Brad Wilton
Thursday night's comp play is the Cal Golden Bears as the road underdog in Eugene as they play against the revenge-minded Ducks.
Cal won a 58-54 decision in Berkeley to start this month, as the Golden Bears increased their series winning streak to a whopping 10 straight games versus the Ducks!
Oregon has won their last 3 games coming into this home contest, but they are on a 1-7 spread slide their last 8 games overall, and they catch the Bears making a little "at-large" noise, as Mike Montgomery's team has won 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6 overall.
Dominic Artis is still hampered by an ankle injury, so rather than back Dana Altman's crew to end their series losing skid, I will take the generous points and look for the Golden Bears to once again be a thorn in the side of the Ducks.
2* CALIFORNIA
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Duke vs. Virginia TechFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Virginia TechFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Though the Hokies have lost eight straight games, you have to figure we'll be getting their best shot tonight at home against Duke, a team who always carries a target on its back to begin with and one that also happened to beat Va Tech three times last season.....
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Said Hokies star guard Erick Green, "This is every kid's dream - to play against Duke, national TV, prime time and in front of the whole world. This is a big moment, not just for myself but for the whole team." In spite of his team's poor season, Green has had an exemplary campaign, particularly here at home. He's averaging 30.5 points his last four games in Blacksburg. The senior had 29 points Saturday in an overtime loss to NC State. Still it wasn't enough though. But the Hokies continue to be competitive as their last three losses at home have all come by single digits.
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Duke is coming off a loss last weekend at Maryland, so the knee-jerk reaction is to back them here. But this is a big number to lay on the conference road, particularly with the Blue Devils' .500 road record in ACC play. Two of their three conference road wins have come by a combined six points. Two of their three wins last season against Virginia Tech came by five points or less. Duke will get back on track with a win here, but they won't cover.
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Los Angeles Clippers -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Clippers beat the Spurs 106-84 at home on Nov. 7 and shortly came away with a 92-87 win in San Antonio. Los Angeles has simply not forgot about getting swept by the Spurs in last years playoffs. Due to the Clippers struggles without Chris Paul, this team finds itself having to prove that they are one of the elite contenders to win it all. No better time to do that, than a nationally televised game on TNT against the Western Conference leading Spurs. The Clippers have had plenty of time to prepare for this game, as this will be their first time playing since beating the Lakers 125-101 last Thursday. While I don't expect the Clippers to win in a blowout, they should have no trouble covering this small number in front of their home crowd.
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Los Angeles is 15-5 in home games when playing 6 or less games over a 14 span in the last three seasons, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs a team with a road winning % better than .600 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. San Antonio is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs a team with a winning % above .600 and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Thursday.
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Stanford at Oregon St.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: StanfordFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Great time to back Stanford in this virtual pick 'em spot, as they face an Oregon State team coming off a ten-point road loss at Washington to drop the Beavers to a dismal 3-10 record in the conference. Oregon State managed to shoot just 34% in that defeat, and they don't match up well on paper against this Stanford team. The Beavers had one of their best shooting efforts of the season in Stanford earlier this year, making 49% of their shots but still falling by 8 points in an 81-73 defeat. Not sure how much they would have lost by if they didn't have that great shooting effort, but we'll likely get a glimpse of that tonight as that number was well above the Beavers' average output. Stanford is in a "bounce-back" spot here after allowing 54% shooting against UCLA - the first time they allowed at least 50% shooting since January 24th. And they rebounded from that dismal performance with a 31-point win at Utah the following game. Stanford defense puts the clamps down on the Beavers and control this game from the opening tip.
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Los Angeles Clippers -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles have home court, are rested & healthy, have won 4 straight overall, including both meetings with San Antonio this season. Plus, Popovich may save some key minutes for Golden State tomorrow night.
Wunderdog
California at Oregon
Pick: California +6
The Oregon Ducks are 21-5 on the season, but they built a big record with a very soft non-conference schedule with the only notable win coming against UNLV. they are 9-3 in their last 12 games, but have not pulled away from anyone with just one win by 10 points or more, and had a lot of close calls winning in overtime. Four of their other wins came by 5 points or less. Cal has pinned one of the five losses on the Ducks, and have come a long way late in the season from where they were early on. The Bears are 5-1 in their last six and in addition to beating Oregon they have also knocked off UCLA. The Ducks' record is impressive, but the results of close games leaves them short as they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games. Cal gets the call here.
Teddy Covers
Georgia at Arkansas
Play: Georgia
Arkansas is in a miserable spot tonight. They’re coming off a lucky, somewhat fraudulent win over Missouri in their last game, outscoring the Tigers 7-1 in the last 28 seconds to steal a two-point victory. On deck for the Razorbacks? A trip to Florida to take on the revenge minded Gators.
In between is this game against Georgia as double-digit favorites. Even head coach Mike Anderson is worried about his team’s ability to focus tonight. “I know after Missouri everybody is patting them on the back and saying, ‘Great, great win!’”
While focus is a major issue for the home favorite, we’re catching the road underdog in a spot where their hunger is very real. Three different extremely controversial calls went against the Bulldogs in the final minutes of regulation against Ole Miss on Saturday, as they lost an eight-point lead late, eventually losing in overtime to the Rebels.
But even in that defeat, Georgia showed why they are a bet-on team in hostile environments. Prior to the OT loss at Ole Miss, they had won their previous three SEC road games at Tennessee, South Carolina and Texas A&M. Head coach Mark Fox: “We have been pretty stable away from home. I think our defense has been pretty consistent all year and that has been a great stabilizer for us. One of the keys to winning away from home is trying to slow that home team down.”
Georgia also has one significant matchup edge against the Razorbacks – rebounding! Anderson: ““They outrebounded Ole Miss by 15. That’s something that really caught my eye. Ole Miss is a very good rebounding basketball team. We will have our work cut out for us…They’re a team that will shoot it and go get it. Their guards rebound the basketball.”
Over the last five games, Georgia has averaged a +6 margin on the boards, while Arkansas has averaged a -8 rebounding differential. Expect those extra possessions for the Bulldogs to work in our favor tonight!
Nelly
LaSalle + over Temple
LaSalle has won eight of the last 10 games making a strong push in the Atlantic 10. The Explorers have been an excellent road team with a 9-4 S/U record in road and neutral site games this season. Temple has struggled at home this year including going just 2-9 ATS and the Owls look a bit overvalued again Thursday night. Temple has history on its side but the Owls are just a mediocre 6-5 in A-10 play this season and coming off a huge one-point road win over Massachusetts could create a letdown spot tonight. Temple has lost to several marginal teams at home this season falling against Duquesne and St. Bonaventure and four of Temple's six conference wins have come by two point or less as this is a team that has been fortunate to squeak by in several games. The win over Syracuse gives the Owls some national credibility but there is not much else to like on the resume for the Owls. Temple won in overtime when these teams met last season which should boost the importance of this game for LaSalle and statistically the Explorers have looked like the superior team on both sides of the ball.
Steve Merril
San Antonio vs. L.A. Clippers
Pick: San Antonio
We’ll take the points with the Spurs as they avenge the two losses to the Clippers with an impressive performance tonight in Los Angeles.
Both teams went into the All-Star break on extended winning streaks; San Antonio won 14 of their last 15 games while Los Angeles won 5 of their last 6 games. The Spurs have played since the break and they won 108-102 at Sacramento on Tuesday night. We see that as being a big advantage for San Antonio as they’ve had a game to get their rhythm and chemistry back on the court. They will be the sharper team tonight, and since they are playing with double revenge, we expect the Spurs to come with a big effort.
Los Angeles has won both of the meetings against the Spurs this season. The Clippers won at home 106-84 and they won at San Antonio 92-87. However, both of those games came way back in November and a lot has changed since then. The Clippers were also underdogs in both of those games and now they are laying more than a bucket into a team that is 43-12 on the season. Los Angeles was playing their best basketball of the season prior to the All-Star break, and the interruption in play was not a good thing for them. We’ll take the points with the Spurs as they avenge the two losses to the Clippers with an impressive performance tonight in Los Angeles.
Jack Jones
Heat/Bulls UNDER 187
I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. These are two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and it's clear that they bring out the best in one another defensively when they get together. That's evident when you look at the recent meetings between these teams.
Each of the last three meetings between Miami and Chicago have seen 185 or fewer combined points. Chicago beat Miami 96-89 on the road in their lone meeting this season. They also played twice last April with Miami winning 83-72 at home for 155 combined points, and Chicago winning 96-86 (OT) at home for 182 combined points.
If you don't count overtime, Chicago and Miami have combined for an average of 169.3 points/game in their last three meetings. As you can see, that number is well below tonight's posted total of 187. That means we are getting roughly 18 points of value in backing the UNDER in this one.
The UNDER is 19-8 in all Chicago home games this season. It is scoring 91.8 points/game and allowing 88.9 points/game at home this season. It is combining with its opponents to average 180.7 points/game at home this year. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Chicago.
Chicago is 14-3 to the UNDER in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
Freddy Wills
Connecticut +1
Uconn is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meeting with Cinci. If they can rebound tonight they win this game because Cincinatti is really struggling shooting 35.2% from the field. They rely too much on the three ball over 44% of their shot come from three in their last 5 games shooting just 27.4%. Uconn defends the perimeter well and they are even playing better at home. Cinci has not proven it can play on the road on the defensive end as they are ranked 14th overall in 2 point defense but on the road they are giving up over 5% more allowing opponents to shoot 46.8% from the field. Look for Uconn to use that to their advantage.
Red Dog Sports
Duke / Virginia Tech Under 146½
Take the under in this game. Duke plays solid defense and is not a very deep team without Ryan Kelly, who has been out about a month with an injury. Virginia Tech has Erick Green, who averages over 20 ppg but the other starters are less productive on the offensive side. Look for a game that barely reaches the 140's that stays under.
Jeff Alexander
Penn State +15
Illinois has won back-to-back games by 20 and 21, respectively, but doesn't deserve quite this much respect against a Penn State squad that is fighting hard for its first Big Ten win. The Nittany Lions have covered the number in each of their last two games as they have given Iowa and Michigan all they wanted and more. Plus, Illinois is 2-9 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons and 0-7 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take Penn State.
Dave Price
Oregon State +2
Stanford can't be trusted laying points on the road. It is just 2-4 on the road in conference play this season and enters this contest in poor form having been upset in back-to-back games at home. The Cardinal won the season's first meeting at home but will have a tough time duplicating that performance here. It has defeated Oregon State by more than 2 points on the road just once in the past five meetings. The Beavers have been a tremendous investment when catching points. In fact, they are 64-43 ATS as an underdog under coach Craig Robinson. The Beavers lost at Washington last game but are an impressive 8-1 ATS following a loss against a conference foe this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
La Salle -105 over TEMPLE
The Temple Owls are a well-known program that ranks sixth all time in collegiate basketball in wins. As a pick-em on its home court against the lesser known Explorers of La Salle, the Owls are likely to get plenty of public backing here. We’re not on board for that, as the Explorers are one of those mid-major clubs with little fanfare but major talent. La Salle has now won six of its past seven games to run its overall record to 18-6 and conference record to 8-3. If La Salle beats Temple tonight, the Explorers will go 4-0 in the Big 5, winning the Big 5 title outright for the first time since 1989-90. The Big 5 is a group of Philadelphia schools (Villanova, Temple, La Salle, Penn and St. Joseph's) that have played in a round-robin format every year since 1955). The last time the Explorers went 4-0 they also won an NCAA tournament game. With the way this club is playing, another trip to the dance this season is attainable.
The Owls have been on a once in a lifetime run the past five games with all five contests being decided by a single point. We’re not sure but it’s quite possibly the first time in history that one team has had five games in succession decided by one point. Temple went 3-2 in those games but what’s more significant is the intensity level of play and the toll it takes. Those past five games were not against any elite clubs other. Among them, Temple lost at home to the 1-11 Duquesne Dukes. They also lost to St. Joes while defeating UMass, Dayton and Charlotte. The Owls have gone just 5-4 in their past nine contests and they’re not the superior team here. La Salle is in better form and catch the Owls at precisely the right time.
Pass NBA