Matt Fargo
Connecticut vs. Temple
Play: Temple +4
This is a bit of a surprising line as Temple is a significant home underdog despite possessing a better conference record than Connecticut. The Owls have won three straight games and six of their last seven including all three at home and against some stiff competition in Cincinnati, SMU and Tulsa. Overall, they are 7-2 at home with the one stinging defeat coming against St. Joes by a point in overtime. Two of three conference losses by Temple have been by two and three points. Connecticut has been great on the road this season which is playing into this line. The Huskies have lost only once this season on the highway which came at Tulsa so they have not been and will not be an easy out here. But on the flip side, this will be one of the toughest stops for Connecticut as this is one of the best home courts in recent years as Temple is 99-23 (.811) at home since the start of the 2007-08 campaign. The Huskies are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS loss while the Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Tony Stoffo
Oregon State vs. Stanford
Play: Over 137
Oregon State’s rebounding margin of minus-7.5 in conference games is last in the Pac-12. The Beavers were outrebounded 46-29 in a 78-72 loss to the Cardinal on Jan. 6. Oregon State forward Daniel Gomis is expected to miss his third straight game due to a shin stress fracture. The Over is 7-0 in Oregon State's last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 18-8 in last 26 overall and 11-5 in the Beavers' last 16 vs. Pacific-12.
Stanford ranks 11th in rebounding in the Pac 12 at minus-5.9. Forward Michael Humphrey has averaged 9.7 points and 6.2 rebounds in his last 13 games. He played just two minutes in last Saturday’s 76-61 loss to Cal due to a bruised thigh. The Over is 8-0 in Stanford's last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 4-1 in last 5 games following a straight up loss and 4-1 in the Cardinals' last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Head to Head the Over is 9-0 last 9 meetings.
Brandon Lee
Florida State +3
This books are begging for you to take Syracuse as a 3-point home dog and the public is falling for the trap, as I'm showing close to 70% of the action on the Orange right now. Anytime something looks this obvious, it's a good idea to look to the other side. Florida State is a young and very talented team that is getting better and better as the season progresses. The Seminoles come into this game having won 4 straight, including a dominant 20-point win on the road against Wake Forest last time out. The Orange are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after winning 4 of their last 5 and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing 2 straight games as a home favorite.
Jack Jones
Syracuse -3
We're getting the Syracuse Orange at a very generous price tonight as only 3-point home favorites over the Florida State Seminoles. We'll take advantage and back the Orange, who are playing their best basketball of the season heading in.
Indeed, the Orange are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. They have road wins over Wake Forest and Duke, as well as home wins over VA Tech, GA Tech, Notre Dame and Boston College during this stretch. Their only loss came at Virginia by 8 points.
Syracuse's zone defense has given the Seminoles fits in recent meetings. The Orange won 70-57 at home last season and 74-58 on the road two years ago. Their zone forces Florida State to shoot 3-pointers, which is clearly its weakness.
Florida State is 13-28 ATS in its last 41 games following four or more consecutive wins. The Seminoles are 28-63 ATS in their last 91 after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games coming in. The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Larry Ness
Cal Irvine at Hawaii
Pick: Hawaii
It’s a first-place Big West showdown between 18-3 Hawaii and 18-8 UC-Irvine, both 7-1 in league play. The Rainbow Warriors have thrived under first-year head coach Eran Ganot (returned to Hawaii after spending the last five years as a Saint Mary's assistant). Hawaii’s lost just THREE games, one coming here at home to Oklahoma. UC-Irvine head coach Russell Turner has also done a good job of keeping the 7-6 Mamadou Ndiaye on floor more than 23 minutes per game and it’s resulted in him averaging 12.2 PPG and a career-high 7.0 RPG. PG Nelson (13.0) and Young (8.8-4.3 APG) are a steadying influence in the backcourt plus the 6-10 Best (8.8-4.8) has had his moments for the Anteaters.
However, now that guard Valdes is back healthy (he’s averaged 16.0 PPG the last two games), Hawaii has too much talent for UCI. Valdes (14.3-5.2), Bobbitt (13.0-4.0-5.4) and Smith (7.8) start in the backcourt with Fleming (9.8) coming off the bench. Starting up front is the 6-11 Jankovic (15.3-6.6) and the 6-7 Thomas (8.0-5.0). UCI beat Hawaii all THREE times last year (including the Big West tourney) and ENOUGH is ENOUGH!
Power Sports
Hofstra vs. William & Mary
Pick: Hofstra
At first glance, there doesn't seem like much reason to fade William & Mary tonight as the Tribe have won and covered four straight games (all as favorites) and are 9-2 SU/10-1 ATS their L11 games overall. But sometimes looks can be deceiving & tonight we have a classic case of the revenge angle being overrated. Take the pts.
Like I just said, there has been only one time in the last 11 games where W&M did not cover. That came on January 24th when they were absolutely blasted by Hofstra, 91-63. Despite that lopsided result, there has been virtually no adjustment by the linesmakers, who are clearly expecting the vast majority of bettors to side with the revenge angle in tonight's rematch. They are, but curiously the line is coming DOWN, which is a signal that the so-called "smart money" is backing the dog in this one.
Hofstra comes in off B2B losses, but both were by only three points and the last came in overtime, 98-95 at James Madison. Prior to those two setbacks, the Pride were 8-2 SU in the CAA and in contention for the regular season crown. Sunday was their second narrow loss to JMU this season and, in fact, Hofstra's last three losses have been by a total of 10 points. Consider that two of W&M's last four games came against league worst Delaware, who is 0-12 SU in CAA play. The Tribe's incredible 36-16 ATS run in conference play gets tested here as my recommendation is to take the points.
Nelly
Iowa + over Indiana
Tonight’s game at Assembly Hall will surely feature a lively crowd for a game that for the moment might appear to be critical in determining this season’s Big Ten champion with Indiana 9-2 in league play behind Iowa at 10-1. While Indiana is talented enough to win the Big Ten and to hold serve at home tonight there are some glaring holes in the case for the Hoosiers to be considered one of the top teams in the conference. Indiana’s game tonight will be the first against any of the best four teams in the conference as the 9-2 start has featured no games vs. Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, or Purdue. The final seven games of the season will feature five games vs. those teams and it will be far less of a surprise if the 9-2 league mark settles at around 11-7 compared with the Hoosiers hoisting a conference championship banner. Iowa meanwhile has defeated Michigan State and Purdue twice each. Iowa’s only loss in conference play came in a tight game at Maryland as the team has seven wins away from home on the season and has nine of ten Big Ten wins coming by double-digits as this has been a truly dominant team despite limited national recognition. Indiana has dropped two of the last four games and the Hoosiers have built their statistical resume with three wins vs. the two winless Big Ten teams. Indiana hasn’t lost at home this season but the most impressive win in Bloomington came by one-point over Wisconsin before the Badgers hit their current stride. While this is a huge game for Indiana the current underdog price on the Hawkeyes is very appealing consider the great disparity in quality in the similar conference records.
Kyle Hunter
Hofstra at William & Mary
Play: William & Mary -4
The William & Mary Tribe beat Hofstra three times last year. Hofstra wanted revenge badly in their first matchup and got it with a 28 point blowout win. If you look at the overall picture though, William & Mary has been the better team in the last few weeks. Now, William & Mary will be out for revenge after that terrible showing at Hofstra a few weeks ago. Additionally, look at what has happened to Hofstra in their last two games. They blew an 18 point second half lead against UNC Wilmington (I had Hofstra in that one, so I remember that one well), and then they had a 9 point lead with 3:30 left against James Madison last game and blew it. Hofstra doesn't come in here with a good mindset, and I think William & Mary gets this win and cover.
Wunderdog
Wisconsin Green Bay vs. Detroit
Pick:Wisconsin Green Bay +120
Wisconsin-Green Bay is playing well, winning eight of thirteen. Green Bay is second in the Horizon League in scoring and faces a Detroit team that's on a 3-6 run, including a 91-83 loss to Northern Kentucky as -7.5 chalk. Defense has been the problem, allowing 92, 91, 77, 115, 83, 86 and 92 points in seven of the last nine. After the two teams played a thrilling 115-108 OT game back on Jan. 25 at the Resch Center, the Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix has now won six straight against Detroit. Take Wisconsin-Green Bay on the moneyline.
Dave Price
California Pk
The California Golden Bears want revenge from a tough 65-68 loss at Oregon as 3.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 6. They should have their revenge at home this time around considering the Bears simply do not lose at home. In fact, California is 14-0 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 15.8 points per game. It has gone 5-0 at home in Pac-12 play this season with wins over Colorado by 14, Utah by 13, Arizona State, Arizona and Stanford by 15.
Scott Rickenbach
Connecticut vs. Temple
Play: Temple +4½
Certainly I can understand the affinity for the Huskies in this spot since it is a revenge game for them. However, the Owls are well known for being tough to beat in Philly and Temple is also well known for being tough to match up with because of their unique style of play. That said, sometimes it is a match-up issue that goes well beyond just a revenge angle. In this case, the Owls have the Huskies number and have taken 3 straight in the series and that includes 2 straight at UConn. It's not going to be easy for Connecticut to just flip a switch and come out here and get the win tonight. Temple is tough at home! The Owls have already beaten Tulsa, SMU, and Cincinnati here at home. Also, one of just losses that Temple has at home this season came by just a single point versus St Joseph's. Both the Huskies and the Owls are known for tough defense and it will be hard for Connecticut to build up any significant winning margin in this game...that is, if they even win! The Huskies lost at Tulsa this season and already lost at home to these Owls and to Cincinnati. Their performance against the other top tams in the conference is another reason they should not be trusted as a road favorite here. UConn is on a 2-6 ATS run when playing with home loss revenge. The Owls are 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season.
Harry Bondi
MILWAUKEE (-1.5) over Washington
In last night's Free Game analysis we talked about how a major part of successfully handicapping the NBA comes down to scheduling, and sure enough, we got an easy winner going against the Bulls last night, as a much more focused and rested Atlanta team cruised to a 113-90 victory. Tonight, the Wizards are in a similar bad spot, playing their third-straight road game after having been on the road for an entire week. With a week off coming up, thanks to the All Star break, we don't expect a top effort from Washington tonight, especially since they got a "W" Tuesday night in New York. Meanwhile, the Bucks have been home since Feb. 6 and this will be just their second game in six days. Milwaukee is also playing with revenge after dropping a 106-101 decision at Washington on Jan. 13. In that game the Bucks controlled the boards, holding a 58-38 edge in rebounding, but turned the ball over a season-high 27 times. Look for Milwaukee to hold onto the ball a little better tonight, but still have that same rebound margin and cruise to a victory.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is Temple as the home dog over Connecticut.
Connecticut may own the better record, but not sure they should be laying this many points in Philly against the Temple Owls.
Temple tends to get up for games like this as evidenced by their win over then-undefeated SMU at home back on January 24th. That win is part of a 6-1 uptick Fran Dunphy's Owls enter this game on. The Owls have also had the better of it in this matchup, as they have won each of the last 3 meetings, including a 55-53 win in Storrs back on January 5th as the +10 point underdog.
Kevin Ollie's team is just 5-4 against the spread on the road this year, while Temple owns a 5-2 home spread mark in their lined games this season.
Until UConn proves they can handle the matchups in this series, I say take the points with the home dog Owls.
3* TEMPLE
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Portland State at IDAHO STATE (-1')
The STORYLINE in this game today - Idaho State returns home for a Big Sky clash, and will host Portland State tonight. Though Portland State leads the series 28-19, the Bengals have won four of the last five meetings. Idaho State is just 11-11 this year, but it is also 7-2 at home, while the Vikings are 8-13 this season and 3-8 on the highway.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this game is Idaho State's defense. after their loss to Utah Valley, the Bengals were allowing 83.8 points a game. Since then, however, Idaho State is allowing just 71.8 points a game. Over a 14-game stretch, Idaho State has stifled opponents to 69, 64, 67, 79, 78, 84, 82, 70, 76, 68, 66, 57and 77 points.
BOTTOM LINE is - Look for a balanced attack on both ends, too, as Idaho State is lethal when it catches fire from long range. Idaho State is 5-0 this season when hitting 11 3-pointers or more in a game. And, Idaho State is 9-0 when shooting 45 percent or better from the field, while it has shot better than 50 percent seven times, six times coming in Big Sky Conference play.
5* IDAHO STATE
Chris Jordan
I feel bad for former New Orleans coach Monty Williams, who is grieving the untimely death of his wife. And while I'm sure the Pelicans will be looking to play for their coach in this one, something tells me the Oklahoma City Thunder are in the driver's seat here and will win by 20.
Williams, now an assistant with the Thunder, will have plenty of support in the arena, after his wife Ingrid, 44, was killed in a crash just outside of downtown Oklahoma City last night.
The Thunder (39-14) are looking for their 14th win in 16 tries after Monday's 122-106 victory at Phoenix. They're averaging a whopping 112.4 points in that span, as Kevin Durant is contributing 30.5. The All-Star has scored 36.3 per game over his last three. Even further, he's averaged 30.5 points in his last 11 home battles with New Orleans.
The Pelicans (20-32) followed a four-game slide with consecutive wins, but this is not the right spot for them to visit Oklahoma City.
Your free pick is on the Thunder.
4* OKLAHOMA CITY