Jack Jones
Pittsburgh vs. Marquette
Play: Marquette -6
Marquette has stepped up to the level of their competition this year, going 11-4 ATS against teams with a winning record. They also play well against good defensive teams, going 40-23 ATS against teams who allow less than 64 ppg in the second half of the past 13 seasons.
The Golden Eagles are looking to impress the NCAA Tournament committee and they can do so tonight with a win over a ranked opponent in Pittsburgh. The Panthers are just 5-5 on the road this year and are coming off a big home win over West Virginia. This is also a possible look ahead spot to Villanova on Saturday. Marquette on the other hand has three road games coming up and knows they have to win here tonight, so lay the points.
Jeff Benton
Hope you took advantage of Wednesday’s easy wire-to-wire free-play 7♦ winner on BYU minus the points at Colorado State. That’s now four straight complimentary winners. On top of that, I’m on runs of 23-10, 13-4 and 10-3 with plays that I’m giving away! For Thursday’s freebie, I’ll head to the Pac-10 and lay the small points with Oregon against Stanford.
The only reason I’m not giving out Oregon as a premium selection is because the Ducks have really struggled lately, losing eight of their last 10 games after starting conference play with a pair of impressive road upsets of Washington State and Washington. However, the two wins came in their last two home games (71-66 over UCLA as a four-point chalk) and USC (67-57 as a two-point underdog).
Now they welcome Stanford to the McArthur Court, and no team in the nation has been worse on the road than the Cardinal – that’s because you can’t do worse than zero wins. Yep, Stanford is 0-10 in true road games this year, including 0-6 in Pac-10 road games. True, half of those six conference road defeats were respectable (5, 4 and 4 points), but to cover this short spread, Stanford’s basically will have to win outright. Again, winning on the road is something the Cardinal haven’t done all season.
Throw in the fact that the home team has won seven straight in this rivalry (6-0 ATS in the last six), and there’s only one way to look in this one, and that’s with the Ducks.
5♦ OREGON
Stephen Nover
I'm playing Marquette over Pittsburgh in Big East play tonight.
I've been on a nice run with my free selections going 4-1 on my past five complementary selections. I like Marquette to cover as a home favorite on Thursday against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh has been a tough road team under Jamie Dixon. But the Panthers have a wretched history when playing at Marquette.
The Golden Eagles are 3-0 versus Pitt at home since joining the Big East Conference in 2005. When the Panthers last traveled to Milwaukee to face the Golden Eagles they lost 72-54 two seasons ago. It ranks as one of their worst losses in the Dixon era.
Marquette is putting on a late rush in order to ensure an NCAA Tournament bid. The Golden Eagles have won five in a row, the longest winning streak in the Big East right now. This is a crucial game for Marquette because a home loss could jeopardize its tournament hopes.
Marquette is a senior-driven team that can shoot long range. All five of its starters are making at least 35 percent of their 3-point shots.
This is going to be a tough game for Pittsburgh to get up for following the Panthers' dramatic 98-95 triple overtime victory against West Virginia in their last game. The Panthers host Villanova in a big nationally televised (CBS) game on Sunday.
2♦ MARQUETTE
Scott Delaney
Arkansas State at La Lafayette
Taking it to the Sun Belt Conference tonight for this winner on Arkansas State, which is playing its final regular season road game of the season.
I know the Cajuns are undefeated at home, but Ark State already owns a win over ULL this season, a 62-60 victory on Jan. 28 at the Convocation Center.
With ASU?deadlocked in a tie with MTSU?at the top of the Sun Belt Conference and holding the tiebreaker over the Blue Raiders, the Red Wolves could enter tournament play as the top-seed if tournament play began today.
But I don't believe the Red Wolves want to rest and suffer any letdown.
This is a critical game to stay focused.
5♦ ARKANSAS STATE
Craig Davis
The Panthers are out for revenge tonight at home, and Vegas has set us up nicely with this line. Cleveland State has been playing above their heads recently, winning six of their last eight games, moving them to 9-6 in Horizon Conference play and currently in fourth place in the conference. I think we all know that's not going to last and I'd be surprised if they don't finish outside the top 6 when all is said and done. Their 13-14 overall record should be the first indication that this team is getting too much love because of its recent conference run, and after the Panthers lay the "beat down" on them tonight, the rest of the world will take note. Milwaukee plays exceptionally better at home, winning 8 of 11 tries in their backyard. The Vikings, on the other, are awful on the road, winning just three times in 11 chances. Cleveland State is just 8-13-1 ATS for the season while Milwaukee is 13-9-1 in 23 lined games. Wisconsin Green Bay, who had previously lost a meeting on the road at Cleveland State, just pummeled the Vikings Tuesday when they got them back at their place, and I expect the Panthers to get the same sort of revenge tonight. Cleveland State is a dismal 3-12 ATS in their last 15 meetings with UW-Milwaukee. I'll take my chances with the home team tonight laying this small number. Panthers by 9.
2♦ WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE
Bobby Maxwell
Denver at CLEVELAND -6
Delivered two FREE winners on Wednesday with Missouri over Texas on the college hardwood and Dallas over Phoenix in the NBA. Improved my comp record to 53-21-1 with my last 75 freebies and I have another winner for you today as I lay the chalk with the Cavaliers hosting the Nuggets.
Both these teams have been off for a week now and some big news from the Cavs on Wednesday as they were part of a three-team deal that landed them Antawn Jamison from the Wizards and Sebastian Telfair from the Clippers. This team has won 13 straight games and just improved itself by adding a true professional in Jamison and an exciting backup point guard in Telfair.
Without losing any starters, the Cavaliers aren’t going to skip a beat tonight. Jamison will blend in seamlessly while Telfair won’t get much playing time down the stretch this season but will make things fun in the few minutes he does get. Cleveland is 24-3 in front of the home fans this season and they are 3-1 ATS after three or more days off this season.
For guys like Shaq and the guards of DeLonte West and Mo Williams, this long break has done them a world of good and you’ll see refreshed legs come out tonight. Plus the excitement of having Jamison in the lineup will lead the Cavs to their 14th straight win. And having the world’s greatest player on the court in LeBron James always helps too.
The Nuggets have some questions to answer in the second half of the season with their coach George Karl already announcing he has throat cancer and will be missing some games this season. They also have injuries to Kenyon Martin they need to get cleared.
Cleveland is on ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 4-0-1 on Thursdays and 4-1 against Western Conference teams. I like the Cavaliers in this one as the crowd is going to be fired up for the new players and to get a big win over Carmelo and the Nuggets. Lay the chalk with Cleveland tonight.
5♦ CLEVELAND
Karl Garrett
Gonzaga (-12) at LOYOLA MARYLAND
G-Man putting on the lumberjack shirt this Thursday, and laying the lumber with Gonzaga to once again handle their conference business against Loyola Marymount.
Gonzaga has won the last 5 series meetings, and 9 of the last 10 overall, and the Bulldogs have covered in 4 of the last 5 showdowns.
The 'Zags have won 4 straight, and 13 of their last 14 coming into this game, and they have also gone 9-4-1 against the spread in those 14 games.
The Lions are only 4-5 against the spread at home this year, and tonight is not the night they stop their series slide against the Top-10 Bulldogs.
G-Man laying the double-digits here.
4♦ GONZAGA
Derek Mancini
Wisconsin at MINNESOTA (-1)
I delivered wins with both Freebies yesterday, as Purdue and Miami (FL) bring home the cash! Concentrating on the Big Ten with Thursday's comp pick, as Minnesota hosts Wisconsin!
Nice bounce back win by the Badgers, after an embarassing home loss to the Illini last Tuesday. They romped the Hoosiers 83-55, and gamblers everywhere are now convinced it'll carryover into tonight's game. Gophers come into this game having lost 3 of 4 SU and are on a 0-9 slide ATS overall... So no surprise we're seeing heavy action on Wisconsin.
It may be "no surprise" gamblers are liking Wisky in this spot, but that doesn't mean its the right move. Minnesota has been very tough at Williams Arena, and the chances of them playing another bad game there (after losing to Michigan in their last home game) are slim-to-none! This game is simply more important for Tubby and his boys.
Gophers make their living with defense, and that's where they have the edge vs. a Badgers offense that has been known to dry-up on the road. Badgers scored 51 points at Ohio State, 57 points at Purdue - that's not going to be good enough against the Gophers. Minny's offense has been up-and-down lately, but Westbrook has killed the Badgers in the past, and he'll get his team back on track tonight. Play Minnesota in this contest.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Chuck O'Brien
Portland (-10') at PEPPERDINE
Take Portland and lay the points at Pepperdine in West Coast Conference hoops action on Thursday.
I scored a 30 Dime winner with Portland on Saturday, as the Pilots gutted out an 80-75 overtime victory over St. Mary’s. Normally, I’d be worried about a letdown after such a big win, but in this case I’m not because Pepperdine is dreadful.
The Waves come into this game having lost seven in a row (1-5-1 ATS), with five of the last six defeats being by double digits. Pepperdine’s seven-game slide includes an 80-64 loss at Portland on Jan. 23, and even though the Waves managed to scratch out a push as a 16-point underdog, they’ve still lost the last four meetings in this rivalry (0-3-1 ATS) by margins of 16, 24, 29 and 15 points. Portland’s also 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Pepperdine (and that was with some subpar Pilots teams).
Portland is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine games overall, all in conference, where the Pilots sport a 7-3 SU record. Those three league losses came against Gonzaga (twice) and St. Mary’s (on the road), clearly the top two teams in the WCC. Even with the narrow victory over St. Mary’s on Saturday, Portland’s seven league wins have been by an average of 17.4 ppg.
The Pilots are 12-3-1 against the number versus teams with a losing record and they’ve cashed in four of five road games, while Pepperdine is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 at home.
3♦ PORTLAND
Chris Jordan
Vanderbilt (+4) at MISSISSIPPI
Taking the Commodores on the road tonight, as they're sitting 1-1/2 games back of Kentucky in the SEC East standings and have one more shot at the Wildcats on Saturday night.
I'm not going to worry too much about the lookahead factor, as Mississippi is an impressive 17-7 overall and isn't exactly the type of team you look past.
Vanderbilt has been a tough customer on the road all season and will have no trouble keeping this one within four points. In fact, I'm not going to lie when I say I expect them to win this one outright.
A quick glance at the numbers don't contradict, as Vanderbilt is in on winning runs of 7-1 against Mississippi, 13-2 straight-up and six of eight versus the books agaisnt Ole Miss.
1♦ VANDERBILT