SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Washington (16-7, 7-15 ATS) at California (15-8, 11-11 ATS)
Washington will try to extend its winning streak to five when the Huskies visit Haas Pavilion in Berkeley, Calif. for a Pac-10 matchup with the Golden Bears.
The Huskies has rattled off four straight home wins, including Saturday’s 79-56 rout of Arizona State as a five-point home favorite, but now they go back on the road where they are 0-6 SU and ATS this season, including 0-4 SU and ATS when visiting Pac-10 rivals. Washington scores just 67 points per game on the road, and defensively it is a disaster away from home, giving up 80.6 ppg on 49.8 percent shooting.
Cal hasn’t been home since Jan. 23, going 2-2 (SU and ATS) in four Pac-10 roadies since. The Golden Bears looked spectacular on Saturday, winning at UCLA 72-58 as three-point favorites. They got outstanding efforts from Theo Robertson and Patrick Christopher, who had 20 points each. At home, Cal averages 81 ppg while shooting 50.5 percent from the floor, limiting opponents to 61.4 ppg and 39.9 percent shooting.
These teams met back in Seattle on Jan. 16 with the Huskies blowing out Cal 84-69, cashing as 2½-point favorites. That win snapped Cal’s three-game Cal SU and ATS winning streak in this rivalry, including an 86-71 home win last season as a one-point underdog. The Golden Bears have cashed in five of the last eight series clashes overall.
Washington is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 as a road ‘dog, but otherwise is on ATS slides of 7-16 overall, 5-12 after a straight-up win, 0-5 on the road, 2-7 after a spread-cover and 1-4 on Thursday. Cal is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 as a favorite but it is in ATS ruts of 0-4 after a spread-cover and 0-4 at home after three or more straight road games.
The Huskies are on “over” runs of 27-12 overall, 15-6 on the road, 20-7 after a straight-up win, 27-9 in Pac-10 action and 13-4 after a spread-cover. Cal has stayed “under” the number in six of seven overall and four straight as a favorite, but it is on “over” streaks of 12-5-1 at home, 38-17-1 after a spread-cover, 19-7 on Thursday and 15-5-2 at home against teams with losing road records. In this series, the “over” has been the play in five of the last six overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Ole Miss (17-6, 12-6-1 ATS) at Mississippi State (16-7, 10-8 ATS)
Mississippi State tries to avoid a third straight loss when its hosts the Rebels inside the Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, Miss., for a key SEC matchup between bitter rivals.
Ole Miss snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday with a 74-67 victory over Alabama, pushing as a seven-point home favorite. The Rebels are 3-2 (4-1 ATS) in SEC road games this season but fell back on Feb. 2 at Kentucky 85-75 as an 11-point underdog. Ole Miss puts up 80.3 ppg this season and limits the opposition to 69.9 ppg and 41 percent shooting.
The Bulldogs have lost four of five overall and failed to cash in five of their last seven, including Saturday’s 69-62 loss at Florida, falling short as three-point underdogs. Mississippi State has been in a scoring drought lately, averaging just 64 ppg while shooting 35.4 percent from the field over the last five games.
Mississippi State has won and cashed in the last two meetings in this rivalry, including an 80-75 victory Jan. 9 victory at Ole Miss, cashing as a 3½-point underdog. The Bulldogs have won five of the last eight (SU and ATS) in this rivalry, and the favorite has cashed in 10 of the last 14 meetings.
The Rebels are on ATS runs of 5-1-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 9-4 as road ‘dogs and 6-2 after a straight-up win. Mississippi State is on ATS slides of 2-5 in SEC action and 1-4 as a chalk, but it is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after a straight-up loss.
Ole Miss has stayed below the posted number in 10 of 13 as a ‘dog, eight of 10 as a road ‘dog and five of seven after a straight-up win. Mississippi State is on “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in SEC action and 6-0 as a favorite of less than seven points, but the Bulldogs have topped the number in 13 of 19 as a home favorite. In this rivalry, the “over” is 10-2-1 in the last 13 clashes overall, including 5-1-1 in the last seven in Starkville.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI STATE
St. Mary’s (21-3, 15-7 ATS) at (16) Gonzaga (19-4, 11-8-1 ATS)
The top two teams in the West Coast Conference square off with first place on the line as St. Mary’s visits the McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane, Wash., to take on the Bulldogs.
The Gaels have won six straight (3-3 ATS) to take the lead in the conference, sitting a half-game ahead of Gonzaga. St. Mary’s scored a 73-57 home win over San Francisco on Saturday but came up short as a 16½-point favorite. It is 9-1 (6-3-1 ATS) in games away from home this season and a perfect 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in WCC road contests.
Since suffering a stunning upset loss in San Francisco back on Jan. 30, the Bulldogs have won two straight, crushing Portland 76-49 a week ago as nine-point favorites and then upsetting Memphis 66-58 on Saturday in a non-conference contest, prevailing as five-point ‘dogs. Gonzaga dominates at home, averaging 84.4 ppg and 52.1 percent shooting while allowing just 66.4 ppg and 39.4 percent shooting.
Gonzaga has won five straight against St. Mary’s (3-2 ATS) and eight of 10 overall (5-5 ATS). Even though the home team is on a 6-2 ATS run, the Bulldogs scored an 89-82 road win back on Jan. 14, upsetting the Gaels as a 4½-point underdog.
St. Mary’s is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games as a road ‘dog, but otherwise the Gaels are on positive ATS runs of 13-6 overall, 12-5 after a straight-up win, 4-1 on the road and 6-1 on the road against teams with winning home marks. Gonzaga is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning record and 6-1 ATS in its last seven after a spread-cover, but the Zags are also sporting negative ATS runs of 1-4 in WCC play, 1-4 as a favorite and 1-4 after a straight-up win.
The Gaels are on “under” stretches of 4-1 in conference games and 4-1 after a straight-up win, but they have topped the total in three of five roadies and eight of 10 as a ‘dog of less than seven points. The Bulldogs are on a plethora of “over” runs, including 23-8 overall, 13-3 at home, 8-2 on Thursdays, 19-7 as a favorite and 12-5 in WCC contests. In this series, the “under” has been the play in four of the last five in Washington.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Orlando (36-17, 27-25-1 ATS) at Cleveland (42-11, 27-25-1 ATS)
The Cavaliers put their 12-game winning streak on the line when they welcome the red-hot Magic to Quicken Loans Arena for a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals.
Orlando arrives in Cleveland having won seven of eight overall (5-3 ATS) and fresh off Wednesday’s 107-87 blowout of the Bulls in Chicago, easily cashing as a 4½-point road chalk. The Magic (16-12 SU and 14-13-1 ATS on the road this season) have rattled of three straight wins and covers on the highway, and they’ve cranked up the defense lately, giving up just 92.2 points per game in their last six contests.
Cleveland made it 12 straight wins (7-5 ATS) on Tuesday with a 104-97 home victory over the Nets, coming up well short as a 16-point favorite. LeBron James had 32 points and 11 assists on in the win, while Daniel Gibson was the only other starter to reach double digits with 11 points. The Cavs have won the first five on their current seven-game homestand, averaging 107.6 ppg and shooting 51.3 percent from the floor.
Orlando eliminated the Cavaliers in six games in last season’s Eastern Conference Finals (5-1 ATS), but in the only meeting this season, Cleveland went to Orlando and scored a 102-93 victory as a one-point underdog. Despite that result, the Magic are 15-3 ATS in the last 18 series clashes, including 7-1 ATS when they play in Cleveland.
The Magic are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven Thursday games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 against Central Division teams, but they are on positive ATS runs of 41-19-2 as an underdog and 21-10-1 as road pup. Cleveland is on positive pointspread streaks of 6-2 overall, 16-7 at home against a team with a winning road record, 6-1 after a day off and 3-0-1 on Thursday.
Orlando is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 22-8 on the road, 14-4 on Thursday, 7-1 as an underdog, 6-0 against the Eastern Conference and 5-0 against Central Division teams. On the opposite side, the Cavs are on “over” runs of 5-1-1 at home, 9-3-1 as a favorite and 7-3 at home against teams with a winning road record. Finally, the “over” has been the play in the last four Cavs-Magic meetings dating to last year’s playoff series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
San Antonio (29-21, 24-25-1 ATS) at Denver (35-17, 24-25-3 ATS)
The Spurs continue their season-high eight-game road trip with a stop at the Pepsi Center for a Western Conference showdown against the Nuggets.
San Antonio has gone 2-2 (1-3 ATS) in the first four games of this jaunt, including a 101-89 loss to the Lakers on Monday, failing as a 2½-point underdog. The Spurs got 20 points from Tony Parker and 16 points from Tim Duncan but not much else against Los Angeles, which was playing without superstar Kobe Bryant. San Antonio, which is just 10-11 (9-12 ATS) on the road this season, has given up 98.8 points a game and 48.3 percent shooting over its last five contests.
Denver has alternated wins and losses in its five games, but crushed the Mavericks 127-91 on Tuesday, easily cashing as a seven-point favorite. Nene led the way with 21 points and eight rebounds and Carmelo Anthony returned to the lineup after missing two weeks with an ankle injury and finished with 19 points, six assists and four rebounds. The Nuggets (23-4 SU and 14-12-1 ATS at home), have averaged 113.6 points and 50.5 shooting over their last five games.
Denver has defeated the Spurs twice already this season), both twice in San Antonio, including a 103-89 victory back on Jan. 31 as a 5½-point underdog. The Nuggets have taken six of the last eight series clashes SU and ATS, but the road team has covered in each of the last six meetings and the Spurs have cashed in eight of the last 11 played in Denver.
San Antonio has struggled at the betting window lately, currently on ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 2-5 on the road, 3-9 as a road ‘dog, 3-7 after two days off, 2-10 against Northwest Division teams and 1-7 on Thursday. Denver is in pointspread funks of 1-7-3 after a spread-cover, 6-15-1 as a favorite and 0-3-1 after a straight-up win, but it is on positive ATS runs of 17-5 against Southwest Division teams and 48-19-2 as a favorite of five to 10½ points.
The Spurs are on several “under” streaks, including 6-1 on the road, 22-6 against winning teams, 7-2-1 after a non-cover, 7-3 as ‘dogs and 4-0 on Thursday. The Nuggets have stayed below the posted number in 20 of 26 against teams with a winning record, four of five on Thursday and four of five after getting a day off, but they are on “over” runs of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 7-3 at home against teams with a losing road record. Finally, the “under” is 21-7 in the last 28 series clashes between these clubs, including 11-5 in the last 16 played in the Mile High City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
Orlando at Cleveland
The Cavaliers look to take advantage of an Orlando team that is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games versus the Central Division. Cleveland is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cavaliers favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6 1/2)
Game 501-502: Orlando at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 121.339; Cleveland 131.536
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 10; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6 1/2); Over
Game 503-504: San Antonio at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 118.041; Denver 127.825
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 10; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 5 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-5 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Louisville at St. John's
The Cardinals look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as a road favorite from 3 1/2 to 6 points. Louisville is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-5 1/2)
Game 505-506: Massachusetts at Duquesne
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 54.592; Duquesne 57.167
Dunkel Line: Duquesne by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Duquesne by 7
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+7)
Game 507-508: Michigan at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 67.064; Minnesota 70.660
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+8 1/2)
Game 509-510: Notre Dame at Seton Hall
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 61.715; Seton Hall 71.677
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 10
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seton Hall (-4 1/2)
Game 511-512: UL-Lafayette at Florida Atlantic
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 51.027; Florida Atlantic 59.645
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (-2)
Game 513-514: Central Michigan at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 53.894; Ohio 56.821
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 3
Vegas Line: Ohio by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+7 1/2)
Game 515-516: Valparaiso at Cleveland State
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 57.309; Cleveland State 60.209
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 3
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Valparaiso (+8)
Game 517-518: WI-Milwaukee at Wright State
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 57.877; Wright State 65.723
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 8
Vegas Line: Wright State by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+11 1/2)
Game 519-520: Butler at Youngstown State
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 68.084; Youngstown State 51.413
Dunkel Line: Butler by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Butler by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (-12 1/2)
Game 521-522: Louisville at St. John's
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 70.214; St. John's 61.599
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Louisville by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-5 1/2)
Game 523-524: WI-Green Bay at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 52.981; Detroit 63.260
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit by 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-7)
Game 525-526: Florida International at South Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 44.439; South Alabama 50.408
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 6
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+9)
Game 527-528: North Texas at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 54.765; New Orleans 43.899
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 11
Vegas Line: North Texas by 7
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-7)
Game 529-530: Denver at Middle Tennessee State
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 52.190; Middle Tennessee State 57.871
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-5)
Game 531-532: UL-Monroe at AR-Little Rock
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 44.990; AR-Little Rock 52.460
Dunkel Line: AR-Little Rock by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: AR-Little Rock by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: AR-Little Rock (-4 1/2)
Game 533-534: Arkansas State at Western Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 50.774; Western Kentucky 58.948
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 8
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (+9 1/2)
Game 535-536: Oregon State at Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 60.052; Arizona State 68.047
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 8
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+12 1/2)
Game 537-538: Washington at California
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 66.184; California 72.156
Dunkel Line: California by 6
Vegas Line: California by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (-4 1/2)
Game 539-540: Mississippi at Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 67.651; Mississippi State 68.237
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 1
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+4 1/2)
Game 541-542: Utah State at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 69.595; Boise State 55.673
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 14
Vegas Line: Utah State by 7
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-7)
Game 543-544: Long Beach State at Cal Poly
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 52.866; Cal Poly 47.204
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (-4 1/2)
Game 545-546: Washington State at Stanford
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 58.908; Stanford 64.722
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 6
Vegas Line: Stanford by 4
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-4)
Game 547-548: Pepperdine at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 46.157; San Francisco 57.413
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-9)
Game 549-550: New Mexico State at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 54.980; Fresno State 61.951
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 7
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-3 1/2)
Game 551-552: Loyola-Marymount at Santa Clara
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Marymount 51.832; Santa Clara 53.606
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 2
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 3
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Marymount (+3)
Game 553-554: Oregon at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 58.781; Arizona 68.093
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-7)
Game 555-556: St. Mary's (CA) at Gonzaga
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 66.350; Gonzaga 71.905
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 6
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (CA) (+6)
Game 557-558: San Diego at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 55.249; Portland 65.182
Dunkel Line: Portland by 10
Vegas Line: Portland by 11
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+11)
Game 559-560: Davidson at Appalachian State
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 51.377; Appalachian State 58.963
Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Appalachian State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Appalachian State (-1 1/2)
Game 561-562: Elon at College of Charleston
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 47.733; College of Charleston 57.600
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 10
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+12 1/2)
Game 563-564: Murray State at Tennessee Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 62.439; Tennessee Tech 53.590
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 9
Vegas Line: Murray State by 12
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (+12)
Game 565-566: Eastern Kentucky at SE Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 53.606; SE Missouri State 42.768
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 11
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 10
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (-10)
Game 567-568: Tennessee Martin at Jacksonville State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Martin 39.364; Jacksonville State 51.488
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville State by 12
Vegas Line: Jacksonville State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Martin (+12 1/2)
Game 569-570: Morehead State at Eastern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 58.395; Eastern Illinois 52.147
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 6
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (-5 1/2)
Game 571-572: IUPUI at Centenary
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 54.625; Centenary 47.163
Dunkel Line: IUPUI by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 573-574: IPFW at UMKC
Dunkel Ratings: IPFW 52.393; UMKC 47.245
Dunkel Line: IPFW by 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 575-576: Western Illinois at Oral Roberts
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 46.566; Oral Roberts 60.650
Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 14
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 577-578: Oakland at Southern Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 53.600; Southern Utah 46.463
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Washington at Montreal
The Capitals look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is coming off a 3-0 loss to Boston and is 1-5 in its last 6 games following a loss by 3 or more goals. Washington is the pick (-170) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-170)
Game 1-2: Nashville at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.842; NY Rangers 11.295
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+115); Over
Game 3-4: San Jose at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.192; Columbus 12.446
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+130); Under
Game 5-6: Philadelphia at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.954; New Jersey 11.489
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-150); Under
Game 7-8: NY Islanders at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.401; Pittsburgh 12.514
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-280); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-280); Over
Game 9-10: Washington at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 14.197; Montreal 10.718
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-170); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-170); Over
Game 11-12: Phoenix at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.256; Minnesota 12.512
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 13-14: Atlanta at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 12.203; Colorado 11.589
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-190); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+160); Under
Game 15-16: Edmonton at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 10.667; Anaheim 12.563
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-250); Over
Marc Lawrence
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Orlando Magic
When the Magic meet the Cavs at Quicken Loans Arena in a Thursday night showdown on TNT they will be looking to avenge a 102-93 loss suffered earlier this season in Orlando. Cleveland has struggled in this series, going just 3-15 ATS the last 18 games, including 1-10 ATS laying points. Considering that Orlando has lost the money only one time in seven games when taking points this season (4-1-2 ATS), we'll back the Magic act here tonight.
Big Al Mcmordie
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over San Antonio, as the Nuggets fall into a super 79.67% ATS "momentum" system of mine. What we want to do is play on any .600 (or better) home favorite, priced from -4.5 to -10 points, and off a 20-point home win, if it's matched up against a .401 (or better) foe off exactly one loss. In its last game, Denver blew out Dallas 127-91, while the Spurs lost to the Kobe Bryant-less Lakers 101-89. The Spurs are in disarray right now, and coach Gregg Popovich admits to not having any answers. The team has never jelled on the defensive end, and is having difficulty defeating teams with winning records this season. Denver has already defeated the Spurs twice this season, including the last meeting in San Antonio without Carmelo Anthony. Take Denver.
Rob Vinciletti
Washington State vs. Stanford
Play: Washington State +4
The Cougars have offensive and defensive statistical edges here over Stanford. They also happen to be 17-2 vs losing teams the past few years. The odd thing is that Stanford for the first time in recent memory is under .500, this late in the season. Even worse they are in last place in the PAC 10. Stanford is just 4-10 vs wining teams, and have lost the first 2 games of February. Washington St. is a solid 8-2 this year after shooting 50% or better from the field in their last game. Take the points in this one as Washington St. May win outright.
LARRY NESS
Washington @ California
PICK: California -5.5
Cal was ranked 13 by the AP (12 by the coaches) in the preseason poll with Washington getting ranked 14th and 13th. However, as I've talked about for weeks in my CBB Notes, the 2009-10 season may turn out to be "A Year NOT to Remember" for the Pac 10. There is a very real possibility that this long-established basketball "power conference" may place just one school in this year's NCAA field for the first time since 1978, when just 32 teams were invited. Cal enters this game 15-8 (7-4), giving the Bears a one-game lead in the Pac 10 over the Huskies (16-7 / 6-5) and four other schools (Arizona, ASU, UCLA and USC). While both teams have struggled, I have to believe that Cal has the better chance to get this season turned around. Randle (19.1-4.7) and Christopher (16.3-5.)) give them the best guard duo in the league (both are seniors) plus the 6-6 Robertson (14.2-4.5) and the 6-8 Boykin (11.0-6.2) are both fifth-year seniors (experience has to count for something down the stretch). Speaking of seniors, Washington's 6-6 Pondexter has had a "breakout" senior season, averaging 20.6 PPG and 8.3 RPG (had averaged 10.9-4.9 his 1st three years). However, the 6-9 Bryan-Amaning was also expected to have a big year, but he's been a major disappointment, averaging just 7.2-5.1. Thomas (17.1-4.3-2.7) is proving his freshman season was no fluke at one guard spot, while junior Overton (8.8-2.8-3.5) makes for a solid partner on the perimeter (but not as good as Cal's duo). Cal lost 84-69 up in Seattle back on Jan 16, shooting an awful 33.3 percent as team (including 5-of-19 on threes) with only Christopher playing well with 28 points (other four starters combined for 20 points). With revenge and some 'home whistles' on their side this time around (plus Montgomery over Romar on the sidelines is a total mismatch!), expect the Bears to open a two-game lead in the Pac 10 over their chief rival. Take Cal.
Kyle Hunter
Oregon vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -7
The Oregon Ducks are not a very good team to start with, and once they get on the road they are terrible. The Ducks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games and Arizona is 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. On January 16th the Wildcats beat the Ducks by 14 on the road. Oregon is short-handed right now as well and Arizona should have plenty of talent to cover in this one.
Jim Feist
San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Over 204
San Antonio is no longer a dominant defensive team, ranked 12th in the NBA in field goal shooting allowed. The offense is terrific, though, averaging 100 ppg and ranked 6th in the league in shooting. They take on a Denver team that loves the uptempo style, on a 4-1 run over the total. The Nuggets obliterated Dallas at the Pepsi Center by 36 points the last game, 127-91, in the return of all-star forward Carmelo Anthony. The Nuggets shot 60.8 percent from the field! Chauncey Billups returned after missing Saturday's game because of his own ankle injury. He shot 6-for-8 from the field, scored 16 points and had six assists. Look for an offensive show. Play the Spurs/Nuggets Over the total.
James Patrick Sports
Magic vs. Cavaliers
Eastern Conference Finals rematch from a year ago and Quicken Loans Arena will be" Rockin". The Magicians have held opposing foes to (87 ppg) their past (5) contests and the Cavaliers have surrendered just (93 ppg) on their home court and they have held (4) of past (5) opponents under (90 ppg). Orlando is under the Total in (7) of (8) ATS as an underdog, (14-4) ATS in Thursday action and (21-8) ATS on the road. Two of the best in the Eastern Conference show what kind of defense to expect in upcoming playoff battles as James Patrick Sports Thursday NBA winner is Orlando - Cleveland Under the Total.
Vernon Croy
1* Take Minnesota ATS
This pick falls into one of my NCAAB systems and the Golden Gophers are the superior team at home Thursday night. The Golden Gophers are shooting 51% as a team at home this season while their opponents are shooting just 36.7% against them. The Gophers have out-scored their opponents by an average of 23.4 points per game at home this season and they are also shooting 42.7% from beyond the arc at home. Michigan is shooting just 37.7% as a team over their last 5 games and they are also shooting just 40.3% on the road this season. The Wolverines are averaging just 54.2 ppg over their last 5 games and with-out an offensive explosion they will get blown out by Minnesota Thursday night. Take the Minnesota Golden Gophers as my NCAA Basketball Pick for Thursday.
Stan Lisowski
CLEVELAND
The Cavs have won 7 straight games by at least 7 points. Orlando comes into this having dropped 8 of 12 ATS when playing back to back, while the Magic have a 3-8 spread record against the NBA Central teams. Cleveland is a 67% spread proposition with rest against a club that played the previous day.
EZWINNERS
Portland Pilots -10.5
The Pilots have been playing well. Portland has won seven out of their last ten games that includes a nine point win over San Diego on the road a month ago and their three losses coming against Gonzaga twice and St. Marys. San Diego has not been playing well. Since a nice 4-1 start with wins over Stanford and Oklahoma the Toreros are 5-15 and tied for last place place in the conference. The Pilots will most likely be without leading scorer Nik Raivio who has missed the last five games due to injury and San Diego will be without De'Jon Jackson, the team's No. 2 scorer who is out for the season with a torn ACL. Portland has many three point shooters who can help compensate the loss of Raivio, while San Diego simply does not have that luxury. San Diego is only 3-7 against the spread in their last ten road games and I don't expect them to be in this game for long. Lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +1.06 over TAMPA BAY (1st Period)
Even during that ugly losing streak that the Bruins just snapped, they were still kicking it in the first period so let’s go with that. Boston jumped out to at least a 1-0 lead in six straight games and has not been behind after the first period in any of them. They seem to have a lot of energy in the first frame and they haven’t been giving up anything either. The Lightning are playing some decent hockey right now with four wins in a row and seven wins in eight games. They’ll hit the road for two games in New York for the final two games before the break and there were signs in its last game that they could be hitting a lull. The Canucks were swarming them for a good portion in that contest but Nittymaki was standing on his head and came up big. Teams that have been playing a lot of games at home often get a little too complacent and the Bolts have played just twice on the road in the past three weeks. Anyway, this is more about playing on a Bruins team that is showing a strong propensity for starting out games very strong. Play: Boston in the first period +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
OTTAWA +1.20 over Washington
Now that the streak is over the Caps can take a deep breath and relax a little. It’s almost like getting eliminated from the playoffs and then playing an exhibition game the day after. These Caps just finished one of the best runs in the history of the game and in three of the last four, among others, were played with a ton of intensity that saw them come back from large deficits in the third period. The streak is over and they’ll have to play again tonight the day after the streak was snapped. It’s a very difficult assignment and the Sens couldn’t have asked for a better time to play Washington. Ottawa is rested, they’re playing great hockey and they haven’t lost at home in five weeks. They’ll be extremely jacked up tonight, as will the fans and we definitely can’t say the same thing about the Caps. Washington has shown some serious weakness in its own end and there’s not a better team in the NHL in putting pressure on the opposition in its own end than these Senators. This is a huge, huge letdown spot for the Caps and a great situation for this red-hot host. Play: Ottawa +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Buffalo -½ +1.39 over CAROLINA
The Sabres have dropped five in a row and will close out the break with a game against the Sharks on Saturday, making this one a crucial game indeed. The Sabres just lost to the Canes six days ago in Buffalo so losing twice to them in the span of a week will not sit well with anyone. Lindy Ruff is one of the best in the business in getting his guys ready and this is what was written about them after the loss to the Bruins on Tuesday:
The Sabres' coach benched several players during Tuesday's 3-2 shootout loss to Boston, including captain Craig Rivet. Players can expect the same if they don't start well Thursday in Carolina. The Sabres were in a 2-0 hole against Boston after 11:58, so Ruff made changes that could have a lasting impact.
"Bad start to the game," Ruff said. "I walked in the room after the first period and I said, 'I'm going to play the guys that are going the best.' I said, "I don't care if I have to play two lines, if I have to play three defensemen.' After what I saw in the first period, it wasn't good enough.
The Canes are still going with Manny Legace because of an injury to Cam Ward and Miller against Legace is a mismatch, period. Expect the Sabres to be as hungry as they’ve been all year from the drop of the puck to the final buzzer and emerge victorious. The far superior team in need of a win gets the call. Play: Buffalo -½ +1.29 (Risking 2 units).
VEGAS EXPERTS
St. Mary's at Gonzaga
St. Mary's has been quite effective on the road this year, going 7-1 ATS, but, historically speaking, they have been anything but effective for Spokane. They have lost 13 straight road games to Gonzaga and 28 of 32 meetings overall, dating back to 1997. Not only did the Zags already beat the Gaels in their place, 89-82 as 4.5-point underdogs back on January 14th, but Mark Few's team also swept the season series last year, including the WCC Final. Lay the short number.
Play on: Gonzaga
LT Profits
Valparaiso @ Cleveland State
The Valparaiso Crusaders prefer to play at a faster pace, but we look for the Cleveland State Vikings to slow this game down enough to sneak an Under in this Horizon League contest.
Cleveland State home games are averaging a combined 137.3 points this season, as they play much better defense at home than on the road, allowing 66.7 points per game on only 43.9 percent shooting in Wolstein Center. In fact, they have allowed only one of their last five opponents to reach 70 points, regardless of the venue, as they held those five foes to a scant 40.3 percent shooting.
Sure, the Crusaders love to run, but we look for the Vikings to control the tempo at home, just as they did the last time Valpo visited when they were amazingly held to 42 points. They are facing a Vikings defense here that forces turnovers on 23.5 percent of possessions, which ranks 39 in the country according to Pomeroy, and also ranks an excellent 22 in steal percentage.
If the Crusaders offense has a weakness, it is that they are sometimes loose with the basketball, turning the ball over on 20.5 percent of possessions. This makes for s somewhat difficult matchup here vs. the Cleveland State ball-hawkers.
With the Vikings not being a great offensive team, averaging only 1,026 points per possession, we do not expect this game to get out of the 130s.
Pick: Valparaiso/Cleveland State Under 142