Tom Freese
Utah St. at Boise St.
Prediction: Utah St.
Boise St is 11-12 overall and 2-8 in Conference games. The Broncos are led in scoring by Ike Okoye and his 12.8 points a game. Lashard Anderson scores 11.1 points a game. Robert Arnold scores 11 points a game. The Broncos 73 points a game. Boise St are 0-6 ATS off an upset loss to a Conference foe as a favorite. The Broncos are 3-10 ATS off a game where they failed to cover ATS. Utah St is 18-6 overall and 8-2 in Conference Play. The Aggies score 74 points a game. Forward Tai Wesley scores 13.2 points a game. Guard Jared Quayle scores 12 points a game. Forward Nate Bendall scores 10.5 points a game. The Aggies are coached by Stew Morrill who has a 267-90 record. The man is a legend. The Aggies are 6-0 ATS off a win by 10 or more points and they are 7-0 ATS off a Conference win. Utah St is 20-6 ATS in after scoring 75 or more points in their last game. PLAY ON UTAH ST -
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Saint Mary's +6
The Gaels have had this one circled since January 14th when they lost at home to the Bulldogs so they will not be lacking any motivation here. Plus, a win puts Saint Mary's all alone at the top of the WCC so the Gaels will draw further motivation from that. Saint Mary's is 7-1 ATS in all road lined games this season. We also can't ignore the fact that Saint Mary's is a perfect 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss where its opponent scored 85 or more points under coach Bennett. While Gonzaga is a strong home team, it is just 2-4 ATS in home lined games this season. We'll take the points in a game that figure to go right down to the wire.
Matt Fargo
Wis-Green Bay at Detroit U
Prediction: Wis-Green Bay
The chase for the regular season Horizon League championship is likely over tonight as with a win over Youngstown St., Butler will claim the outright title. That does not mean any of the remaining games are not important anymore. Teams still need to play for seedings and byes for the conference tournament and these games will go a long way in determining what takes place. The Bulldogs will have the number one seed but the team that finishes second will have a bye all the way until the semifinals and right now there are five teams that are within a game and a half of each other for second place. Two of those teams are squaring off tonight with Detroit being the worst of that five-team group so a loss will likely knock it out. That should get the motivation going for the Titans but at the same time it will also put a spark under Wisconsin-Green Bay to hold its position, currently tied for third place with Wright St. The Phoenix have a showdown with the Raiders on Saturday in Dayton but in order for that game to mean something, they need to take care of business here. The fact that we are getting a ton of points only adds to the value for a team that is actually going out to win a game. Wisconsin-Green Bay is a game better overall and in the conference yet it is getting a touchdown in this matchup. In a conference game this time of year pairing two fairly similar teams, you will normally see the line take the home floor into consideration and that is it. Right now, Wisconsin-Green Bay has a better power ranking, has played a tougher schedule and is a solid 6-4 on the road. Detroit comes in with a 10-3 record at home but I do not consider that to be dominating enough to constitute a rather large line. The Phoenix have the advantage at the free throw line and in assist/turnover ratio and those are two of the big categories. A third big one is in rebounding and while Detroit has the advantage there, Wisconsin-Green Bay is closing the gap. It has outrebounded five of its last six opponents, posting a 22-rebound advantage over that span (3.7 rpg). Prior to that stretch, the Phoenix had lost the battle of the boards against eight of their previous nine opponents. Wisconsin-Green Bay has won five straight meetings in this series including a two-point victory at home last month and while that means revenge comes into play, the matchups and the talent negate that factor here. 3* Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix
Rocketman
Orlando @ Cleveland
Play: Orlando +6
Orlando is a super 41-18 ATS last 3 years as an underdog. It's only happened 5 times this year where they are 4-1 ATS as a doggie. Orlando is 11-3 ATS last 3 years overall vs Cleveland and 5-1 ATS at Cleveland last 3 seasons. Magic are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog. Magic are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland. Magic are 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Orlando tonight!
Sam Martin
Notre Dame at Seton Hall
Prediction: Seton Hall
We'll fade the Golden Domers here on Thursday night as we don?t trust them away from home. So far, the Fighting Irish are just 2-5 straight up on the road, and are putting up 12 less points per game (67) than their season average (79). Seton Hall comes in losing three straight, but all of those games came on the road. Here at home they are a respectable 10-3 SU and they should be able to outscore the Irish here tonight. Play on Seton Hall.
Nelly
North Texas - over New Orleans
Laying a lot of points on the road is not something we generally encourage but North Texas is playing outstanding basketball right now with wins in six of the last eight games and great ATS numbers. North Texas has covered in four of the last five road games and the Mean Green won with ease in the home meeting between these teams 71-57 despite a marginal shooting game. New Orleans enters this game with a six game losing streak and that streak would be at nine if not for a one-point OT home win. The Privateers are losing their D-I status next season and the team is playing like it, with poor efforts on both sides of the ball of late. In home games New Orleans is averaging less than 60 points scored per game and keeping pace with a higher scoring squad will be difficult. New Orleans has lost three straight home games and North Texas is 7-3-1 ATS on the road this season. Another thing to like about North Texas is they have been strong starters in several recent games and if they grab an early lead in is hard to envision a deflated New Orleans squad climbing back into the picture.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Magic/Cavs UNDER 194.5
In the season's first meeting, the Magic and Cavs combined for 195 points. I'm expecting an even lower scoring affair tonight as both teams look to assert themselves as the team to beat in the East. The Magic have played exceptional defense on the road this season, and they have played to the Under in 20 of 28 road games as a result. In fact, the Magic have now played to the Under in 14 of their last 18 games. It is also worth noting that Orlando is 8-0 Under after scoring 60 points or more in the first half of its last game this season. We also can't ignore that the Under is 14-4 in the Magic's last 18 Thursday games and 3-1-1 in the Cavaliers' last 5 Thursday games. Teams tend to step it up when they're playing on the Thursday night prime time stage. This matchup should very much feel like a playoff game, and we should see great defense as a result. Bet the Under.
Craig Trapp
Utah State vs. Boise State
Play: Utah State -7
UTAH State is super hot going 8-0 ATS in L8 games. On the flip side Boise is only 2-6 in L8 games ATS. This is a rematch from middle of JAN that saw UTAH ST pound Boise by 22 pts. If anything since then UTAH ST is playing better with hot shooting and great defense, in fact since the last match up UTAH ST has averaged nearly 20 pt wins. Tonight you will see the well balanced attack from the Aggies on offense and some shut down defense that will lead to a double digit victory for sure. Boise is coming off a 20 pt loss at home to Idaho, and might be looking at back to back embarrassing games. Enjoy the free play.
STEVE MERRIL
Washington @ California
PICK: California -4.5
California was the Pac-10 preseason favorite. But the Bears had a ton of injuries early on and they really struggled because they weren’t playing with a consistent lineup on the floor. That all changed when Cal welcomed backed their best player, Theo Robertson. And since he’s been back, this team has shown why they were the pick of the conference and the preseason # 15 team in the nation. Cal is 9-4 since Robertson’s return with three of the losses coming by a single point in overtime at UCLA, by 4 at Arizona, and by 3 at USC. So with a bounce here or there, the Bears could actually be on a 12-1 run heading into tonight.
Their only blowout loss over that stretch came at Washington back on January 16th. But Cal was in a terrible spot for that game; it was the dreadful Washington St to Washington trip and the game was played at 11 am PT. There was nothing working in California’s favor for that game, and Washington took full advantage and won easily, 84-69.
But Cal is in the favorable spot tonight as they return home off a 4-game road trip. Their last home game came way back on January 23rd, so they’ll be fired up for this one, especially with the ESPN cameras in the house. Washington enters off a 4-game home stand, and now plays their first road game in close to three weeks. And the road has been a bad place for the Huskies as they are winless away from home (0-6), and with Cal in a nice revenge spot, things don’t look too promising for Washington.
Despite the good spot for California, there are a couple of reasons why we are not making them a Best Bet selection in this spot. Washington’s 4-game winning streak has them full of confidence and the fact this game is huge for the Pac-10 title. “Our team knows the significance of this game,” said Quincy Pondexter. “We have to prove we are one of the best teams in this conference.” Given how much this game means, Washington head coach Lorenzo Romar said, “I would be shocked if we go on the road here and go on the floor and have no energy.”
LEE KOSTROSKI
Mississippi @ Mississippi
PICK: Mississippi +4.5
The Rebels have been patiently waiting for this rematch after blowing their game at home to their hated rival. That game was played on January 9th and despite leading most of the way, Ole Miss picked up the home loss 80-75. MSU took the lead for good in that one with just under 5:00 minutes remaining and held on. That marked the third straight time that the road team has picked up an outright win in this battle for state supremacy. We see that happening once again this time around.
The Bulldogs were able to hang around in that first match up due to some decent shooting. They hit 42% of their shots for the game and made 10 three pointers and hit 45% from behind the arc. While those numbers may not seem staggering, they are for MSU. This team simply is not a good shooting team. They are making only 38% of their shots in SEC play this year. Even worse, from behind the arc they are successful only 29% of the time. Thus, the numbers above in their first meeting vs. Ole Miss greatly exceed their averages for the year. That bad part for MSU is, its gotten even worse as of late. This team has now lost 4 of their last 5 games and much of that is due to a struggling offense. They have made on 35% of their shots over the last 5 games. And despite being a fairly fast paced team (2nd in the SEC in possessions per 40 minutes), they have topped 67 points only one time in their last five games. Compare that to an Ole Miss offense that is averaging 80 PPG on the year and have been held under 73 points only four times all season.
After their loss in January, Mississippi head coach Andy Kennedy was upset with his team’s effort saying they didn’t battle enough. He has stressed that in the practices leading up to this game so you can bet he will get a huge effort here. His team has been tough on the road this year beating LSU, Auburn and Georgia already with a 2-point loss @ Tennessee and a “respectable” 10-point setback @ Kentucky. Their offensive and defensive road numbers look very similar to their overall numbers so don’t expect a big dropoff just because they are away from home.
Many have said this is a must win game for Mississippi State as they are firmly on the NCAA bubble. While we don’t disagree with that, it’s also extremely important to Ole Miss as they are no shoe in to make the big dance. Getting points tonight vs. a team that has really looked out of sorts on offense is not a bad situation. This one stays close throughout and we’ll side with Ole Miss and their solid guard play to get the road win.
Black Widow
1* on San Diego +10.5
Inflated line here Thursday. Portland had been playing solid basketball before a 49-76 loss to Gonzaga last time out. That loss to the Zags was a huge blow to their confidence, and we fully expect Portland to suffer a hangover from it tonight when San Diego comes to town. Portland is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) after 15 or more games since 1997. San Diego will be looking for revenge after a 9-point home loss to Portland back on January 14th, while Portland will be disinterested tonight having already beaten this team. San Diego is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Portland is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Take San Diego and the points.
Info Plays
3* on Denver Nuggets -5.5
Reasons why the Nuggets cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - poor foul drawing team - attempting =46% on the season. This is a 115-67 ATS System hitting 63.2% over the last 5 seasons. A big reason why the Spurs aren't having the same success they have in the past is that they settle for too many jump shots, not getting to the free throw line. Denver is 19-6 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
2.) Denver is 23-4 at home this season, winning by 10.2 PPG. The Nuggets are 3-0 in their last 3 meetings with San Antonio, winning by 14, 7, and 8 points, respectively. Two of those meetings occurred on the road. With Denver being one of the best home teams in the league, this is a very generous line as they are asked to lay just 5.5 points Thursday. Bet Denver at home.
Jack Jones
Play on Saint Mary's +6
These are a pair of teams that match up very well statistically. This is a game that easily go to either team, which is why I'll gladly take the points on the St. Mary's Gaels Thursday night.
St. Mary's is averaging 81.4 points per game offensively this season, while Gonzaga has averaged 78.3 so far. Defensively, St. Mary's is allowing 66.3 points per game to 68.2 ppg for Gonzaga. The Zags are 8-1 at home, the Gaels 9-1 on the road.
These teams are battling for the top spot in the West Coast Conference and the winner of this game will be sitting in the driver's seat the rest of the way. The Bulldogs took the first game of this series at St. Mary's earlier this season, however, the Gaels will be plenty motivated to pull of the upset for a chance at a regular season conference championship that Gonzaga has dominated in recent years. There's certainly a chance at an upset here, but I'll take the 6 points as an added bonus.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Oregon State/Arizona State UNDER 116.5
Here's the key: ASU is 11-1 Under off a road loss by 10 points or more under coach Sendek, and we are only seeing 114.2 points scored on average in these spots. In other words, Sendek has found ways to motivate his teams to play better defense following embarrassing losses. In the above situation, ASU is only allowing 53.3 ppg. In addition, OSU prefers to play in the half court and enters tonight's matchup having played to the Under in 5 straight games. Take the Under for 1 Unit tonight.
Scott Delaney
Michigan at Minnesota
Off the win with Duke last night, I am siding with Minnesota in Big 10 play tonight with this freebie.
How bad are things in Ann Arbor these days, honestly?
Used to be a time the Maize and Blue faithful had plenty to cheer for, and while that's been reduced to the perenially tough, senior-laden softball team these days, it's the bigger-revenue sports that are suffering terribly.
After the football team went 5-7 this past season, Wolverines fans have watched the once tough basketball program stumble out to a 11-12 mark.
Michigan arrives at Williams Arena having lost five of six, and will have its hands full with a talented Gophers team that is 14-8 on the year and is mathematically three games back in the Big 10 Conference.
The Gophers rank among the national leaders in severalstatistical categories, (as of Feb. 7), including sixth in assists per game (17.5), 11th in steals per game (9.6), 13th in blocked shots (6.3), 19th in turnover margin (3.8), 22nd in assist turnover ratio (1.33) and 27th in three-point FG percentage (.389).
In conference play, it gets deeper, as Minnesota leads the Big Ten in blocked shots (138: 6.3 bpg), steals (211: 9.6 spg) and defensive field goal percentage (.397).
Gophers roll tonight.
1♦ MINNESOTA