Larry Ness
Cal-Santa Barbara at Long Beach St.
Prediction: Long Beach St.
The Gauchos (Cal-Santa Barbara) travel to Long Beach to face the 49ers in a Big West Conference clash at the Walter Pyramid. UC Santa Barbara (15-6) has won three in a row and four of its last six games en route to a 6-2 conference mark, which is good for second in the Big West (UC Irvine leads at 7-2), although Long Beach St (just 10-13 overall) can move into a tie with UCSB win a win (49ers are 6-3 in league play).
Long Beach State has won the last three Big West regular season titles but not only saw its top player graduate from LY's yeam (the 6-7 Ennis led in scoring and rebounding at 16.5 & 6.7) but prior to the season, head coach Don Monson booted forward Freeland (11.0 & 4.9) plus guards King (9.8 & 4.8) and Deng (5.3). Long Beach St opened the year by beating Hawaii-Pacific but followed with NINE consecutive losses, most against strong non-conference opposition.
However, 6-5 UCLA transfer Lamb became eligible on Dec 19 and the 49ers are 9-4 in his 13 games (9-2-1 ATS).
Lamb (15.5 PPG) has been the perfect backcourt complement to PG Caffey (16.7-4.7-4.3). Spencer (9.3) starts in a three-guard lineup with the 6-9 Jennings (9.9-8.1) and 6-7 JUCO transfer Samuels (6.0-5.5).
UCSB is led by the terrific Alan Williams, the team's 6-8 center (23.1 & 11.4). He's surrounded by a pair of 6-8 forwards in Brown (7.8-4.6) and Brewe (4.4-3.9) while the backcourt has four contributors. Bryson (10.8-4.4) and JC transfer Harmon (7.2-5.1 APG) start, with Boswell (11.3) and Childress (5.3) coming off the bench.
The 49ers dropped an earlier decision to the Gauchos, 64-51, at Santa Barbara back on Jan 16, enduring one of their worst shooting nights of the season, making only 29.9% from the floor (including 5 of 27 on threes). Tyler Lamb was only 1 of 13 from the floor that night but has been a HUGE plus since joining the team.
"The Beach" have gone 5-1 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS since losing at Santa Barbara and it's "payback time" tonight. Take the home team.
Sam Martin
Minnesota at Wisconsin
Prediction: Wisconsin
The Badgers win in Illinois stopped the bleeding - along with a 1-5 SU and ATS losing skid - but their two-point home win against Michigan State should have this team's confidence back up. We scored a close winner on the Spartans in that game (as a four-point underdog), however we have to admit we were a big surprised and certainly impressed with how Wisconsin kept their composure in the final moments of that game to win at the buzzer.
Much easier home test tonight with Minnesota in town, as the Gophers have lost four straight road games in the Big Ten - at Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa, and Michigan State - and failing at the betting window in all four games as well. Badgers are 13-4 ATS at home after a home victory, and we look for that trend to continue with an easy win and cover here!
Wunderdog
Denver at IUPUI
Pick: Denver -11
The Indiana - Purdue Jaguars have had a rough season at 5-21, but that is just part of the story. The Jaguars have three wins vs. Division-3 teams, and are otherwise a brutal 2-21. They have now lost 14 straight games to Division-1 teams, and what is even worse than that is 9 of the last 10 losses have come by more than 11 points. At 12-11, Denver is certainly capable of adding to their woes as the Pioneers are playing their best basketball of the season, winning five of their last six contests. Denver is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven on the road vs. a team with a losing road record, and will lay another big loss on the Jags in this one. Play on Denver.
Steve Rich
Utah vs. USC
Play: USC +4
Utah has yet to win on the road this year. This is a young team that needs to learn how to win on the road, and what better place than USC, who are 1-9 in conference and giving up 75.1 ppg. The Utes have a strong defense only surrendering 63.3 ppg and as we all know defense travels. You can always pull out your defense to stop the other team even on those poor shooting nights. Tonight shouldn’t be a poor shooting night though as three of Utah’s top four scorers are from the LA area and I look for them to be ready for this game against the Trojans shoddy defense. It's always nice to come home! I think we are getting good value on the line here with Utah not having won a game on the road. They beat USC by 18 in Utah one month ago.
AC Dinero
Eastern Kentucky vs. Tennessee Tech
Play: Tennessee Tech +3.5
Eastern Kentucky comes in winners of 3 of their past 4 to take on a Tenn Tech team that has won 2 in a row. EKU is the better offensive team. But their defense is brutal. In fact, over the past 5 games, they have given up 53% from the floor. Tough to win on the raod , let alone cover as a favorite, playing defense like that. In addition, if thet aren't hitting shots, they will get pushed around on the boards. Take the home dog
Chris Jordan
My free play for Thursday night is on the UCLA Bruins laying the double digits to visiting Colorado.
This one being on national television, I think the Bruins (18-5, 7-3 Pac 12) will be fired up to remind everyone who the storied program in college basketball really is. This one being at Pauley Pavilion, it's the right stage and a good spot for them.
I know the Buffaloes (18-6, 7-4) are a respectable team, and are gunning for at-large bid into the dance, but UCLA already won the previous meeting between the two schools this season, a 69-56 win at Colorado’s dangerously rowdy Coors Events Center back on Jan. 16. Since the Buffas have joined the Pac-12 Conference, UCLA is a perfect 3-0 against Colorado.
UCLA is in after an impressive come-from-behind win at rival USC, 83-73, last Saturday, as the Bruins swept the regular-season series from the Trojans. Norman Powell was resilient and the catalyst in the win, scoring 17 of his season-high 21 points in the second half, to lead the Bruins back from a 41-35 halftime deficit. The Bruins, as a whole, showed great resiliency, opening the second half on a 10-0 run and building its cushion to as many as 16 points late in the second half. Team star Kyle Anderson posted his conference-leading 12th double-double against Southern Cal, totaling 15 points and 10 rebounds.
UCLA came into the week ranked 12th in the nation in scoring (82.9 ppg), ninth in field goal percentage (49.0) and fifth in assists per game (17.2), while it ranks second in the Pac-12 in points per game. The Bruins will be too much tonight.
2♦ UCLA
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Oklahoma City Thunder as the road favorite against the L.A. Lakers.
Last game before the All-Star break for both teams, so no real reason for the Thunder to hold anything back tonight against the depleted Lakers.
OKC has followed up their upset loss at Orlando with a pair of wins and covers their last 2 times out, and they have been able to keep better Laker units at bay in recent meetings, as the Thunder is 8-2 straight up the last 10 series meetings (playoffs included), and they are also 5-2 against the spread the last 7 times the teams have squared off.
Los Angeles owns just 2 straight up wins their last 11 games, and they are on a 2-6 spread slide their last 8 games. With the amount of injuries littered on the Lakers bench, and their lack of depth, easy to envision the Thunder heading to the break with a 15 points or better win at the Staples Center tonight.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Craig Davis
Thursday's free play winner is Oklahoma City over the Lakers.
I don't even know how to say this without sounding harsh... but the LA Lakers are atrocious!! They are 18-34 on the season and have just eight wins in 23 games at the Staples Center.
This is already a struggling team without Kobe Bryant... but have you seen how many players this team is missing tonight?
Steve Nash won't play tonight. Neither will Paul Gasol. So, overall, this team is without Kobe, Nash, Gasol, Young, Farmer, Meeks and Henry.
This is one of those situations where common logic tells you the Thunder should win by 30, but sometimes when it looks too easy it is.
But as you know... over the past few days I've taken the latter approach and been burned. Not tonight with OKC.
It's pretty simple, honestly. The Thunder were already a better basketball team even if the Lakers had their best starting 5 on the floor. So tonight they don't (not even close) and they are expected to stay within 10 of the Thunder?
It's just not that simple. They might hang for a while, but in the end the Thunder bench will prove how good they are as I expect them to increase the lead.
Take OKC as your free play of the day.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Scott Delaney
My free winner is on St. Mary's, laying points to San Diego, as we have a serious revenge situation in our favor. The Gaels went to Southern Cal not too long ago and got hammered by USD. Tonight it's time for payback.
This is actually a very big weekend for the Gaels, as they also host BYU, so the focus is all about basketball, and it's all about winning big. It begins with St. Mary's (18-7, 8-4 WCC) looking to carry the momentum back to Moraga, Calif., after a pair of hard-fought wins in So Cal, where the Gaels beat Loyola Marymount in L.A., 77-58 last Thursday, and Pepperdine in Malibu 69-67 in overtime.
Now with plenty of momentum, the Gaels catch USD at the right time to exact revenge, as the Toreros arrive in Moraga after losing their last three - all at home - falling to Pacific, San Francisco and Santa Clara.
The home team has covered four straight meetings, and after tonight you can make that five in a row.
2♦ ST. MARY'S
Brad Wilton
With just a 3-11 against the spread mark their last 14 conference games, it is just a smart money play to GO AGAINST the Trojans of Southern Cal right now.
I will do just that as Utah comes calling looking to improve on their 16-7 mark for the season. The Utes took the first meeting between the schools, dumping the Trojans 84-66 as the double-digit home favorite, and they do hit the land of Troy riding a two game win and cover streak.
No such luck for USC, as the Trojans latest losing streak stands at 4 in a row, and they have also lost 9 of their last 10 (that loss at Utah included), with just 3 covers in those 10 games.
Get the broom out tonight, the Utes improve their record to 17-7 with the win and cover over the going nowhere Trojans.
Have to lay it with the road favorite.
3♦ UTAH
Gabriel Dupont
My free play for tonight is on the Northwestern Wildcats plus the points against the Michigan State Spartans, as I think this will be closer than expected.
Northwestern (12-12, 5-6) is looking to even its Big Ten record, while it also seeks a fourth straight Big Ten road win tonight, when it travels to East Lansing to face Michigan State (20-4, 9-2). The Wildcats are in off a homee loss to Northwestern, while Michigan State steps to the wood off a loss as well, after falling at Wisconsin.
Why Northwestern can cover this game - Despite their recent loss to Nebrasks, the Wildcats have now beaten Indiana, Wisconsin and Minnesota on the road consecutively heading into tonight's matchup with the Spartans. That's not a bad trio, and make note, that includes the same Wisconsin team Sparty just lost to its last time out.
Why Michigan State will sputter in this game - This is dangerous territory for Northwestern, since Michigan State is in after ekeing out a 60-58 decision at Wisconsin on Sunday. The Spartans will be looking to avenge the loss, but I also think they may press a little too hard in this one, and underestimate the scrapiness of the Wildcats.
In conclusion, why Northwestern is my SMART FREE PLAY in this game - Northwestern had won four of its last five before losing to Nebraska, 53-49 at home on Saturday. So the Wildcats are not the only team in this game looking to avenge a setback. And again, I go back to their road wins, because you have to appreciate where these wins took place - historic Big Ten venues that you don't just waltz out of with a victory.
The 'Cats recorded a 54-47 victory at Indiana's famed Assembly Hall on Jan. 18. They went to Madison, Wisconsin and posted a 65-56 win inside the Badgers' Kohl Center on Jan. 29. To put that in perspective, the Badgers' home loss was just their 20th in Bo Ryan's 13 seasons as head coach, and just 13th by a Big Ten team. Then it was a 55-54 victory at Minnesota three days later, inside Williams Arena, aka The Barn. Very impressive. Let's take a shot.
4♦ NORTHWESTERN
Andrew Lange
Northwestern at Michigan State
Recommendation: Under 119.5
Thanks to a big push towards the over I see no reason not to play Northwestern under the total...again. In listening to Chris Collins, it is clear the Wildcats have zero depth and as a result must slow down the pace of the game and focus nearly all of their attention on playing defense and keeping the game close. Offensively, Northwestern has topped a point per possession once in Big Ten play whereas they've failed to top 0.90 in 8 out of 11 games. On the road against arguably the best defense in the league, it'll be a struggle to top 50 points. Michigan State meanwhile has had its issues offensively due to injuries. Tom Izzo noted that the team's desire to push the pace has been hampered because of not being able to play with the ideal personnel. The first meeting featured 94 points and 54 possessions. Even with drastic improvement on a number of fronts, topping 120 will be difficult.
Dave Mathews
Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -3.5
Carlos Boozer is back for Chicago, who could actually get a top 4 seed in the Eastern Conference, which shows you how bad that league has been. The Nets are 7-15 on the road as they could have won five in a row had they not been crushed at Detroit, 111-95 on Feb. 7. Chicago beat the Nets on the road by 17 on Christmas Day and they'll dominate them again at home.
Harry Bondi
MISSOURI (-5.5) over Arkansas
We expect a laser-focused effort from the Tigers tonight for a couple of reasons. First off, the team is mired in a three-game losing streak and needs to stop the bleeding now if it wants to play in a postseason tournament. What's more, Mizzo head coach Mike Anderson was formerly the longtime head coach at Arkansas and there is no love lost between the two. Missouri went to Arkansas in January as a six-point dog and dominated the boards to the tune of 42-26 in a five-point outright victory and we see the same advantage here tonight in the rebound department. Arkansas has a dismal record on the road the last three seasons going just 7-17 ATS and 3-22 straight up away from home and those woes will continue tonight. Lay the short number.
STEVE JANUS
Chicago Bulls -3½
It's easy to look at Chicago's blowout win in the first game of the season series and expect the Nets to bounce back and get their revenge, but you can also look at it from the perspective that Brooklyn simply doesn't matchup well with the Bulls. Offensively the Nets rank in the middle of the pack in terms of offense efficiency, which makes it difficult to get easy looks against a tough defense like Chicago. Adding to this is that while the Nets will be playing on the road with tired legs, this will be just the second game in the last four days for the Bulls.
Another factor that needs to be touched on is the Nets have not been a good road team. They are just 8-15 away from home this season. Adding to this, Brooklyn has played just six road games during their impressive 14-5 run and are just 3-3 in those games. It's also worth mentioning that they haven't played consecutive road games since the first week of January. I have my concerns that the Nets strong play of late is a bit of fools gold and when the road games start to pick back up, this team is going to struggle to stay in the playoff race.
There's a couple of key systems here favoring Chicago. First, road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BROOKLYN) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are just 54-101 (39%) ATS since 1996. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 85 points or less are 78-40 (66%) ATS since 1996.