Brad Wilton
Memphis seeking their 20th win of the campaign tonight as they play at Rutgers, and not only will they get that 20th win, but they will get it convincingly.
The Tigers are off a tough overtime loss at Connecticut, but they have been able to cover 7 of their last 8 road games this year.
Memphis is also the owner of a 101-69 shellacking of Rutgers back on February 4th when the Scarlet Knights made the visit to Tennessee.
Rutgers is on a 2-7 dip both straight up and against the spread, and they were just smashed by 48 points over the weekend in a loss at Louisville.
While it won't be that bad tonight, I still see the Knights losing this one by double-digits.
Take the Tigers to dish out another loss at the Scarlet Knights expense.
4♦ MEMPHIS
River City Sharps
UConn -9.5
Probably the best thing that could have happened (at least for this selection) is when Temple upset SMU at home on Sunday. That is probably keeping this line down, which we always like to see when we are siding with a bigger road favorite. Previous to that game, Temple was blown out in each of their last two home games to Louisville and Villanova. The teams that seem to give Temple the most problems are ones that have exceptionally good guards that can get to the rim. For example, Russ Smith and Chris Jones for Louisville are ultra quick guards that Temple simply couldn't keep up with. Tonight, Temple will face similarly skilled guards with Napier and Boatright. UConn has won three of four games on the road, while the Owls are just 3-8 at home this season. Temple has really struggled defensively, even more so at home where the Owls are giving up nearly 80 ppg. That won't fly against a very good Huskie offense tht can beat you from the perimter as well as in the paint. bad matchup here for the Owls and we're going to lay the points with UConn on the road.
Bruce Marshall
UConn at Temple
Play: UConn -9
Suffering Temple at least proved it still had a pulse in Sunday's home upset of stampeding SMU. But consider that a warning sign for UConn bunch that will now be on alert against a squad it already dominated by a 90-66 count at home on Jan. 21, when F DeAndre Daniels scored a career-high 31. The upset result vs. Larry Brown's Mustangs notwithstanding, this is still Fran Dunphy's worst Owl edition, just 7-17 SU and having dropped 13 of 14 vs. the number prior to that surprise vs. the Mustangs.
Primetime Insiders
Tulsa -3
Tulsa takes the floor against Florida Atlantic tonight in Boca Raton. Tulsa is sitting at 8-3 in Conference USA only a game back of a three way tie for 1st place between Louisiana Tech, UTEP, and Middle Tennessee State. On the other hand Florida Atlantic sits at 5-6 in conference play. Tulsa is winners of 3 straight while Florida Atlantic lost its last outing against UTSA.
Tulsa is on the small side when it comes to size but don't tell them that as they crash the glass and get an offensive rebound on 33% of their possessions. This is going to be an issue for Florida Atlantic as they rank near dead last in conference play at defending second change buckets. Tulsa also does an excellent job at taking care of the ball by limiting their turnovers. FAU has really struggled on the defensive end in conference play and this is going to be an issue against Tulsa who really tries to push the tempo and should be able to get many good looks against FAU.
Similar to Tulsa, FAU does an excellent job at not turning the ball over but that is the extent of their strengths on the offensive side of the ball. This is going to be an issue against the 2nd best defensive in the conference in Tulsa. Tulsa is able to limit amounts from getting good looks and clean up the defensive glass turning rebounds into baskets very quickly by stretching the floor.
Along with a distinct advantage on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, Tulsa also a much deeper team which is going to be an advantage for Tulsa with their very quick pace.
Louisiana Tech -9
We are going to turn to the conference USA again for another 3* play between Louisiana Tech and East Carolina in Greenville tonight. LT is sitting at the top of the conference USA standings with ECU near the bottom. LT is not only fighting for the conference title but also for a potential bubble bid.
LT is the top offensive in the conference and has been dominate all year. They play at a blistering pace that should really open this game up in favor of LT. LT has excellent guard play which results in very few turnovers and many easy baskets by way of assists. The man assist man and leader of the LT attack is Kenneth Smith who might be the best point guard no one knows. He is a pure magician with the ball in his hand and everyone should get a chance to watch him. If LT is not making their shots they do an excellent job on the offensive glass getting a rebound on a third of their possessions. Not only with LT be able to score at will against a weak ECU defense they should be able to dominate the glass against the worst rebounding team in the conference.
Similar to the defensive end, ECU also struggles on the offensive end ranking near last in conference play in all categories. ECU is very dependent on the 3 and if they are not making it they can get blown out by anyone. They shoot 3s on almost half of their possessions and one would think if they are playing at home they could get hot and make this a close game but think again. LT has the best defensive in the conference and it is not close. They do an excellent job at turning teams over and limiting the amount of second chance looks but if there is one strength of the LT defense it is at defending the 3 point shot. They lead the conference and allow only 24% from downtown.
Even though ECU can get hot from downtown going up against LT is another story. This game should not be close from the word go and even if ECU gets hot from 3 point land it will be short lived. LT should have no problem scoring against the worst defense in the league and should be able to get to 80 easily. If LT gets to 80 this game is a lock as ECU will not be able to score close to 70 against the fierce LT defense
Memphis -8
Memphis with its quick pace and athleticism should be able to hand the slumping Rutgers squad. Memphis should be able to own the offensive glass and get many clean looks against the poor defensive of Rutgers. Memphis should be able to turn Rutgers over and limit the open looks with their top 45 defense.
UTEP -6
This matchup comes all down to size and the amount of second chance looks UTEP should get against the undersized Tulane squad. Tulane is very dependent on the 3 point shot and UTEP limits opponents to just 30% from downtown which should be Tulane will have difficulty getting to 60 points.
Long Beach State -6.5
Long Beach State takes on the worst defensive in the conference in UC Davis. The last time these squads played Long Beach State almost got to 100 and should get close in this contest as well. Long Beach State should be able to own the glass with Dan Jennings and get many good looks inside against the weak front court of UC Davis. UC Davis shoots a lot of threes and connects on 38% of them which could keep them in the game but Long Beach State is no pushover on the defensive end and should be able to turn UC Davis over quite a bit and limit the second chance points.
Western Carolina PK
Western Carolina offensive should be able to dominate the glass with King and Brown to get second chance looks against a very poor Appalachian State defensive. App State is going to have difficulty scoring against Western Carolina due to their very strong man to man defense. WCU turns teams over at a very high rate along with limit the amount of open looks with the 3rd best defense in the Southern Conference.
Quinnipiac +7
Quinnipiac is all about rebounding ranking #2 in the nation in offensive rebounding and #20 in the nation at defensive rebounding. This should be a high scoring game as Canisius doesn't play that much defensive and Quinnipiac can score with anybody. The same can be said on the other side of the ball as Canisius can score at will with Quinnipiac not all that successful on the defensive end. Quinnipiac does defend the 3 well which could keep this game close as Canisius is prone to shoot a bunch of threes.
Joe Gavazzi
UTEP -6.5
It has been yet another surprisingly solid season for 4th year HC Conroy (The Citadel), who has lifted the Green Wave fortunes from 8 wins (prior to his hire) to 13, 15, and 20 win seasons L3Y. This year, the Wave is 14-12 SU, including 6-5 SU in league play. Though these two sets of numbers have flattened out a bit this year, under Conroy, Tulane is just 19-33 ATS as underdog and 23-39 ATS in conference play. In a pair of meetings last year against UTEP, Tulane lost by 12 and 9 points. Little has changed in the relative pecking order between these two in CUSA play. In those two defeats last year, Tulane averaged 53.5 PPG. Scoring will be a problem again this evening against the defense of veteran UTEP HC Floyd. His switching defenses, including an amoeba type of zone, are the perfect solution to the perimeter power of Tulane. This year, his Miners allow just 64/38/29, have a positive rebound margin and a positive assist/TO margin. In short, they are an excellent fundamental team. The last time UTEP went on the road, we cashed a pair of Top Play winners in the role of road favorite with their victories over E. Carolina (58-47) and ODU (63-49). Tied at the top of the league at 9-2 SU (with LA Tech and MTSU) expect no let up from the Miners tonight.
Harry Bondi
BYU (-3) over Gonzaga
Mormons got pounded by Gonzaga 84-69. They have long memories in Provo and they remember the Zags rubbing it in late in that game. There also is no way Gonzaga can again shoot 66% for the game like they did in the first game. BYU has won five of its last six games and are a perfect 7-0 at home in conference play this year. Revenge!
Dr. Bob
Opinion – Eastern Michigan (-4½) over NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Eastern Michigan is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, ranking 11th in compensated defensive efficiency and that will make it tough for very bad Northern Illinois offense, which ranks 338th in compensated offensive efficiency, to score points. Eastern Michigan applies to a 93-35-3 ATS situation that is based on their good defense while Northern Illinois applies to a negative 85-187-3 ATS situation. Eastern Michigan isn’t going to light up the scoreboard either, as the Eagles struggle offensively while the Huskies are a good defensive team, and my ratings only favor Eastern Michigan by 4 points in this game. I’m not going to give up the line value to make the EMU a Best Bet but I’ll still lean with the Eagles at -5 or less and I’d take Eastern Michigan in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
Opinion - Texas San Antonio (+21½) over SOUTHERN MISS
Texas San Antonio applies to a very good 47-6 ATS subset of a 122-45-2 ATS big road underdog situation that is a combination of their 66-56 upset win over Florida Atlantic and the Eagles’ 17 point loss at Middle Tennessee State. My ratings favor Southern Miss by 19 points but my match up analysis favors the Eagles by 22 points, as I expect UTSA to turn the ball over a lot against the Southern Miss pressure. But, the line is pretty fair even after factoring in the matchup and the situation is certainly good. However, the Eagles have been relatively better at home under coach Donnie Tyndall, as is the case with a lot of teams that play aggressive defense. I am still tempted to make UTSA a Best Bet because the situation is so good (and is 3-1 for me this season), but I’ll just lean with the Roadrunners in this one.
OC Dooley
Toledo -3.5
Admittedly it makes sense that ESPNU cable is telecasting this clash since the network is in the midst of rivalry week and these pair of squads are meeting for the 165th time. But the bottom line is that Bowling Green (5-7 league record) is catching mighty Toledo (21-4 overall) at the wrong time. Not only is Toledo coming off a rare outright defeat, the offense was held to a season-low 44 points. Toledo leads the conference in average point per game production (81.7) and in their first clash this campaign versus Bowling Green the Rockets compiled 43 rebounds while dishing out 17 assists. Not only is Toledo 10-2 ATS/ROAD long term when facing a losing opponent with a below .500 overall record, they are also UNDEFEATED with their current head coach (6-0 ATS) immediately following a contest where the offense made “33 percent or less” of their attempts from the field
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Penn State/ Nebraska Under 136: Really hope this isn't a trap, but I just don't see how this OU line is even in the 130's. Early this year these teams played at Penn State, where the games are a bit more high scoring, yet the teams combined for just 112 points. Actually this series has been low scoring overall as the 5 games played have averaged just 122 ppg, with none of those games putting up more than 132 points. Now this game will be played at Nebraska, where the Huskers really slow the pace and play great defense. The Huskers only allow 59.9 ppg at home and Penn State has scored just 67.8 ppg on the road, including just 64 ppg in their Big 10 road games (Regulation Only). The Lions do allowed 73.2 on the road, but just 69.2 ppg in their last 4 Big 10 road games and Nebraska averages just 70.8 ppg at home, including 69.4 ppg in Big 10 home games. Nebraska's last 5 games have averaged just 116.4 ppg and with them being at home I fully expect them to have the pace of the game to their liking and that should be a game in the 120's at best.
3 UNIT PLAY
South Dakota/ Neb-Omaha Under 154.5: Omaha has been been involved in some lower scoring games of late as their last 5 games have averaged just 148 ppg, compared to their seasonal average of 154.8 ppg. Teams have been slowing them down of late and South Dakota has the ability to do do just that, especially at home where their games have averaged just 137.5 ppg. South Dakota has played very good defense at home, allowing just 67.3 on 42.7% shooting and that should be good enough to keep Omaha in the lower 70's. South Dakota comes in a mediocre offensive team that does not push tempo as they average just 67.5 ppg overall and 70.2 ppg at home and I don't see them getting much more than that in this one. The way to beat omaha is to slow the pace and South Dakota should be able to do that. South Dakota's last 5 games have averaged just 138.2 ppg and none of their last 12 games have put up more than 150 points. I see this one in the lower 140's.