Ben Burns
Nashville Predators @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Detroit Red Wings
Talk about no respect. The Red Wings have won 21 straight at home. Tuesday's 3-1 victory, their 21st, broke the single-season mark of 20 that Boston had set back on 1929-30 and which Philadelphia had matched in the 1976.
Given that type of home ice dominance, one would expect them to be very steep favorites. Yet, they've only opened as mid-sized favorites. I feel that's providing solid value.
While the streak will eventually come to an end, the Wings still have unsettled business. That's because those 1929-30 Bruins still have a 22-game home winning streak, one which spanned two seasons. Another couple of victories and the Wings can erase that one too.
The Wings also have motivation to keep winning, as they're battling for top spot in the regular season.
As coach Mike Babcock said. "Anytime you're in a race like we are, you need the points ... "
Captain Nicklas Lidstrom echoed his coach's comments: "It's something we're going to cherish, but we've talked about getting more points to stay where we are in the standings ... "
The Wings also easily (4-1) defeated the Predators in this season's lone meeting here. That brought them to 14-6 the last 20 times that they were a host in the series. Consider laying the wood.
Accuscore
Boston Celtics (+8) vs. Chicago Bulls
This game will undoubtedly be a battle of defenses. The Celtics give up the least amount of points in the league at 87.1 points per game and the Bulls aren’t far behind at 88 points allowed per game. The Bulls will be without MVP Derrick Rose thanks to back spasms. The Bulls have proven they can win without their star, and their chances of getting the W look good at home. However, I don’t expect Chicago, if it wins, to win by anywhere near eight points. AccuScore gives the Boston ATS pick a forecasted percentage of 53.6.
Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers: Over 188.5
This one is tough. There are three key factors in this game. First, the Clippers are very good and are capable of scoring a lot, but also tend to give up a lot of points. The last time Los Angeles played Portland, the final score was 105-97 in Portland’s favor. Second, the Blazers have one of the best home court advantages in basketball. They play much better in front of their crazed and devoted fans. Third, Portland will be without star LaMarcus Aldridge, and will miss his 22 points per game. The missing star makes the under pick enticing, but I think the other Blazers will step up in his absence and will score enough points to send the total over 188.5 points.
Accuscore
Michigan State -6 vs. Wisconsin
The best team Wisconsin has beaten on the road is probably Purdue or Minnesota in overtime. Michigan State will be a definite step-up in the Izzone. Five of Wisconsin’s six losses are to top-20 teams: UNC, Marquette, Michigan State (by 3 in OT at home) and Michigan. That tells me that Wisconsin performs great against teams it is clearly better than, but struggles against the elite teams in the country. This pick is complete belief in Tom Izzo molding this team into an elite squad late in the season, and home court advantage allowing the Spartans to pull away late.
San Diego -5.5 vs. Portland
These two teams have combined for just 16 wins on the year, but USD is clearly better on offensive and has a relative strength in 3-point shooting. Portland’s has best offensive trait appears to be free throw shooting. Portland has only won one game on the road this year. San Diego is favored by 10 points by the computer, and covers the spread 62.1 percent of the time. The ATS record for Portland games is 16-8 (66.7 percent) and 13-8 (61.9 percent) in San Diego games.
Stanford -4 vs. Oregon State
Five of Stanford’s seven Pac-12 wins have come at home. Oregon State is just 2-5 on the road in-conference with one win coming in-state at Oregon and the other at bottom-feeder Utah. The Beavers have also lost three of its last four and just got swept at home by the Washington schools. If Stanford guards Aaron Bright and Chasson Randle take care of the ball against Oregon State’s pressure, home court should be enough for the Cardinal to come away with the win.
Accuscore
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers are favorites at -155, and AccuScore agrees. The forecast has Philly winning with a forecasted percentage of 66.7. The Flyers haven’t been incredible at home, scoring 3.37 goals while allowing 3.11 goals. The kicker in this game is how awful the Sabres are away from Buffalo. They score just 1.85 goals in unfriendly territory while surrendering 3.08 goals. If the Flyers win by only one goal I’ll be disappointed.
Minnesota Wild
This is an interesting matchup as the Wild has struggled mightily as of late. Minnesota has lost five straight, including two losses to the Columbia Blue Jackets. Despite the losing streak, the Wild is slight favorites at -111. AccuScore gives Minnesota even better odds with a forecasted winning percentage of 60.3. I think it’s time Minnesota added another one to the win column, and expect a close game that ends in the Wild’s favor.