Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
VCU/ UMass Under 147: Uptempo pace doesn't always mean high scoring games. Just look at these two teams. UMass checks in at 21st in the nation in tempo and yet their games have averaged 142.3 ppg overall. The Minutemen do score 72.6 ppg, but they don't shoot all that well (42.9%). On the road the minutemen put up just 66.9 ppg on 42.2% shooting, with their road games averaging just 132.7 ppg. For VCU, they re 92nd in the nation in tempo and their games have averaged 140.4 ppg overall and 137.9 ppg at home. VCU does score 77.7 pg at home, but UMass allows 65.8 ppg on 38.5 % shooting away from home. Now we know that both these teams can score, but they also can play defense as well. I already stated UMass' road defense. Well VCU allows just 60.7 ppg at home and they have allowed just 62.9 ppg overall. Umass is 95th in the nation in defensive efficiency, while VCU is 42nd in that category. Some other stuff to consider... UMass hits 64.6% from FT line on the road, while VCU hits just 69.1% at home... Neither team shoots the 3-ball well and both defend the arc very well... VCU's last 5 games have averaged 139.8 ppg and just 3 of their 13 home games have put up more than tonight's total, with one of those games being in OT and the other 2 vs FDU and Longwood, games in which they scored 90+ in and won by 29 and 37. Neither of that will happen here... UMass is 8-0-1 to the under in their last 9 road games and 7 of their 8 road games this year have failed to top 139 points in a game. The Numbers just don't add up to a game in the 140's, let alone nearly 150.
Northwestern +17.5 over OHIO STATE: I realize that the Buckeyes are probably angry off their home loss to the Hoosiers, but I also see this as a flat spot for OSU. The Buckeyes are off BB games vs Michigan and Indiana and they have a road date vs Wisconsin, followed by home games vs Minnesota and Michigan State on deck. This is a tough stretch for them and smack dab in the middle is a Northwestern squad that is just 4-7 in Big 10 play and has been blown out in their last 3 conference road games. Still the Cats can be a sneaky team and are capable of keeping this one close, especially behind a defense that has allowed just 62.1 ppg on the year. Look for at best a 13 point OSU win.
Oakland/ South Dakota Over 157.5: This would be a fun one to watch. Both teams play uptempo and neither plays good defense. The first meeting this year saw 175 points scored and we should easily get into the 160's with one. Oakland is 67th in the nation in tempo and they have averaged 71.4 pg on the year, including 81.2 ppg in their last 5 games. They have averaged just 67.8 ppg on the road, but this South Dakota defense is bad as they have allowed 79.2 ppg at home and 77 ppg in their last 5 games overall. Oakland's road games have averaged just 142 points, but in 2 of their conference road games vs uptempo teams (South Dakota State and Neb-Omaha) they had scores of 155 and 177. South Dakota games have been very high scoring at home, with an average of 158.5 ppg put up. Not only have they allowed 79.2 ppg at home, but they have scored 79.3 ppg on their home floor and thy shoot 41.7% from long range at home. Oakland comes in allowing 74.2 ppg on the road and 71.2 ppg in their last 5 games. In those last 5 games they have also allowed 50% shooting overall and 37.7% from long range. Both teams are ranked 281st or worse in defensive efficiency and both teams can score a ton. Should be a fun uptempo game with at least 160 points being scored.
MINNESOTA -5.5 over Wisconsin: Minnesota is a solid team overall and at home they are 12-2 and have outscored their foes by 17 ppg. Wisconsin is normally a good road team, but so far they are just 3-4 in their true road games and they are off BB OT games, including beating Michigan in their last game. Could be a bit of a flat spot for them here. Minnesota has lost 2 in a row and this is a series they have struggled in this series for a while but after beating Michigan in their last game and having Ohio State on deck, I feel this is a great spot for Minnesota to get a resume building win over a solid top 20 team. Look for Minnesota to win by 9 or more here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Lakers/ Clippers Under 200: Last night the Clippers played Houston and they allowed just 86 points in that game. Even though this is considered a road game for them, the Clippers have still allowed just 92.5 ppg in this building this year. The Lakers haven’t played great defense overall this year, but they do so in this building, allowing just 96.5 ppg and teams shoot just 31.1% from long range vs them in this building. The Lakers have slowed their offense down a bit and they come in averaging just 95.5 ppg in their last 6 games, while the Clippers have averaged just 96.9 ppg over their last 5 games. Both teams play very good defense in this building and I feel that will be more than enough to keep this one from hitting 200 points .
Harry Bondi
UMASS (+12) over Virginia Commonwealth
After an easy winner in the NBA with the Nets last night, tonight we go back to the college ranks and take advantage of an inflated price. Virginia Commonwealth has been overvalued all season, as seen by its 6-11 ATS record and 5-10 mark at the betting window when laying points. UMass won't be intimidated by the Rams' "Havoc" style of play, because that's exactly the pace of play it thrives in with junior point guard Chaz Williams running the show. UMass has won 13 of 16 straight-up and those three losses have been by eight points, three points and one point. This is a difficult team to blow out, so we'll gladly take the double digits in a game that will be close throughout.
Alf Musketa
LA Clippers at LA Lakers
Recommendation: Over
Usually when two rivals face off they are familiar with one another’s style and roster. As a result, these types of games have a tendency to go under the total. But in this particular matchup I see plenty of reasons to look the other way.
It's NBA All-Star week and we have seen some teams throw in the towel when they are down, but a lot of those squads were bottom feeder teams like Charlotte and Orlando. Also during All-Star week we've noticed that defenses tend to be lackadaisical and less physical – none of the top players want to get injured before the festivities and Sunday’s All-Star game. So tonight we don't envision anyone on the Lakers trying to block a Blake Griffin slam dunk or commit a flagrant foul when Kobe Bryant drives the lane.
Each time the Clippers and Lakers meet they are playing on their home court at the Staples Center. Tonight the Lakers are the designated home team, and the linesmakers do not account for a home edge, but I think they have missed the number with the total for this contest. Both teams get to shoot at the friendly confines of their home baskets. They also know the court sidelines, court bounces and advantages of the backboard. When these two teams met last month the Clippers won 107-102.
When handicapping the side or total involving a team that played the night before, (the Clippers hosted Houston last night), closely look at the minutes played by not just the starters but the bench as well. All-Star guard Chris Paul played 31 minutes and you might think that is a lot for someone coming back from a knee injury, but we are looking for 37 minutes or more. (A real red flag is when they play 40 minutes or more and must travel the next game.) Blake Griffin played 32 minutes, Chauncey Billups only 20, Caron Butler 29 and the rest of the team, including the Clippers’ solid bench, played double digits – I see that as a good thing; you want your bench contributing, playing well and resting the key starters.
Since Paul’s return, the Clippers have scored 106, 107 and 102 in their last three games. If Steve Nash is going to guard CP3 we expect at least 25 points. It is very apparent that against good teams the Lakers are atrocious defensively. Recently they gave up 116 points to Boston on 53% shooting, and 107 to the Miami Heat on 55% shooting. In the Lakers’ last game against Phoenix, Kobe posted only four points. We look for him to rebound closer to his season average of 27 points tonight.
Due to the fact that the Clippers played last night we have to believe that a good portion of the Lakers strategy is to try and run fast breaks and force an up-tempo game. Combine that with the other handicapping notes above and we are on the OVER.