SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(5) Syracuse (24-2, 15-7 ATS) at (10) Georgetown (18-6, 11-9 ATS)
A pair of Big East heavyweights collide when the Orange travel to the D.C. area to face Georgetown at the Verizon Center.
Syracuse opened the season with 13 consecutive wins, fell as a heavy home chalk against Pittsburgh, then reeled off 11 more wins (8-3 ATS) before getting upset by Louisville 66-60 as a 7½-point home favorite Sunday. The Orange are averaging 80.8 ppg on a nation-leading 52.2 percent shooting this season, while allowing 64.3 ppg on 38.5 percent shooting. However, over its last five games, the ‘Cuse is down to 69.4 ppg and 46.9 percent shooting.
The Hoyas were on a 5-2 SU and ATS surge before being dealt a shocking 71-68 loss Sunday at Rutgers as a 10½-point road chalk, a team they had pounded 88-63 as a 19½-point home favorite three weeks ago. Like Syracuse, Georgetown also shoots the rock well, making 50.6 percent of its field goals (third), and the Hoyas are outscoring visitors by about a dozen points per game (77.6-65.5), hitting 52.6 percent from the floor at the Verizon Center. And in the last five games overall, Georgetown is shooting a hefty 55.2 percent.
Syracuse has cashed in six of the last seven in this rivalry (5-2 SU), winning and covering at home in the last two contests. That includes a 73-56 rout as a 5 ½-point favorite back on Jan. 25, as the Orange fell behind 14-0 to start the game and then rolled from there. Last year at home, Georgetown prevailed 88-74 as a 6½-points favorite, as the home team has cashed in the last four meetings. Also, the SU winner is on a 7-1 ATS run when these rivals hook up.
The Orange are on several positive pointspread streaks, including 24-9 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss, 6-1 after a non-cover, 7-1 on the road, 20-8 against winning teams and 15-6 in the Big East. The Hoyas are on ATS upticks of 4-0 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 at home, but they’ve also gone just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 Big East starts.
The over for Georgetown is on rolls of 5-1 at home, 6-0 after a SU loss, 5-0 after an ATS defeat and 5-2 on Thursday, but the total has stayed low in four of the Hoyas’ last five conference starts. In addition, Syracuse sports “under” streaks of 6-0 overall (all in the Big East), 6-0 as a visitor, 6-0 after a non-cover and 5-1 coming off a SU loss, though the over has hit in its last five Thursday games. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings at Georgetown, and last month’s clash at Syracuse also fell short of the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(17) Vanderbilt (19-5, 12-10 ATS) at Ole Miss (17-7, 12-7-1 ATS)
Vanderbilt, winners of three of its last four games, heads south to Oxford’s Tad Smith Coliseum for an SEC contest with the Rebels, who have dropped three of their last four.
Following a 72-58 blowout loss as a four-point favorite at Georgia, Vandy whipped then-No. 12 Tennessee 90-71 as a three-point home favorite on Feb. 9 and topped LSU 77-69 on Saturday, though it failed to cash as a 15½-point chalk in that contest. The Commodores average 78.9 ppg on 48.7 percent shooting, while allowing 69.6 ppg on 41.7 percent shooting. On the road, though, their scoring dips to 72.7 ppg, and they give up 75.0 ppg. Vandy went 3-0 SU and ATS in its first three SEC roadies but has since dropped two in a row SU and ATS, losing at Georgia and Kentucky (85-72).
Mississippi has followed a 3-0 SU and ATS surge with its current 1-3 SU skid (1-2-1 ATS), including last Thursday’s 71-63 loss at Mississippi State as a four-point underdog. The Rebels have outscored foes by about 10 ppg on average (79.6-69.9), but on the home court – where they’re 10-2 this season – they put up 82.4 ppg and allow 66.7.
Vanderbilt is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes in this rivalry, including a 71-61 home win last season giving 7½ points. The SU winner is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and the favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine.
The Commodores are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against winning teams, but they’re also on pointspread skids of 1-4 overall (all in the SEC), 1-6 on Thursday, 1-4 after a SU win and 2-5 after a non-cover. The Rebels are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 Thursday outings, but the ATS streaks trend upward from there, including 5-2-1 overall (all in the SEC), 12-4 after a non-cover, 10-4-1 after a SU loss and 39-19 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
High-scoring Vandy is on a bundle of “over” tears, including 7-1 overall (all in conference play), 4-0 on Thursday, 7-1 after an ATS setback, 5-1 following a SU win and 8-2 on the highway. The over is also 3-1-1 with Ole Miss coming off a SU loss, but the Rebels are otherwise on “under” surges of 5-2-1 overall and 3-1-1 at home. The under is also 4-2 in the last six meetings in this rivalry, with the last two contests in a row staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI
(19) Pittsburgh (19-6, 12-8-2 ATS) at Marquette (16-8, 12-6 ATS)
Surging Marquette aims to firm up its NCAA Tournament credentials when it plays host to the Panthers in a Big East clash at the Bradley Center.
Pitt has followed a 1-4 SU slide (2-3 ATS) by winning its last three (2-0 ATS), squeaking past then-No. 5 West Virginia 98-95 in overtime last Friday as a 2½-point home favorite. That final tally was way beyond the Panthers’ season averages of 69.0 ppg scored and 61.6 ppg allowed, and on the road this year, Pitt is getting outscored by just over a point per game on average (67.3-66.0).
The Eagles lost five of seven games to open Big East play this year (5-2 ATS), with four of the five losses coming by two points or less. Since then, though, they’ve won five in a row, including a 63-52 victory over improving South Florida on Saturday, barely cashing as a nine-point home chalk. Marquette is second nationally in 3-point shooting (42.3 percent), and during the current run, it has hit 40.2 percent from long distance while holding opponents to just 26.5 percent from beyond the arc.
Pittsburgh is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in this rivalry, after a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS run by Marquette. In last year’s lone meeting, the Panthers won 90-75 as a 9½-point home chalk, meaning the SU winner is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven series clashes. The home team and the favorite are on identical 4-1 ATS runs in the last five meetings.
The Golden Eagles carry positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 overall (all within the conference), 5-0 on Thursday, 7-0 against winning teams, 4-1 at home and 5-2 after either a SU or an ATS victory. Likewise, the Panthers are on ATS rolls of 10-3-1 overall, 11-3-2 against winning teams, 6-2-1 after a SU win and 8-3-1 in the Big East.
Marquette is on “over” stretches of 5-1 overall (all in the Big East), 4-1 on Thursday, 7-2 against winning teams and 5-2 after a pointspread win, and Pitt carries “over” trends of 4-0 following a SU win and 7-2 when facing a winning team. Additionally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in seven of the last nine meetings, with last year’s shootout halting a 2-0 “under” uptick.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARQUETTE and OVER
NBA
Denver (35-18, 24-26-3 ATS) at Cleveland (43-11, 28-25-1 ATS)
The Nuggets open the second half of the season with a stop at Quicken Loans Arena, where they’ll try to put a stop to the Cavaliers’ 13-game winning streak.
Denver has been idle since losing 111-92 at home to the Spurs a week ago tonight, falling as a 5½-point favorite. The Nuggets have alternated wins and losses over the last six games (2-3-1 ATS), but have won three of five on the road (3-1-1 ATS). They are 3-0-1 ATS this season after getting three or more days off, but they are just 12-13 (10-13-2 ATS) on the highway.
Cleveland wraps up a six-game homestand tonight with some familiar faces gone from the lineup and some new ones in. The Cavaliers last night acquired Antawn Jamison of the Wizards and Sebastian Telfair from the Clippers in a six-player, three-team deal that sent longtime Cavs center Zydrunas Ilgauskas to the Wizards.
Cleveland won 13 straight (8-5 ATS) going into the All-Star break, including a 115-106 win over the Magic as a six-point home favorite a week ago tonight. The Cavs are 24-3 at home (but just 12-15 ATS) and they’re 3-1 ATS after three or more days off this season.
Denver has won six of the last eight meetings in this series (SU and ATS) dating back to 2006. That includes a 99-97 home win back on Jan. 8, cashing as a four-point pup in game Denver played without All-Star Carmelo Anthony. However, the Cavaliers won last year’s meeting in Cleveland 110-99, covering the seven-point spread.
The Nuggets are just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 against Central Division teams, but they are riding positive ATS streaks of 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 7-3 on Thursday, 4-1-2 as a road ‘dog and 6-1 after a non-cover. The Cavs are on several ATS streaks as well, including 7-2 overall, 13-6-1 against Northwest Division teams, 4-0-1 on Thursday, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against Western Conference foes.
Denver is on “under” streaks of 35-16 as an underdog, 10-4 as a road ‘dog, 5-1 on Thursday and 6-2 on the road against teams with winning home records. Meanwhile, Cleveland is on a plethora of “over” runs, including 3-0-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home against teams with losing road records, 7-3-1 on Thursday, 5-2-1 against Northwest Division teams and 6-2-1 as a favorite of five to 10½-points.
Finally, in this series, the under has been the play in two straight and six of the last nine.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Boston (33-18, 19-3-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (42-13, 25-28-2 ATS)
The Lakers opened the second half of the season Tuesday with their fourth straight win – all without injured superstar Kobe Bryant – and hope to continue their winning ways when they host the rival Celtics inside the Staples Center.
Boston was also in action on Tuesday, grabbing a 95-92 win in Sacramento but falling short as a 5½-point favorite. While the Celtics have won four of their last six, they have failed to cover in any of the last five contests and are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14. Doc Rivers’ squad is 18-9 (13-14 ATS) on the road this season, and the offense has stalled a bit lately, managing just 94.4 points per game over the last five overall.
Bryant is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest with his injured ankle. On Tuesday, his teammates scored their fourth straight victory with a 104-94 triumph over the Warriors, but came up short as a 13-point home favorite. All five starters managed scored in double figures, with backup guard Shannon Brown (Bryant’s replacement) leading the way with 27 points and 10 rebounds.
Los Angeles has won the last three in this rivalry (2-0-1 ATS), including a thrilling 90-89 victory in Boston back on Jan. 31, pushing as a one-point road chalk. The Lakers have won all three meetings since losing in the 2008 NBA Finals to the Celtics in six games. Boston, which cashed in all six NBA Finals games, is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in Hollywood. Also, the ‘dog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight.
Currently, the Celtics are on nothing but negative ATS slides, including 1-10-1 against Pacific Division teams, 3-12-1 overall, 0-5-1 after a day off, 0-4-1 after a non-cover and 1-7 after a straight-up win. Los Angeles is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at Staples, but otherwise is on pointspread surges of 4-1 on Thursday, 4-1-1 against Atlantic Division teams and 5-2 after a non-cover.
It’s been all “unders” for Boston lately, including 4-0 overall, 5-0 after a non-cover, 6-1 against Pacific Division teams, 19-8 on Thursday and 28-12 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600. The Lakers have topped the total in five of seven against the Eastern Conference, but they are on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 6-1 after a straight-up win, 20-7 on Thursday and 8-3 at home against teams with winning road records.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOS ANGELES and UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
Denver at Cleveland
The Nuggets look to bounce back from a 111-92 loss to San Antonio and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Denver is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Cavaliers favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Denver (+6)
Game 501-502: Denver at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 123.825; Cleveland 127.873
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 4; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 6; 206
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+6); Over
Game 503-504: Boston at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.170; LA Lakers 123.070
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5; 192
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAAB
Syracuse at Georgetown
The Hoyas look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as a home favorite between 1 and 6 1/2 points. Georgetown is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoyas favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-2)
Game 505-506: Syracuse at Georgetown
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 71.584; Georgetown 76.810
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 5
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-2)
Game 507-508: LaSalle at Dayton
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 55.605; Dayton 67.403
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 12
Vegas Line: Dayton by 15
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (+15)
Game 509-510: Auburn at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 62.495; Florida 68.028
Dunkel Line: Florida by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+9 1/2)
Game 511-512: Vanderbilt at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 69.740; Mississippi 67.924
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 2
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 4
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+4)
Game 513-514: Middle Tennessee State at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 53.871; Troy 58.075
Dunkel Line: Troy by 4
Vegas Line: Troy by 3
Dunkel Pick: Troy (-3)
Game 515-516: Arkansas State at UL-Lafayette
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 50.533; UL-Lafayette 58.711
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 8
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-6 1/2)
Game 517-518: Portland at Pepperdine
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 65.351; Pepperdine 47.852
Dunkel Line: Portland by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Portland by 10
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-10)
Game 519-520: New Orleans at UL-Monroe
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 38.962; LA-Monroe 50.735
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 12
Vegas Line: UL-Monroe by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (-10 1/2)
Game 521-522: South Alabama at Western Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 47.549; Western Kentucky 58.604
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 11
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (+12 1/2)
Game 523-524: Florida Atlantic at Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 55.645; Florida International 48.439
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 7
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 3
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (-3)
Game 525-526: UCLA at Washington State
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 61.155; Washington State 62.908
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington State by 5
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+5)
Game 527-528: Cleveland State at WI-Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 57.502; WI-Milwaukee 56.178
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: WI-Milwaukee by 3
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (+3)
Game 529-530: AR-Little Rock at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: AR-Little Rock 42.605; Denver 56.487
Dunkel Line: Denver by 14
Vegas Line: Denver by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-11 1/2)
Game 531-532: Wisconsin at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 75.451; Minnesota 68.286
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 7
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+1 1/2)
Game 533-534: Pittsburgh at Marquette
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 65.693; Marquette 73.622
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 8
Vegas Line: Marquette by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (-5 1/2)
Game 535-536: Gonzaga at Loyola-Marymount
Dunkel Ratings: Gonzaga 67.338; Loyola-Marymount 57.515
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 10
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 12
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Marymount (+12)
Game 537-538: Stanford at Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 59.857; Oregon 59.156
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 1
Vegas Line: Oregon by 4
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+4)
Game 539-540: California at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: California 66.685; Oregon State 66.078
Dunkel Line: California by 1
Vegas Line: California by 6
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+6)
Game 541-542: USC at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: USC 64.159; Washington 69.169
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5
Vegas Line: Washington by 8
Dunkel Pick: USC (+8)
Game 543-544: St. Mary's (CA) at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 66.656; San Diego 53.970
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (CA) (-7)
Game 545-546: Western Carolina at The Citadel
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 50.229; The Citadel 49.051
Dunkel Line: Western Carolina by 1
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina
Game 547-548: Portland State at Northern Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 51.603; Northern Arizona 52.272
Dunkel Line: Northern Arizona by 1
Vegas Line: Northern Arizona by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (+3 1/2)
Game 549-550: Eastern Washington at Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 42.485; Northern Colorado 59.055
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 14
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (-14)
Game 551-552: Sacramento State at Montana State
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento State 40.686; Montana State 56.856
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 16
Vegas Line: Montana State by 12
Dunkel Pick: Montana State (-12)
Game 553-554: North Dakota State at IPFW
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 47.503; IPFW 56.393
Dunkel Line: IPFW by 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 555-556: UMKC at IUPUI
Dunkel Ratings: UMKC 43.444; IUPUI 62.478
Dunkel Line: IUPUI by 19
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 557-558: South Dakota State at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 53.627; Oakland 58.646
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 559-560: Southern Utah at Western Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 39.536; Western Illinois 51.268
Dunkel Line: Western Illinois by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 561-562: Tennessee Tech at Austin Peay
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 48.308; Austin Peay 53.460
Dunkel Line: Austin Peay by 5
Vegas Line: Austin Peay by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (+9 1/2)
Marc Lawrence
Auburn at Florida
Play: Florida
The Gators host the Tigers in an SEC showdown in Gainesville Thursday night with revenge on their minds from being booted from the conference tourney by Auburn last season. Florida is also playing off an immediate home loss - a 12-point defeat suffered against Xavier on Saturday - a role in which they are 7-0-1 ATS of late. The Gators are also 6-1 ATS off a loss in this series, including 3-0 ATS at home with every win by 16 or more points. With Auburn just 2-13 ATS on the road against opponents off a straight up favorite loss, we're compelled to lay the wood with Florida here tonight.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Boston Celtics at LA Lakers
No Kobe Bryant, no problem. The Celtics have been just woeful against the pointspread over the last three weeks or so, going 2-11-1 ATS the last 14 games. They couldn't beat the Lakers at home back on January 31st, their third straight head to head loss to LA. Boston is also 0-7 ATS vs. the Pacific Division this season as well as 0-11 ATS coming off back to back Unders.
Play on: LA Lakers
Terron Chapman
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -1
Minnesota (14-10) will play the first of two remaining home games against ranked opponents when it faces No. 14 Wisconsin (19-6) on Thursday night at Williams Arena . The Gophers haven’t beat a ranked Big Ten team this season and have lost six of their last eight games. The Gophers probably need to win five of their last six games just to be in the conversation come March. Good news for the Gophers is four of their final six games are at the “Barn” where they are 11-2 on the season.
You can expect the Gophers to be in desperation mode Thursday night in what could be the only meeting with their rival unless the two meet in the Big Ten tournament. Head coach Tubby Smith has been preaching a sense of urgency in practice and I look for the Gophers to respond. “Every game should be a game played like it’s your last game, your first game or your only game, and when it’s not, there’s not much coaches can do,” Smith said. “We’ve got to step it up and find a way to play better.”
The Gophers won both meetings last season so they shouldn’t lack confidence heading into this rivalry game. They play much better at home, shooting just under 51% from the floor while holding opponents to just under 38% from the field. The Badgers are just 3-4 away from Madison, shooting just 42% from the field. The Badgers will get a lot of looks from the marketplace because of their defense, but it should be noted that they are allowing opponents to shoot nearly 44% on the road.
It’s hard to go against a desperate team on their home floor in a rivalry game. The Gophers know what’s at stake and I expect them to play like it. There’s value with the home team and we’ll back them in a game that they have to have. Play on the Minnesota Golden Gophers for 1 unit.
Charlie Scott
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota
Play: Wisconsin +1.5
An undisciplined Minnesota Gopher team that struggles to score points, sets up to be the perfect opponent for the physical, defensive-minded, slow paced, well-coached Bo Ryan Wisconsin Badgers. Minnesota coming off an OT loss at Northwestern struggles to finish games, while Wisconsin's style of play wears opponents down. Minnesota is 2-6 s/u their last 8 games ! Play on Wisconsin !
LARRY NESS
Saint Mary's @ San Diego
PICK: Saint Mary's -7
St Mary's made the NCAA field in 2008 with 25 wins but the Gaels' 26 wins last year wasn't enough. St Mary's won two games in the NIT before losing 70-66 at San Diego State, leaving the team one win shy of advancing to the NIT's Final 4. St Mary's 28 wins last season gave the school a two-year total of 53 wins but four starters are gone from last year's team, including leading scorer Mills (18.4) and three-time All-WCC forward Simpson (13.8-10.8). Omar Samham (14.1-9.8), the team's 6-11 senior did return and he's averaging 21.5-11.2 this season. Wayne Hunter filled in for Mills last year when he was hurt and big things were expected this year. However, Hunter (and his 11.0 PPG) was lost for the season with a knee injury after seven games. Junior guard McConnell (13.7-5.2 APG) has been very good, as has Dellavedona (12.1-4.6 APG), a freshman guard from Australia. Helping Samham inside has been the 6-11 Allen, who couldn't find much playing time last year after transferring from Indiana (2.2-1.8) but has averaged 10.4-7.3 this season. St Mary's was 21-3 entering last week but has lost its first two games of this current three-game road swing. The back-to-back losses at Gonzaga (80-61) and Portland (80-75 in OT) have really damaged St Mary's at-large chances. Winning at San Diego is almost a must. The Gaels handled San Diego easily back on January 21 by the score of 71-56 at home. Samham had 20-9 and Allen 14-11, as the Toreros were held to 35.6 percent from the floor. San Diego won the WCC tourney title back in 2008 and then shocked U Conn in the first round of the NCAAs, all in Bill Grier's first season as head coach. However, the Toreros finished just 16-16 last season and come into this game 9-18, including 2-9 in WCC play. Brandon Jackson (14.9-2.5-3.3) has bounced back from an injury-marred 2008-09 season to play well but his backcourt partner Jackson (12.0-3.2-2.6), has just recently been lost for the rest of the year due to a knee injury. The 6-9 Mafra (8.0-4.2) is really the only big man of note for San Diego and he hardly matches up well with Samham, not to mention Allen. No revenge for San Diego here. Take the road favorite in a "must-win" situation.
JIM FEIST
USC / WASHINGTON
TAKE: Under
After stumbling in midseason, the Trojans just ripped off three straight wins using defense, topping Cal, Stanford and rival UCLA. 6-5 senior Dwight Lewis (13.7 ppg) leads the team in scoring, but it's the defense that is most impressive for first-year Coach Kevin O'Neill, allowing 59 ppg and 40% shooting, both second to Arizona State in the conference. The physical frontcourt sports 6-10 sophomore Nikola Vucevic (11.6 ppg, 9.8 rpg), 6-9 junior Alex Stepheson (9 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and 6-6 senior Marcus Johnson (10 ppg, 4.6 rpg). USC is 14-5-1 under the total. They won't want to get into a run-and-gun game with uptempo Washington, a team that is 2-1 under the total the last three games. Look for the visitors to control the pace; Play USC/Washington Under the total.
SPORTS WAGERS
Norway +5½ -1.20 over USA
The Norwegians 8-0 loss to the Canadians has created a case of overcompensation against them. The Americans should definitely win here but damn, they’ll be very hard-pressed to score six goals, let alone cover six goals. Besides, that 8-0 loss was a bit misleading and the Norwegians can take pride in the fact that the score was 0-0 after the first period and despite the final score they still put a little scare into the “powerful” Canadians. This Norwegian team appears to be solid in net, they’re quick and they’re unlikely to get blown out by the Americans. The books see a final score of 8-0 and post a line based on that and the fact that the Americans are one of the “Big-4”. This could be a very low-scoring game, as the Norwegians play the “trap” well and that’s going to be its strategy again while hoping to capitalize on any miscues the Americans make. This is a sweet 5½-goal takeback that should not be overlooked. Play: Norway +5½ (Risking 2.4 units to win 2).
James Patrick Sports
Cleveland State vs. Wisconsin Milwaukee
In Thursday Horizon League action HC Gary Waters and his Vikings haven't had much luck in the Brew Capital going (3-12) ATS in their past (15) meetings and that includes a (2-7) ATS in Milwaukee. We'll side with the Black Cats here as James Patrick Sports Thursday College Basketball selection is Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers.
Tom Freese
Florida Atlantic at Florida International
Florida International is 7-21 overall and 4-11 in Conference Play. The Golden Panthers are led in scoring by forward Marvin Roberts and his 16.1 points a game. Guard Phil Gary scores 9.7 points a game. Forward Marvin Bright scores 9 points and 6 rebounds a game. J.C. Otero scores 8.8 points and 6.7 rebounds a game. The Golden Panthers are 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 games as home underdogs and they are 20-36 ATS off 4 or more straight losses. Florida Atlantic is 13-12 overall and 9-5 in League Play. Guard Greg Gantt scores 15.8 points a game while shooting 41% from behind the arc. Guard Raymond Taylor scores 14.4 points and 6.1 assists a game. Guard Sanchez Hughley scores 10 points a game. Forward Brett Royster scores 9.7 points and 6.8 rebounds a game. Guard Shavar Richardson scores 8.4 points a game. The Owls score 75 points a game. Florida Atlantic is 11-4 ATS their last 15 Conference games and they are 4-1 ATS their last games as favorites. PLAY ON FLORIDA ATLANTIC -
EZWINNERS
Gonzaga Bulldogs -11.5
The Zags have won their last two trips to Loyola Marymount by an average of 28 points per game and I see another big win for Gonzaga in this meeting tonight. The Lions have not been a good bet as a home underdog as they are only 9-19 against the spread the last 28 time they have been catching points at home. The Bulldogs are playing their best basketball of the season. The defensive energy that they had been lacking in late January has returned in their last three wins against Memphis, St. Marys and San Diego. Gonzaga has won five straight meetings between these two teams and they covered the spread in four out of those five meetings. I expect that trend to continue here, lay the points.
Tony George
Syracuse +2 vs Georgetown
I like the Orange in this game. They have already pounded GT at home by a score of 73-56, and while on the road, they are 8-1 ATS their last 9. I like them even better coming off a big loss where they dropped their guard against a so/so Louisville team and will be focused against their rival, a team they know they can beat.
One thing about GT, they have beaten Nova and Duke at home this season, but if you look deep into their stats, in their last 5 games they are allowing 12 ppg on defense over their season average. Against a good defensive team like Syracuse, who likes to slow it, play disciplined basketball, it takes GT out of their rhythm on offense. Syracuse is GREAT cover team going 24-9 ATS their last 33 games, and 15-6 ATS their last 21 Big East Games. They only have 2 losses on the season for a reason, they play good in big time games, none bigger than this.
Hollywood Sports
E. Washington at Northern Colorado
Prediction: Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado (20-6) should outclass an upstart but young Eastern Washington (8-18) club tonight. Three freshman play a critical role for the Eagles and have helped them earn two straight upset wins at home against Montana State and Montana. But playing on the road remains a difficult challenge for first-year players. Eastern Washington is 2-13 away from their home court with a troubling -15.3 net point differential. They shoot below 42% from the field on the road but even more disturbing is their defense away from home which allows 79.2 PPG on 49.9% shooting. And the Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Northern Colorado returns home where they are looking to bounce-back from their disappointing 81-76 loss to Big Sky leading Weber State. Despite the loss, the Bears are still fighting for second place in the Big Sky which earns them the right to a first-round bye in the conference tournament. The Bears are a dominant 10-1 at home with a +11.9 net point differential. They score a stout 79.8 PPG on their home court. And, overall, they hold their opponents to just 43% shooting from the field. Northern Colorado consistently bounces-back from disappointments as they have covered 23 of their last 33 games coming off a loss. They should overwhelm the young Eagles tonight. Lay the points with Northern Colorado.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Ole Miss -3.5
This is a look ahead spot for Vandy which has a rematch with Kentucky on Saturday. Meanwhile, Ole Miss will be out for blood after losing to rival Mississippi State. Plus, double digit scorer John Jenkins and solid contributor Andre Walker are both listed as questionable for this contest. I like Ole Miss in this spot regardless but it's nice to know a couple of Vandy's key guys won't be at full strength even if they do play. A positive for Ole Miss is they are expected to get strong inside presence Reginald Buckner back. This is a matchup that has been dominated by the favorite as the favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. We also like the fact that Ole Miss is 8-0 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. And Vandy is just 1-8 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.