bullpen and bring their setup/part-time closer to the starting rotation. CJ Wilson going for, I believe, his first major league start. I gotta say... It took Dempster a while to handle the transition, and I expect it'll take Wilson a similar amount of time. It's a whole different scenario when guys get to see you twice than it is when you're only facing a lineup once through. CJ Wilson has solid stuff, don't get me wrong, but he's going to have to learn to save his arm a bit, and change up his approach each time he faces a guy. It's a lot to ask to make a guy facing a transition like that a favorite, especially against a guy in Ricky Romero who is very close to being an absolute STUD.
I'm 100% not sold on the Toronto lineup this season, I think they'll be one of the worst teams in the majors, actually. But with that being said, I do really like Romero. The guy faltered a bit last year, and showed sign of inconsistency, especially on the road. But as for tonight, a guy who is the future ace of that staff facing up against a guy making his first start out of the bullpen.... +135 is true value, and way too solid to pass up. Take it for a unit!
CWS (-140) vs CLE
How often does a team get more runs than hits and still come extremely close to winning? The Sox were truly dismal last night scoring 3 runs on just 2 hits, and doing nothing at the plate but take advantage of Fausto's lack of control (6 walks).
As for tonight.. we've got a guy in Gavin Floyd, who I think has a major upside, and is absolutely money at home, pitching for the Sox. I try and find a way to back Floyd every time he's on the mound, because I believe his stuff is that good... Really, other than Peralta and Choo, Floyd has handled this Cleveland lineup quite well throughout his career, and you give me that along with the 2.6 ERA he shelled out at home last season, and I'm pretty confident we've got ourselves the recipe for a solid start.
On the other side, Masterson is a guy that I'm not too sold on. He's fantastic against righties, but he hasn't proven that he can get lefties out with any consistency whatsoever. The Sox have guys like Teahen, Pierzynski, Pierre, and Kotsay that all bat on the left side and can really give Masterson issues (both with power and contact). Don't get me wrong, you get Masterson up against a right hand dominated lineup and I'd be very nervous, but the Sox signed some lefties in the offseason, and that will really be key for this matchup.
I was extremely surprised at the bullpen from the Indians last night, but quite frankly, they caught the Sox on a terrible evening with cold temperatures certainly not favoring the batter. Tonight, I still think we have a huge bullpen advantage with the Sox over the Indians, and as i mentioned above, I see a solid Starting Pitcher advantage as well. At -140, I think we've got value.
EZWINNERS
Denver Nuggets -2.5
The Nuggets still have a lot to play for as the NBA regular season comes to an end. Denver is in a battle with Dallas, Utah and Phoenix for the number two seed in the Western Conference playoffs and they are starting to play well again as the Nuggets are currently on a three game winning streak and are 2-1 against the spread in those games. The Lakers don't have much to play for as they have already wrapped up the number one seed in the west and they are not playing very well right now. Los Angeles has dropped three out of four game straight up and against the spread, including Sunday’s 100-81 home loss to the Spurs. The Nuggets are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven home games against a team with a winning road record and I expect that to continue here. Lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +1.18 over L.A. ANGELS
Kevin Slowey went 10-3 last season and that was one of the major’s most misleading W/L records. He finished the year with a 4.86 ERA and a BAA of .309. It’s just one of those unexplainable things in that he did not pitch well, received a ton of run support and lost just three games in 16 starts. However, there is still a lot to like about Slowey and we’ll start with the fact that he’s a year older, worked tremendously hard in the off-season and subsequently had a terrific spring. In fact, his spring ERA was 1.95 after allowing just six runs in 27.2 innings of work. Half of those six runs were in his final spring start when he was ready and raring to go for the season to begin. It’s also worth noting that Slowey is a guy who throws strikes and anyone that watches this game closely knows the best pitch in baseball is still “strike one”. He walked just 15 guys all of last season in 90 innings and this past spring he stayed true to form, walking just four guys while whiffing 20. Joel Pineiro benefited from playing in St. Louis under the tutelage of the best pitching coach this league has even known, Dave Duncan. Now he’ll leave the NL and head over to the AL, a league he’s familiar with but had very little success. In fact, Pineiro has very little success anywhere. He’s had one good year over the last eight. He puts the ball in play and that’s evident in his career WHIP, which stands at 1.34 and that’s for a guy that doesn’t walk many. What it reveals, however, is that Pineiro gives up a ton of hits. His career BAA is .278 and that’s after pitching six years in Seattle, one of the best pitching parks in the majors. The Twins have already gone yard six times this season, which is tops in the majors and there’s no reason whatsoever that they shouldn’t get to Pineiro. Play: Minnesota +1.18 (Risking 2 units).
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
The Lakers are just 2-4 straight up their last 6 games at Denver. Los Angeles is led by Kobe Bryant and his 27.1 points a game. Pau Gasol scores 17.8 points and 11.2 rebounds a game. Lamar Odom scores 10.7 points a night. The Lakers 102.1 points a game. Los Angeles is 7-15-1 ATS their last 23 games overall and they are 2-6 ATS their last 8 games as dogs of 0.5 to 4.5 points. Denver is led in scoring by Carmelo Anthony and his 28.4 points a game. Point guard Chauncey Billups scores 19.8 points a game. Shooting guard J.R. Smith scores 15.2 points a game. The Nuggets score 106.7 points game. Denver is 7-0 ATS their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and they are 9-3-3 ATS their last 15 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60% PLAY ON DENVER -
Matt Fargo
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Chicago Cubs +178
Early in the season, analysis is going to be very thin as the plays are going to be based on value for the most part. Betting baseball is about finding the value and finding the spots where teams have an advantage over the line and not necessarily over the other team. That may sound strange and against common betting theory but baseball is a completely different betting situation because of the moneyline aspect of it. This game presents excellent value for the Cubs. I do play teams solely trying to avoid a sweep because in baseball, winning and losing streaks are more contagious than in any other sport. This line is about value and since both Chicago and Atlanta are expected to contend in their respective divisions, these two teams are on a fairly equal ground making the underdog worth a hard look. The Cubs go with Randy Wells who was very solid last season as a rookie, going 12-10 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 27 starts. He is feeling very confident as he is coming off a perfect spring where he went 4-0 and he also has confidence against the Braves as he tossed two quality games last season against Atlanta including one performance where he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning before allowing a home run and then a blown save by the bullpen. Last season was his first significant one as far as innings thrown and he tired late in the year so this is the time to ride him. Tommy Hanson lived up to the hype last season and he is the reason this play is not rated higher. He went 11-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.18 WHIP which is pretty spectacular for a rookie pitcher. Now comes the pressure of living up to last season and that will be tougher than actually going through his rookie season. This will be his first ever start against the potent Cubs lineup that has yet to break out. That very could happen tonight. 3* Chicago Cubs
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -150
The Phillies have dominated the first two games of this series, and while I think this game will be closer, the Phillies are still worth a shot at this price. The Phillies are 41-14 in their last 55 meetings with the Nats and 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in Washington. Here's another trend to think about: the Nationals are just 38-107 in their last 145 games following a loss. Kyle Kendrick was beat out by Jamie Moyer for Philly's final rotation spot, but he gets the start today because Joe Blanton is injured. Kendrick was very strong in spring training, posting a 1.46 ERA in nine appearances. The Phillies are 7-3 in his last 10 starts as a road favorite and I expect him to pitch well today to show the organization that he is capable of stepping into the rotation at any time. The Nationals are just 1-6 in Craig Stammen's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. We'll take the Phillies.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +185
I know Tommy Hanson is a talented young starter, but so is Randy Wells. In other words, the Braves are being severely overvalued here today. Wells has had great success against the Braves, posting a 2.08 ERA and a 0.692 WHIP in 2 career starts. In addition, we can't ignore the fact that the Cubs are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a road un
Joseph D'Amico
Cubs/Braves UNDER.
I truly believe Chicago is in for another disappointing season. I know that they traded away some headaches and they are a healthier team, however they still don’t have a “go-to” guy in the lineup, their pitching is spotty, and their outfield will once again cost them games. They face Tommy Hanson. The right-hander was 11-4 overall LY, including an impressive 7-2 home record with a 3.13 ERA. Atlanta’s lineup is geared toward base hits and moving the runners along. Their 16 run output on opening day is a rarity. Chicago has Randy Wells on the bump. The right-hander was 5-5 on the road a season ago with a 2.88 ERA. In his only start against Atlanta, he was 1-0 with a 20.8 ERA. Two solid pitchers and two lackluster lineups tell me that this is an UNDER game. UNDER is 6-1 in these two teams L7 meetings, 3-01- in Wells’ L4 road starts, and 4-0 in Hanson’s L4 home starts. Take the UNDER.
Nelly
Toronto + over Texas
C.J. Wilson has enjoyed a nice start to his career as a reliever but he will make his first start since 2005 today. Wilson had strong overall numbers last season but he will face a Toronto offense that has had a great showing through two games. The Blue Jays lost the opening game despite being in position to win the whole way, getting eight hits and four runs early in the game before a couple of late clutch hits saved Texas. Both teams struggled last night with only five hits a piece but the offensive concerns should be far greater on the side of the Rangers, playing at home and getting very little production from the big names in the lineup. Rich Harden didn’t make it out of the fourth inning last night so the Rangers bullpen has been severely taxed heading into tonight's game, a bad sign with an inexperienced starter who will be closely monitored. Ricky Romero had a very solid year for the Blue Jays last season and if he can keep his walk numbers down he will be very successful in this league. Romero also had one of the highest BABIP averages of any regular AL starter last season, suggesting his numbers should be even stronger with normalized results this season. Texas is not well suited to handle left-handed pitching including hitting .143 so far this season against southpaws and the Blue Jays should have the edge in this rubber match after splitting the first two games. The value on Toronto today is exceptional as Romero is a much better proven starter than Wilson and the Blue Jays have shown much more on offense through two games despite some dire projections for the club.
John Ryan
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Los Angeles Lakers +2
3* graded play on the Lakers as they take on Denver set to start at 10:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Lakers will win this game. Denver is obviously a strong team, but they do not possess a strong defensive scheme. The Lakres have onde very well against similar type teams noting they are 33-12 ATS when facing teams allowing 99+ points per game. in so-called BIG Games where the line projects a tightly contested event Denver is just 3-11 ATS. After winning 7 straight games, the Lakers have gone a terrible 2-4 streak. However, supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 96-62 making 34.3 units versus the money line since 1996. Play on road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and is a well rested team playing 4 or less games in 10 days. Take the Lakers.
Hollywood Sports
Florida Marlins at New York Mets
Prediction: Over
Take Over the the Total in the game between the Florida Marlins and the New York Mets. The Mets were 12th in the National League last season averaging 4.1 runs per game -- but they opened this season with 13 runs in their first two games. The addition of slugger Jason Bay in the middle of the lineup should help to improve this offense. Florida averaged 4.8 runs per game which put them 5th in the NL -- and the Marlins got their bats out last night in their 7-6 win over New York. Now the Marlins send out lefty Nate Robertson who they acquired from Detroit near the end of spring training. Robertson had a rough 5.44 ERA with an ugly 1.75 WHIP last season. The Mets' send out their own lefty in Jonathan Niese who had a 4.21 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP before his suffering a season-ending injury. The Over was 4-1-1 in the Mets last six games that Niese started last year. And the Over is 7-3-1 in the Marlins last ten road games when facing a left-handed starter. Play Over the Total in Thursday's game between the Marlins and the Mets while listing both pitchers.
Dave Price
1 Unit on L.A. Angels -121
After back-to-back losses to the Twins, look for the Angels to bounce back strong tonight. The Angels are 41-15 when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses against an opponent over the last 3 seasons. They are also 21-7 after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. Even though the Twins have won a couple, they are still just 3-7 in the last 10 meetings with the Angels and only 11-24 in their last 35 road meetings with the Angels. Joel Pineiro went 15-12 with a 3.49 ERA last season with St. Louis and had a solid spring with the Angels, going 4-0 with a 4.38 ERA in six starts. Look for him to begin his career with the Angels in the win column.