Matt Fargo
California vs. Washington
Play: Washington +1
Washington has dropped its last three games but all were competitive against future NCAA Tournament teams. The Huskies were once in first place in the Pac 12 with a 5-1 record but are now 7-6 which is good for just seventh place. The good news is that they are only one game out of third place and with five games left, there is still time to move up. Washington is 10-4 at home with the two conference losses coming by just five points each against Arizona and Utah. California meanwhile is riding a three-game winning streak including a big victory over Oregon but all three of those games were at home and the venue has made all the difference this season for the Golden Bears. The home team is 22-1 in California games this season including a perfect 12-0 in conference games so the fact the Golden Bears come in here as a slight road favorite is a little overaggressive. The Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record while the Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss.
Brad Diamond
Marist vs. Niagara
Play: Marist +4½
Thursday night Marist visits the Purple Eagles in a battle of 5-20 and 6-21 basketball teams. The Red Foxes play with guard Hart still listed as questionable along with his 21.2 points per game. The series last meeting on January 28th, Niagara (+4-½) won SU over Marist 69-66. The last ten in the series have gone 5-5 SU/ATS. The road unit and the underdog are both 4-0 ATS (series). In addition, Niagara is on a perfect 0-5 ATS vs. the MAAC. Each school has taken one game SU inside the recent ten outings overall. The Purple Eagles, though, come with an 0-5 SU/ATS streak since January 30th. They are 4-7 SU @ home, while the Red Foxes bring a 2-10 SU record in road tests. Monday Marist actually led 15-11 Fairfield before losing showing some starch without Hart. With that in mind we’ll take a ticket with the Red Foxes who are 8-2 ATS on the road this season.
Chase Diamond
Spurs vs. Clippers
Play:Clippers +4½
This game features the 45-8 Spurs and the 35-18 Clippers. This game flat out means more to the Clippers then the Spurs. No one is giving the Clippers a chance in this game on their own floor and that will serve as major motivation tonight. 77% of the public are backing the road Spurs here and I think that will lead to a big public slaughter tonight as the Clippers keep it tight to the last buzzer.The Spurs are just 1-5 ATS when playing a team that has a winning percentage above .600. Even without Blake Griffith the Clippers are a quality team and Quality teams at home getting points is something we like to back.
Jimmy Boyd
Clippers +4½
I'll take my chances with Los Angeles as a home dog against the Spurs in the first game back after the All-Star break. The Clippers were responsible for knocking San Antonio out of the playoffs last year and clearly present a difficult matchup for the Spurs. San Antonio did win the first meeting 115-107 at home, but were able to shoot 50% from the field in the defeat.
The Spurs aren't a bad road team by any means, but they are not nearly as dominant on the road as they have been at home. The Clippers on the other hand have gone an impressive 17-8 at home this season and I look for them to come out looking to make a statement in a prime time showdown on TNT.
San Antonio is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 when playing on 3 or more days of rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Clippers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after failing to cover last time out and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record.
Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Clippers. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points are 40-19 (68%) ATS when playing with 3 or more days of rest over the last 5 seasons.
Sam Martin
Chicago vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -12
While we do like the Cavs to avenge their embarrassing 13-point home loss against these Bulls a few weeks back - the first game with Tyrone Lue taking over the head coaching duties for the Cavs - we recommend waiting until the last possible moment before putting this game in. With Thursday being the NBA Trading deadline, and both teams rumored to move some players around, we do NOT want to back a team that will be playing with a short roster. If Kevin Love is traded, or if three or more Cavs players are sent packing, then we do NOT recommend playing this game at all. Obviously, if the Cavs stay pat and the Bulls are the team that are shipping players, then our play still stands. Bulls riding a 1-6 SU and ATS slide in their last seven, and have heard rumors about blowing up their team. If anything, that isn't a vote of confidence for this club and they know they'll be getting the best from the Cavs after the previous matchup. Cavs 22-10 ATS rat home revenging a double--digit loss and they add to that mark with a blowout winner tonight - as long as they have enough active players!
Brandon Lee
Minnesota +10.5
Maryland comes into this game off an ugly 57-70 home loss to Wisconsin and the perception here is that the Terrapins are going to bounce back with an easy win over Minnesota, who has yet to win a conference game at 0-13. I believe that perception has created value on the Golden Gophers, who have quietly been playing better of late. Minnesota only lost 71-75 at Iowa last time out and have now lost 7 of their last 8 games by 8 points or less. This is the biggest game left on the schedule for the Golden Gophers, so we can expect a max effort here and they catch a break by avoiding Maryland's Diamond Stone, who is suspended for this contest. The Terrapins have been a great team to fade against bad teams, as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against at team that's won fewer than 40% of their games.
John Fisher
Wisconsin at Michigan St.
Play: Michigan St. -9.5
I said to myself of this line is below 10,I'm going to back the Spartans here. Spartans can shoot the three ball better then anyone. This will be Wisconsin's demise here as the Badgers style has been winning games more then talent. Often after a team gets summoned as the new team to watch after winning a big game versus a top 5 opponent they crash and burn after reading their headline clippings. Just too much Spartans here for this to be a game. After 10 minute mark in first half look for Valentine and Forbes to hit 4 consecutive threes to make Wisconsin panic and lose the pace and style that got them this far during their 7 game win streak. Wisconsin will finish 19-12 after losing three roads games where they won't have a chance...bubble all the way and this game no chance.
Wunderdog
Boston vs. Nashville
Pick: Nashville -127
Boston's defensive shortcomings continue, allowing 20 goals the last five contests. They come off a 2-1 win at Columbus, but don't be fooled: they had a 6-5 loss at Detroit and suffered a 9-2 home loss to the Kings. This is their fifth straight road game of a season long six-game trip. They head to a Nashville team that has good balance across the board at #16 in goals scored and allowed, plus #10 on the power play. Nashville goaltender Pekka Rinne is 3-0-1 with a 2.32 GAA lifetime against Boston. This is the middle of a three-game homestand for the Predators and the home team is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
Jack Jones
Portland +9.5
The St. Mary's Gaels have been overvalued for quite some time now. They have gone just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall after a blistering start to the season against the spread. They are once again overvalued tonight as oddsmakers are asking them to go on the road and win by double-digits to cover this 9.5-point spread.
But the biggest reason to fade the Gaels tonight is that this is a massive lookahead spot for them. They have a road game against Gonzaga coming up on Saturday that is much more important than this contest against Portland. The winner of that game will likely win the West Coast Conference.
Portland comes in playing well having won two of its last three games. It won 73-70 as 10-point road dogs at Pepperdine and 92-78 as 2.5-point road dogs at Loyola-Marymount. It has had a full week off since a home loss to Gonzaga last time out, which will have it well-rested and ready to go tonight against St. Mary's.
Portland is 11-3 ATS versus good defensive teams who allow 42% or less shooting over the last two seasons. The Gaels are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win. The Pilots are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Ian Cameron
Minnesota at Edmonton
Play: Minnesota
My clients and I cashed a pair of tickets with Minnesota and the over last night in its 5-3 win over Calgary and that is the same route I will take tonight as the Wild look to make it three straight wins since their coaching change. Minnesota has responded in a big way in its first two games under interim head coach John Torchetti having notched back-to-back wins over Vancouver and Calgary following a brutal 1-13 slide. They have played with a lot more energy and have been employing a more aggressive, attack minded style of hockey as they have burst out for 10 goals in their last two games. That is trouble for an Edmonton team that has struggled defensively most of the season especially of late as the Oilers have yielded 24 goals during their current 1-5 skid. It also doesn’t help that they’ve seen another defenseman go down with an injury as Eric Gryba suffered a knee injury in Edmonton’s last game against Anaheim and will be out for at least a month. That's not good for an Oilers team lacking quality depth on the blue line. This is not an optimal spot for Minnesota playing the second night of back-to-back games on the road but the travel from Calgary to Edmonton is not arduous and the situation has already been factored into this line with Minnesota basically at a pick 'em despite being the better team. I believe the boost of energy and confidence the Wild have found since the coaching change can certainly carry over to tonight’s game especially facing a bottom-tier team such as the Edmonton Oilers. It’s also worth noting Minnesota is on a 7-0-1 O/U run. I’ll recommend a half unit each on Minnesota at -110 and also the over at a solid +115 price.
Harry Bondi
CLEVELAND (-11) over Chicago
We have said many times over the years that LeBron James' teams are always worth a play in the regular season when he has reason to focus. In fact, King James is 18-2 SU and 16-4 ATS when facing a team that beat him earlier in the season by double digits. That sets us up for a play on the Cavs tonight, since back in January the Bulls upset Cleveland, 96-83, as a 10-point dog. That was Cleveland's first game with Tyronn Lue as head coach and they were admittedly not ready for prime time. Since then, the team has gelled a bit under their new head coach, going 8-2 SU before the All-Star break. The Bulls are just 8-14 ATS as an underdog and come into this game on a 1-5 ATS skid. Lay the lumber.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 16-7 runwith complimentary plays: Missouri State at WICHITA STATE (-22)
The STORYLINE in this game today - Missouri State is in store for a long night in Wichita, as the Wichita State Shockers are no longer in the Top 25, but certainly play like a ranked team. The Shockers are looking to reach 20-wins for the seventh-consecutive year, which would make for the second-longest streak in MVC history.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is motivation. The Shockers can do a lot for themselves with a win tonight, including hit 20 wins for the 10th time in the last 13 seasons and the 18th time in school history. Look for an aggressive approach, as Wichita State ranks second nationally in turnover margin (+5.7).
BOTTOM LINE is - Wichita State has owned this series, and since this is at home, it's going to continue to dominate. The Shockers have outrebounded Missouri State in all 11 games of their current winning streak against the Bears, with six of those coming by 15-or-more. And while the average margin during that run is 13.2, tonight will be much more severe.
2* WICHITA STATE
Scott Delaney
Give me the home underdog in this Sun Belt showdown, as there is no reason to think Arkansas State can go in and knock off Georgia Southern.
I'll be real honest here, I looked at one thing and one thing only, and it's the main reason I am giving Georgia Southern out as my complimentary winner.
Both have 11 wins. Arkansas State has 14 losses, while Georgia Southern has 13. But take a look at the home and away marks.
While Georgia Southern comes in with a 7-3 mark at home, Arkansas State is just 2-10 on the road.
That's good enough for me to simply pick the winner in this game. Take the home pup.
2* GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Chris Jordan
Time for revenge, and that's why my free play is on the Kentucky Wildcats, who suffered a tough-luck loss at Tennessee earlier this month. The young Wildcats have grown since then, and tonight they're going to deal the Volunteers a severe beatdown in revenge.
The 14th-ranked Wildcats are playing their best basketball of the season right now, so it's easy to see how they'll avenge their stinging Feb. 2 defeat when the Volunteers are in town tonight.
Since squandering a 21-point first-half lead in their 84-77 loss to Tennessee, the Wildcats have routed Florida, Georgia and South Carolina by an average of 26.7 points. And make note, Kentucky is playing without Alex Poythress, the team's leading rebounder and lone senior.
And in their last game, the Wildcats lost coach John Calipari, who was ejected less than three minutes into the game. But the surging Wildcats still dealt South Carolina its first home loss in Saturday's 89-62 rout.
Look for the motivation to carry over to this game, as the Wildcats will roll to the easy win and cover.
1* KENTUCKY
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is Kentucky as the home favorite over Tennessee.
The Wildcats last loss?
Blowing a 21-point lead in Knoxville back on February 2nd, as the Vols stunned the 'Cats 84-77 as the +7 point underdog.
Since then, the Wildcats have won covered 3 straight, including a big time rout of South Carolina in Columbia this past Saturday.
Look for a payback rout tonight against a Tennessee team that has lost 4 in a row on the SEC road both straight up and against the spread.
Even with the loss to UT on the 2nd, the Wildcats are 8-2 straight up the past 10 series meetings, and they should be in a pretty nasty mood after blowing that game in Knoxville earlier this month.
No mercy, Kentucky sweeps the leg!
Wildcats big.
4* KENTUCKY