Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Orlando had their fun whipping up on the Chicago Bulls last night without Derrick Rose (left in the first quarter), but tonight won't be so easy. Back-to-back games that include the Cleveland Cavs on the road is never a good thing, especially when its the second game of the back-to-back. Cleveland is playing great basketball right now, and despite the criticism they drew early in the season, they didn't let it affect them as they approach the All-Star break. You can tout the Lakers all you want, I still believe the Cavs have the best player in basketball and I think they have the best team in the NBA, and today they can get a HUGE monkey off their backs. Orlando whipped the Cavs in the playoffs last year, winning every game at home and stealing one in Cleveland. In fact, the Magic have covered 15 of the last 18 meetings with the Cavs and I realize I'm going against a huge trend here, but Orlando is going into a very tough place to play against a team that just hasn't been losing basketball games lately. They've won 12 straight SU and have covered six of their last eight... and they clearly want to head to the break on a high note. Beating the Magic to a pulp would be a solid finish. Cavs by 10 tonight.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Dominic Fazzini
Butler -12' at YOUNGSTOWN STATE
I took another tumble Wednesday with my complimentary selection as the Jazz cooled off dramatically at home against a Lakers team playing without Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum. But I'm still on a 70-49-4 run, and I've got a college basketball play today that will get me going right again!
Butler already has routed Youngstown State once this season, winning 91-61 at home on Jan. 16, and its going to be focused tonight on the road as it seeks to clinch its fourth straight Horizon League title outright and take one step closer to an undefeated conference season.
The Bulldogs are 9-1 on the road this season and have won 13 straight games overall. They also have won eight straight games against the Penguins, winning by an average of 16.7 points.
Youngstown State has lost three straight games, though all were on the road. But the team isn't exactly a lock at home, going just 6-5 this season.
Butler simply has too much talent for the Penguins to deal with, led by Gordon Hayward (15.7 ppg, 7.8 rebounds), Shelvin Mack (14.1 ppg) and Matt Howard (11.5 ppg).
Youngstown State is on ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 2-6 at home and 1-4 as an underdog. With Butler on a mission this season, things aren't going to go well for the Penguins tonight. Take the Bulldogs to cover the points in a rout.
3♦ BUTLER
Karl Garrett
Louisville -4' at ST. JOHN'S
4-1 my last 5 comp play selections.
It's getting to the point where Louisville better start to string together a serious winning streak, as the Cardinals are just 15-8 and have some work to do if they wish to impress the tournament commitee next month.
Especially troubling is the fact Louisville has dropped 3 in a row on the conference road coming into tonight's game in snowy New York City.
Good news is, St. John's is on a 5 game losing streak both straight up, and against the spread, and they have lost 8 of their last 10 overall.
The Cards do come into this one off home wins over Connecticut, and Rutgers, and I expect them to have their way tonight, as they have bested the Red Storm in 5 of the last 6 meetings straight up. This point spread is not the usual double-digits the Redbirds are asked to cover when they play the Johnnies, so the G-Man is going to lay it with the visitor.
Take Louisville minus the points.
3♦ LOUISVILLE
Drew Gordon
Michigan at MINNESOTA -8'
56-38-3 roll L/97 Free Plays, incl. the Timberwolves and New Mexico last night! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Michigan at Minnesota match up.
Based on their meetings last season, I can understand why a large majority of bettors are siding with the Wolverines here. However, what the public needs to realize is these are NOT the same two teams as last season. Wolverines have clearly regressed, while the Golden Gophers have improved vastly under coach Smith.
Minnesota is no longer the pushover they once were, especially on defense, ranking 1st in the Big Ten in blocks and steals, allowing just 58 ppg on 36% shooting at home this season! Their frontline starters 6'11 Sampson (42 blocks) and the athletic 6'7 Johnson (45 blocks), along with 6'10 Iverson (20 blocks) coming off the bench is more than capable of matching up with DeShawn Sims. Look guys, its no secret Michigan is made up of two players (Harris and Sims), and if you can stop either one of them, the Wolverines are in BIG trouble.
Also, we mentioned their previous meetings last season, but that doesn't cover the scope of their BITTER home loss in their last meeting. Wolverines came into the Gophers house and pulled out the 67-64 upset in a one of the most critical games of the season. Long story short, the Gophers want this game BAD, and it'll show in the final boxscore.
Finally, what has Michigan done on the road to impress you? They're 2-8 SU and 5-5 ATS away from Ann Arbor, with their lone "true" road win coming at Penn State (plus an overtime win over Creighton in Florida early on). My point is, its time to stop giving this Michigan team un-warranted respect! Looking at both these teams, only one has shown progression from last season, and it'll show tonight. Gopers roll!
Take Minnesota over Michigan in this college hoops match up.
4♦ MINNESOTA
Bobby Maxwell
Washington St. at STANFORD -5
My amazing FREE play run now sits at 48-18-1 and tonight I'm scoring a winner on the college hardwood as I play Stanford at home in Pac-10 action against Washington St.
As bad as Stanford has been on the road this Pac-10 season, the Cardinal have been pretty good at home and should be able to deliver a beating to the Cougars tonight.
Stanford has won all four Pac-10 home games this season (3-1 ATS) and absolutely dominated Oregon and Oregon State in its last weekend homestand on Jan. 21 and 23. The Cardinal beat up Oregon State 59-35 and clubbed Oregon 84-69, easily covering in both meetings.
Washington State has had trouble at the betting window lately, on ATS slides of 1-10 as a road ‘dog of up to 6 ½-points, 0-5 after a spread-cover, 3-9 overall, 5-15-1 as a road ‘dog, 8-21-1 as an underdog and 5-11-1 on the highway.
Stanford is 20-9-2 ATS in its last 31 at home, 19-9-1 ATS as a home favorite and 5-2 overall. In this series, Stanford has cashed in each of the last six matchups, nine of 10 overall and five straight in front of the home fans.
Stanford lost at Washington State back on Jan. 16, falling 77-73 as a 5 ½-point underdogs, but this home court is going to prove a big difference as the Cardinal win this one by 10. Play Stanford.
3♦ STANFORD
Stephen Nover
St. Mary's at GONZAGA -6
Don't discount Gonzaga being a factor come NCAA Tournament time.
The Bulldogs have won 11 of their past 12 games. They knocked off Memphis on the road in their last game, winning 66-58 this past Saturday.
St. Mary's is having an excellent season, too. The Gaels are led by star center Omar Samhan, who leads the West Coast Conference in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots.
This is a battle for first place in the West Coast Conference. Gonzaga doesn't lose big WCC games, though, and the Bulldogs don't lose at home. Gonzaga has won the past nine WCC titles. The Bulldogs are 70-4 at McCarthey Center since the facility opened in 2004.
Gonzaga received a rude welcome call when it lost 81-77 in overtime on the road to San Francisco. Since then, the Bulldogs have impressively rolled past Portland, 76-49, at home and upset Memphis on the road. They've gotten their flat performance out of the way.
The Bulldogs have their own star player in guard Matt Bouldin. He's averaging 16.7 points and 4.1 assists helping the Bulldogs rank in the top 11 nation-wide in field goal percentage.
These teams met less than a month ago in St. Mary's small but packed gym with the Gael fans taunting Gonzaga as being overrated. Even at home, though, St. Mary's couldn't stop the Bulldogs. Gonzaga shot 59.7 percent from the field and won, 89-82.
It was the fifth straight time Gonzaga has defeated St. Mary's, including three times last season. St. Mary's is good. But the Gaels still haven't learned how to beat Gonzaga.
4♦ GONZAGA
Ron Raymond
SJS (-110) vs DET
The Red Wings are coming off a poor road trip, they won 1 game and they are now 4-10 in their last 14. First game off a road trip is a tough one, but they are playing a Sharks team who got caught looking ahead last night. Nabokov is 17-3 SU in road starts this year and the Red Wings just can't step up their game, like we are use of seeing them do in the past. In fact, they remind me of the Flames, maybe their stars are staring to losing a step, I know Lidstrom is not even close to being the player he was last year!
When SAN JOSE team Played as Road team as a Favorite - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off vs Western Conference opponent - Coming off a Road loss as a Favorite; the Sharks are 9-1 SU in this role.
Tony George
Seton Hall / NotreDame Under 161.5
Should be a nice under play. There have been a ton of overs in this game over the years, but I look for that trend to reverse tonight. 5 Unders out of 7 games on the road for the Irish, and Seton Halls offense is in a funk. Like the UNDER.
Lenny Del Genio
DEN -5 vs SAN
Losing 101-89 to the Los Angeles Lakers, who were playing without Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum, Monday night is not a good sign for the San Antonio Spurs nor was losing to Denver at home, 103-89 as 5.5-point favorites, when the Nuggets were without Carmello Anthony on January 31st. The two teams will rematch in Denver Thursday night on TNT in what will be the final NBA game before the All Star Break.
The Spurs loss Monday night in Los Angeles is indicative of the way the team has been slipping down the Western Conference standings in recent weeks. Entering Tuesday night action, they are tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder for sixth place in the conference. Head Coach Greg Popovich, unlike many of his contemporaries, seems content to rest his stars, many of whom are older, in the interest of benefit over the long-term. However, considering the depth out West, they best be careful. There are currently eleven teams with a winning record, five of which are in the Spurs own division.
For most of the season, Denver has occupied the second position behind the Lakers. The Nuggets have been an excellent bet at home the last two seasons, particularly when priced as a favorite at -6.5 or above. During this time frame, they have covered on 19 of 28 occasions as long as they're not laying more than 12 points. When laying between 6.5 and 9, they are money in this price range, going 13-2 against the spread.
Keep in mind that Denver just beat the Lakers, despite the absence of Anthony and that was when LA had Kobe in the lineup. Since the start of January, Melo has missed 13 of 19 games. The team was 6-0 SU when he did suit up, prevailing by at least five points on every occasion. According to the team's official Twitter account, Anthony made it through Tuesday's shoot around with no difficulty and is expected to play against the Mavs. Therefore, we expect him to play here.
Play on Denver.