DAVE COKIN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT UTEP
PLAY: UTEP -10.5
It might have taken longer than anticipated, but Tim Floyd’s UTEP Miners are starting to warm up. UTEP figured to suffer some growing pains during the early portion of the campaign, having to replace four starters from last year’s squad. But I never expected the Miners to be stumbling along at 3-6 in CUSA action while winning only half of their 22 games.
Things have changed of late for this team. UTEP heads into tonight’s game having won and covered four straight, and I think they loom as a somewhat under the radar go with team right now.
The offense is suddenly the story for the Miners. Over these last four games, they’re shooting with great accuracy, particularly from beyond the arc. UTEP has canned their threes at just a hair under 50% in the 4-0 run.
Southern Mississippi is going to try and turn this game into a crawl. The game plan for the Golden Eagles is milk the clock, shoot a three and try to stay in the game by lulling the other guys to sleep. That’s really all Doc Sadler can do with this team, as there just isn’t much talent available.
The high point for Southern Miss this season was in late January when they upset this UTEP squad. That was impressive, but it also came against a Miners entry that was scuffling back then. Different story now and I can’t see UTEP taking this game for granted with that revenge factor coming into play.
UTEP is playing at a breakneck pace right now and if Southern Mississippi cannot slow then down, there’s a good chance this gets pretty lopsided. Maybe the Golden Eagles can hang around, but I will bet against that being the case. UTEP minus the points to stay hot for at least one more night.
Rob Vinciletti
SMU vs. Connecticut
Play: SMU +3
SMU is off an impressive win over Gonzaga, while U.Conn held on here vs Tulsa. The Mustangs have controlled the series winning and covering in 4 of the 5 meetings. They are 5-1 as a dog of 4 or less and have won 2 of 3 vs top 50 RPI Scale ranked schools. They are ranked 24th in road defense. The Huskies are ranked 174th in home scoring and just 1-5 to the spread as a favorite of 4 or less.
Marc Lawrence
Southern Miss vs. UTEP
Play: UTEP -10½
Edges - Miners: 6–1-1 ATS home with revenge in this series. Golden Eagles: the visiting team is 4-13-1 ATS in this series. With El Paso 5-0 ATS when seeking revenge this season, we recommend a 1* play on UTEP.
Will Rogers
Chicago vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -11½
The Chicago Bulls are in shambles coming out of the All Star break. They've lost four straight, and six of their last seven, and the injuries are piling up. They won't have leading scorer Jimmy Butler for at least three weeks, and they are rumored to be shopping Pau Gasol. I think they are going to get clobbered in Cleveland.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Home Cookin' - The Cavs own the Eastern Conference's best home record (22-4), and they've scored an average of 114 points in their last six home wins. Kyrie Irving was hot heading into the break, averaging 27 points on 55.8 percent shooting over his last eight games.
2. Coaching Philosophy - The Cavs were one of the slowest teams in the league under David Blatt, but they have been a different team with Tyronn Lue at the helm. They've won eight of 10, going over the total in seven of those games.
3. X-Factor - The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Ari Atari
Capitals vs. Islanders
Play: Capitals -108
The Capitals are the best team in the conference, and probably the entire NHL. The Islanders have been playing great lately but the top to bottom scoring depth coupled with the world class goal tending that Washington brings into this game may just be too much. The Caps also have the best road record in the league, and have won six of seven going into Thursday. On top of that, the Capitals have beaten the Islanders on seven of their last ten, and Alex Ovechkin has something like forty eight points in forty career games against New York. Meanwhile, the guys who get it done for the Isles have had a tough time putting pucks in against Washington, with Tavares pointless in three straight and Brock Nelson with only six in fifteen meetings. The Capitals are a legit cup contender and a big W in Brooklyn only further cements their status as the top dog.
Mike Lundin
Utah vs. Washington
Play: Washington
The Washington Wizards are in for a rough return from the All Star break. They'll be forced to play three games in three nights due to rescheduling of previously postponed games, and I think they'll put a lot of emphasis on this first game back. The Wizards entered the break off a 99-92 loss at Milwaukee last Thursday, but they're 6-2 ATS in their last eight games playing on three or more days rest and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss. The Jazz have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 14 on the road and they're 2-5 ATS as a road underdog of three points or fewer this season. The Wizards have held the Jazz to an average of 86.3 points while taking down the last three in the series, and this looks like a good spot to back the Wizards to book another win as a short favorite.
Jim Feist
California vs. Washington
Play: Over 159½
Cal has plenty of offensive punch, on a 7-2 run over the total. The over is 11-5 in the Golden Bears last 16 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. They head to uptempo Washington, a team that loves to run, scoring 82 and 80 the last two games. Unfortunately they lost both on the road, allowing 90 and 81 points. Wesley Gordon scored a career-high 17 points and grabbed a critical rebound in the final seconds to help Colorado overcome fatigue and a furious Washington rally for an 81-80 win on Saturday. Coming home will help and Washington is on a 15-2 run over the total, including 8-2 over at home. The over is also 20-6 when the Huskies face the Pac-12 and 6-0 over following a straight up loss. And when these teams meet the over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.
Heath Mac
BYU vs. San Diego
Play: BYU -12½
BYU are the far superior team here and play well on the road. We’ve backed BYU several times this season as although their defense isn’t flash (allowing 73.4 ppg, ranked 220th) they tend to beat up on the lesser teams as they put the foot down and simply outscore them.
San Diego has one of the worst offenses in D1 ball, averaging just 60.6 ppg (ranked 346th) so BYU’s allowing defense shouldn’t be an issue here. Meanwhile, BYU’s white hot offense (84.3 ppg, ranked 9th) should be able to put up enough points to cover here.
BYU is coming off blow out wins over Santa Clara (34 points) and San Francisco (25 points). San Diego is coming off back to back losses to San Francisco (17 point loss) and Santa Clara (3 point loss) so the form line here is strong.
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home and 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing BYU.
World Wide Sports
Maryland vs. Minnesota
Play: Maryland -10
Maryland is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games following three or more consecutive home games, 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss, 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up loss and the Terrapins are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. Big Ten. Minnesota is 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games overall, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win and the Golden Gophers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
Big Al
Utah vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
This week, due to a re-scheduling of the Wizards/Pistons game, Washington will play three games in three nights. One may think that such an event is quite rare, but it actually has happened much more often than one would think. Indeed, from the 1960s through the 1980s, it was fairly commonplace. And, then, in the two strike seasons (1999, 2012), it occurred an awful lot. The knee-jerk reaction might be to bet against teams in such a scheduling spot. But they've gone 52-44-1 ATS since 1990 (against teams not playing their third game in three nights), and have done their best work away from home (29-16 ATS). However, I believe the real way to tackle this situation is to play on such teams in the first game of this three-game set. They know that they're embarking on a grueling schedule, and the reaction, it seems, has been to try hard to get the first game. Since 1990, our teams are 62-43-2 ATS in the first game (against opponents not embarking on a similar schedule), including 41-17-1 ATS at home. With these numbers in mind, we'll play on the Wizards in their home game against Utah on Thursday.
Larry Ness
Utah at UCLA
Pick: UCLA
The Pac-12 season consists of 18 games and all teams have completed 12 to 14. Arizona (10-4) leads Oregon (9-4) by a half-game at the top of the race. Utah (19-7) is 8-5 and tied with USC for third in league standings as the Utes travel to Los Angeles this weekend to take on UCLA and USC. The Utes figure to be safe with their at-large status but tonight’s opponent, the UCLA Bruins (14-11/ 5-7), will need to win the Pac 12 tourney to reach the Big Dance. Utah bounced back from a two-game losing streak to sweep visiting Washington and Washington State last weekend on the strength of terrific shooting, as the Utes shot 67.3 percent in Wednesday's win against Washington and 53.2 percent on Sunday against Washington State.
Most feel that Utah lacks the sharp edge that graduated star Delon Wright (14.5-4.9-5.1) provided a year ago but Larry Krystkowiak is on the verge of a THIRD straight 20-win season and a second straight NCAA appearance (reached Sweet 16 last year). The 7-0 Poeltl has dramatically increased his production, averaging 17.8 & 8.8, up from 9.1 & 6.8 as a freshman. The 6-9 Kuzma (11.7-6.0) has developed into a solid frontcourt player, while 6-6 SF Loveridge (11.6-3.8) continues to be a quality player. The starting backcourt is Bonam (9.6-3.2-3.2) and Taylor (9.1-2.4-3.6).
Speaking of starting fives, EACH player in UCLA’s is averaging in double digits. PG Alford (16.4-4.0-5.5) is joined in they backcourt by Hamilton (16.4-4.3-3.3) and Holiday (10.9-3.0-3.1), with the 6-9 Parker (12.9-9.1) and they 6-10 Welsh (11.6-8.4) starting up front. The top two reserves are the 6-10 Bolden (4.7-5.0) and guard Ali (4.5). The Bruins earned a much-needed win Sunday at Arizona State after losing four of their previous five games. Isaac Hamilton has easily been the most consistent player for UCLA this season, reaching double figures in scoring in the last 21 games.
The Bruins upset then-No. 10 Utah in their most recent meeting last season at Pauley Pavilion but have struggled against the better Pac-12 teams this season, posting a 1-6 record against opponents that came into this week with a winning record in conference play. However, I expect that to change here, as while the Utes are averaging a modest 67.4 PPG on the road in lined games this year, while the Bruins are averaging 81.8 PPG in their 13 home games.
Sleepyj
Elon -4
I'll go ahead and back Elon here on the road...Drexel is one of the worst teams in all of CBB right now...Drexel has lost 10 games in a row right now and they only have 3 wins on the entire season..Only one win in conf and it won't get much easier tonight...Elon comes in here losers of three games in row, but Elon has hung tough and played well in those 3 straight losses...Drexel struggles to score as they rank 340th in CBB in PPG...That's pathetic and the way the assist the basketball is just as bad...They rank 290th in assists and 310th in rebounds...In order for Drexel to win or even cover they need to step up on defense and they also need to shoot a decent fg%...That's asking a from this team...Drexel has major issues with fouling the other team and Elon should benefit from the charity stripe tonight...Elon ranks 271st in this area and a few extra shots can help them in this game..Elon is just 67% from the free throw line..Another area i like this Elon team is how they score and move the basketball...Not a bad scoring team at all as they avg about 78ppg..They assist the basketball well and they rebound very well...I see big mismatches with Elon and Drexel in some of the major stat categories...If Elon steps up on the defensive end, I think they cover here..Drexel fails to shoot a decent enough % to even compete with most teams...Key area of concern in this game is the 3pt shooting o Drexel...If the Dragons fall behind it's hard to catch up with a team team that only shoots 31% from 3pt land...Elon on the other hand shoots about 34% and if they are shooting and assisting the ball well, this can be a area they extend the lead...I'll lay the 4 points here and take a shot with a road favorite.
Tony Stoffo
Coll Charleston vs. Delaware
Play: Delaware +5
Charleston is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games, 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 Thursday games, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and the Cougars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Delaware is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home, 18-6-3 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss and the Blue Hens are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games. Head to Head the Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and Delaware is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Power Sports
Santa Clara vs. Loyola Marymount
Pick: Under 140
I'm going to go ahead and say we've reached a "tipping point" of sorts here as not only have the last six meetings between these two WCC rivals all gone Over the total, but so too have the L5 Santa Clara games overall. As a result, we have an inflated total. Take the Under here.
When these teams met last month in Santa Clara, the O/U line was set at 132 points. The final score ended up being 76-66 in LMU's favor as the Lions finished 10 of 24 from three-point range, which is highly irregular for a team that shoots right around 33 percent from behind the arc for the year. Loyola Marymount had gone Over in four straight games themselves prior to Saturday's 68-62 loss at St. Mary's. The poor offensive showing had a lot to do with the fact that they were w/o their leading scorer & rebounder, Adom Jacko, who is listed as being questionable for tonight. Whether or not Jacko returns, I expect the Lions to struggle again here.
Both of these teams desperately need to shape up defensively. Santa Clara is giving up an average of nearly 85 PPG its last five after getting blitzed by BYU, 96-62, its last time out. But for the season, the Broncos are giving up just 73.1 PPG. On offense, they average just 67.4 PPG. Bottom line is that their recent contests have featured a lot more scoring than is per usual, so regression back to the mean should soon set back in. Keep in mind that their last road game, at San Francisco, went into OT and that obviously inflates the scoring. I look for this game to be lower scoring than expected.
SPS Investors
Southern Methodist vs. Connecticut
Pick: Connecticut -2.5
The UConn Huskies are one of the teams that are likely on the bubble when it comes to getting an invite to the Big Dance this season. They have yet to beat a ranked team this season, losing both of their opportunities to Maryland and Gonzaga in non-conference play. This is the Huskies last matchup with a ranked team and ultimately need this win to secure their place in the tournament. A loss tonight could be devastating considering that SMU is ineligible for the postseason and at this point is only playing the role of spoiler for other on the bubble teams.
This is also a big revenge game for Kevin Ollie's team. SMU defeated UConn 62-54 in last year’s AAC Tournament final which ultimately kept the Huskies out of the NCAA Tournament a year after winning it all. The Huskies will wear special blue uniforms for this game which is symbolic of how important they believe this matchup is tonight. UConn is just 1-4 versus the Mustangs since Larry Brown took over the program, the one win however was a victory last season in this venue as the Huskies went on to win by 8 points. The home team is also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
The Huskies have been a team that likes to get off to fast starts and have held commanding, double digit leads in their last two contests. Their struggles however have come in the form of keeping that motivation going for the entire 40 minutes. The Huskies were on their way to beating the conference leading Temple Owls two games again as they held a late 12 point lead late in the contest. Their defense broke down and Temple went on to win that contest 63-58.
In their last contest, the Huskies were up by as many as 20 in the second half in a revenge game against the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes before another major collapse. UConn allowed Tulsa to shoot a blistering 48% in the second half which was the highest percentage they had allowed all season long. The Huskies managed to prevent the comeback and went on to win by a basket. Having nearly blown two leads in back to back games, we expect Kevin Ollie's team to shore things up and be focused on putting in a complete effort for the full 40 minutes tonight. Should they get a lead in this game, we expect that they will do whatever they can to clamp down on the defensive end and preserve it.
This will be a classic matchup of offense vs defense as UConn ranks second nationally in field-goal defense at 37.3 percent while SMU sports the AAC's top scoring offense. Given the importance of this game for the Huskies and the fact that they ultimately need this win much more, we'll look for them to pick up the closely contested win and cover.