Vernon Croy
New Orleans at Oklahoma City
Play: Oklahoma City -11.5
The Thunder are the superior overall team here Thursday night and I look for them to pull off a dominant win to end the first half of the season. The Thunder average the second most points in the NBA at 109.9 PPG and the second most offensive rebounds in the NBA.The Thunder are also one of the better defensive teams in the NBA and there are too many mismatches for the Pelicans to keep this game close Thursday night. Play Oklahoma City ATS with confidence.
Jim Feist
Pelicans vs. Thunder
Play: Pelicans +11½
The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Northwest division, as well as 4-1 ATS playing on no days rest. They head to Oklahoma City, on a 2-6-1 spread run. Oklahoma City is home after a two-game trip and playing six of the last eight away. The Thunder are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games playing on 2 days rest, plus 4-13 ATS against a team with a losing straight up record. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Pelicans are 6-2 ATS at Oklahoma City.
Art Aronson
Stars vs. Blackhawks
Play: Over 5½
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Recent history: Both teams are coming off some pretty high-scoring affairs: Chicago lost to San Jose 2-0 last time out, but previous to that had won 5-4 in OT at Arizona, before hammering the Stars 5-1 in Dallas. The visitors will be looking to avenge that loss, note the Dallas has seen the total go OVER the number in four straight games after having played to four straight UNDERs.
Antti Niemi: The former Blackhawks goaltender has a deplorable 4.02 GAA in losing seven consecutive starts in Chicago.
ATS statistics: Note that Dallas has seen the total go OVER the number in in six of ten this season in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent, while Chicago has seen the total sail above the posted number in nine of 16 vs. teams with winning records.
The bottom line: A couple of the best in the West going head to head in this one, it was a high-scoring shootout when they got together last week and all signs do indeed point to another goal-fest; consider a second look at the OVER in this one.
Ben Burns
Canisius vs. Siena
Pick: Canisius
Its hard to get any hotter than Ben Burns is right now. Burns heads into Wednesday's action with a PERFECT 7-0 RECORD over his L7 NBA picks & a 12-1 RECORD over his last 13 basketball plays overall. Throw in his Super Bowl winners and he's an INCREDIBLE 20-2 his L22, in all sports. Now, he GOES FOR THE JUGULAR w/ his #1 GAME OF THE WEEK. Go get it!
Possible lookahead spot for the Saints here. Regularly two of the top teams in the Metro Atlantic Conference, Siena and Iona have long been rivals. Last season, Iona won all three meetings. The Gaels took both regular season meetings and then knocked the Saints out of the MAAC Tournament.
Saturday will be this season's first meeting between Iona and Siena and its a game which the Saints have had circled. Tonight, Siena will host Canisius. Considering that the Saints already beat the Golden Griffins by 21 points, at Canisius, it should be easy to look ahead to Saturday's showdown.
Note that Siena lost against Marist last time out, the worst team in the conference.
Canisisus snapped a losing streak last time out and will be looking for some redemption after getting embarrassed earlier. Take a look at the Golden Griffins as a road underdog on Thursday.
DAVE COKIN
UCONN VS. TEMPLE
PLAY: UCONN -4
I know going in this doesn’t figure to be easy. I don’t think there’s much question that Connecticut is stronger than Temple. But this Owls team has proven to be very feisty at times this season, especially when cast in the role of host. The Owls have already knocked off Cincinnati, SMU and Tulsa on this court, and all three of those schools power rate higher than Temple does.
But UConn figures to be arriving in Philadelphia with some revenge on its mind. The Huskies were upset at home by this Temple squad, in what had to be one of the ugliest games I’ve seen this season. Connecticut endured a horrible shooting night in that 55-53 loss. Yet, they nearly still the win thanks to some horrendous foul shooting by the Owls.
This figures to be another defensive struggle, as the stop units for both schools are solid. But the Huskies are the better side on that count, and they’re also the more efficient team offensively. That’s pretty big for me, as I really like the revenge angle when the team I’m looking to back wins the stat battle on both ends of the court.
Temple will be fired up to get the sweep against the Huskies and when it comes to prepping his team for a big game, Fran Dunphy is not a coach I’m thrilled with trying to beat. The game is also huge for the Owls as far as the conference race is concerned. With SMU ineligible for the post-season, it’s Temple that currently resides in what amounts to the top spot for league tournament purposes. A win here for the Owls would be enormous.
But scheduling and standing dynamics aside, I still give the most weight to the revenge with the better team angle, and the stats are a very good fit. I don’t expect this to be a picnic for the Huskies. But in the end I like UConn to get the job done by enough to cover the road chalk impost.
Ken Thomson
Detroit -2
After a brutal 115-108 overtime loss at Green Bay the Titans circled tonight's game with payback intentions big time. Detroit is good enough to take out the Phoenix at home as UW-Green Bay just got blistered by 19 points at Wright State in a similar style payback scenario. Paris Bass had 23 points to lead the Titans in the first meeting while Chris Jenkins & Anton Wilson average another 28 ppg and will be ready to extract revenge vs. Green Bay. I like the Titans between 6-12 points in this one!
La.-Monroe +3
Majok Deng shot only 4 of 11 from the floor in the first meeting between these squads. Deng leads ULM in scoring and will be ready to avenge the one point loss ( 58-57 ) in Little Rock back in January. The Trojans of Little Rock are having a season to remember. Louisiana Monroe best be concentrating on evening up the season series and the Warhawks are good enough to win this game straight up. That's what I'm feeling, a Louisiana-Monroe straight up win over UALR.
Eastern Wash. -6.5
Eastern Washington has won 4 in a row and 7 of last 9 games. The Eagles are (5-0) at home inside Big Sky play with one win by 7 points and the other 4 by double digits. The first meeting in Grand Forks,ND was nip and tuck and tied at 62 before North Dakota took a 3 point lead and was able to close it out by hitting 8 free throws inside the final two minutes. That game was the first of the season for EWU's Julian Harrell who played only 10 minutes and scored only two points. Harrell is now part of this high flying Eagles offense and should contribute at home on Thursday night. Venky Jois, Austin McBroom, Felix Von Hofe & Bogdan Bliznyuk are the other four that are making EWU feel they have a shot to win the Big Sky Tournament. They need to close out the Conference Season strong and hold service on home court and I expect them to beat North Dakota by double digits.
Marc Lawrence
Southern Miss +10½
Edges - Golden Eagles 11-3 ATS in this series when off a loss of 5 or more points; and 3-0 ATS home off BB losses this season. Blazers: 1-5 ATS off SUATS win versus foe off a loss this season. With UAB 0-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite in games off a win of 12 or more points, we recommend a 1* play on Southern Mississippi.
Mike Lundin
Iowa vs. Indiana
Play: Iowa +2
This looks like a good spot to back the Iowa Hawkeyes on the road at Indiana Hoosiers Thursday night. Iowa is sitting top of the Big 10 standings and has won 12 of its last 13 games and three in a row. It's 4-1 ATS in its last five overall and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with winning records. The Hawkeyes' won 77-63 at Indiana in the last meeting on March 3 last year to end a three-game skid in the series. They've covered the spread in 16 of the last 21 meetings overall and are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings at Indiana. The Hoosiers were off a pair of wins before falling 68-63 at Penn State last Saturday, the same PSU team Iowa had pummeled 73-49 earlier in the week. Iowa has a better defense and a better bench, and I like the Hawkeyes in tonight's Big 10 matchup.
Heath Mac
Green Bay vs. Detroit
Play: Over 186
Here we have a perfect storm of absolutely terrible, barely existent defenses from both sides, combined with potent, high scoring, up and down offenses. As we will often go against the public (a solid long term strategy in itself) our first thought when looking at this ridiculously high total was to jump all over the UNDER. However on closer look, this game will see 200+ points with ease.
Both sides average over 84 ppg and allow over 81 ppg. These figures are impressive, but don’t look particularly remarkable, until you factor in the games both sides play against both lower scoring sides and also strong defensive sides. Last times these sides met, (just 2 weeks ago) saw a whopping 223 points in total, against a total of 181 points, so we’re a little surprised that it has only increased by 5 points for this rematch.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games. The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games at home. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Wisc-Green Bay and OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Wisc-Green Bay.
Bob Harvey
Pelicans vs. Thunder
Play: Under 220½
The Oklahoma City Thunder go for their 16th win in the last 19 games when they host the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Pelicans (19-32, 21-30 ATS) are trying to stay relevant in regards to the postseason. They’ve posted back-to-back wins over Minnesota and Utah Jazz but remain six games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
As per norm, the high-scoring Thunder (39-14, 21-32 ATS) have been paced by All-Stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Durant has scored 20 or more points in 38 consecutive games and is averaging 36.3 points over the past three contests. Westbrook had 43 points, nine rebounds and eight assists when the Thunder recorded a 110-103 victory over the Pelicans on November 18. Oklahoma City ranks second in the NBA in scoring at 109.9 points per game and has topped 100 points in 22 of the past 23 games.
Oklahoma City is 24-5 SU at home with an ATS mark of 14-5 and an 18-11 to the UNDER on the home hardwood. New Orleans has a road record of 6-20 SU, 11-15-1 ATS and 19-6-1 to the UNDER.
The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 7-2 in the Oklahoma City’s last nine games overall. New Orleans is 10-2-1 to the OVER in the past 13.
The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings and 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Oklahoma. However New Orleans is just 1-5 vs. the number in its last six games overall while OKC is 2-7 ATS in its past nine outings.
Jimmy Boyd
Indiana -2½
The Hoosiers come into this game off an ugly 63-68 loss at Penn State, which I believe is a big reason why we are seeing such great value here with Indiana at basically a pick'em at home agains the Hawkeyes. Iowa has been one of the biggest surprises in the country this season, but this is no easy task for Iowa on the road against a Hoosiers team that is a perfect 13-0 at home this season.
All 4 of Iowa's losses have come on the road, including a recent loss on 1/28 at Maryland. The Hawkeyes lost 68-74 to the Terrapins as a 5.5-point underdog, yet are only a 2.5-point dog on the road against the Hoosiers. That speaks volumes to the value we are getting with Indiana, who simply doesn't get the respect they deserve.
The Hoosiers are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 home games with a line of +3 to -3, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after 15+ games against a top caliber team that is outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after 15+ games against strong offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game.
Stephen Nover
Columbus +120
The Blue Jackets are playing better, have a hot goalie and catch the Ducks playing for the third time in four days. It's also a flat spot for Anaheim. The Ducks are playing in their third of a season-high seven straight road games. They have a much bigger road contest on Saturday against the Blackhawks.
Columbus goalie Joonas Korpisalo is 6-1-1 with a 1.84 GAA in his last eight starts. The Blue Jackets haven't given up more than two goals in regulation during any of their last six games going 4-2. Their defense has improved since the pairing of Seth Jones with Ryan Murray.
The Blue Jackets aren't likely to make the playoffs, but they have been an above .500 team at 21-20-6 since a disastrous 0-8 start.
Alex Smith
Dallas at Chicago
Play: Under 5.5
Two of the best in the Western Conference clash together in the Windy City tonight as the Central Division-leading Chicago Blackhawks host the Dallas Stars. These two clubs played last Saturday in Dallas with the Blackhawks blowing out the Stars 5-1. Note that Chicago was actually out-shot 37-26. Chicago has won six of the last 10 meetings but aside from Saturday's game, these clubs have played each other tight in some high-scoring battles. The over has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings with an average of six goals per game. Dallas has gone 4-0 O/U in their last four games after a string of four straight unders while Chicago has gone 7-8-3 O/U in 18 division contests this year and 3-5-2 O/U in their last 10. The Stars were very vocal about how they were embarrassed by Saturday’s showing and after a solid 4-3 OT win on Tuesday in Minnesota, I expect more emphasis on the defensive end. The Hawks will also be without rookie sensation Artemi Panerin, who has been dealing with the flu. They could have another tough time scoring after being shutout -- their third time in eight games -- by San Jose 2-0 on Tuesday. Good situation for a lower scoring affair.
Sleepyj
Milwaukee -1
It's no secret the Bucks haven;t won games this year..Thing about this team is they have the talent to get it done..Some players are now shuffling in and out of the starting lineup...It will send a message before the trade deadline for sure...Bucks are actually a deep team that i think has the goods to be a playoff team...Washington has some good pieces, but at times they just fail to play defense...They will need to play defense all game to win this one...I haven't seen it all year from the Wizards....Bucks will close this one out at home tonight and go into the break with something to build on for the 2nd half of the season..My line for this game was Milwaukee -4..So taking -1 at home to end the 1st half looks like value to me...We roll with the Bucks tonight !!
Brian Hay
NC-Greensboro -5
The NC Spartans are averaging 70.9 points on 43 percent shooting and allowing 76 points on 46.9 percent shooting. The Spartans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. The VMI Keydets are on a six-game losing streak. VMI is averaging 62.5 points on 38.3 percent shooting and allowing 75.6 points on 46.6 percent shooting. The Keydets have lost 10 of their last 16 home games and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. VMI is a horrible 1-11 in a very weak Southern Conference this season. The Keydets have already lost to Greensboro by 17 points this season. Greensboro is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. VMI is 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games overall.