Free Picks: Service Plays for Thursday, February 17,2011

Matt Fargo

Richmond vs Temple
Pick: Richmond +6.5

This is a battle for second place in the Atlantic Ten and to keep place with Xavier for first place. This has the making of a classic and the underdog comes with a lot of value. Richmond was picked by many to win the A-10 this season following the great run it has last year but a sloe start hurt the Spiders. If you consider a 2-1 start slow that is. A loss at home against Rhode Island was surprising but Richmond went on to win three straight before getting pounded at Xavier. The Spiders have responded with four straight wins. Temple always brings a strong team to the court and this year is no exception. The Owls are 19-5 on the season and actually got into the top 25 two weeks ago as they have reeled off six straight wins albeit against some pretty weak competition. Temple is a perfect 11-0 at home this season but it only has one quality win and that came against Georgetown way back on December 9th. I don’t want to say that Temple doesn’t deserve its ranking but I don’t think it deserves it more than Richmond does. While Temple has been unbeatable at home, the Spiders have been unbeatable on the road in conference action. They are 5-0 this season with all but one of those being lopsided victories and going back further, Richmond is 14-2 in its last 16 Atlantic Ten road games which is very impressive. The issue with Richmond is that it has a low RPI because of unimpressive wins against teams outside the conference that were supposed by be good but has been horrible including Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Arizona St. With the solid road play for Richmond, it comes as no surprise the Spiders are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of fewer than seven points. Both teams bring strong defenses into this game and that usually favors the underdog and it certainly does in this case knowing that Richmond is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games against teams allowing 64 or fewer ppg. Against elite teams the Spiders have been just as good going 11-1 ATS against teams outscoring opponents by eight or more ppg. 3* Richmond Spiders

Jim Feist

Mavericks / Suns
Pick: Over

Final game before the break and with this one on TV, look for an uptempo game featuring Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki. The Over is 7-3 in Mavericks last 10 games playing on 0 days rest, and the Over is 11-5 in Suns last 16 vs. NBA Southwest. And when these teams meet the over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Phoenix. Play the Mavs/Suns Over the total.

Frank Jordan

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Dallas Mavericks -1

Phoenix has won four of five with two wins a piece over Utah and Golden State, but now they host a tough Dallas team. Dallas comes in having won nine of 10 games and are 18-8 on the road. Phoenix is only 16-12 at home and won last time out by just one point. Look for Dallas to be too much for the Suns, who have been on the rise, to handle as the Mavericks win the last game before the All-Star break. Play Dallas

Scott Spreitzer

Washington State @ Arizona
PICK: Arizona -8.5

Arizona has won six in a row SU, going 5-0-1 ATS. The Wildcats have a leader in forward Derrick Williams who averages over 19 ppg and 8 rpg. Ten players have seen action in all 25 games and all 10 players average in double-figures in minutes played per game! Seven players average between 6.4 ppg and 19.2 ppg. The 'Cats are outstanding on the perimeter at both ends of the floor, making 40.8% of their 3-pointers, while allowing opponents to make just 27.5% of their "threes"! They’ll prove too much for a Washington State team that doesn't shoot too well from the perimeter and have their problems on the glass. The Cougars have covered just 8 of the last 30 (2 pushes) as a road underdog, while Arizona is on a 4-0-1 ATS run when laying points. The Wildcats have a date with Washington up next, but there will be no lookahead in this one. I’m laying the points with Arizona on Thursday.

Ray Monohan

Santa Clara vs. Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga -14

Tonight from the McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane Washington we get the Santa Clara Broncos vs. winners of 4 of their last 5 games the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Gonzaga returns home for the final time in WCC play this week facing a Broncos team that beat them on the road the first time around. Looking at this games stats on paper shows a huge edge for the Zags in PPG, FG%, FT%, Def, Boards, and overall Bench Points, I do see all of the above making a huge difference tonight. The Bulldogs are 11-4 at home this season, 7-3 against conference opponents, and 10-6 against non-conference opponents. There's no place like home, and the MAC has become quite the home since it opened as the Zags are 86-6. At home the Zags are averaging 79.0 PPG scoring, and holding teams to 62.9 PPG scored on D. Prior to this year's victory, the Broncos had not defeated the Bulldogs since Feb. 12, 2007. I look for more of the same tonight with a revenge minded Gonzaga team winning by 14+. Some trends I like tonight. SC are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. SC are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. win. Zags are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Zags are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater.

EZWINNERS

UCLA Bruins +1.5

The Stanford Cardinals are struggling as they have lost six out of their last ten games and one of the biggest reasons why is rebounding, or should I say the lack of rebounding. Stanford is being out rebounded on a regular basis and that is bad news when facing a UCLA team that really hits the boards hard. The Bruins have out-rebounded their opponents in their last ten games and UCLA is 9-1 in those games while posting a 6-3-1 record against the spread. The Bruins have also dominated this series against Stanford as they have won seven out of the past eight meetings between these two teams and I look for that to continue tonight. Take the points.

Brent Brooks

Penn St. -2

Penn State has lost all of two home games since conference play began. Purdue very early in B10 play and by 3 to Michigan who is playing (relatively) great basketball as we saw on Wednesday night. Do we expect Minnesota who had lost four in a row prior to winning at Iowa to beat a bigger, more experienced Lions team? My belief is that the Iowa game was a build up of frustration being vented in one game. Here the Gophers are, still on the road, knowing they have two home games coming up - how focused will they be? Talor Battle has been upgraded to Probable. He's a gamer and his supporting cast is much improved this year. Taking the home team here.

Denver -13.5

Just like the Santa Clara play is too many points, I am convinced conversely that this is too few. Its not simply because Monroe has lost 8 in a row and 12 of 13 in Sun Belt play, its how they have wilted in games on the road once they trail. Its one thing to lose, and another to roll over and the Warhawks just don't have fight in them away from home. With the way Denver can lambaste opponents at home with a scoring barrage unrivaled in the Sun Belt, this line is one of the few that stand out as too short during a time of the season where bad teams get undervalued. This goes to show us that its really a card to card, game to game, open ended proposition. Taking the Hallam Brothers and the rest of the Pioneers in an absolute rout.

Northwestern -8

The thinking here is fairly straightforward. Shurna is back and the Cats are so much better at home. Iowa is young and struggles on the road and they also represent the bottom half of the Big 10 that NW seems to always beat up on. Iowa will be much improved next year - mark it down. However, right now guys like Melsahn Basabe who will become the face of Hawkeye ball for the next few years are getting a lesson in how tough conference road games can be. The Wildcats aren't ones to slow the game down with a lead in an overly cautious fashion - especially at home. This game has double digit win written all over it.

San Francisco +10

Despite being 8-2 in WCC play, the Dons continue to get zero respect from oddsmakers. Yes, they are a young team headed into a very tough place to play but they've shown the ability to prevent games from getting out of hand. This line is asking us if they will get laughed out of the building and I simply don't believe they will. Cody Doolin matches up fairly well against the diminutive Tim Douglas. This is key because as Douglas more minutes instead of Waterford, the Pilots have become more dangerous as his drives become dish out chances for Stohl, Mitrovic, etc. If USF can keep Douglas out of the lane (Doolin has the quickness and the penchant for theivary to muddy up that flow a bit) and the other USF perimeter defenders can keep a hand in the face of the aforementioned marksmen, then this is a game instead of a rout. The Dons are a young team that has had ATS value all year and we back them yet again without hesitation.

Santa Clara +14.5

A big name school, check. At home, check. In revenge mode, check.

But even with all of that mojo, this is too many points to give the Broncos. They are simply too proficient from the stripe and have remained too competitive in most of their defeats to lay 14.5.

Gonzaga has taken a big leap forward as David Stockon gets more PG minutes. Teams have to respect his shot more the Goodson. Outside of Stockon, I would say that only Sacre and Dower have lived up to expectations. Case in point - doesn't it look nutty that Elias Harris and Stephen Gray were on the Wooden List? From Sweet 16 to NIT? Gonzaga is on the bubble of being off the bubble.

As for the Broncos, they qualify as a live dog for me because of how competitive they were losing at USF and at home vs the Gaels - both games by 6 points (our first magic number). They are coming off a win at San Diego (a team playing much better ball though that's not saying much). With Kevin Foster having a brilliant season, the Broncos have a weapon that was injured for most of last year at prime efficiency. He has had only 2 games where he didn't score in double figures all season and most of his games are 15 points or more.

If you believe Gonzaga will run away and hide and the Broncos will fold up shop early, don't make this play but I simply don't see this game that way. The Broncos have the ability to remain on the radar all game and while they may not win straight up, they should keep this one out of the laugher category thanks to Foster and their team FT%. This play is our 2* Freebie for Thursday.

JR ODonnell

NYI / BOS Over 5.5

The 12-29 NY Isles are a poor ice club , but they are lighting the lamp!! These 2 clubs are going in opposite directions as the Bruins are POOR 0-3 the last 3 & the New York Islanders are a surging 4-0 the last 4.... The Isles net minder "Nate Lawson" has allowed 3 goals or more in each of his last 5 starts & Bruins Tuukka Rask from Finland checks in @ a poor GAA 2.98 and has a GAA over 3 goals the last 5 games. MAJOR Ouch........ The O'ster does not move on many Ice plays , but when he does they $$$$$$$$. The Isles have been an Over machine lately & the Bruins are coming off a brutal 4-3 loss vs the Leafs.. They score tonight & they have played 5-1 Over the last 6!!! The Over is 18-7-1 the last 26 overall... Boooom goes the Over

VEGAS EXPERTS

San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls

The last three meetings between these teams have all gone Under, including a 103-94 Spurs' win back on November 17th. The Bulls are a very strong 12-1 Under this season when seeking revenge. They are also 14-6 Under vs. teams with a winning record. Low scoring game before the Break.

Play on: Under

Stan Lisowski

Denver

The Pioneers have pasted the War Hawks on this floor, winning 4 of the 5 games in the series by double digits. UL Monroe has lost 5 of 6 Sunbelt road games by an average also in double digits, while putting up just 55 points on the average in the 13 road games they have played overall this year. Denver is winning their conference home games by a 15.5 average margin.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Clemson -2.5

Clemson has had its way with NC State recently. With last month's 10-point win over the Wolfpack, the Tigers have now won the last six regular season meetings. Motivated by a tough two-point loss to UNC, expect the Wolfpack to take their frustrations out on the Tigers this evening. When valued as a dog, NC State hasn't been man's best friend. In fact, the Pack are a lousy 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games when catching points. They are even 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that the Wolfpack are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games versus a team with a winning record. Recently, the Tigers have been a strong investment coming off a defeat. In fact, they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss. We'll take Clemson in this bounce back spot tonight. Lay the points.

Rocketman

Western Carolina @ Appalachian State
Play On: Appalachian State -2

Western Carolina is 23-48 ATS since 1997 and 8-20 ATS last 3 years after a win against a conference opponent. Appalachian State is 7-2 SU at home this year where they are scoring 78.1 points per game. Appalachian State is 22-6 SU overall vs Western Carolina since 1997 including 11-2 SU at home. Catamounts are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games following a SU win. Catamounts are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games. Catamounts are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. Catamounts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Mountaineers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Mountaineers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU win. Mountaineers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Southern. Home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Catamounts are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Catamounts are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Appalachian St. We'll recommend a small play on Appalachian State tonight!

Info Plays

3* San Francisco +10.5

Reasons why San Francisco will cover:

1) San Francisco is 7-3 in conference play this season, and while they are just 3-9 on the road, they are an excellent play getting 10.5 points against a team they beat by 7 at home earlier this season.

2) San Francisco has a history of keeping it much closer than the oddsmakers give them credit at Portland, as they are 7-5 ATS in their last 12 trips. Portland has been overvalued all season, and are just 4-6 ATS in conference play.

3) San Francisco on the other hand has been extremely undervalued in conference play, and as a result they are 8-2 ATS. San Francisco is also 9-1 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season.

Tony George

Chicago Bulls -1.5

A reason the Bulls are favored, and this brings to mind the Cavs and lakers Game from last night everyone is freaking out over, is a basic scenario used by oddsmakers over the years.

I discussed this all last year on my weekely podcasts....Teams on long road swings, tend to fall from grace and get road weary after a long road trips, basically in the last game or two.

The Spurs are 6-2 SU on this road run and this is a VERY TOUGH spot for them. I like to go against teams near the end of a long road run, especially when they are laying points, but none the less Vegas oddsmakers are siding on the Bulls as a fav and so am I. Add in the fact the Bulls have won 8 out 10 SU, and covered 7 of them, and won their last 5 homes in a row, I like them in this spot. The Spurs do NOT need the win here and no doubt are road weary. This is a HUGE Showdown for the Bulls and I honestly feel it means more to them than San Antonio. The line has dropped a half point and may in fact drop more..hold out and see if you can get 1 point on the line. The Spurs off 2 days rest are just 5-6 ATS on the season.