Sean Murphy
L.A. Clippers @ Portland
PICK: L.A. Clippers -2.5
This is a tough spot for the Blazers, as they return home to play their third game in three nights, fresh off a surprising win over the Warriors in Oakland last night.
Ordinarily, that victory wouldn't have come as a surprise, but with LaMarcus Aldridge sidelined, it certainly did.
Keep in mind, Portland had just dropped an ugly 124-109 loss against the lowly Wizards on Tuesday night.
While the Blazers did bounce back on Wednesday, it's worth noting that the win was essentially a product of one strong quarter. Outside of their 37-point second quarter, they scored only 56 points.
Even with Aldridge in the lineup, Portland had gone a subpar 5-6 ATS over their last 11 games prior to last night's victory.
The Clippers may not be playing their best basketball of the season right now, but they're not far off, having gone 5-2 SU and ATS over their last seven games.
It's interesting to note that the SU winners has won ATS in all but two of the Clippers 27 games this season, a trend that should continue given the short pointspread tonight.
Note that this will be the third meeting between these two teams this season, with the home side winning each of the first two. Of course, LaMarcus Aldridge played a big role in each of those contests, while the Clippers were actually without Chauncey Billups for their early season win over the Blazers (he is of course sidelined for the rest of the season with an achilles injury).
The Clippers should be highly-motivated to deliver a strong performance in front of the TNT cameras after laying an egg on the national stage in a 112-91 loss to Denver two weeks ago.
While both teams are playing on no rest, it's worth pointing out that Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS in that situation this season, while Portland is 4-6 ATS.
Sam Martin
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls
We nearly pulled the trigger on Chicago tonight by making the Bulls a premium selection, but this line was a bit too high to justify a 15* rating. Still, we do like the Bulls chances of winning this game big, especially in the quick revenge spot after losing in Boston just a few days ago. That game was the last in a nine-game road trip for the Bulls, who are now back at home while Boston starts a long road trip here today. And the Bulls shot under 40% for the first time in a month during that loss - definitely not the norm for this team and we do not expect a repeat performance, especially here on their home court where they are 10-1 SU and winning by 13 points per game. Bulls get their revenge!
Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
Arizona -2.5 over WASHINGTON STATE: The Cats are rolling right now as they come winners of in 5 of their last 6 games, which includes a 24 point home win over Wazzu back in January and BB road wins over Cal and Stanford. Arizona has been playing some really good defense of late as they have allowed just 60.8 ppg on 39.9% shooting in their last 5 games. Arizona has had a really good time within the Pac 12 as they are 9-4 and have held those opponents to just 59.5 ppg on 39.1 % shooting, while scoring 68.3 ppg, which creates an +8.8 scoring margin. Washington State has not been that great in the conference as they are just 5-8 and have been outscored by 3.4 ppg in those games. They have played well at home this year, where they are 9-2 and have scored 75 ppg, but in their last 2 at home they are just 1-1 and have scored just 60 ppg in the two games. The Cougars are allowing 13 ppg more in conference play than the Cats and i feel that is where the game will be won, with defense. Arizona is playing much better than the Cougars right now and they should walk away with a solid win here. KEY TRENDS--- ARIZONA is 16-5 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons, while WASHINGTON ST is 6-17 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
MICHIGAN STATE -5.5 over Wisconsin: When this line came out last night i jumped on it as I felt the Spartans should have been favored by 8+ in this one. Sure the Badgers can play excellent defense, but this team just can't score enough to think they have a chance at keeping it close vs a very good Spartans team. Wisconsin is one of the better defensive teams in the nation as they have allowed just 50.3 ppg overall and 55.6 ppg on the road, but their defensive play isn't in question here. We know they can defense, but this team just can't score. The Badgers come in averaging just 59.2 ppg on 39.1 % shooting overall and 29.% shooting from beyond the arc in their last 5 games, while in their Big 10 road games (Regulation Only) they have averaged just 55.6 ppg. Now here is where it gets really bad for the Badgers. The Spartans have been playing better defense than them of late. Sparty comes in allowing just 50.6 ppg on a mere 35% shooting in their last 5 games and that includes allowing just 48 points on 26% shooting to a very good Ohio State offense in their last game. The Buckeyes average 70+ ppg on the year so what will this Spartans defense do to the pathetic Badgers attack tonight? MSU is 6-0 in Big 10 home games and have outscored those opponents by 20 ppg. Sparty averages 79.8 ppg at home, including 77.8 ppg in their Big 10 home games. ok so we know that both teams play great defense, but the Spartans can score on the Badgers, but they Badgers sorry ass offensive play will not come up with nearly enough points to keep this one close.
California/ Oregon Under 140: This has been a bit of a high scoring series over the years, but thanks to some solid defense by both teams, this year will be different. The Cal Bears have allowed just 60 ppg overall on the year and 61.8 within the Pac-12, but at home on the year they have allowed a mere 54.2 ppg, including just 57.6 ppg in the Pac-12 home games. Cal's Pac 12 home games have averaged just 126.3 ppg on the year, while their conference games overall 134.2 ppg. Oregon has been playing average defense this year as they have allowed 66.5 ppg overall and 65.2 ppg in their last 9 conference games, so they too have the ability to keep the scoring down in this one. Both teams have averaged 70+ ppg on the year, but this is in the Bears home court and with the way they play defense at home I just don't see this one getting out of hand. They will control the pace and not look to run with this team. while Oregon will come up with enough stops to keep the Cal offense from piling up too many points. I don't expect either team to hit 70 points in this one.
Florida International/ Ark Little Rock Over 125: Writeup to come. (Added)
2 UNIT PLAY
DENVER -10 over UL Lafayette:This Denver team is tough at hoe, where they have gone 11-2 and have outscored their opponents by 10.2 ppg, including going 4-1 in the Sun Belt at home, with the 4 wins all coming by at least 13 points. UL Laff is a game ahead of Denver in the Sun Belt standings so this is a huge game for the home team and I expect them to take this game by 13+ points as well.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Vanderbilt -3.5 over OLE MISS: Vanderbilt's scoring tandem has led it to a 7-2 record in January. After a slow 1-2 start to February, the Commodores are poised for another run. Ole Miss could slide into a four-way tie for third place in the league if it picks up the victory. Stopping Holloway is going to be difficult for Vandy, but the Rebels will have even more trouble stopping ******* and Taylor.
NC State/ Duke Over 151.5: Play Over - All teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (DUKE) having won 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent that has won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. This play is 71-34 the last 5 seasons.
Andrew Lange
Oregon at California
Play: Oregon +11
I think we can take advantage of all of the damage Cal handed out to opponents on its home court during the non-conference and step in and play a surging Oregon squad as a double-digit underdog. A closer look at Cal's home results show that when the competition is halfway decent, the wins haven’t come by big margins. The Golden Bears beat Colorado by 7, Stanford by 10 and lost to Arizona by 4. Their most impressive win was more spot-oriented as they took down UCLA 85-69 with the Bruins off a one-point loss two nights prior. Oregon has actually passed Cal for the league's best offense (109.5 points per possession) and the Ducks have for the most part played solid defense this season. This is an important game for both sides, especially Oregon who theoretically is still in the PAC-12 title hunt or perhaps an at-large berth. I expect a big effort from the road side which gives us value with +11.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit New Jersey Nets +8.5
Indiana is really struggling. It has lost 5 in a row, and it's best player, Danny Granger, is dealing with an ankle injury that could keep him out again tonight. It is worth noting that these 5 losses have come by an average of 9.2 points. The Nets have lost 7 in a row but 4 of those losses have come by 7 points or less. They will be very motivated tonight as well considering they dropped the season's first 2 meetings with Indiana. Keep in mind that they only lost by 7 points in Indiana when these these met last Jan. 31. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 overall, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Also, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. With these things in mind, I just can't justify laying this many points with Indiana right now. In addition, plays against home favorites playing 9 or more games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team, are 31-12 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 8.3 points but have only won by an average of 3.3. We'll take the points
Dave Price
1 Unit Wisconsin +6
The Badgers are playing much better basketball than they were early last month when they lost to Michigan State in overtime. They have won 7 of their last 8 and can move into a tie for second place in the Big Ten with a victory this evening. Michigan State is 15-0 at home and is being overvalued because of it. The Spartans are a poor 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. We'll take the Badgers.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit New Jersey Nets +8.5
The Pacers can't be trusted laying this many points against anyone with the way they're playing right now. We're talking about a team that is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games and 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games as a favorite. The Nets have lost 7 in a row but 4 of those defeats were by 7 points or fewer. Also, the Nets lost by just 7 points when they visited Indiana 16 days ago. That's when Danny Granger was healthy and the Pacers were 14-6. We'll bet the Nets.
Steve Janus
Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5
While the Hawkeyes beat Penn State by 13-points at home just a couple weeks ago, I don't think they will have what it takes to sweep the season series. The Hawkeyes are just 2-7 on the road this season. In their last four conference road games they lost by 34 at Michigan St, 7 at Purdue, 14 at Indiana, and 19 at Northwestern. Iowa simply decides to not play defense on the road, as they come in giving up just over 81 ppg on the road.
Iowa hasn't played since last Thursday and a long layoff usually leads to a poor performance by the Hawkeyes. Iowa is just 12-30 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
Look for the Nittany Lions to have a much more efficient game offensively than they did in Iowa City. Penn State is also a much better team at home. They just beat Nebraska by 16 points on Saturday at home and have a couple other big home wins over Purdue and Illinois.
Penn State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Tony George
Arizona -2½
The Wildcats take to the road here and I like the number. Sitting at third in conference, every win counts, especially on the road and this is a winnable game for AZ. Arizona has a small 4 game winning streak and in some losses recently, have competed and had some bad beats late in games. I think their record is deceiving and oddsmakers left the keys in the car on this line, and I am stealing it for a Free Play. Last time these two hooked up AZ won by 24 points, I had this line at -6 in my power ratings. AZ has a huge rebounding edge in this game and I like their defense as of late allowing just 60 ppg their last 5.
Craig Trapp
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers -2
Teams have split this year with both winning on each others home court. Clippers are playing so good right now, Paul has been even better than could have been expected. Clippers dominate the middle here as Paul works the pick and roll to get easy shots for his bigs. POR has lost to lowly WASH in last week and have just been out of sync, think tonight the third game in three days just kills them.
GoodFella
Oregon +11
IMO a few too many points to give the Ducks here. Oregon is looking to avenge a 17 pt home blowout loss to this Cal team from Jan. 8th & Oregon can be extremely dangerous, especially if they are hitting their 3-balls. If Oregon can knock down 38% or above beyond the arc tonight, this game should be tight IMO. Cal does have a "revenge game" up next as they host Oregon St who beat them at Oregon St (92-85) back in early January. I look for Oregon to give Cal a battle tonight, and to stay with in 11 points.
Teddy Covers
Boston @ Chicago
PICK: Boston
Make no mistake about it. Right now, Chicago is not the type of team that should be laying eight points against another Eastern Conference contender without Derrick Rose in the lineup. Chicago has been on the ‘lucky’ side of the schedule equation with Rose sitting out with back spasms. Rose has missed eight previous games, and Chicago is 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS in those contests. But when the Bulls have been asked to step up in class, it’s a different story. Against other winning teams, without Rose in the lineup, the Bulls are 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS including a four point loss as road favorites at Boston this past weekend.
Chicago struggled defensively in that loss to the Celtics, allowing 49% shooting from the floor. They struggled defensively again versus lowly Sacramento on Tuesday, allowing the Kings to score a season high 115 points on 47% shooting. With a losing ATS mark at home this season, this price looks more than a tad bit too high for tonight’s short turnaround rematch.
The Celtics followed up their upset win over Chicago on Sunday with a miserable showing at home against Detroit last night. The lowly Pistons won the battle of the boards by eleven and hit half of their shots from inside the arc. Paul Pierce, following the defeat: “It’s very disappointing. I am very surprised by our inconsistent play. But maybe this team needs a little road trip to get it together.” It’s surely worth noting that these veteran Celtics are a perfect 5-0 ATS as underdogs of four points or more this year, stepping up in their ‘step up’ games. That’s a trend worth riding tonight. Take Boston.
Triple Threat Sports
Maryland (-) over Boston College
It is noted that BC is 6-0 ATS on the road this season, but they have lost by 23, 14, and 17 points in three of those covers...so that 6-0 ATS road mark is quite misleading. Terps are not a great team, but should be totally focused for this one as Turgeon does not want to give away any winnable contests. Our Power Ratings call for a 12-14 point win for the Turtles here.
Tom Freese
Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Boston Celtics +7½
This is too many points for the Celtics to be getting as the Bulls are still without Derrick Rose. Boston is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season when taking four or more points from the oddsmakers. They just beat Chicago outright 95-91 on Sunday. The Celtics will be eager to erase the bitter taste of last night's home loss to the Pistons from their mouths. Boston is the #1 defensive team in the league entering Wednesday, allowing just 87.1 PPG.
Hollywood Sports
Arizona at Washington St.
Play: Washington St.
The Cougars (13-12) may have lost two straight games -- and four of their last six contests -- after their 78-69 loss at Oregon last Saturday but they have also played four of their last six games on the road. Washington State returns home for this one where they are 9-2 with an average winning margin of +9.3 PPG. The Cougars have covered the spread in 5 straight games on their home court. And while Arizona is 6-3 on the road this season, Washington State has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Cougars were definitely stung by the season-ending injury to their super 6th-man Faisal Aiden who had been their second-leading scorer. But his absence has seen 6'10" junior forward Brock Motum continue to step up his game as he is now 2nd in the Pac-12 with his 17.4 PPG scoring average. The Wildcats blew out the Cougars back on January 26th by an 85-61 score in a game where Washington State shot just 34.6% from the field. The Cougars should play much better on the offensive end in this rematch as they average 75.0 PPG on strong 49.8% shooting on their home court this season. Arizona benefited from their 50.8% shooting clip in the first meeting between these two teams -- but they are unlikely to repeat that performance tonight since they are converting only 43.9% of their shots when on the road. The home team has covered the spread in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams -- and look for that trend to continue in this one. Take the points with Washington State as the home underdog in this one.