Tom Freese
Oregon at USC
Oregon is 12-14 overall and 4-10 in Conference Play Guard Malcolm Armstead scores 11 points a game. Guard Tajuan Porter scores 11 points a game. Center Mike Dunnigan scores 9.9 points a game. No other player on the team scores more than 7.3 points a game. The Ducks score just 69.7 points a game. Oregon is 6-0-1 UNDER their last 7 games and they are 20-8 UNDER as road dogs of 7.0 to 12.5 points. USC is 16-10 overall and they are 8-6 in Conference Play. Guard Dwight Lewis scores 14 points a game. Forward Nikola Vucevik scores 11.7 points a game. Forward Marcus Johnson scores 9.8 points a game. Guard Mike Gerrity scores 9.1 points a game. The Trojans score just 60.1 points a game. USC is 9-4 UNDER their last 13 home games and they are 6-1 UNDER their last 7 Pac 10 games. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
VEGAS EXPERTS
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors
In three prior meetings with the Nuggets this season, Golden State has yielded 123, 123 and 135 points. For the season, they are giving up over 110 points per game. They are also 19-9 Over at home playing with double revenge and 11-2 Over at home revenging a home loss.
Play on: Over
John Ryan
Georgia vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Georgia +12
3* graded play on Georgia as they take on Vanderbilt set to start at 7:00 EST in SEC Action. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Georgia will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 62-37 for 70% winners since 2004. Play against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points after a combined score of 115 points or less and with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent. Here is another supporting system and if you like action then this system is right for you. This system has gone 477-345 for 58% winners and has made a whopping 97.5 units in profits since 1997. Play against home favorites of 10 or more points that are solid ball handling teams committing =45% of their shots after 15+ games. Take Georgia.
JR O'Donnell
Middle Tenn St vs. Florida Intl
Play: Middle Tenn St -6
LAYING POINTS ON THE ROAD IS DEADLY IN SOME CASES.. NOT TONIGHT dbl digits tonight not a big factor of the revenge factor in late season hoops but tonight's J Bomb goes to a revenge minded Blue Raiders who were flat out embarrassed @ Fla International last game .. Diving into the #'s MTSU was outshot & out classed at a 57%-36% loss back on January 14th as a 12 point favorite...OUCH, They crank it real tight tonight as the Raiders pull away late and win by double digit's, we have this baby @ around a 76- 62 final. The public is all over the Blue Raiders @ a 78% rate, and tonight the public is correct #9 goes to the MTSU - 6 tonight
Sam Martin
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
While Denver has been outstanding against the top teams in the league, they are also playing down to the level of the bad teams. Case in points, after beating the Cavs last Sunday, they came back and lost outright at Washington by ten as six-point chalk. Golden State has been hot and cold recently, going 3-3 straight up, but they can score enough points to keep this one close. While an outright win by the Warriors wouldn't surprise us, a Denver blowout certainly would. 5* Play on Golden State.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on South Alabama +2
This matchup has been all about home court so we can't really read too much into the 71-48 loss Denver handed South Bama last month except that it has provided plenty of motivation for the Jags. In fact, the home team is an impressive 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings. The Pioneers are about as poor a road team as you'll find. They are 2-10 SU when playing away from home this season and 1-10 ATS in those lined games. In fact, the Pioneers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. S. Bama is off back-to-back losses, and this is its last home games of the season so you can expect it to play with a great deal of pride and passion tonight. Take the Jags.
GoodFella
MIL PK vs IND
Pacers are playing their 1st game back at home off a 4 game week long roadie tonight and fading teams in this spot definitley wins way more than it loses These two clubs are going in opposite directions and the fact that the Pacers are playing with double revenge tonight is something to consider, but I will back the BUCKS here who are in a back to back spot tonight, but so are the Pacers but the Bucks thrive in this spot this season as they are (9-5 SU & 11-3 ATS) in back 2 backs and they are playing much better ball than the Pacers & I look for that to continue tonight So let's play on this BUCKS club who are (7-2 SU & ATS) their L/9 games coming into tonight & should handle this floundering Pacers ballclub again tonight, who are just (1-6 SU) their L/7 games.
Insider Angles
The North Texas Mean Green have quietly won six straight games to improve to 19-8 overall while playing in the obscurity that is the Sun Belt Conference, but they will not have a cakewalk when they host the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns Thursday night.
The Cajuns may be just 13-14, but they have won five of their last seven games and they generally keep games close. Granted, they are 3-10 on the road, but they are only losing their road games vs. Division I opponents by an average of -4.4 points, a margin that would cover this contest.
Although UL Lafayette is only 1-3 straight up in their last four road games, two of those losses were by two points and the third was by four points, meaning they would be 4-0 against the spread vs. this number in those games. They also upset the Mean Green back in Lafayette 74-72 last month.
Now North Texas certainly had an impressive record, but they also appear to be a bit lucky, as their overall average margin of victory of +3.3 points is rather low for a 19-8 team. The problem has been defense, as the Mean Green rank just 205 in the country in defensive efficiency according to the Pomeroy Ratings, allowing 1.032 points per possession after adjusting for their schedule.
We feel that shaky defense trumps the revenge factor here, so we look for Lafayette to hang tough in this game right down to the final buzzer.
Pick: UL Lafayette +6
SPORTS WAGERS
GOLDEN STATE +1.93/+5½ over Denver
If you’re on board for this one, wait until much later in the day to place your bet because this line can only go one way. Statistically, you really can’t make much of a case for the Warriors but if all games were decided by “who should win” we’d all be rich. What I do know is that there are three NBA games on the board today with two of them featured on TNT, and bettors that don’t play college hoops have nothing else to choose from. In other words, all action will be on tonight’s TNT doubleheader and every square on the planet will be laying the lumber on the Nuggets. No offense to anyone of course but it is what it is and recognizing a “square” line is as important as playing it. What’s even more interesting is that the line opened at Denver –6 and with everyone playing Denver, the line still dropped this morning and that is a sure sign of a rat. This number will creep back up by game time and that is an absolute. So, play the Nuggets if you wish, they can win and they can blow this host out. Hell, the Warriors just lost to Philly at home by eight while the Nuggets are coming off a win over the Celtics and have been off for three days to boot. Anything can happen but the “right” side here is the Warriors, as this line was designed to entice action on them and anytime we can be on the same side as the books our chances of cashing the ticket increases. This play will be updated much later in the day to reflect the price we’re getting. Play: Golden State +1.92 (Risking 1 unit). Play: Golden State +5½ (Risking 1.05 units to win 1).
Brett Atkins
I improved to 8-3 with my last 11 Free plays when Dallas took care of business at home and scored the victory over the Lakers. Tonight I have a college winner for you as I go with Murray State on the road at Morehead State.
Murray State has rattled off 17 straight wins and the Racers aren't just squeaking by, they are laying the wood to some teams, but because their lines have been so inflated, they haven't been covering.
But no worries tonight as they are on the road and laying a small number at Morehead State. The Racers beat Morehead by 30 points in their first meeting this season and dominated the game from start to finigh.
I know the Eagles have been playign better at home, but I don't think it's going to be good enough to fend off Murray State. Go ahead and lay the small number and play the Racers.
3♦ MURRAY STATE
Michael Cannon
Take Southern Cal as the home chalk over Oregon.
The Ducks are fading fast. Oregon is 0-5 SU in its last five overall and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 lined games.
Southern Cal has revenge motive for 67-57 loss at Eugene on Jan. 30, so look for a focused effort from the Trojans. This is the perfect opportunity for USC to kick a division rival while its down and to also atone for an early loss to them.
Take USC minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
2♦ USC
Joel Tyson
Tuesday night comp play winner on Miami-Florida over Virginia.
Wednesday night comp play winner on Temple over Dayton.
After playing some competitive basketball not that long ago, Indiana has really run out of gas, as the Hoosiers enter this home game having lost 8 straight, and having lost 5 in a row against the spread.
Wisconson hasn't been anything special away from Madison this year, but they have been quite "special" when playing Indiana, as Bo Ryan's crew has run roughshod over the Hoosiers, winning and covering 5 in a row in the series, including a 83-55 rout in Madison on the 13th of this month.
Can't argue the series numbers, so lay it with the Badgers!
4♦ WISCONSIN
Matt Rivers
Take North Texas at home over Louisiana Lafayette.
The Mean Green have moved to the top of the West Division in the Sun Belt Conference and they have revenge motive for an earlier 2-point loss this season.
The fact North Texas only lost by two without having the services of Eric Tramiel, who was out with injury, leads me to believe the Mean Green should roll tonight.
Louisiana-LaFayette is just 1-9 SU on the road this year, while North Texas is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 Sun Belt games.
Take North Texas as they grab the win and cover.
4♦ NORTH TEXAS
Jeff Benton
I delivered another free-play winner Tuesday as Missouri (7♦) destroyed Colorado and easily covered a 15-point spread. I’m now on runs of 28-12, 18-6, 15-5 and 9-2 with plays that I’m giving away! For Thursday, I’ll make a rare trip to the Western Athletic Conference and back Louisiana Tech over Boise State.
Very comfortable laying this big price because Louisiana Tech (21-6 overall, 8-4 in the WAC) isn’t just better than Boise State (12-15, 2-10 WAC), the Bulldogs are better by a country mile. Just look at the Bracket Buster results for both teams on Saturday. Louisiana Tech went to Northeastern as a nine-point underdog and won outright 70-67. The Broncos hosted U.C. Davis and lost 82-74 … as a 12½-point home favorite! With that, Boise fell to 5-11 ATS in its last 16 lined games.
To understand just how bad Boise State is, consider this: Since the calendar flipped to 2010, the Broncos have lost 11 of 14 games. Those three victories came against Cal-State Bakersfield (a Division II team), as well as Fresno State and Idaho, two teams that are a combined 10-16 in WAC play.
Louisiana Tech started out the season cashing in 10 of its first 13 games – including a 79-64 win at Boise as a two-point road chalk – and though they hit an 0-6-1 ATS lull from there, the Bulldogs got back on track last week with consecutive spread-covers. That included a respectable 67-61 loss at first-place Utah State as a 12-point road underdog. And because La-Tech still has an outside shot at the regular-season WAC title and a legit shot at finishing second, you know we’ll get a fully focused effort from the Bulldogs, who beat Boise by 14 at home last year and are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings (6-0 ATS last six).
4♦ LOUISIANA TECH
Chuck O'Brien
Take the Cavaliers and lay the points at Boston in Thursday’s NBA action.
This is mostly a play against the Celtics, who are a home underdog tonight for a reason. Going back to the end of December, Boston is just 13-14 SU and 8-18-1 ATS. During this stretch, Boston has suffered losses to teams like the Clippers, Warriors, Bulls, Pistons and Hornets (without Chris Paul), and it has struggled to defeat opponents such as the Nets (twice), Clippers and Kings.
The Celtics can definitely lean on the injury excuse, as Kevin Garnett missed a long stretch of games and now Paul Pierce is hurt (he won’t play tonight). Even with a full lineup, Boston has had a lot of trouble with LeBron and the Cavaliers, as these teams have split their last 10 meetings. Yes, this has been a series dominated by the home team, which has won 16 of the last 17 battles, including nine straight wins for the Celtics in Beantown. However, as I just noted, those Celtics teams were better, healthier and younger than the unit that will be on the floor tonight.
Think about it: The fact Cleveland, which is 14-3 in its last 17 games, is favored tonight despite having lost nine in a row in Boston says everything you need to know about the current state of both franchises.
2♦ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS