Jack Jones
Miami Heat +3
The Miami Heat have taken their game to another level pre and post All-Star Break. They have won three straight games coming in, all on the road and all against playoff contenders in Phoenix, Golden State and Dallas.
Lebron James hit a game-winner at the buzzer against Golden State, and he and the Heat are going to want revenge on Kevin Durant and the Thunder after getting embarrassed 95-112 at home in their first meeting of the season on January 29. This is a statement game for James, who is still the best player in the league.
Oklahoma City is getting a lot of love for winning 15 of its last 17 games overall. However, it did not play well in a 107-103 win at the Los Angeles Lakers in the final game before the All-Star Break. Now, Russell Westbrook is expected to return tonight.
While his return is good news for the Thunder, I believe for one game it could have them out of sync. They'll have to adjust the way they have been playing, which isn't necessarily a good thing because they have had a ton of success doing it that way.
Miami is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams that score 103-plus points per game over the last two seasons. The Heat are 18-4 ATS in road games where the total is 200 or more over the last two seasons. Miami is 19-8 ATS revenging a same-season loss over the last two years. Bet the Heat Thursday.
Dave Price
Miami Heat +3
Miami had won six in a row versus the Thunder by an average of 7.8 points before being embarrassed 112-95 at home Jan. 29. I know for a fact that loss is not sitting well with LeBron James and company. The Heat will be out to send a message that they're still the team to beat, and James will be out to show the world that he's still the best player in the NBA, not Kevin Durant, who is being mentioned as the leader in the MVP race by most analysts. Russell Westbrook is listed as probable for tonight's game. While he is one of the best point guards in the NBA, I believe his return momentarily throws a hitch in the giddy-up of Oklahoma City. It will likely take a few games for Durant and him to work out what their dynamic will be. Miami is an outstanding 19-8 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss over the last two seasons, winning these games by an average score of 102.3 to 90.9. The Heat have also been successful ramping up their intensity on the defensive end versus explosive offensive teams. They are 8-0 ATS in road games the last two seasons versus teams averaging 103.0 points per game or more and have won these games by an average of 7.2 points while holding these foes to just 98.9. Take the points.
Bruce Marshall
Memphis at Rutgers
Pick: Memphis
Eddie Jordan's supposedly jazzed-up version of the Princeton offense has been mostly a train wreck for Rutgers (2-7 SU and vs. the line last nine), which has endured countless ferocious beatings in AAC play, including a 48-point shellacking on Sunday at Louisville and a 32-point punishment at the hands of Memphis at FedEx Forum back on Feb. 4. The Scarlet Knights could not keep pace, as the Tigers hit 59% from the floor and connected upon a season-best 12 triples. (Maybe Jordan should spend more time stressing defense?) Off a tough OT loss at UConn, Big Dance -bound Memphis is very motivated to finish fast and reduce its chances of being slotted into a dreaded 8 or 9 seed on Selection Sunday.
SPORTS WAGERS
MILWAUKEE +153 over Denver
The Nuggets came off the break with a game effort at home against Phoenix, losing by just five points but taking the Suns to OT in the process. The Nuggets played hard but they still lost and their losing streak has hit five. The Nuggets are banged up and they don’t have an adequate backup point guard ever since Nate Robinson went down. The Nuggets are in a state of crisis, losing their last four games before the break by a combined 110 points. With a roster worth significantly less than the sum of its parts, it's hard to believe Denver won't be making a deal at the deadline or be very active in the offseason. Denver is in a bad state of mind and its chances of losing on the road are greater than its chances of winning, even against Milwaukee.
Milwaukee is a train wreck also but at least they know they are in rebuild mode. The Bucks had a nice win to open their post All-Star portion of the schedule and one victory does wonders to a teams’ psyche. They were a lot of positives from that victory as well. Brandon Knight was 12-for-12 from the free throw line and had seven assists. Milwaukee scored 22 points off of 15 Orlando turnovers. Caron Butler was 7-for-13 from 3-point range and Milwaukee out-rebounded Orlando 43-37. The Bucks may actually be better without Larry Sanders. Sanders’ is a problem child that caused nothing but disruption and tension since signing a big contract in August. The Bucks looked better without him and had plenty of energy in their win over the Magic. In summarizing, neither one of these teams can be trusted but as a road favorite the Nuggets are fade material right now and that’s the way we’ll play it.
SPORTS WAGERS
Penn State +5 over NEBRASKA
Five weeks ago, Nebraska stood at 0-4 in the Big Ten and 8-8 overall. You may recall what happened next. Ohio State came to Lincoln, ranked No. 17 in the nation and when the final buzzer sounded the Cornhuskers were ahead 68-62. Since then, Nebraska has won five of seven and they’ve also won three in a row capped by Sunday’s stunning upset win in Michigan by nine points. The Huskers are now an even 6-6 in Big Ten play and with four home games still to be played, what was once unthinkable, an above .500 finish in conference, would appear to be very much in reach. With that victory over Michigan and sudden turnaround, the Huskers stock is higher than it’s been all season and that provides us with a nice sell-high opportunity. Not only can we sell high but we get the Huskers in a huge letdown spot as well. This is a Nebraska team that still ranks 339th in the country in assists, 276th in rebounding and 286th in points per game. That’s not exactly the type of squad you want to buy at an inflated price.
Penn State is just 4-9 in the conference and just 13-13 overall. However, the Nittany Lions have many close calls and they also have a couple of nice wins. PSU defeated the Buckeyes also, in Ohio State no less and they are 3-3 over their past six Big-10 games. The Nittany Lions starting five is without question superior to the Huskers starting five. PSU has an edge in almost every key statistical category over Nebraska and they are in a better situational spot as well. The home-court edge may also work in our favor here. Since 2005, home teams are 14,145-14,776 (48.9 percent) against the spread (ATS) in regular season games, which indicates that visitors have an advantage in terms of ATS performance. This does not mean that visitors play better overall or straight up but that lines are potentially shaded further than needed, based on mainstream media and recreational bettors overvaluing home-court advantage. This is as good a spot as any to take advantage of the all the things that make a home-favorite overvalued.
Hollywood Sports
Houston at Golden State
Prediction: Under
Golden State (32-22) appears on TNT tonight after their 101-92 win at Sacramento last night and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Additionally, the Warriors five starters logged in over 167 combined minutes last night -- and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing without rest after their five starters combined to play at least 160 minutes the previous day.
Houston (37-17) has won eight straight after their 134-108 win in Los Angeles against the Lakers last night. The Under is 12-5-2 in the Rockets' last 19 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Under is 5-1-1 in Houston's last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. With both teams taking playing without rest, take the Under.
Sean Higgs
Long Beach State vs. UC-Davis
Play: Long Beach State -6½
We are heading back to Cali tonight to back LONG BEACH STATE on the road. Listen. I really don't like taking road faves in this spot. But LBST has flat-out OWNED UC Davis. 10-0 SU 8-2 ATS last 10 in the series. 6-0 ATS last 6 trips here. They are 7-1 ATS last 8 in Big West play. As much as I would like to take the home pups, LBST should continue its dominance in the series.
Joe Duffy
Duke vs. North Carolina
Play: Duke -1½
One of the qualities that separates the sharps from the squares is that when analyzing how a team plays on the road, it’s travel even more so than raucous that negatively affects the road team.
Obviously travel is not an issue as the distance between the two schools is less than I often go for quality take-out pizza. The road team is 22-8 against the spread in the series, including the Blue Devils 6-1 at UNC.
It’s not that home court is irrelevant it’s just that because of lack of travel, it is about a 1.5 less than normal home court edge and as we preach time and time again, handicapping is about exploiting an edge like that. What Joeybagofdonuts does not realize how big a 1.5 or two-point off line is.
The Blue Devils are 20-2 straight up against unranked opponents this season. Duke has won four of its past five road games. The only loss during that stretch came at No. 2 Syracuse, 91-89, in overtime.
Guess who is peaking at the perfect time? Duke has won nine of its past 10 games with the lone loss during that stretch coming at the hands of now-No. 1 Syracuse, 91-89, in overtime. Duke has beaten seven of those 10 opponents by 15 points or more.
Most importantly, they have covered 8-of-9. Five of those covers were by 11.5 or more indicating the oddsmakers have not caught up to how much the Devils have improved.
True, UNC is on a nice spread run, but since Dec. 5, they only have two double-digit covers, so they have benefitted from some close covers as during that span, they have had four Vegas setbacks of at least 12.5.
Look for the Blue Devils to win one on the road, Tobacco Road that is.
Ray Monohan
Georgetown vs. Seton Hall
Play: Georgetown +2
Neither the Hoyas or Seton Hall are having good season. Georgetown has been playing better of late but the way they got stomped at St. Johns was a head scratcher...it also created this as an opportunity. I love the Hoyas productive veteran backcourt and the fact they will be gunning for some revenge against the Pirates, who have lost 3 in a row and 4 of 5. I think Georgetown can steal this one.
AC Dinero
Middle Tenn St vs. Charlotte
Play: Charlotte +3
MTSU comes in on a 7 game winning streak to take on a Charlotte team that has lost its past 3. 2 evenly matched teams statistically. MTSU just makes a few more plays to win the games in the end. We'll back the home team as we like to take teams who have been shooting poorly in recent games against teams that have been hot, particularly when getting points at home.
Ken Thomson
Michigan St. -5.5
Still Value in this one....I expect line to close at 6 1/2......Sparty has Appling cleared to play.....still without Dawson but should not matter....Izzo would like to get this team playing together now...not in March....look for Payne and Valentine to get the youngster Hammons in foul trouble. The guard depth for State should be the difference. With the Green and White dropping four of their last seven they should be focused. Purdue comes off a nice home rout of Indiana but they will be facing a hungry State team that can't keep making injury excuses for lackadaisical play. Purdue should hang for awhile riding the crowd but Purdue should succumb the way they did versus Ohio State and Wisconsin on their Home Court. State by double digits
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on Memphis minus the points against Rutgers, as the Tigers should steamroll the Scarlet Knights in Jersey.
Memphis (19-6, 8-4 American) closes its brief two-game junket in Piscataway, N.J., after opening its road trip with an 86-81 overtime loss at No. 24 Connecticut. Time to avenge that loss and let loose of all that frustration. This team is fully capable of winning big, as it proceeded that loss with a perfect 3-0 record at home, after posting wins over Rutgers 101-69, No. 23 Gonzaga 60-54, and Central Florida 76-70.
See what stands out there?
That 32-point win over these same Scarlet Knights. And whether or not it was a home game that had anything to do with that, it's still a 32-point win. Even half that tonight covers the number. Memphis comes into tonight's battle having won seven of its last 10 games, and quite frankly, as we reach crunch time and teams are jockeying for conference-tournament seedings, I don't think Memphis is going to be messing around here.
Rutgers (10-16, 4-9), which was picked to finish 10th in the 2013-14 conference preseason coaches poll, comes into this one after dropping three of its last four games. It doesn't have the personnel to keep up with this highly talented Tigers squad, and will slowly drift from this one, as Memphis pulls away for the 14-point win.
3♦ MEMPHIS
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is Temple plus the points at home against Connecticut.
This is just too many for the Huskies to lay on the road tonight.
UConn is off a draining OT win at home over Memphis to make it 3 straight wins, and they did hammer Temple in the first meeting this year, winning 90-66 over the Owls on January 21st.
At 7-17, it has been a tough season for Temple, but the Owls did just spring the upset on Sunday over a ranked SMU team in the City of Brotherly Love, so I can see the emotion of that upset victory carrying over tonight against the ranked Huskies.
Remember, UConn is just 5-5 against the spread on the road this season, and they are being asked to cover near double-digits in this spot tonight.
Temple to give Connecticut a better battle then they did when they lost by 24 points last month in Storrs.
2♦ TEMPLE
Craig Davis
Thursday's free play winner is Oklahoma City.
Tonight, however, the Thunder get the home court advantage after already proving they can beat Miami in their own building without Russell Westbrook just a month ago.
Just when it appeared Miami held a mental advantage over the Thunder, OKC went to South Beach and (without their starting point guard) not only covered the 4 1/2 points... but whipped Miami in every phase of the game and finished with a 112-95 blowout win.
With Russell Westbrook supposedly back in action, it only helps OKCs cause more tonight than if it were just Reggie Jackson running the point.
Here's a great chance for the Thunder to get the season sweep and gain some confidence going forward.
Thunder by 9 tonight.
5♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Scott Delaney
My free winner for tonight is on Niagara, as I like the Purple Eagles to roast Fairfield in MAAC action. Two of the worst teams in the conference, but Fairfield is one of the worst teams in the nation.
This is the final homestand for Niagara, which returns home looking to snap its six-game skid. Ironically, the Purple Eagles ended a four-game losing streak earlier this season, by edging Fairfield, 67-63, on Jan. 16. With this one at home, and Niagara also coming off a very tough stretch against some of the conference's better teams, it should prevail in a big way.
The Eagles really do have some talent on this team, led by Antoine Mason, who moved into fifth all-time at Niagara, in career scoring after he scored a game-high 33 points versus Manhattan. Mason is 19 points away from moving into fourth place. Mason is second in the nation with 25.6 points per game. He has 31 straight games in double figures.
Marvin Jordan is 28 3-pointers away from tying Tyrone Lewis ('10) for first in career 3-pointers at Niagara (290), Wesley Myers is averaging 8.6 points per game and 4.5 rebounds in eight starts this season and Marcus Ware is contributing with an average of 13.1 points per game and 5.9 rebounds per game over the team's last seven games.
I can't even argue a significant superlative for Fairfield, it's just that sad of a basketball team.
1♦ NIAGARA