Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Orlando -3 over ATLANTA: The Hawks are headed in a downward spiral as they have lost 3 in a row and will once again be without leading scorer Joe Johnson. Atlanta has really struggled to score of late as they have averaged just 83.4 ppg in their last 5 games and it won't get easier tonight vs an Orlando team that has allowed just 91.1 ppg overall and 88.6 ppg in their last 5 games. Both teams did play last night, but for Atlanta it was their 5 straight road game and with this being their first home game back off a long trip they may just not be fully focused for this game. Orlando has been rolling of late as they have won 6 of their last 7 and they should take care of the undermanned Hawks tonight.
OKLAHOMA CITY -6 over LA Lakers: Statement time for the Thunder here and what better timer to make it than right now. The Lakers are a bad road time this year, they have some locker room issues and it doesn't look like Mike Brown has full control of the team. Now they have to travel to take on a Thunder team that has clearly shown they are the class of the West this year. the Thunder come in at 26-7 overall and 14-1 at home, while outscoring their home opponents by a solid 11 ppg. Both teams did play last night, but while the Lakers were in a dogfight with Dallas, the Thunder were having an easy time of it with Boston. The Lakers will be tired for this one (4th in 5 nights) and the younger more talented Thunder should walk away with a nice DD win.
2 UNIT PLAY
Miami/ New York Over 199: Lin, Anthony, Smith, Stoudamire. The Knicks now are healthy and have all the pieces to make Dantonio's offense work and they will start running a lot more now and they will have to tonight to keep up with a Miami team that averages 105 ppg at home. The Knicks have picked up their offense of late as they have averaged 96 ppg in their last 5 games and it will only get better with Carmelo in there. Miami will push the tempo at home and that will help get the Knicks out and running as well. Both teams could hit 100 in this one. KEY TREND--- LA LAKERS are 12-25 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.
David Banks
Duke / Florida St Under
The Florida State Seminoles (19-7, 13-11 ATS) will attempt to take their third straight from the Duke Blue Devils (23-4, 12-15 ATS) on Thursday night when the two ACC powerhouses lock horns for the second time this season; Tune to ESPN or log onto ESPN3.com to take this one in live starting at 7:00 ET.
A win here tonight would allow the Dookies to tie the North Carolina Tar Heels atop the ACC standings and take control of the conference with them having already toppled their most hated rival in dramatic fashion a couple weeks back. Coach Ks kids have been every bit as good as their 10-2 SU mark in the conference indicates, with the only two losses coming at home in overtime to the Miami Hurricanes and to tonights opponent who got the best of them at Cameron Indoor at the buzzer. Since shockingly falling to the Canes on Super Bowl Sunday, frosh phenom Austin Rivers has led his squad to four straight victories over UNC, Maryland, NC State, and Boston College. They won those games by an average of just over 12 points per game and covered the closing number in all but three of them. With only a trip to Wake Forest scheduled to go along with two home games against VTECH & UNC, Duke could hold the inside track for the ACC Championship if indeed it manages to get by the Noles in tonights spot. Dukes 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS away from Durham on the year.
After finally getting further than the 1st round of the NCAA Tourney a season ago, Head Coach Leonard Hamilton now has his squad on the brink of winning the ACC after finishing in third place a year ago. Save for shocking losses at both Boston College (64-60) and Clemson (79-59), the Noles have been every bit as dominating as both North Carolina and Duke has been within the conference. Even more so at home where FSU checks in 14-1 SU & 8-5 ATS; that mark improves to 6-0 SU & 3-3 ATS in the ACC with it failing to cover each of its last three. The Seminoles snapped a string of four straight pointspread defeats its last time out at NC State where it pounded the Wolfpack 76-62 as two-point underdogs. The win moved them into a tie with Duke for second place, but since they already hold the tiebreaker, they would surpass the Blue Devils if indeed they sweep the season series.
FSU has won and covered each of the last two meetings between these rivals winning 66-61 as seven-point home underdogs in January of last season and 76-73 at Duke as 10.5-point underdogs this past January; Michael Snaers last-second 3-Ball proved to be the difference in the neck and neck affair. Duke checks in just 5-5 SU & ATS the L/10 times it went off the board favored by two-point or less, and will invade Tallahassee having covered each of their L/5 road tussles. FSU counters with rock solid 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS tallies the L/10 times it was dogged by two-points or less, and has also covered six of its L/8 versus +.600 opposition. Dukes gone a very poor 2-6 ATS its L/8 visits to the Donald L. Tucker Center, with the under cashing in all eight of those match-ups.
WUNDERDOG
Duke at Florida State
Pick: Duke -120
The Duke Blue Devils make news when they lose a game, something that has occurred just four times this season. One of those news makers was vs. Florida State. The Seminoles went to Cameron and beat Duke on their home floor. Coach K has done a great job shutting down things that went wrong in the first meeting, and motivating his kids to come back with a fury. Unless your uniform says North Carolina on it, Duke has not lost two regular season games in the same year to anyone since 2006 when Maryland pulled the unlikely sweep. It has been a good year for the Seminoles, but they are going to face a furious Duke team that has been great in the Coach K era of exacting revenge. Play Duke on the moneyline.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose -½ +142 over TORONTO
The game of netminder musical chairs continues, as Ron Wilson is going back to James Reimer here after Jonas Gustavsson allowed three soft goals in his last game. This is not the right approach coming down the stretch with playoff hopes hanging by a thread. When Chicago was labouring, they stuck with Corey Crawford. When the Ducks couldn't win a game and Jonas Hiller was struggling, they stuck with him and now he's among the hottest goaltenders in the league. When we look at teams that are not sticking with one guy, (Columbus, Washington, Edmonton, Minnesota and the Islanders) we see a bunch of clubs that will be golfing in April. James Reimer is not NHL material. He's a far worse option than Gustavsson. Most notably, the uncertainty at the position has both these Leaf goaltenders “playing scared”. That doesn’t bode well against an offensively gifted and talented Sharks squad coming off a 6-3 loss in Columbus. The Sharks rarely get to play in hockey's hotbed and they'll certainly be amped up to do so. Additionally, the Sharks arrive in a foul mood after losing their fourth straight and their playoff position not nearly as secure as it was two weeks ago. Both teams are fragile right now but the difference is that the Leafs have just one OT win over Edmonton in their past seven and will now rely again on a backup minor-league goaltender to bail them out. Let’s fade that. Play: San Jose -½ +142 (Risking 2 units).
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAYS
Duke -2 over FLORIDA STATE: Google News Play. Don't look now, but the Dukies are starting to play really good ball right now, ands it started with that road win over Carolina. Duke is now 23-4 on the year and at 10-2 they are currently tied for 2nd place in the ACC with the Noles. Duke has 2 home losses on the year, which is Rare for them, and one of those losses was on a last second 3 pointer by the Noles. Duke has won 4 in a row now and they are 6-0 in ACC road games , which has included wins at North Carolina, Va Tech and Clemson. The Noles continue to play well, but they have recently lost at Boston College and they needed a big comeback to win at home vs Va Tech, plus they struggled at home vs Miami as well. Alll of that in their last 4 games. FSU does have a solid defensive edge, but the Dukies have a solid offensive edge, they are playing with revenge and are starting to look like a team that is ready for a deep run in the NCAA tourney. I expect a Duke win of 7+ here.
Chattanooga/ Furman Over 138: Both teams are off of games hat failed to hit 105 points, so im gonna throw out those games and look at what the teams did prior to their last games. Prior to their game vs Citadel, Chattanooga's last 6 games had all hit at least 147 points, with those games averaging 152.3 ppg. The Mocs have allowed 79.6 ppg on the road this year and that has helped all 8 of their conference road games to hit at least 149 points, while those games have averaged 158.3 ppg. 20 points worth of value there. Now let's look at Furman. Paladin home games have averaged just 135.1 ppg, while their games overall have averaged just 129.8 ppg, but in their 4 games prior to the Samford game those games averaged 148.3 ppg, while their last 5 home games have averaged a solid 149.4 ppg. Between those last 2 numbers that about 8 or 9 points in our favor. The Mocs will push the tempo and the Paladins have should they can score in an uptempo game, plus it doesn't hurt that they are taking on one of the worst road defensive teams in the nation. Look for this one to hit the 140's with ease.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Georgia Southern +9 over CHARLESTON: Huh? What's up here. The Eagles are 12-4 in the SoCon, while Charleston has an 8-8 conference mark, plus we note that the Eagles have already beaten Charleston this year and that the last 4 in the series has been decided by 8 points or less, so why the high spread here. I just don't get it. The Eagles come in having won their last 6 overall and while they are just 4-11 on the road this year they have won their last 3 away from home in conference play. Charleston has been inconsistent as they come in off a road win over Kent State, but prior to that they did lose by 15 points on the road to a mediocre Greensboro squad. Charleston is 9-4 at home, but just 2-2 in their last 4 conference home games, which has included a 4 point win over a bad Western Carolina team and BB home looses to Wofford and Furman earlier in the year. They did beat Davidson in their last home game, but they still have just 2 conference home wins over 8 points (Citadel (6-22) and Elon (13-14). The eagles had some bad early season road losses, but they are playing much better now, and I just think this is too many points for a team that is 4 games behoind another team in the standing s to be laying. This one goes to the wire.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
St Mary's -12 over PORTLAND: St Mary's is 23-5 and 12-2 in the conference this year. This is a huge game for them as they are a game ahead of both BYU and Gonzaga and with both teams battling it out tonight the Gaels would fall in to a tie with the winner of that one, should they lose here. To me they should have this team fully focused. They also come in having lost 3 of their last 4 overall and they do not want another collapse like last year that saw them lose in te first round of the NIT, after having such a great regular season. This team needs some confidence down the stretch and what better way to get an easy win vs a Portland team that is just 6-21 overall and 3-11 in the WCC. The Pilots have struggled at both ends of the floor as they are 224th in scoring (65.5 ppg) and 331st in points allowed (76.1). Those are not good numbers when your about to face a Gaels team that 38th in scoring (75 ppg) and 58th in points allowed (62.2 ppg). even though it is vs a weak team like Portland, the Gaels need a big win here to get some confidence back and keep the pressure on the Zags and Cougs in the race for the WCC regular season crown. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on a road team if they are an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) and off a game in which both teams scored 65 points or less and are up against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG). This play is 47-18 the last 5 seasons.
Louisville/ Cincinnati Over 132: In looking at this game originally I thought of maybe taking the Cardinals as they are a very hot team and are really coming together at the right time, but after studying it a bit more I have found that I like the total even more. Louisville's offense has really been playing well of late as they have averaged 75.2 ppg in their last 5 games, while also putting up 69.6 ppg on the road this year. Cincinnati's offense has turned the corner as well as they come in averaging a healthy 74.2 ppg in their last 5 games. Now these hot offensive team will be facing a couple of teams that have been average on defense of late, as Louisville has allowed 66.6 ppg oin their last 5 games, while Cincinnati has allowed 67.6 ppg in their last 5. Cinci's last 5 at home have averaged 136.5 ppg, while Louisville's last 5 on the road have put up 141.2 ppg. I see no reason why both teams can't hit at least the up 60's in this one.
NEW MEXICO STATE -11 over Hawaii: Coming to the mainland is never easy for the rainbows and this should be no exception. NMSU is 12-3 at home this year and they have won the last 6 at home SU (4-2 ATS) vs the Rainbows. On area that the Rainbows struggle with on t6he road is defense as they have allowed 75.5 ppg away from home and that's not good news vs an Aggie team that has averaged 76.9 ppg at home. The Rainbows did beat NMSU on the Islands and they did put up 91 points in that one, but they also allowed 87. The Aggies play a bit better defense at home, where they have allowed just 67.2 ppg, while in their last 5 5 games overall they have allowed just 62.4 ppg. The Rainbows can scoree as they have averaged 74.1 ppg overall and 72.4 ppg on the road, but their defense is so bad away from home that I just don't see them scoring enough here to keep this one close.
2 UNIT PLAYS
BYU +6 over GONZAGA: Just too many points to be laying vs a solid team team like BYU that knows how to win on the road. The Cougars have won 4 of their last 5 away from home and they did what the zags couldn't do and that was win at San Francisco. The Zags are not really the dominant teams as is years past and they come in on a 2-8-1 spread run. I wouldn't be surprised if BYU wins this one outright.
Eastern Wahsington/ Idaho State Over 136: IDAHO ST is 15-3 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) after 15 or more games since 1997, while E WASHINGTON is 29-15 OVER against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAYS
IOWA +5 over Wisconsin: The Hawkeys have beaten Indiana, Michigan and minnesota at home this year, while also taking down Wisconsin on their home floor by 17, so this team is no slouch. The badgers are the better team, with the much better defense, but I just don't see them scoring enough on the road (59 ppg) to make this an easy winner. Iowa will keep it close.
Alabama/ Arkansas Under 134: ALABAMA is 11-3 UNDER after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons, while ARKANSAS is 14-5 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
Alatex
North Texas at Arkansas-Little Rock
Play: Arkansas-Little Rock -3
If a bettor had the foresight to back these two teams all year, he would be smiling all the way to the bank. North Texas has gone 15-5-1 ATS and just had an 11-0-1 pointspread streak snapped with a home loss to Louisiana-Lafayette. UALR has been even better, going 18-6 ATS for the season. The Trojans have been the biggest surprise of the Sun Belt with their 11-3 conference record that includes a win at North Texas in late December. They lead the West Division and can clinch it outright with a win tonight. Little Rock is playing at full strength again after freshman forward Will Neighbour was injured back in late December. He returned two weeks later, but went from playing 30 minutes a game to less than 20 in his first seven games back. He has averaged 30 minutes over the last four games – all wins – and chipped in 16 ppg. Look for the home side to complete the season sweep of the Mean Green tonight.
Sammy P
St. Louis at Nashville
Play: Nashville
St. Louis heads to Nashville tonight for an always heated Central Division matchup. This begins an important six games in 10 days road trip for the St. Louis Blues. Throw in the game versus Boston last night on home ice and the Blues will be playing seven games in just 11 nights! After a tough loss last night to the Bruins the Blues look to rally the troops on the second part of their back-to-back tonight in Nashville. Don't be so quick to back the Blues here as they are 4-8 this season on the second half of a back-to-backs. Recently on February 4th, they faced this same Nashville team on the road after a win the previous night and fell to the Predators in a 3-1 loss. That brought the season series to a perfect 4-0 for Nashville against the Blues. Nashville has made an early splash at the trade deadline picking up Hal Gill which will surely help their defensive core. Nashville has surprised many this season as they have gone 17-8 since Christmas break playing against some of the stiffest competition in the NHL over that course of time. Pekka Rinne has been superb in goal all season and there is no sign of letup. He can flat out steal wins for this Predators teams if he needs to. St. Louis has played consistently all season long, but this road trip is going to very tough for them. Nashville continues to rise in the standings and it gets the job done at home tonight against the Blues.
NHL Predictions
Sharks / Maple Leafs Over 5.5
The Sharks have lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 8 and head to Toronto to look to get back in the winning column. The Sharks are averaging 3.40 goals per game over their last 5, but have allowed 4.20 against during that span. The Maple Leafs have lost 2 straight, and 6 of their last 7 games. Over their last 5 games the Leafs are allowing 4.60 goals against per game, and they are now on the lookout for a goaltender before the trade deadline. Both Reimer and Gustavsson are struggling mightily as of late. Overall on the season the Maple Leafs are allowing over 3 goals against per game. The OVER is 8-3 in the Sharks last 11 games overall, and 8-3 in their last 11 vs Eastern Conference opponents. Also note that the OVER is 14-2 in their last 16 following a loss of 3 or more goals (lost to Columbus by 3 on Tuesday). The OVER is 4-0 in the Leafs last 4. Western Conference teams that don’t get to visit Toronto a lot usually come out with high energy, and we often see high scoring games. With the fire power the Sharks have, and the Leafs defense struggling I can see this being a high scoring game. Take the OVER.
Flyers / Oilers Over 5.5
Although the Flyers have been going through goaltender struggles they are keeping up by scoring a lot of goals themselves. The Flyers have managed to win two of their last 3 games, scoring 16 goals over the those three games. Philadelphia is scoring 4.20 goals per game over their last 5, but giving up the same 4.20 against. On the season Philadelphia is ranked 1st in the NHL scoring 3.34 goals per game, but they are 27th allowing 2.98 against per game. The Oilers are coming off a 6-1 win in Calgary, and are averaging 3.20 goals per game in their last 5 games, and 3.20 against during that span as well. Edmonton sits middle of the league in goals per game, but are also near the bottom (24th) allowing 2.95 against per game. The OVER is 6-0 in their last 6 overall, and 16-7 in their last 23 road games. The OVER is also 4-1 in the Flyers last 5 vs Western Conference opponents, and 21-10-1 in their last 32 vs a team with a losing record. The OVER is 8-1-1 in the Oilers last 10 games overall, and 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games. The OVER is also 7-0 in the Oilers last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Everything pointing to the over in this one, and I can see there being a lot of goals going in tonight.