Sam Martin
UCLA at Stanford
Prediction: UCLA
Stanford getting way too much credit from the linesmakers here against a UCLA team that comes in red hot with victories in nine of their last ten games overall. That includes an 11-point win against this Stanford team a few weeks back. And in that game the Bruins held the Cardinal to just 31% shooting from the field. No reason to think Stanford will get better by 14 points here tonight, and we'll take the excellent line value with the road side here.
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY +101 over Detroit
The Bolts opened as the favorite here but the Red Wings have taken a big chunk of the money and now the Bolts are the dog. Wrong. This year’s edition of the Lightning is as dangerous as any team in the league. They have two outstanding lines and two other quality lines too. Guys like Teddy Purcell, Sean Bergenheim, Victor Hedman, Ryan Malone and Simon Gagne are playing in the shadows of Steve Stamkos, Martin St. Louis and Vincent LeCavalier but all those guys are producers and front line NHL talent. Also consider that the Lightning have to be completely amped up to play and beat Steve Yzerman’s former club. Tampa is 19-6-3 at home and while the Red Wings need no introduction and they’re capable of beating anyone anytime, all the value here is on the home side. Play: Tampa Bay +101 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +112 over N.Y. RANGERS
How tough is the West? Well, to put it into perspective, the Kings extended their consecutive point streak to 10 games last night with a win in Columbus. They also own the NHL’s best goals-against average yet they’re sitting in 9th place, out of the playoff picture right now. That’s how tough the West is. Now they’ll play a Rangers squad that has one win over its last seven and one regulation win over its last 10. That lone victory came against the depleted Penguins is a game the Blue Shirts trailed 2-0 in the first six minutes. In addition, the Rangers home record is worse than their away record and in now way should they be trusted laying juice against this superior foe from the West. Play: Los Angeles +112 (Risking 2 units).
TELLY
ONE OF THREE BIG PLAYS TONIGHT
IOWA +8.5
Rob Vinciletti
Middle Tenn St vs. Troy
Play: Middle Tenn St -1.5
The Blue Raiders are 27-7 vs opponents who play mediocre defense and allow 77 or more points per game. In fact they are 7-1 the last 8 times vs these defenseless teams. They have won 8 of 11 vs losing teams and are 6-2 off a win. Troy is a terrible 2-8 vs winning teams and has lost and failed to cover both times with revenge this season. They come in off back to back dog wins here. Look for Middle Tennessee State to take their 6th Straight tonight.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Iowa Hawkeyes +8.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and a loss to Northwestern last month, expect the Hawkeyes to give the Wildcats a run for the money tonight. The Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, the underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. In addition, plays on road underdogs (or pick 'em) that have allowed 65 points or less 4 straight games, that are up against an opponent that scored 50 points or less in its last game, are a tremendous 26-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of 1.8 points. Take Iowa and the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Washington Huskies -8.5
ASU has lost 8 in a row. 1 of those defeats was a 13-point loss to Washington. The Huskies have now won their last 2 against the Sun Devils by an average of 18.0 points. The road team is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Arizona State. The Sun Devils are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Lay the points.
Black Widow
1* on Stanford PK
Home-court advantage is more than enough reason to take Stanford at a pick 'em Thursday as they host the UCLA Bruins. Plus, the Cardinal will be playing with revenge in mind after losing at UCLA 57-68 in their first meeting back on 1/22. They have won three of their last five with their only losses coming against ranked opponents in Washington and Arizona, also sporting a 4-1 ATS mark in their last five contests. Stanford is 10-3 at home this season outscoring opponents by 10.6 points/game, while UCLA is 4-5 on the road losing by 2.0 points/game. The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Bruins are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The home team is 6-1 SU in the last 7 meetings. Take Stanford as a pick 'em.
Larry Ness
DePaul @ Providence
Pick: Providence -11.5
Sometimes I wonder what Oliver Purnell was thinking when he took the job at DePaul. It’s been a long year AGAIN for the Blue Demons, who find themselves 0-12 in Big East play in Purnell’s first season in Chicago but then again, that’s not really anything new. DePaul has lost 47 of its last 48 Big East games since the beginning of the 2008-09 season. One could argue that Providence relies too much on 6-5 senior Brooks (24.2-7.5) but sophomore PG Council (13.4-4.5-6.4) has developed very nicely. The Blue Demons’ two-best players are both freshmen, the 6-8 Melvin (13.9-5.0) and guard Young (12.3-3.7 APG). DePaul neither scores much (67.9 PPG ranks 214th) nor stops anyone on the defensive end, allowing 74.6 PPG (311th) on 49.0 percent shooting (342nd!). Providence has its weaknesses but I’m still laying the points, as the Blue Demons can't match the Friars point-for-point.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO –1½ over San Antonio
Certainly there is no sense of urgency for the Spurs in the final game of a nine-game road trip. Not only does the trip end but the All-Star break begins for them as soon as this one is over and one has to figure that they’re very anxious to head home with a few days off. The trip itself was a huge success, as the Spurs are 6-2 and have won two in a row and six of seven. This team is comfortably in first with an incredible 46-9 record and a huge and comfortable lead for first overall, which they’re a virtual lock to secure down the road. Having said that, four of San Antonio’s last five games have come against Detroit, Toronto, New Jersey and Washington. When you play consecutive games against lousy opposition you get complacent and you also pick up a few bad habits. The Spurs take a huge step up in class against a tough Bulls team that will likely be a lot more jacked up than the visitor. This is not a great shooting Spurs team by any stretch and a close look reveals they scored just 72 against New Orleans and just 71 against the 76ers in recent games. This one could be similar and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit to witness an easy Bulls win going away. Play: Chicago –1½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).