Nelly
Atlanta - over Memphis
The Hawks quietly own one of the NBA’s best records at 16-6 and not surprisingly this has been an excellent ATS performer as well. Atlanta has not played the toughest of schedules but they are out-scoring foes by seven points per game and at home that margin in nearly twelve points per game. Memphis had lost four in a row before stealing a narrow home win over the Nuggets on Tuesday, winning 100-97 in overtime. It was a game that Denver had 25 turnovers in and from the looks of the other numbers the Grizzlies had little business winning as they shot poorly in the game. On the road this season Memphis is scoring less than 86 points per game and the Grizzlies are just 4-7 in road contests this season, both S/U and ATS and now going back to last season Memphis is on a 4-10 ATS road run. Atlanta is 8-2 ATS in the last ten meetings between these teams and the only home loss all season for the Hawks came in overtime against Miami. All four road wins for the Grizzlies came against losing teams and the struggling Grizzlies will have trouble keeping pace in this game against an Atlanta defense that is playing excellent ball in recent weeks. The Hawks continue to be undervalued and this is a good set-up for a solid home win.
Steve Janus
New Orleans Hornets +9
My money is on the New Orleans Hornets to come out with their best effort against the Spurs tonight. The key here is to look past the individual records of both teams and look at situation facing both teams. There is no question that the Spurs are the better team, but this is a very difficult spot for San Antonio. Not only are the Spurs playing the second of a back-to-back, but they are playing their fourth game in five days. The Hornets find themselves in the exact same situation, but it will be more difficult for the aging Spurs to get up for a bad team than it will for the Hornets to try and beat one of the top teams.
I understand the Spurs are a much better team at home than they are on the road, but you can't ignore the fact that they won by just 2-points (104-102)at New Orleans earlier this season.
Another thing you have to take into consideration is the 30 minutes logged by veteran Tim Duncan in the Spurs 18-point second half rally against the Rockets last night. Duncan's minutes have been limited all season. I believe there's a good chance he won't play very much in this game if at all.
The Spurs are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, while the Hornets are an impressive 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Hollywood Sports
Arizona at California
Play: California
The Golden Bears (17-5) remained a perfect 14-0 at home this season after their 69-59 win over Stanford on Saturday. Cal is outscoring their opponents by a dominating +20.5 PPG on their home court this season led by a dynamic offense that is scoring 73.5 PPG on hot 50.5% shooting. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games as well as 12 of their last 16 games as a favorite. But the level of Cal's improvement this season is best measured by looking into some of their deeper metrics. Head coach Mike Montgomery returned everyone from last year's 18-15 NIT team except for Markhury Sanders-Frison. While the Golden Bears are tied with Washington for 1st place in the Pac-12 with their 7-2 record, their net Points-Per-Possession efficiency margin of +0.14 against conference competition (Offensive PPP: 1.09; Defensive PPP: 0.95) is best in the conference. Improving the play on the defensive end of the court was the primary goal for Montgomery in the offseason and so far the Golden Bears are holding teams to a staggering 0.15 Points-Per-Possession lower rate than their 1.10 defensive PPP efficiency against conference opponents last season. Arizona (14-8) enters this game off a 69-67 loss at home against a Washington team that tends to struggle on the road in conference play. The Wildcats are 5-4 in Pac-12 play while their net PPP efficiency margin of +0.11 against conference opponents is 2nd best (Offensive PPP: 1.03; Defensive PPP: 0.91). However, that Offensive PPP of 1.03 is 8th in the conference which begs the question if they can score enough points with Cal to keep up with them on their home court. Arizona is 11th in the Pac-12 by hitting only 46.0% of their shots from inside the arc -- and their effective field goal percentage (eFG: FG% + 50% 3-PT FG%) of 50.8% is just 8th in the conference. And these conference comparative statistics need to be contextualized by the fact that the Wildcats have already played the weakest four teams in the conference while Cal has yet to play a 3-6 Arizona State team -- so the actual divide these two teams is likely even wider. Considering that Arizona is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Cal -- and those games were with superstar Derrick Williams who has since taken his talents to the NBA -- the Golden Bears are in a very good spot here. Take California minus the points in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
VIRGINIA TECH +4½ over Duke
Let's see if we have this right. The Hokies are at the bottom of the ACC standings with just one win in the conference. They've lost six of their past seven games and overall they're a pedestrian 12-9. They virtually have no shot of competing in this year's Madness and they've also lost three straight at home. Va Tech's last home win was over Eastern Michigan on De3cember 22, well over a month ago. Meanwhile, Duke is 18-3 overall and 5-1 in the conference. They're ranked #5 in the nation and remain one of the most popular teams in the country, especially to those that don't follow college basketball closely. Football bettors are looking for teams to parlay with their Super Bowl choice on Sunday and you can be sure this one will be on their radar. The books have made the Dukies an enticingly short favorite and that's a red flag for us. If Baylor was a -7 point choice at Texas A&M yesterday, how can the Blue Devils be just -4½ at Va Tech? Forget x's and o's. It's no secret that Duke is the vastly superior team here. However, we know a trap when we see one and this is one we’re not going to get caught in. Play: #514 Virginia Tech +4½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Vegas Experts
Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers
Play: Denver Nuggets
Denver takes on the Clippers tonight and look for them to bounce back after coming off back to back losses both straight up and against the spread, including that 109-105 loss to the Clippers as 5.5 point home favorites. The Clippers are due for a loss since they have won four straight matchups and they won against Utah late last night 107-105. Denver had the day off last night and will come back with a strong performance revenging that tough loss just a few days back.
WUNDERDOG
Utah at Golden State
Pick: Utah +5
Utah is in the second of a back-to-back spot, but is a fine team with good depth. Utah center Al Jefferson (inflamed right ankle) is back in the lineup, joining Josh Howard with Gordon Hayward sliding down to shooting guard. They come off a close loss to the Clippers last night, 107-105, and Jazz coach Tyrone Corbin said LA's 50-35 rebounding edge was a big factor. Al Jefferson had 27 points and 12 rebounds to lead the Jazz, looking sharp and healthy. They won't get outrebounded this game, however, against a small Golden State (7-12) frontcourt that has a losing home record. The Warriors are on a 1-5 ATS run overall, as well as 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Play the Jazz.
SPORTS WAGERS
Memphis +155 over ATLANTA
The Atlanta Hawks are hot. They've won an astounding 16 of 22 games including past three on the road. However, we’re not buying it and that allows us to take advantage of a phony line. When the dust settles, the Hawks are very likely going to be around the .500 mark. When we look at the Hawks’ most recent games, we see that they defeated Detroit, New Orleans and Toronto. The last two quality teams they’ve played, Philly and San Antonio, produced losses by 14 and 22 respectively. Now with a 16-6 record and returning home from a five-game trip, an overvalued Atlanta side will play a team that they rarely see and one that the Hawks know have dropped four of last five. One could not blame the Hawks for looking past this to their upcoming game with the Sixers. Memphis is coming off a nice win over Denver that snapped a four-game losing streak. Prior to that, the Grizz had reeled off seven in a row. They're also 3-0 in their past three games against the East. Atlanta is ripe to be taken here. Play: Memphis +155 (Risking 2 units).
NEW YORK +145 over Chicago
This is the Knicks’ second game since Saturday night. They played Tuesday against Detroit and barely broke a sweat in an easy 27-point win. The Bulls played last night in Philly and lost by 16. They also played Sunday and Monday making this their fourth game in five nights and sixth in nine nights. Regardless of anything else, such scheduling heavily favors the Knicks and that alone makes them worth a wager here. It sure doesn't hurt that Carmelo Anthony is back and has that one game against Detroit under his belt. Incidentally, he scored a modest 25. The Knicks have many flaws, mainly on defense, but this isn't about that. This is a big ticket game in New York and one they'll take very seriously. That up tempo style the Knicks play should bode well here against what should be an exhausted Bulls team minus two key bodies (Hamilton and Deng). This one sets up well for the straight up win and the money line call. Play: New York +145 (Risking 2 units).
Andrew Lange
Eastern Kentucky at Eastern Illinois
Recommendation: Under 127.5
Not sure why this total is getting bet up as both Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky prefer to play at a slow pace and aren't particularly sharp when it comes to shooting the basketball. In conference play, EIU is averaging an awful 0.91 points per possession. EKU is better though the Colonels average about 63 possessions per game. Both meetings last year were lined in the low 120's and went under. And perhaps one of the strongest trends – unknown to most bettors – is that Eastern Illinois has gone under the total in 49 of its last 62 league games. Also, there is absolutely no reason why EIU should be favored by as high as -3 in this contest. Play accordingly.
David Banks
Bulls / Knicks Under
One of the most storied Eastern Conference rivalries around is set to write another chapter in the first half of TNT’s doubleheader on Thursday night when Derrick Rose and his Chicago Bulls invade Madison Square Garden to battle Carmelo Anthony and the New York Knicks; tune to TNT for the opening tip at 8:00 ET.
Though Chicago currently sits atop the Central Division standings by 2.5-games over the Indiana Pacers and possesses the conference’s top overall record, it’s been forced to deal with injuries to key players over the course of the last couple weeks. Derrick Rose has since returned to the starting line-up but is still battling his turf toe injury, while veteran Richard Hamilton is once again nursing his nagging groin injury. Though it’s believed Luol Deng will return to action for this one, he’s missed Chicago’s last six games with a torn ligament in his left hand and will no doubt be rusty if he gives it a go. Still, the rest of the crew has gotten the job done leading the Bulls to a road win and cover at Washington a night after falling to the Heat in their epic showdown last Sunday. As long as Coach Thibodeau’s defense continues to allow 87.4 PPG (#2) or less, it’s gonna be awfully hard for the weaker teams in the league to overcome that. Chicago’s 9-4 SU & ATS away from the Windy City to date.
And then there are the New York Knickerbockers… A team many expected to compete with the Boston Celtics for the Atlantic Division title this season. That prognostication looks horrendous right now with NY sitting in third place seven-games in back of the surprising Philadelphia 76ers. The team did go out and take it to the Detroit Pistons their last time out winning 113-86 as nine-point home chalk, but a win over a team that’s won just four overall games hardly makes one confident that NY has turned it around. After pounding Charlotte last Tuesday, NY then went on to drop each of its next three games to Cleveland, Miami, and Houston by an average of 11 points per game. As it is, the Knicks check in 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their L/10 games and 4-6 SU & 2-8 ATS in front of their hometown fans.
New York took two of three from Chicago last season, but split both of the games they hosted SU & ATS; the ‘under’ is 7-1 the L/8 times these squads went at it in the Big Apple. The Bulls are 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS when playing on no rest this season (@PHI Wed night), and check in a money-making 9-4 ATS versus the L/13 sub .500 teams they’ve faced. New York’s failed to cover or win each of the L/5 times it was dogged by four-points or less, and has gone a pathetic 4-11 ATS in its L/15 match-ups with Central Division opposition.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Butler -10.5
With back-to-back losses lighting a fire under the reigning national runner-ups, look for Butler to run wild on Wright State tonight. The Bulldogs have won 9 of the last 10 in this series with those 9 wins coming by an average of 11.3 points. 5 of the last 8 wins have come by 12 points or more. The Bulldogs are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while the Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll bet Butler.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Colorado -2.5
Off a disappointing performance at UCLA Saturday, expect Colorado to bounce back strong at home where it is 11-1 on the season.
The Buffaloes have been dominant on their home floor, winning by an average of 15.0 points. They beat Utah by 40, Washington by 18, Washington State by 11 and Arizona State by 15. Oregon State lost to Washington by 15, Washington State by 5 and Arizona State by 10.
The Beavers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less.
The Buffaloes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games. We'll lay the small number with Colorado at home.
Teddy Covers
Denver @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: Denver
My clients and I have made good money supporting Denver through the first six weeks of the NBA season, and the Nuggets remain an undervalued commodity as they travel to LA for a ‘quick turnaround’ revenge meeting tonight. We’re catching George Karl’s squad in a real moneymaking situation – off a poorly played loss, as they blew a double digit fourth quarter lead against Memphis on Tuesday, followed by another blown lead in overtime. That loss came on the heels of another blown fourth quarter lead at home against the Clips, a game where Chauncey Billups lived up to his ‘Mr. Big Shot’ moniker, on fire from three point range down the stretch.
The Nuggets haven’t lost three in a row all year, and I don’t expect that to change following tonight’s game. Coach George Karl: “I actually think our mental attitude on the road court has been better-focused than at home.” Forward Al Harrington: “No. 1, we've got to throw the first punch pretty much. We can't really sit back, we can't settle into a game. We've got to come out, guns blazing.” And Karl his full roster at his disposal this evening after some disjointed rotations in recent weeks, with starters Lawson, Nene, Arron Afflalo and Timofey Mozgov all missing time.
That depth gives the Nuggets a huge edge here against a Clippers team coming off an exhausting two point road win in altitude at Utah last night; their fourth consecutive victory that leaves them a tad bit ‘fat and happy’ here. Not only is this the second night of back-2-backs for Vinny Del Negro’s squad, it’s also their fourth game in five nights. The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS against unrested foes this year – their deep bench gives them a huge edge in these games, as they look to push the pace throughout and wear their opponents down. And after blowing fourth quarter leads in each of their last two games, look for the requisite level of fourth quarter defensive intensity to carry Denver to their ‘revenge’ win against the Clippers tonight. Take Denver.
NHL Predictions
Carolina Hurricanes +1.5 -120
Believe it or not, the Hurricanes who have just 18 wins on the season are a perfect 3-0 against the Bruins this season. Carolina has beaten Boston 4-2 and 3-2 at home and 4-1 in Boston back in October. The Hurricanes are coming off a 5-2 loss in New York on Tuesday, but are 4-2-2 in their last 8 games. The Bruins enter tonight off a come from behind 4-3 win against Ottawa, and are 4-3-1 in their last 8 games. The Hurricanes will need Cam Ward to play like he has been lately if they want to pull off another victory against the Bruins. Ward has allowed more than 2 goals against just once in his last 10 starts. In the Hurricanes last 12 games they have either won the game or lost by just one goal in 10 of the 12. In the Bruins last 11 games they have only won by 2 or more goals twice. Right now the Bruins aren't playing good enough hockey to be this big of favorites, and the Hurricanes are playing better as of late. Already beating the Bruins three times this season I like the value here getting a goal on the puck line. Take Carolina to keep it tight.
Edmonton Oilers +155
The Chicago Blackhawks are coming off a 3-2 overtime loss in Vancouver on Tuesday night, which makes them losers of three straight games. Both other losses came against the Predators. The Blackhawks are 29-15-9 on the season, but just 10-9-3 on the road. Chicago has lost 5 straight road games coming into tonight. Edmonton is just 19-26-5 on the season, but a respectable 13-8-3 on home ice. The Oilers beat Colorado at home Tuesday night 3-2, and have gotten points in three straight games (winning two of those). Devan Dubnyk has allowed just 5 goals against in his last 3 games where he faced 113 shots against (.965 SV%). These two teams have met three times this season, with Edmonton wining two of the three. The Blackhawks won 6-3 at home back in November, but the Oilers came right back with a 9-2 home win just 6 days later. In the third meeting the Oilers upset Chicago in Chicago on January 2nd by a score of 4-3. Dubnyk was in net for the 4-3 victory in Chicago. Note that the Oilers are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a home underdog. The Oilers have proven they can beat the Blackhawks this season, and Dubnyk has the ability to steal games. Edmonton has been good all season at home, and I like the value we are getting on them tonight.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
San Diego +19.5 over ST MARY'S: Talk about your classic sandwich spot. The Gaels come in fresh off a HUGE road win over BYU, while waiting on deck is a game vs Gonzaga. The Gaels do have a week before that game, but the Zags must still be on their minds. St Mary's did struggle with this team back in January as they won by just 6 points and San Diego did lose by just 17 to Gonzaga, while pulling outright upset wins on the road over Portland and Santa Clara. They did get blown out in their two games vs BYU this year, but each of their other conference losses have been by 17 points or less. The Dog is 17-5 ATS in this series and the Gaels haven't won by more than 15 points in each of their last 5 wins in the series. San Diego is not having a great year as they are 3-6 in the WCC, but have been outscored by just 6.9 ppg in those games, while St Mary's is 10-0 in the WCC, but have outscored those teams by just 14.6 ppg. We also note that the Gaels my not take this team all to seriosly after the big win at BYU and after seeing what the Cougars did to this team in their 2 games vs them. I expect the Toreo's to keep this one around 14 points vs a team that is in letdown mode and just may have other things on their minds with the Zags up next.
4 UNIT PLAY
Iona/ Canisius Under 148.5: Iona home games have averaged slightly over 160 points, but most of that was done before conference games started as their last 4 conference home games have averaged just 145 ppg and only 1 of them put up more than tonight's total. Iona has averaged 85.7 ppg at home, but in their last 4 home games that number has dropped to 77.5 ppg. Canisius has allowed 80.9 ppg on the road this year, but in conference road games that number has gone down a bit to just 75.8 ppg, while in their last 5 overall they have allowed 77.2 ppg. The Gaels will get their points, but I just don't see Canisuis scoring enough to put this game over the total. The Goden Griffins have averaged 68.2 ppg on the road, but in conference road games that number dips to just 60.5 ppg, while in their last 5 overall they have averaged just 59.8 ppg on 35.8% shooting, plus going a step further we see that Canisius has averaged just 59.9 ppg on 37.7% shooting in MAAC games this year. These teams met back in December when Iona was involved uin many high scoring games and the teams just put up 126 points in that one. The Gaels seem to play it a bit lower scoring in their MAAC games and that's what Im expecting here as well.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Murray State/ SEMO Under 140: Murray State can score for sure, but they are not a run and gun team, plus their defense has really kept their games from being very high scoring. The Racers have averaged 75.9 ppg in conference play, but they have allowed just 60.9 ppg in those games, giving their conference games an average of 136.8 ppg. At home this year Murray state games have averaged 136.1 ppg, with them putting up 75.6 ppg, while allowing just 60.5 ppg. SEMO has averaged 71 ppg in conference play, but they have also played good defense in the conference as they have allowed just 63.6 ppg in those games, including just 56.5 ppg in their last 2 games. Both teams have played good defense in the OVC, which has made their conference games lower scoring than both teams were used to earlier in the year. This is an important conference game for both so I look for both teams to be a bit tight and rely on their defenses to win this one. This game should be played in the lower 130's with neither team hitting 70 points.
Pepperdine/ Loyola Cal over 125.5: I really missed the boat on this one as it opened up mat 122, but I still feel its a good play as I expect 130+ here. Earlier in the year these teams played a game that put up 126 points, while in the last 5 prior to this year not one of those games put up less than 137 points. Pepperdine has had some problems scoring as of late as they have averaged just 60.8 ppg in their last 5 games and they have scored just 54.8 ppg on the road, but they are not playing a great defensive team tonight. The Lions come in having allowed 67.0 ppg overall and 67.8 ppg at home and that should help a struggling Pepperdine offense to hit at least 62 or 63 in this one. Now over to Loyola on offense. The Lions come in averaging 89.9 ppg in conference play and 66.1 ppg at home and they will be taking on a Pepperdine team that has allowed 67.2 ppg in their WCC games including 68.7 ppg in their last 5 games. I don't see how they don't hit 66 points in this one, so if Pepperdine was held to just 60 points then we would still get the Over. I will call for this game to hit 130+ though.
UCLA +3 over WASHINGTON: Gotta feel that the Bruins are really playing well right now after a blowout win vs a very good Colorado team. The Bruins have lost the last 3 in the series so you can bet they are looking for a bit of payback here. UCLA has struggled in PAC-12 road games, going just 1-4, but the have been competitive in 3 of the 4 losses as 1 was by one points (Stanford), another by 3 points (OSU) and anther by just 7 points (Oregon), so they have shown they can play with a team like Washington. While UCLA was blowing out their last 2 opponents, the Huskies winning two games in the desert that came down to the wire in both. Im expecting that to take a bit out of this team in this one. Washington has had a good year, but they still have had some rough spots getting blown out at Colorado and only winning at home by 8 points to a non-lined Seattle team. The Huskies can score some points, but UCLA have been playing better defense right now and they shold come up with enough stops to get the win here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Duke -4.5 over VIRGINIA TECH: Duke did not play well vs St John's in their last game and I expect them to be ready for this important ACC matchup. Duke should get back on track with ease vs a Tech team that has just 1 win in their last 7 games.
Northwestern/ Nebraska Over 126.5: Who would have thought this Nebraska team could, but they do come in having put up 70+ points in 3 of their last 5 games, with the two that they didn't do it vs being OSU and Wisconsin. Two of the best defensive teams in the nation. We Northwestern in not a great defensive team as they come in allowing 66.7 ppg overall and 70 ppg in their last 5 games, which includes allowing a pathetic Wisconsin offense to put up 77 points on them. The Cats have allowed 45.7% shooting overall and 35.9% from long range during their last 5 games. The Cats have had some problems scoring of late, but they have still averaged 68.6 ppg at home on the year and will be taking on a Nebraska team that seems to have broken down of last as they have allowed 73.7 ppg in their last 3 games. I look for both teams to push the tempo a bit in this one as this game eclipses 130+ points.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Oral Roberts/ South Dakota State Over 149: ORAL ROBERTS is 10-3 OVER (+6.7 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. , while S DAKOTA ST is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
Nebraska +6.5 over NORTHWESTERN: Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points if they have an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less and are playing against a horrible offensive team (<=63 PPG) after 15+ games. This play is 49-20 over the last 5 seasons.
OC Dooley
Virginia Tech +5
The following may come as a shock but dating back to the 2003 campaign Virginia Tech actually has the fourth-best winning percentage against mighty Duke, among other Atlantic Coast Conference squads. It was one year ago when Duke (-4’) traveled to Virginia Tech and suffered a straight-up defeat and it is interesting to note that the money-line for this particular clash is almost identical even though the host Hokies are currently mired in a 1-6 slide. One of the reasons why Virginia Tech was so successful last year at home is due to their defense on the perimeter as they forced Duke to MISS 16-of-20 attempts from behind the arc. Duke comes into tonight’s game leading the Atlantic Coast conference in three-point accuracy, but their #1 shooter Seth Curry has actually missed 21 of his most recent 26 attempts from long range. In last year’s loss at Virginia Tech, Curry made a grand total of ZERO field goal attempts from the field. The following statistic may come as a bit of a shock but in the past two years Duke is a horrible 2-10 ATS after leading the previous game by at least a 15-point margin at halftime. Tonight is by far the biggest conference game of the season for Virginia Tech it was has been a lost season due to a very youthful roster. The Virginia Tech football team just had a very successful national signing day, and the basketball program could sure use a similar boost