Brad Wilton
Comp play winner for Thursday is the Cavaliers to name it against the injury-depleted Chicago Bulls who are down their leading scorer in Jimmy Butler, and are also sans Nikola Mirotic.
True, Chicago has covered 7 of the last 10 in this series, and they have won outright in the first two meetings against Cleveland this season, but those numbers are about to take a hit here on Thursday at the Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland went to the All-Star break with wins in each of their last 3, and 8 of their last 10 overall. The Cavs are also 5-3-1 against the spread over their last 9 games.
Compare that to Chicago, and their 5-13 straight up mark their last 18, and their 4-14 against the spread mark in those 18 games, and there isn't very much to think about at all.
Lay it with the Cavs!
3* CLEVELAND
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY -½ +110 over Winnipeg
Regulation only. How do you measure the heart of a team? Well, let’s just stick to facts. Winnipeg is the only team in the NHL that doesn’t have a three-game winning streak or more this season. That’s right, 56 games in and Winnipeg’s longest winning streak is two games. The Jets also lead the league in most penalties taken so not only are the Jets losing frequently, they’re an undisciplined bunch that can’t stay out of the box. After losing in Carolina on Tuesday and looking like they would have preferred to be anywhere else, Jets Coach Paul Maurice put his team through a rigorous practice yesterday. That’s not going to work either. The Jets have scored one goal in regulation in three of their last four games and the other game they scored two in a 6-2 loss to Boston. The individual and collective breakdowns have created a noxious mixture of doubt and passivity on the ice. The shared chip on their shoulder that the Jets possessed last season along with the swagger is history. There are repeated fundamental breakdowns in discipline, defensive-zone coverage in general and defending the front of the net. They don’t look like a well-coached team either and they’re about to walk into the den of a hungry lion. For Winnipeg, this one isn’t likely to turn out well and now the trade rumors are swirling too regarding Andrew Ladd and others.
The Lightning are coming off games against Nashville, St. Louis and San Jose and take a huge step down in class here. They lost to the Blue Notes 2-1 but credit Brian Elliott for that win, as Tampa outshot the Blues 38-21. Against San Jose, they also lost with the shots on net being even at 31-30 so it was Martin Jones that played better than Ben Bishop. Coming off consecutive home losses, the Bolts will leave nothing on the table here. Lightning Coach Jon Cooper reunited the triplet’s line last game and they were buzzing. Why he ever broke them up is a mystery but they’re back together and that can only be positive. The Bolts are healthy and have no excuses here. Ben Bishop, a goaltender on our fade radar, will sit this one out in favor of Andrei Vasilevskiy, which is just another positive nugget on this attack versus the Jets.
Carolina +105 over OTTAWA
OT included. The Senators are coming off a 2-1 shootout win over the Sabres in a game they were outshot in 39-26. They had no business winning that one but Craig Anderson came up big. The game before that, the Sens allowed the Jackets 40 shots on net in a 4-2 defeat. What we have here is an analytics mismatch in the Hurricanes favor, as Ottawa ranks dead last in shots allowed per game while Carolina ranks second in the league in shots allowed per game. It goes deeper than that too. Carolina leads the league in face-offs won and they lead the league in fewest minor penalties taken. Frankly, this is a terrible matchup for Ottawa because they are likely to get dominated in puck possession and in shots on net. Carolina is hungrier too.
Carolina is coming off back-to-back wins over the Islanders (6-3) and Jets. Its 2-1 victory over Winnipeg is an extremely flattering score to the Jets, as Carolina allowed just 21 shots on net and many of those shots were of the weak variety. The ‘Canes have allowed 26 shots on net or fewer in five of their past seven games. They have taken two minors or fewer in four of their past five games. The Hurricanes are relentless in their pursuit of the puck and you will not find a team as positionally sound as they are. The last time these two played, Carolina won in OT, 3-2. That was one of the most misleading scores of the season, as the Hurricanes dominated throughout, outshot Ottawa, 46-21 and probably should have won by five goals. Since that game back in November, Carolina has learned how to win and we doubt there dominance from that game will be any different this time around.
Detroit +111 over PITTSBURGH
OT included. The Red Wings are coming off a 4-1 loss in Brooklyn to the Islanders. We can forgive Detroit's effort against the Isles, as they were coming off a crazy 6-5 win over the Bruins the day before in a game where Mrazek was fighting the puck all afternoon. Detroit’s lead never felt safe. The Red Wings actually outshot the Bruins 35-22 in that one. Prior to that, the Wings lost a 2-1 shootout to Colorado in a game Detroit outshot the Avs 45-21. Detroit has outshot its last two opponents 80-43. The Red Wings are a nightmare to defend against and here’s why: Coach Dan Blashill has perhaps the three fastest players in the league in Darren Helm, Dylan Larkin and recent call-up Andreas Athanasiou. All three are on separate lines with the other line consisting of Zetterberg/Datsyuk and Abdelkader. There are no breaks whatsoever for the opposition to defend. Speed kills and the Red Wings have it in spades. The likely return of Nicklas Kronwall doesn’t hurt either and one can absolutely expect a bounce-back game from the solid Petr Mrazek. Detroit is 14-9-3 away from the Joe and they’re just starting to peak now.
The Penguins are still without Evgeni Malkin and they've struggled to find the back of the net recently. Last time out, the Pens lost to Florida (2-1) in a shootout as road chalk. Before that, they only were able to muster one tally in a 2-1 SO win over Carolina and they were also shut out 3-0 at home against the Rangers the game prior to that. That’s three goals for the Pens over their last three games. What really sticks out however is that Pittsburgh beats up on weak teams and they usually lose to stronger ones. Pittsburgh has just six wins in 19 games versus top-10 competition and just 11 wins in 27 games against top-16 competition. Marc Andre Fleury has been shaky too lately with save percentages of .714, .783 and .875 in a recent string of three out of four games. At the end of the day, we don’t see where the Penguins have an edge and will therefore give Detroit at least a 50% chance or better of winning. Pittsburgh's record against the elite confirms that.
EDMONTON +100 over Minnesota
OT included. The Wild built a 3-0 first period lead last night and nearly blew it, not once but twice. They won last night because they were able to score four goals on 24 shots on net against a weak Calgary defense and a weaker goaltender. They also scored on a 5-on-3 power-play. Frankly, the Wild were not that impressive and now they’ll play the final game of the dreaded three-game trip through Western Canada. With two victories in a row since hiring a new coach, Minnesota’s stock is creeping back up and that makes us sellers. Despite the win last night, we saw the same old things with the Wild, that being a fragile team that lacks confidence. Since January 1, Minnesota has fewer victories than any team in the league and wins over Vancouver and Calgary does not suddenly make them a threat. Simply put, Cliff Fletcher built a team that hit its peak with consecutive Western Conference semifinal appearances and they are incapable of anything more. We see a bunch of worn out and tired vets too. Lastly, the Wild return home after this one to face the Blackhawks and we’re pretty sure that’s the game they’ll be saving their energy for.
Edmonton’s stock is low after losing five of its last six and that makes us buyers. Edmonton attracted a lot of hype once Connor McDavid returned and they instantly won back-to-back games by scores of 5-1 and 7-2 in McDavid’s first two games back. Since then, however, Edmonton has fallen off the radar with those aforementioned five losses in six games. The hype is gone and that has us very interested. Edmonton is coming off a “good” loss to the red-hot Ducks. After being silent for several games, the Hall/Draisaitl/Purcell line woke up against Anaheim to take a weight off its shoulders. The Oilers have two dynamic lines and two decent ones backing it up. Hall’s line has been outstanding all year so a minor funk means little, especially when that funk has been snapped. Edmonton has still scored nine times over their past three games. Its defense leaves much to be desired but that’s not going to prevent us from playing them at home here. Had this game be played one week ago, this line would be nowhere near where it is at today but what we have here is an overreaction to both Minnesota’s two-game winning streak and Edmonton’s funk. The Oilers are a much bigger threat to score than the Wild and they are also much better than their recent results. Expect a big effort from the host.
Scott Rickenbach
Anaheim Ducks -130
The Ducks simply have too much for the floundering Canucks right now. Vancouver is struggling to find the back of the net and has been held to 2 goals or less in 6 of past 7 games. The Canucks have lost five straight home games and the last three defeats have all come by a margin of 3 goals! In other words, Vancouver has been getting blown out. Now the Canucks, struggling to score goals, face a red hot Anaheim team that has won 17 of its past 23 games. The Ducks have scored 2 goals or less just twice in their past 15 games! As you can see, Anaheim’s offense has been much more efficient than the Canucks. Vancouver has taken 3 of the last 4 meetings between these clubs including 2 of 3 this season so there is no way the Ducks will overlook them. That is bad news for a Vancouver team that has won just 32% of its games against teams with a winning record this season. As for Anaheim, the Ducks have won an incredible 60 of their last 87 games when off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more. Firing on all cylinders right now, the Ducks will prove to be too much for the Canucks tonight.
DAVE PRICE
Minnesota +9.5
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are still in search of their 1st Big Ten win and would love for it to come against a team the caliber of Maryland. With the way the Gophers have been playing of late, they should have a chance to pull off the upset while easily staying within this 9.5-point spread. Seven of Minnesota's last eight games have been decided by 8 points or less, including a 5-point loss at Michigan, a 6-point loss at Indiana, a 4-point loss at Iowa, and a 4-point home loss to Purdue. The Gophers are clearly capable of playing with Maryland with the way they are battling right now. The Terrapins haven't won any of their last five road games by more than 5 points.
ROSS KING
San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +4.5
This game features the 45-8 Spurs and the 35-18 Clippers. This game flat out means more to the Clippers then the Spurs. No one is giving the Clippers a chance in this game on their own floor and that will serve as major motivation tonight. 77% of the public are backing the road Spurs here and I think that will lead to a big public slaughter tonight as the Clippers keep it tight to the last buzzer.The Spurs are just 1-5 ATS when playing a team that has a winning percentage above .600. Even without Blake Griffith the Clippers are a quality team and Quality teams at home getting points is something we like to back.
CAJUN SPORTS
Missouri State vs. Wichita State
Play: Wichita State -22
The Wichita State Shockers play host to the Missouri State Bears on Thursday night. The Shockers are hoping to hang on to their lead in the MVC with a win tonight. They enter off a blowout victory on Monday over New Mexico State 71 to 41 as 16.5-point home favorites. That win on the heels of an upset loss on Saturday to Northern Iowa losing 53 to 50 snapping the Shockers 43-game home winning streak. The good teams always respond to a major loss and the Shockers certainly did that by destroying New Mexico State. These two clubs met in mid-January in Missouri with the Shockers getting off to a slow start but coming on strong winning 78 to 62. In that game they held the Bears to 32.6 percent shooting from the field and out-rebounded them 42 to 24. Wichita State is 98-56-4 ATS coming off a SU win in their last game. If they are installed as a favorite coming off a SU win they are 86-51-4 ATS. Wichita State has been solid when facing conference opponents posting a record of 71-39-3 ATS if they are installed as a conference favorite they are 69-36-3 ATS. Finally we have a pair of power systems from our database that also support the Shockers tonight. They tell us to Play ON conference home favorites who have committed less than twenty-three turnovers in their last three games with a winning percentage of sixty-four percent or better. The home favorites are 108-66-6 ATS for 62.1 percent winners. The second system tells us to Play ON conference home favorites who have committed less than twenty-three turnovers in their last three games with a winning percentage of sixty-four percent or better facing an opponent with a win percentage of fifty percent or less on the season. These home favorites are 38-14-4 ATS for 73.1 percent winners. With solid support across the board we will lay the double-digits with the Shockers on Thursday night.
Bruce Marshall
Eastern Washington -3
We'll take our chances with EWU, which on its best nights has been the most electric team in the Big Sky this season. That label would not apply to host Sac State, which has lost 3 straight and 9 of 12 in league play. Meanwhile, the screaming Eagles have won 6 straight and are 8-2-1 vs. the line their last 11, though one of those spread Ls did come at home vs. the Hronets, who squeezed inside of an 8-point line in a 74-67 loss at Cheney on Jan. 30. Plenty of firepower for EWU to extend the margin, as Eagles score 83 ppg, hit 50% from floor and 40% beyond arc, while much-traveled transfer G Austin McBroom (CMU & Saint Louis) has scored a staggering 72 points over his last two outings!
Anthony Michael
San Antonio Spurs -4.5
Have to love the Spurs here on full rest coming out of the All-Star break. The Spurs are 15-10 ATS on the road and the Clippers are only 4-9 ATS against Southwest Division teams. Statistically speaking these teams are reasonably equal but the Spurs have a huge edge on defense. The Spurs have covered 5 of the last 7 against the Clippers and with full rest they should be good to go in this one.
Dr. Bob
College Basketball Totals Opinions
OVER (134) – Northeastern at James Madison Over 136 or less.
OVER (132.5) – UC Davis at Cal Poly Over 133 or less
OVER (123) – St. Peter’s at Quinnipiac Over 124 or less.