Jimmy the Moose
Nuggets vs. Cavaliers
Play Over 206
With a lineup that includes Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups the Nuggets are definitely one of the more exciting teams to watch in the NBA. The Nuggets are averaging 107.2 PPG while giving up 102.2 per contest. Denver travels to Cleveland having played the over in 3 of their last 4 games overall. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Denver has played over the total in 6 of their last 7 games vs. a team from the Eastern Conference.
The Cavaliers average 102.9 PPG at home and look for them to put up points vs. this Nuggets D. LeBron James is inline tonight for a monstrous game. The over is 3-0 in the Cavaliers last 3 games and all games were played at home. In their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record the over is 6-1-1. The over is 5-2-1 in the Cavaliers last 8 games vs. a team from the Northwest Division.
With this many superstars on the floor tonight don't expect either team to impress with their defense. Both teams open it up and run tonight in a high-scoring game.
Rocketman
Middle Tennessee State @ Troy
Play: Troy -2.5
Troy is 28-11 SU the past 3 years in all home games including 8-2 SU at home this year. Troy is scoring 77 points per game overall this year and 80.5 points per game at home this season. Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Trojans are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss. Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Troy tonight!
Insider Angles
This a case of an Austin Peay Governors team that is probably better than their 15-12 record hosting a Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles club that is not as good as their 13-14 mark, and the end result should be a safe, double-digit Austin Peay win at home.
Frankly, even at one game below .500, Tennessee Tech must be winning with smoke and mirrors, as they have the numbers of a team that should have single-digit wins. The Eagles are allowing an incredible 80.9 points per game vs. Division I opponents, and when they go on the road as they are here, they are surrendering 84.6 points per contest on an extremely generous 48.6 percent shooting from the floor.
For further proof of just how horrendous the Tech defense is, they rank 344 out of 347 Division I teams in defensive efficiency according to Pomeroy, allowing 1.146 points per possession. The only three teams ranked worse are Maryland-Baltimore County (3-24), Portland State (10-15) and VMI (10-16), none of which have more than 10 wins.
Austin Peay is 10-2 at home, and the two losses came vs. a Murray State team that is easily the best team in the Ohio Valley Conference and vs. a Drake club from the much stronger Missouri Valley Conference. The Governors have won four straight games at home, and the last time they hosted the Golden Eagles, they won by 16 points here last season.
A similar result on Thursday would be not at all surprising.
Pick: Austin Peay -9.5
Matt Fargo
3* Arkansas St. Red Wolves
This is a big game for both sides. Arkansas St. is leading the Sun Belt West by a half-game over North Texas while Louisiana-Lafayette trails by two games. A win by the Cajuns pulls them to within a game with three to play but it is not going to be easy. This line is higher than it should be and that is because of Lafayette’s 6-0 home record in conference action. The problem with that is three of those wins came against the three worst teams in the conference, New Orleans, Florida International and Arkansas-Little Rock. The wins over Denver, Troy and North Texas were good but two were very close and the overall home numbers are skewed by those three blowout wins against lesser opposition. The Cajuns lost the first meeting three weeks ago in Jonesboro which sets up a revenge spot but I hardly see a comfortable win by Lafayette with so much at stake for both sides. This is the final road game for the Red Wolves who play their final three games of the season at the friendly confines of the Convocation Center where they are 9-3 this season. On the road, Arkansas St. is a respectable 6-7 on the season including a 4-3 mark in conference action. This team has edges all over the place including big categories such as assist/turnover ratio, rebounding margin and shooting defense, both regular and long range. The Red Wolves bring in the higher RPI by a wide margin and that comes with playing a tougher schedule as well. Arkansas St. has been up and down of late but the overall play on the road has been solid as it is 7-3-1 ATS in its 11 lined road games and it is 6-1 ATS this season against teams with a losing record. The Red Wolves are also 8-1 ATS when their opponent is coming off a road loss and that shows there is no letting up or looking past a game. A lot of this is coaching as ex-LSU coach John Brady is one of the best in this conference so it is no wonder that is the came. Brady is 16-4 ATS in his last 20 road games coached when playing as an underdog between 6.5 and 9 points. Arkansas St. has every chance to win this one outright but we will grab the generous points anyway. 3* Arkansas St. Red Wolves
Nelly
Auburn + over Florida
Auburn owns a losing record but the Tigers have become a tough out in SEC play. In the last eight games Auburn has only one ATS loss with five wins and two pushes. One of the pushes came last weekend at Mississippi State in a game that went to overtime but Auburn eventually lost by ten. Both of the last two road games for Auburn went to overtime and Auburn has not lost ATS in any of the past four road contests. Florida has lost back-to-back games and the Gators have fallen into a thin comfort zone for the NCAA tournament picture but Florida’s strong early start was built on several incredibly fortunate wins. Florida's home court edge is not impressive, including three home losses in the past six home games and the Gators lost the last meeting with Auburn last year in the SEC conference tournament. Auburn has been the more consistent offensive team and scoring has been a recent problem for the Gators, averaging just 66 points per game over the last five contests. Auburn has been incredibly competitive in SEC games over the last month and this is a lot of points to give with a struggling Florida team that is not likely to post a big point total.
Cajun Sports
USC Trojans @ Washington Huskies
Play: 2* Washington Huskies -8
The college basketball regular season is down to the final few weeks and the USC Trojans will not be playing in any postseason tournaments because of self-imposed sanctions. The Trojans may not be fully focused here having to travel late in the season with nothing to play for and this has been a tough place to play of late with the Huskies winning their last six on this floor. The Trojans have shown the ability to play solid defense but we do not expect that tonight because they lack the motivation to dominate this Huskies team. The Trojans have struggled on the offensive end of the floor this season by not moving without the ball and playing without focus on a regular basis. The Huskies on the other hand can control this game on both ends of the floor especially if they can get out in transition against a lackluster Trojans defense. The Trojans are only averaging 56.6 points per game on the highway this season while the Huskies are averaging 86.4 points per game on their home floor. In recent weeks we have talked about going against situational trends that have a tendency to reverse themselves this time of the year each year and we see that USC is 7-1 as an underdog this season and we expect there to be a 2 in the loss column after tonight and continue the reversal of that simple trend. Lay the chalk with the host Huskies on Thursday night as they roll past the Trojans at Bank of America Arena in Seattle.
Sean Higgs
E. Washington vs. NO. Colorado
Play: E. Washington +14.5
Taking the Eagles of Eastern Washington here. A small play as I ask myself why a line drops 2 points with 20-6 team, 10-1 at home vs a team that 8-18 overall with a road record of 2-11. Eastern Washington has covered 3 of the last 5 missing 1 cover by a point and winning 2 outright. Also, the largest loss was 13. Offensivly these two are pretty comparable. Two of Northern Colorados top 3 scores Devon Beitzal (doubtful) and Taylor Montgomery (probable) may just see limited action. Eagles have a solid top rotation of 3 players averaging double figuers and 2 others at nearly 9ppg. 5 of their top 6 all shoot better than 75% from the FT line.
John Ryan
South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky
Play: South Alabama +12.5
3* graded play on South Alabama as they take on Western Kentucky set to start at 8:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that South Alabama will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 39-14 ATS for 74% winners since 1997. Play against a home team after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game and in a game involving two marginal winning teams winning 51% to 60% of their games. Both teams are 15-12, but WK has had a far more difficult schedule and they should be favored, but this is just too many points. SA has won 2 straight and 3 of the past 4 games. This places them in a solid role noting they are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Yet, when we look at common opponents SA is 7-7 SU and 6-8 ATS while WK is 7-7 SU and 6-7-1 ATS. Overall schedule is not nearly as accurate a barometer as common opponents. What is also noteworthy is that SA posted a 10-4 UNDER mark while WK posted a 10-3 OVER mark in these games. This shows that SA plays a slower paced game and focuses more on the defensive end and this combination will help to make this game very close. Take South Alabama.
Wunderdog
California vs. Oregon State
Play: Under 130
California appears to be the best the Pac-10 has to offer this season. The conference does not have a top 25 team, and the talent level is down as low as ever. The Beavers are a Princeton-style offense that doesn't score much, and shortens games. The Beavers are averaging just 53.4 points per game in their last eight games and consequently, have rang the UNDER bell in their last seven in Pac-10 play. Cal has displayed the ability to score, but this will be a frustrating game for them as they managed just 65 at home vs. the Beavers earlier, and the home team does a better job at controlling tempo. The Beavers have played 18 of their last 24 vs. Pac-10 competition to the UNDER. I'll go with this one to stay UNDER the total.
Mike Anthony
Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -3.5
L.A. has an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 games, an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games following an ATS loss, and has an Under record of 8-3 in their last 11 home games against teams that have a road winning percentage above 60%.
On the injury front SF Paul Pierce is day-to-day for Boston and SG Kobe Bryant and C Andrew Bynum are day-to-day for L.A. The Lakers have proved that they can win without Kobe in the lineup, but I find it hard to believe that Bryant will not play in this huge rivalry game. With or without Kobe the Lakers are simply too strong at home and better coached and they will win this game, which will mean they will sweep the season series between these 2 teams.
Black Widow
1* on Syracuse +2
In our opinion from watching most of the games in the Big East this season, Syracuse is the most complete team in this conference. Meanwhile, we strongly feel that Georgetown is one of the most overrated teams in the league. The Hoyas are still in the Top-10 despite losing 6 games this season. One of those losses came at Syracuse, 73-56, in a game that Georgetown led 14-0 to start. The Hoyas rely solely on 3 players to carry the team, while Syracuse can bring guys off the bench and still be just as productive when their starters sit. That's the difference between these two teams. The Orange play a zone defense, which is the perfect strategy to stop Georgetown considering the Hoyas are don't have too many guys who can light it up from distance. Coming off a loss to Louisville, the Orange won't be having a letdown here. Syracuse is 9-0 S.U. & 8-1 ATS in road games this season, a clear sign of an experienced group that doesn't get rattled on the road. Georgetown is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. Syracuse is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. Take Syracuse and the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Wisconsin Badgers +1
Wisconsin is coming off a huge blowout win over Indiana and I expect not letdown at Minnesota tonight. In fact, plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WISCONSIN), an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after a blowout win by 20 points or more, are 31-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Golden Gophers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the Badgers for 1 Unit.
John Martin
1 Unit on New Orleans +11
I know that New Orleans has lost 7 straight games, but with their struggles comes some serious line value that is too good to pass up tonight. LA-Monroe has no business being favored by 11 points in this game. First off, LA-Monroe has only 11 wins this season, and just 3 of those wins have come by more than 11 points. Those victories came against the likes of Alcorn State, Harding and Southwest, three teams that are not even in Division-1 basketball and there wasn't even a line set on any of those 3 contests because of it. So they have yet to beat a D-1 opponent by this margin, and New Orleans isn't going to fall by this margin tonight. They'll be looking for some payback tonight following a 47-48 home loss to LA-Monroe in their first meeting. Looking back to 2008, I find that the last 4 meetings in this head-to-head series have all been decided by 6 points or less. Expect more of the same tonight. Cash in with New Orleans as the underdog.
Info Plays
3* on Cleveland Cavaliers -6
Reasons why the Cavaliers cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Favorites (CLEVELAND) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite, playing with 3 or more days rest. This is a 36-16 ATS System hitting 69.2% over the last 5 seasons.
2.) Cleveland is chomping at the bit to get back on the floor for their first game after the All-Star Break. They cannot wait to try and stretch their league-high winning streak to 14 games tonight and to get a little revenge from a 97-99 loss at Denver back on January 8th of this year. Cleveland is 15-2 ATS in home games after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since 1996. This is a team you will want to keep riding while they are playing their best ball of the season. Bet the Cavaliers at home.
Dave Price
1 Unit on St. Mary's -7
Off back-to-back losses, expect a motivated St. Mary's squad to take a San Diego team that has lost 9 of its last 10 out behind the wood shed. St. Mary's won the seasons first meeting by 15 points and should be motivated enough to conquer San Diego by double digits again. The Gaels are 14-3 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 81.0 to 57.9. Lay the points.