Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 10,2011

DUNKEL INDEX

LA Lakers at Boston
The Lakers look to take advantage of a Boston team that is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games as a favorite from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Los Angeles is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+3)

Game 501-502: LA Lakers at Boston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 121.329; Boston 120.466
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 3; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+3); Over

Game 503-504: Golden State at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 117.773; Phoenix 125.450
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 216
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-5 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: Dallas at Denver (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 120.047; Denver 120.340
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 217
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NHL

Los Angeles at Pittsburgh
The Kings look to build on their 5-2-1 record in their last 8 games in Pittsburgh. Los Angeles is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+110)

Game 1-2: Los Angeles at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.265; Pittsburgh 11.173
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+110); Under

Game 3-4: Carolina at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.876; Philadelphia 12.249
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Over

Game 5-6: New Jersey at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.114; Toronto 11.388
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+105); Over

Game 7-8: NY Islanders at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.415; Montreal 11.590
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 9-10: Buffalo at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.167; Florida 11.764
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-105); Under

Marc Lawrence

Illinois @ Minnesota
PICK: Illinois

There’s no doubt the hiring of Tubby Smith has significantly elevated the Golden Gophers’ basketball fortunes. Smith is three-for-three in 20-win seasons since arriving in Minneapolis and with his squad standing 16-5 at press time, Tubs appears to have a fourth 20-win campaign salted away. However, getting a victory over Bruce Weber’s Illini tonight doesn’t exactly fall into the category of ‘lock.’ Illinois has owned this series, going 21-2 SU and 17-6 ATS, and Chief Illiniwek’s namesakes have been favored in 21 of the last 22 meetings (the only time they took points, the Illini won the game outright). Much like Syracuse, Illinois suffered through a tough January and fell out of the Top 25 for the first time all year before blistering Penn State at Champaign, 68-51. Now they catch Minnesota off a disappointing revenger against unbeaten and top-ranked Ohio State, and the Illini are 6-1 ATS versus the Gophers when playing with revenge. Look for the visitors get even for last season’s 62-60 home loss to Tubby. Gophers go from Golden to continuing Foldin’. We recommend a 1-unit play on Illinois.

Jim Feist

Mavs at Nuggets
Play: Under

Dallas has turned into a terrific defensive team this season with the addition of Tyson Chandler up front, 7th in the NBA in scoring allowed. The under is 4-1 in Mavericks last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while the under is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 vs. the Western Conference. We think of offense when these teams meet, but the face is the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the Mavs and Nuggets. Play the Mavs and Nuggets Under the total.

Brent Brooks

Eastern Ill. +15.5

EIU isn't as bad as they've been playing over the last week or two. They travel to play Morehead and while this is a revenge spot for Faried and company, I see this as a very closely played game until the last few minutes of the second half. For a heated rivalry this line is too high.

UC Irvine -3

The Anteaters play with more energy and at a faster pace at home. They will be able to dictate the nature of the game to the Mustangs here. Grabbing UCI.

Matt Fargo

Saint Marys CA vs. Santa Clara
Play: Santa Clara +6

Despite losing some key personnel from last season, St. Mary’s has simply reloaded and is currently 8-1 and in first place in the West Coast Conference. The Gaels are coming off a home sweep last weekend against Pepperdine and Loyola-Marymount but it was far from easy as the wins were by eight and nine points but they were favored by 21 and 16.5 points respectively. Prior to that St. Mary’s suffered its first conference loss of the season at Portland which followed a loss at Vanderbilt and a three-point win at Gonzaga. Santa Clara is a very respectable 5-3 in the conference and I say respectable because two of those losses came against San Francisco by six and seven points and to be frank, neither of those defeats should have taken place. The only other West Coast Conference loss came against tonight’s opponent in Moraga as the Broncos were roughed up by 25 points in a game they were never in. That sets up a great revenge spot here for Santa Clara which will be out for some payback. Santa Clara is 10-4 on its home floor this season and over the last few years, Santa Clara has battled the Gaels very well on the Leavey Center floor. The Broncos have covered five straight including two outright wins as underdogs. Last season the Broncos lost by eight points at home as 12.5-point underdogs and while we are not getting that big of a number, the gap between these two teams has closed considerably. Santa Clara was six games worse, including four games in the conference, at this point a season ago. Santa Clara is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 home games against teams averaging 77 or more ppg including a 6-0 ATS record in the second half of the season. The Broncos are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 75 or more points. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss while St. Mary’s is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 3* Santa Clara Broncos

Tom Freese

Pepperdine at Portland
Prediction: Portland

Pepperdine is 10-16 this year. The Waves are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games off a straight up win. Pepperdine is 4-12-1 ATS their last 17 games following an ATS WIN. Portland is 17-7 this year. The Pilots are 8-3-1 ATS their last 12 games vs. a team with a win percentage of under 40%. The Pilots are 18-7-1 ATS their last 23 games vs. a team with a losing record. Portland is 5-0-1 ATS their last 6 meetings with the Waves.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Santa Clara +6

As if seeing its 5-game winning streak come to an end isn't enough motivation, Santa Clara's embarrassing 84-59 loss at St. Mary's last month should certainly fuel the fire. Under coach Keating, Santa Clara has been at its best at home when matched up against quality opponents. In fact, under Keating the Broncos are a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games, after 15-plus games into the season, versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8-plus points/game. They are playing these teams to a standstill with an average score of 70.9 to 70.9. Also under Keating, the Broncs are an unbeaten 6-0 ATS in home games, after 15-plus games into the season, versus good offensive teams scoring 77-plus points/game. Santa Clara is winning these games by an average score of 74.2 to 73.8. In addition, the Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Santa Clara. Take the points tonight as Santa Clara takes St. Mary's right down to the wire.

Rob Vinciletti

Wisc Green Bay vs. Illinois Chicago
Play: Wisc Green Bay -2

WI Green Bay has solid angles on their side in this one. They are 26-6 vs losing teams the past few years, 5-1 ats after allowing 80 or more points, 13-3 ats vs teams who score 65 or less and have covered 4 of 5 as road favorites of 3 or less the last 3 years. Their opponent tonight Illinois Chicago is 1-10 off a loss, 5-22 with revenge and has lost 12 of 13 in conference play. In the first meeting they lost by 24 points. They may get a little closer here but not that much closer. Take Wisconsin Green Bay to get the win and cover.

Info Plays

3* Oregon +9

Reasons why Oregon will cover:

1) Play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Oregon) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog, as its 45-14 over the last 5 seasons.

2) Oregon has covered the spread in five straight games, and simply aren't getting the respect they deserve against UCLA. The Bruins are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

3) Oregon is 41-22 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins since 1997, and are 7-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog this season.

Steve Janus

2* Florida State -1

Getting the Seminoles at -1 is an absolute steal on the college hardwood. Florida State is 15-5 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less since 1997. The Seminoles got embarrassed in their last game on the road, losing 69-89, but this has been a great spot to jump on the Seminoles, as they are 8-1 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The average score in those games was Florida State 71.6, Opponent 62.4.

Florida State has also had a lot of success against the Yellow Jackets. The Seminoles have won four straight overall, and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at Georgia Tech.

Jack Jones

St. John's +2

The St. John's Red Storm have played one of the toughest schedules in the country. In fact, according to the Pomeroy Rankings it has been the fifth-toughest in the land. This team played a stretch of eight straight games against ranked opponents which concluded with a 93-78 win over the Duke Blue Devils. In fact, the Red Storm have now beaten three teams ranked inside the Top 15 at home this season, also taking down Notre Dame and Georgetown. The Red Storm have been solid at home all year, going 8-3 while allowing just 63.2 PPG.

The biggest reason they have been so much better at home is their aggressiveness. St. John's has averaged 12.6 free-throw attempts in five road games in 2011, while getting to the line an average of 27.0 times in six home contests in that span. The Red Storm own an 11-2 record when they attempt 21 or more free throws, and I fully expect them to get back to being aggressive tonight. It's firmly implanted in their head that that's what they need to do after attempting just 7 shots from the charity stripe compared to 41 free throw attempts from UCLA last time out. In 11 home games this year, the Red Storm only have one loss by more than two points. Bet St. John's Thursday.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Michigan State Spartans -6

After 9 consecutive ATS losses, look for Sparty to help its backers out tonight. Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing road defeats, and a loss at Penn State last month, expect to see the most inspired effort from these Spartans in a long while. The Spartans have won 9 of the last 10 at home in this series by an average score of 77 to 60. Also, the Nittany Lions are a dismal 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. It also can't be ignored that Michigan State is 6-0 ATS all-time under Izzo in home games if they have lost 4 of their last 5 games. They are winning by an average score of 69.7 to 53.7 in this situation. I also like the fact that State is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 when looking to avenge a same season loss. It is winning these games by an average of 7.8 points. Take Michigan State.

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles +101 over PITTSBURGH

This one is pretty much a no-brainer, as the Penguins have more casualties than a Quentin Tarantino movie. Sid the Kid remains out, as does Evgeni Malkin and Mark Letustu. Joining that extreme talent on the rack is Chris Kunitz and the suspended Matt Cooke. Combined that group of five has collected 185 points this season. Right now the Pens would have trouble beating Edmonton, the Islanders and every other team in the league. Pittsburgh’s chance of beating a Kings team that has woke up and is playing outstanding is slim at best. L.A. has won five of six and its only loss over that stretch came in OT at Minnesota. During their current run the Kings have beaten some of the hottest teams in the business in the Sharks (San Jose’s only loss in its last nine), the Flames (Calgary’s only loss in its last nine) and Boston club that is in the midst of an 11-3 run. If you make one wager today, this should be it because the Kings should probably be about –130 favorite. Of course anything can happen but this is value at its best. Get on it early because it’s not going to be long before you’ll be laying a small tag. Play: Los Angeles +101 (Risking 2.5 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

ST. JOHN’S +109 over Connecticut

These Big East home pups have been pure gold this season and this one has a great chance to cash too. The Johnny’s struggle on the road, but get them in their own barn and it’s like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. The Red Storm is 8-3 at home with double-digit wins over Northwestern, West Virginia, Duke and Notre Dame. They also have a win over the Hoyas at MSG. The Johnny’s are 5-5 in the conference and they’re just a single game back of the Huskies. UConn is just 6-4 in the conference and has dropped two of three. They needed a serious rally to beat Seton Hall on Saturday, as they trailed by 10 with eight minutes to go. They eventually won by a deuce to avoid a three-game losing streak. The Huskies are beating the lower-tier teams in the Big East but they’re having trouble with the rest. They’ve lost to Louisville, Pitt, Notre Dame and Syracuse while beating the likes of Marquette, Seton Hall, Providence, South Florida (in OT) and DePaul. They have one win against a ranked Big-East opponent when they beat Nova by two. Play: #508 St. John’s +109 (Risking 2 units).

GEORGIA TECH +109 over Florida St.

Let’s assume for a moment that Yellow Jackets G-F Brian Oliver was not injured. The Seminoles would probably be the exact same price here, that being a small 1½-point favorite. Oliver wasn’t having a great year by any stretch but he was still the team’s third option and was averaging just over 10 a game. The Jackets are just 10-12 overall and 3-6 in the conference and they’ve dropped three in a row and four of their last five. FSU is 16-7 overall and third in the conference behind North Carolina and Duke. Thing is, the Seminoles have dropped four of their last five on the road (including a loss at Alabama) with only win over that stretch coming against the Hurricanes by two. Florida State’s last two road games were blowout losses at North Carolina by 20, and at Clemson by 18. This is not a team you want to play on the road right now. They don’t shoot particularly well, nor do they take care of the rock and that makes winning on the road a daunting task at best. When a player goes down, like in the case of Brian Oliver, it opens the door for others to step in and show what they can do. Expect a strong effort from Tech tonight in a game they absolutely have a great chance to win. Play: #510 Georgia Tech +109 (Risking 2 units).

VANDERBILT –6½ over Alabama

We usually find some value in the dogs but in this case we find an underlay on the Commodores. What’s interesting is that the Tide is 7-1 in the conference while the Commodores are just 4-4. Thing is, the Tide resides in the West of the SEC and that group features a whole bunch of nobodies. Alabama has some skewed stats because of a weak schedule and outside of a two-point win over Kentucky they’ve lost to every other good team they’ve played. On the road, against its last ranked opponent, the Crimson Tide lost by 18. They really have a lot of wins against garbage squads that include the likes of Toledo, Pepperdine, Lipscomb, Southeastern Louisiana, Auburn, LSU, South Alabama and the list goes on. The Commodores are battle tested and they’re good. At Mizzou earlier in the year they lost in OT. They have home wins over #8 North Carolina and #21 St. Mary’s, the latter by 19. Vandy is coming off a four-point OT at #23 Florida St followed by an 18-point blowout win over the Gamecocks. They do everything better than the Tide and should have no trouble whatsoever of putting this team away early and staying there. Play: #532 Vanderbilt –6½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).