Patrick Webb
Penn State vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska -5
Nebraska has two big trends going for them in this game- they are 9-1 in their last 10 games ATS and 9-2 ATS at home. The Huskers are playing very well winning 5 of 6 and this number may be slightly off due to an outlier effecting their 5 game stats in a 29 point loss to Michigan.
Penn State has the back-court to stay in this game, but has failed to cover in four of the five meetings between the two clubs since Nebraska entered the Big Ten. Penn State has lost 3 of 4 heading into this game (1-3 ATS over that stretch) and their offensive performance has a four point swing in points per game on the road compared to their overall stats.
At home Nebraska has advantages in eFG%, OREB% and TO% in this match up and given the momentum they have built under coach Tim Miles they should run away with this game.
Alex Smart
Cal-Irvine vs. Hawaii
Play: Hawaii -3
This contest between the Anteaters and the Warriors will be a rematch of the Jan. 25 thriller in Irvine that Hawaii won in OT by an, 90-86 count. To be honest Hawaii has really improved as a team as the season has progressed and have shown an ability to win on the mainland which makes them all that more dangerous in the paradise islands. The Bows have won four straight on the road, and four of their last five games overall and seven of its last nine, and are in top form. UH is also 12-4 at home, and have cashed 8 of their L/11 vs a side with an above .600 win percentage on the road , like UC Irvine possesses. Meanwhile the Anteaters have failed to cover 5 of their L/7 overall and are 0-5 ATS in their L/5 vs a side like Hawaii with an above .500 record.
UH proved they matchup well against Irvine in their recent meeting and here on their own floor will once again be formidable foes for a team that is dealing with jet lag and that might also have trouble fully concentrating in this vacation like atmosphere.
EZWINNERS
North Carolina Tar Heels +1 1st Half
This game is big for both teams, but it is huge for North Carolina. The Tar Heels have dug themselves out of an 0-3 start in ACC play by beating up on the bottom feeders, but to their credit UNC is playing much better right not. Duke continues to win games but does not always look good doing so. I like the Heels to get off to the good start in this game and I'm playing them for the first half only. Whether or not they hold on for the entire game in any question.
Carlos Salazar
Miami Heat at Oklahoma City
Play: Miami Heat +3.5
This game will most likely be a preview of this year's NBA Finals and Carlos sees the Heat not only covering the 3.5 but winning this one outright. Look for a motivated Heat team to show the Thunder they are still the champs.
DAVE COKIN
CAL IRVINE AT HAWAII
PLAY: CAL IRVINE +3
There’s a big battle in the Big West tonight as UC-Irvine travels to the islands for a showdown with Hawaii. If the rematch is anything like the first meeting between these two teams, everyone viewing had better fasten their seat belts.
Hawaii won the initial hookup in overtime by a 90-86 tally. How it got to that point was nuts. Irvine appeared to have the game cinched in regulation, in spite of some awful second half foul shooting that enabled Hawaii to stay in the game. But the Anteaters looked to be safe late. Unfortunately, they did not foul late with a three-point lead and a Hawaii bomb with one tick remaining sent the game to OT. Irvine managed to blow another lead in the extra session, and Hawaii ran off the game’s final seven points to score the key road win.
I would think no pep talks will be needed to fire up the Anteaters for the return match. They know they blew the first game, and with the Big West race pretty tight at the top, this is a critical game for Irvine. Hawaii is obviously not likely to be a pushover, as the Rainbow Warriors are tough at home and they’re also on a modest 3-0 run after a very productive road trip.
Aside from the wild finish in the first game between these two, there was one player line that I found shocking. Isaac Fotu is a very good player for Hawaii. The big sophomore has become the true go-to guy for the ‘Bows. But his line vs. Irvine in that first game was insane. Fotu went 13-16 from the field in that contest, which is remarkable considering Irvine owns the best defensive two-point FG% in the country.
There’s little doubt in my mind that this should be one of the best games on the Thursday night slate. It’s very meaningful as far as the league race is concerned. I see it as strength vs. strength in terms of the actual matchup.
I’m keying on the revenge factor as the tipping point tonight. This is the type of second meeting I like, where one team has major motivation due to what happened in the first meeting. I don’t think there’s any question that Irvine approaches this game with great intensity.
I am also convinced that the objective tonight for the Anteaters will first and foremost making sure Fotu doesn’t go off on them again. If they can accomplish that goal, this should be a win for the visitors. Tough game for sure, but this game fits for me on a few different levels, so UC-Irvine plus the small spot is the choice.
Bryan Power
Denver vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Under
The Nuggets have lost four in a row on the road - by an average of 27.5 points per game. Milwaukee has yet to win back to back games all season. Something will have to give Thursday night at the Bradley Center and while I'm not sure which side it will be, I do feel that the Under is a good bet in this matchup...
Milwaukee remains on a pace to be one of the lowest scoring teams over an 82-game season in league history. They average only 92.5 PPG and are actually a point worse here at home. I did have them Tuesday night as they came out of the All-Star Break to defeat Orlando 104-100, but that was only one of three Bucks home games this season to see both they and their opponents top 100 points in regulation! After six of their previous nine wins, Milwaukee has been held to 90 points or fewer their next time out. They are 6-1 Under this season off a SU dog win.
Denver has averaged only 95.2 PPG during its current five game losing streak. They are off a 112-107 home loss in overtime Tuesday, so that point total is a little misleading. They'd scored 90 points or fewer in three of their previous four games. Defense has been a major reason for the Nuggets decline, but for the reasons outlined above, stopping Milwaukee shouldn't prove to be too difficult. At the same time, Denver still doesn't have PG Ty Lawson, who is their floor general. I see an ugly, low-scoring game between two bad teams here.
Doug Upstone
Pepperdine vs. Loyola Marymount
Play: Pepperdine +1
Pepperdine is an average team, at best, but I like their fight and their knack to overachieve in what some would call a down year. Pepperdine won earlier this month at home by 11 and there is no reason to think they can't sweep this series tonight with a win in LA. Loyola Maymount is a bit banged up as well. Take Pepperdine plus 1.
Bill Biles
BYU -1½
Gonzaga beat BYU earlier in the year by 15 and yet the line for this game has BYU as the favorite. I believe that Vegas knows something that we don't in this one, and BYU wins this game at home.
LT Profits
Portland vs San Diego
Pick : San Diego -2.5
The Portland Pilots are 15-11 overall and they are fifth in the WCC with a 7-7 conference mark, while the San Diego Toreros just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 70-55 road win at Pacific Saturday to even their record at 14-14, and they are eighth in the conference at just 5-10. However, Portland leading scorer Kevin Bailey could miss his third straight game here with a calf injury, and even with Bailey, the Pilots did lose at home to these Toreros 65-63 the first time these clubs met this year, making San Diego 4-1 straight up in the last five head-to-head meetings. Also the Toreros could make some headway with three-point shooting here at home, as they are 33rd in the whole country beyond the arc at 38.4 percent while Portland is 263rd in three-point defense. San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.
Chase Diamond
Connecticut vs. Temple
Play: Temple +9½
This game features the 20-5 UCONN at 7-17 Temple. Temple is off the huge upset win over SMU usually we stay away from teams off big wins but in this case I think Temple figured out who they could be and will show that again tonight versus another top team in UCONN. Were looking at 90% of bets going on the Huskies here which is a huge number as they public is set to be buried tonight. Take Temple plus the points.
Ian Cameron
Gonzaga at BYU
Play:Over 150.5
"All offense, no defense" has been BYU’s mantra from much of the season. The Cougars are 7-3 O/U in their last 10 games. Thirteen of BYU's last 16 games have all reached 152 or more and I expect this one to do the same. Helping that trend is BYU’s defense which has allowed 78 ppg and 1.01 PPP. Gonzaga is not known to be a fast paced team (65 possessions per game) but still managed to score 84 points and shoot 57.4% from the floor in their previous meeting against the Cougars. BYU played a grinder of a game last time out against St. Mary’s in a rare low scoring 60-57 win, but at back at home, I expect a return to form.
Gonzaga’s offense has been dialed in of late against WCC foes (78.8 L4) – a product of everyone being healthy. The Zags have also been strong defensively but BYU is a different animal of its home court; 49.2% FGs, 1.16 PPP, and nearly 89 ppg. Tyler Haws, Kyle Collinsworth, Matt Carlino and Eric Mika all average double figures which gives them a wealth of balance. BYU still managed to hit 44.8% of their shots in Spokane but a dreadful 2-for-11 (18.2%) from three doomed them. I expect those numbers to improve quite a bit in tonight’s rematch.
This total is fairly high in the low 150’s but it is warranted and I think we will see both teams come through with good offensive efforts.
Dave Mathews
Miami at Oklahoma City
Play: Oklahoma City -3
Russell Westbrook is back for Oklahoma City. He might be limited minutes-wise, but that's still a big plus for the Thunder. Oklahoma City won the first meeting on Jan. 29, 112-95 without Westbrook. The Thunder will abuse the Heat on the boards who are close to the bottom of the league in rebounding margin at 3.9. This is more than Kevin Durant against LeBron James. The Thunder's supporting cast is now better than the Heat's, especially with Dwyane Wade's deterioration as a player.
John Ryan
Duke at North Carolina
Play: North Carolina
The simulator shows a high probability that North Carolina will win this game. These two storied rivals had to wait a week to play each other as sever weather conditions cancelled last week's scheduled game to tonight. Rebounding will the difference tonight and UNC has a massive edge in that department. UNC ranks 7th in the nation getting 41.2 rebounds per game and there is no doubt in my mind that they will minimize Duke's multi-shot possessions with strong defensive rebounding. UNC may give up more points per game than Duke, but I believe their overall defense is better and this reflects their quickness in rotation and filling passing lanes. UNC ranks 28th posting a strong 0.793 assist-to-turnover ratio. The simulator (SIM) projects that UNC will shoot 47 to 53% from the field, will score 75 to 80 points, and will attempt 19 to 24 free throws. In past games, Duke is just 20-41 ATS (-25.1 Units) in road games when their opponents make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game since 1997; 7-30 ATS (-26.0 Units) in road games when they allow 75 to 80 points in a game since 1997. UNC is a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they attempt 19 to 24 free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take North Carolina.
Sam Martin
Washington St. at Oregon St.
Prediction: Washington St.
You always have to first look at the home team in the Pac 12, as for whatever reason home court advantage seems to be much stronger in this conference (in terms of both SU and ATS) than others. That being said, we are going to take the generous points with the visiting Cougars tonight.
Oregon State will likely win this game outright, and we would honestly be surprised if Washington State was able to pull the outright victory, but we don't think this game will be decided by a blowout winning margin. Not only have the Beavers lost three straight, but they also didn't look all that great in wins against both UCLA (won by four points) along with a one-point win (as an 8.5-point favorite) vs. a bad USC team. Too many points for OSU to cover, and while they win outright it's well within this big number.
Tony George
Duke vs. North Carolina
Play: Duke -1½
The Tar Heels are making a run and finding chemistry and Roy Williams has them playing the best ball of the season on a 7 game win streak. Duke is riding a 4 game win streak after a brutal OT loss to Syracuse but has the better team here. Road game is a 20 minute bus ride across town for this one so the homecourt while it will be wild, Duke well knows the scenario tonight.
Amazingly the road team is 22-8 in this series which is unreal considering both have strong homecourt power numbers, and the UNDER is 8-2 the last 10 in this series. Duke swept the series last year and won by 16 points in here their last trip as well, and the Tar heels have double revenge tonight. Catching points in this scenario at home is what oddsmakers are begging you to take. Duke has covered 8 out of 12 spreads on the road while North Carolina has covered home games at 8-7 ATS this year.
At days end the breakdown here is a tough nut to crack. Both teams defense is about even, both have explosive offenses and both teams have awesome head coaches. Duke playing for a #1 overall seed at being ranked 6th in the nation right now and their perimeter game is better, their offense is better, and I feel their bench is better. Laying less than a 3 pointer here against a team they have beaten 7 out of the last 10 times SU, and Duke has covered some numbers recently going 8-01 ATS their last 9 games has me giving a slight lean to the Blue Devils here. ALSO: a lean to the UNDER 151 in this game as well